Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

I would think the ability to handle higher pressure situations is one of the requirements for actually making MLB. There are plenty of players out there with sufficient baseball skills who, in the face of pressure, go to pieces faster than fine crystal in the hands of a UPS driver. And we have a name for these players - career minor leaguers…

 

So you're suggesting they're in the minors not because they're not talented enough, but because they're chokers. That seems like a questionable proposition too.

[Kimmi]

Agreed.

 

I would think the ability to handle higher pressure situations is one of the requirements for actually making MLB. There are plenty of players out there with sufficient baseball skills who, in the face of pressure, go to pieces faster than fine crystal in the hands of a UPS driver. And we have a name for these players - career minor leaguers…

 

Exactly. These players face a lot of pressure just trying to make it to MLB. The ones who make it have shown that they can withstand the pressure.

[Kimmi]

So you're suggesting they're in the minors not because they're not talented enough, but because they're chokers. That seems like a questionable proposition too.

 

Of course there are a lot of players who don't have the talent to make it. Think of all of the top prospects, who supposedly have all the talent in the world, but never make it. Might pressure have anything to do with that?

 

I think it's a very valid argument that you have to be able to handle pressure to perform well enough to get to the major league level.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course there are a lot of players who don't have the talent to make it. Think of all of the top prospects, who supposedly have all the talent in the world, but never make it. Might pressure have anything to do with that?

 

I think it's a very valid argument that you have to be able to handle pressure to perform well enough to get to the major league level.

 

It's all anecdotal, so we can believe whatever we want.

[moonslav59]

Of course there are a lot of players who don't have the talent to make it. Think of all of the top prospects, who supposedly have all the talent in the world, but never make it. Might pressure have anything to do with that?

 

I think it's a very valid argument that you have to be able to handle pressure to perform well enough to get to the major league level.

 

But then why wouldn't you believe some still handle pressure much better than others.

 

Maybe some player who does not handle the pressure well makes it by because of having enormous talent. He does okay, until high pressure situations expose his weakness.

 

I happen to not disagree, (I don't believe clutch or choke are skills or lack or skills), but it sounds like you are hedging your position.

[iortiz]

But your whole point was that he was worse because it was the pressure of the playoffs and the impossibility it could be anything else, especially just random bad luck.

 

yup, and it doesn't change my mind.

[moonslav59]

yup, and it doesn't change my mind.

 

You still have yet to answer why it has to be the pressure and the impossibility there could be any other reason, including just random bad luck.

 

I won't wait, because I've asked dozens of times with no on point response.

[iortiz]

You still have yet to answer why it has to be the pressure and the impossibility there could be any other reason, including just random bad luck.

 

I won't wait, because I've asked dozens of times with no on point response.

 

I thought I had mentioned before but I do it now again.

 

The way I see it, there's no other cause when you see fair samples like in POs or career high leverage situations. It's not a coincidence that some players do not perform well or at their standard level in those situations —like Kershaw.

 

There's a reason, for example, some good and even great RPs just can't close games. Pressure eats them alive. Some teams year after year look for closers within their staff by committee because some RPs simply can't close even with "good numbers". Remember how Koji got the closing job in 2013? After a committee process, the rest is history.

[moonslav59]

I thought I had mentioned before but I do it now again.

 

The way I see it, there's no other cause when you see fair samples like in POs or career high leverage situations. It's not a coincidence that some players do not perform well or at their standard level in those situations —like Kershaw.

 

There's a reason, for example, some good and even great RPs just can't close games. Pressure eats them alive. Some teams year after year look for closers within their staff by committee because some RPs simply can't close even with "good numbers". Remember how Koji got the closing job in 2013? After a committee process, the rest is history.

 

Again, saying it's "not coincidence" is not adding anything to your point. There is no evidence that proves or even implies it can't be a coincidence.

 

On top of that, your point is also dead wrong.

 

Kershaw has shown he does very well under pressure over a much greater sample size than his playoff one:

 

His career OPS against is an astounding .582. A number that is not easy to obtain and maintain, yet look at these sample sizes and numbers under pressure:

 

.502 2 outs RISP (853 PA sample size)

.547 Late & Close (712 PAs) There very definition of Clutch Pitching

.577 in September (1517 PAs)

.581 within 1 run (60115 PAs)

.582 RISP (1890 PAs)

.582 Tie game (3378 PAs)

.585 Men on Base (3482 PAs)

.599 High Leverage (1604 PAs)

 

His playoff sample size is under 750 PAs, yet you choose that much smaller sample size to "prove" it's all about him wilting under pressure, and not only that, it can't possibly be for any other reason, except he's not clutch.

 

Show me some proof that is the reason. Just showing he did poorly in the playoffs does not prove the reason- just the event.

 

You'd think some proof might be he also sucks under pressure during teh year, but in fact, the opposite is true.

 

You'd a think some proof might be that it can't be random, because randomly generated numbers would show his results are statistically impossible, yet the facts actually prove that not only is it possible, but it's right in line with what to expect.

 

Show me something other than he sucked under pressure, but only playoff pressure, so that proves he is not clutch.

 

[Bellhorn04]

You'd a think some proof might be that it can't be random, because randomly generated numbers would show his results are statistically impossible, yet the facts actually prove that not only is it possible, but it's right in line with what to expect.

 

This is the part that doesn't really make sense.

[moonslav59]

This is the part that doesn't really make sense.

 

If you fed Kershaw's numbers into a random generator and set the parameters to create 1,000 sample sizes of 189 IP (his actual amount), you'd get a range of results that would include some sample numbers that match nearly identically, what Kershaw actually produced.

 

Of course, many more would show better and much better results- some even better than his regular season results, but you would find some samples like the one he actually had.

 

Now, of course, there are not 1,000 Kershaw-type pitchers that have 189+ IP in the playoffs, so you cannot prove the actual results match evenly with computer generated results, but studies have shown when you enter all the regular season data and generate a random sampling of expected results, it matches up with reality.

 

The actual amount of pitchers who far exceed their regular season numbers in reality match up with the same amount in the randomly generated sample size, and same with barely better, the same, barely worse and much worse.

 

The random samples mirror the reality samples.

 

Did I explain it well enough?

[Bellhorn04]

If you fed Kershaw's numbers into a random generator and set the parameters to create 1,000 sample sizes of 189 IP (his actual amount), you'd get a range of results that would include some sample numbers that match nearly identically, what Kershaw actually produced.

 

Of course, many more would show better and much better results- some even better than his regular season results, but you would find some samples like the one he actually had.

 

Now, of course, there are not 1,000 Kershaw-type pitchers that have 189+ IP in the playoffs, so you cannot prove the actual results match evenly with computer generated results, but studies have shown when you enter all the regular season data and generate a random sampling of expected results, it matches up with reality.

 

The actual amount of pitchers who far exceed their regular season numbers in reality match up with the same amount in the randomly generated sample size, and same with barely better, the same, barely worse and much worse.

 

The random samples mirror the reality samples.

 

Did I explain it well enough?

 

I'd say you explained it about as well as possible.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's all anecdotal, so we can believe whatever we want.

 

Can anecdotes can be antidotes? Remember when Joe Torre batted Alex Rodriguez, the AL's reigning MVP, 8th in the batting order during the '06 playoffs? This wasn't a poster supporting opinion with stats researched from fangraphs, but a Hall of Fame manager. Maybe he was wrong, because as Big Papi likes to say: thaaaaa Yankees... lost.

[iortiz]

Again, saying it's "not coincidence" is not adding anything to your point. There is no evidence that proves or even implies it can't be a coincidence.

 

On top of that, your point is also dead wrong.

 

Kershaw has shown he does very well under pressure over a much greater sample size than his playoff one:

 

His career OPS against is an astounding .582. A number that is not easy to obtain and maintain, yet look at these sample sizes and numbers under pressure:

 

.502 2 outs RISP (853 PA sample size)

.547 Late & Close (712 PAs) There very definition of Clutch Pitching

.577 in September (1517 PAs)

.581 within 1 run (60115 PAs)

.582 RISP (1890 PAs)

.582 Tie game (3378 PAs)

.585 Men on Base (3482 PAs)

.599 High Leverage (1604 PAs)

 

His playoff sample size is under 750 PAs, yet you choose that much smaller sample size to "prove" it's all about him wilting under pressure, and not only that, it can't possibly be for any other reason, except he's not clutch.

 

Show me some proof that is the reason. Just showing he did poorly in the playoffs does not prove the reason- just the event.

 

You'd think some proof might be he also sucks under pressure during teh year, but in fact, the opposite is true.

 

You'd a think some proof might be that it can't be random, because randomly generated numbers would show his results are statistically impossible, yet the facts actually prove that not only is it possible, but it's right in line with what to expect.

 

Show me something other than he sucked under pressure, but only playoff pressure, so that proves he is not clutch.

 

 

I just showed you, he is a different pitcher in POs. The sample is fair reason why it is not random as you want point out.

 

If you want to believe otherwise, I have no problem, be my guest, but you won’t change a bit my point of view, sorry.

[iortiz]

This is the part that doesn't really make sense.

 

Yup. This random thing does not make sense to me either.

 

His numbers in POs are mediocre. It’s a fact and the sample is pretty fair to me. I would bet that he is one of the pitchers with more IPs in POs in the game. So if his sample is not fair, no one’s is, and POs numbers are meaningless by definition —which they are not.

 

OTOH He is one of the best in the game in regular season, no doubt.

 

Geez if Kershaw had been something close to the pitcher he was in regular season, Los Dodgers would have had at very least another ring.

Edited August 24, 2021 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Assuming numbers keep kind of the same, I think Kershaw will pass to the history of the game as one of the greatest who simply couldn’t handle pressure when it mattered the most —in POs.

[Bellhorn04]

Assuming numbers keep kind of the same, I think Kershaw will pass to the history of the game as one of the greatest who simply couldn’t handle pressure when it mattered the most —in POs.

 

He was saved to some degree last year, a little like Price in 2018.

 

Kershaw started Game 4 of the NLCS and lost, putting the Dodgers down 3-1 to the Braves. But they rallied and then Kershaw pitched 2 good games in the WS.

[iortiz]

He was saved to some degree last year, a little like Price in 2018.

 

Kershaw started Game 4 of the NLCS and lost, putting the Dodgers down 3-1 to the Braves. But they rallied and then Kershaw pitched 2 good games in the WS.

 

Yeah.

 

Remember 2018 against us? If he had been something close to what he was in regular season, we wouldn’t have won that WS.

 

PO is a different season or instance. The situation is another animal. You face the cream of the cream and with a lot of pressure. Only a few prevail regardless how great you are. Kershaw certainly is not that group.

[moonslav59]

I just showed you, he is a different pitcher in POs. The sample is fair reason why it is not random as you want point out.

 

If you want to believe otherwise, I have no problem, be my guest, but you won’t change a bit my point of view, sorry.

 

Nobody doubts his playoff numbers are radically different from his regular season numbers.

 

You keep acting like that is what is being debated.

 

What is being debated is why they are much worse. I'm just asking for one shred of evidence or just a plain old reason why you think it is beyond any doubt because he reacts poorly to pressure.

 

Just because pressure is present for many of the PAs in the playoffs, does not mean that has to be the reason he has done poorly in that 189 IP sample size.

 

Give me something other than , "Because that's the way it is, " or "the stats show he is a choke."

 

Something.

 

Anything.

[moonslav59]

Assuming numbers keep kind of the same, I think Kershaw will pass to the history of the game as one of the greatest who simply couldn’t handle pressure when it mattered the most —in POs.

 

In your mind, this is irrefutable.

[iortiz]

Nobody doubts his playoff numbers are radically different from his regular season numbers.

 

You keep acting like that is what is being debated.

 

What is being debated is why they are much worse. I'm just asking for one shred of evidence or just a plain old reason why you think it is beyond any doubt because he reacts poorly to pressure.

 

Just because pressure is present for many of the PAs in the playoffs, does not mean that has to be the reason he has done poorly in that 189 IP sample size.

 

Give me something other than , "Because that's the way it is, " or "the stats show he is a choke."

 

Something.

 

Anything.

 

It’s common sense moon. Pressure is the reason. No rocket science. Pressure is a mental thing. It is an intangible which tax you in key moments if you can’t handle it.

 

Keshaw simply can’t handle the pressure irradiated in POs, he just can’t. His mind blocks hence his performance is mediocre— call it “plain old reason” answer if you want lol

[iortiz]

In your mind, this is irrefutable.

 

Yup.

[moonslav59]

It’s common sense moon. Pressure is the reason. No rocket science. Pressure is a mental thing. It is an intangible which tax you in key moments if you can’t handle it.

 

Keshaw simply can’t handle the pressure irradiated in POs, he just can’t. His mind blocks hence his performance is mediocre— call it “plain old reason” answer if you want lol

 

So, even though all year long, players get hot and cold for all kinds of reasons or no reasons at all, but during the playoffs all these reasons disappear, and the only reason for doing well or badly HAS TO BE because a player reacts well or poorly to pressure.

 

This actually makes sense to you?

 

There can be no other factors involved, except pressure?

[iortiz]

So, even though all year long, players get hot and cold for all kinds of reasons or no reasons at all, but during the playoffs all these reasons disappear, and the only reason for doing well or badly HAS TO BE because a player reacts well or poorly to pressure.

 

This actually makes sense to you?

 

There can be no other factors involved, except pressure?

 

Thing is, as I said, POs are the only instances where pressure is at its highest while facing the cream of the cream.

 

If the sample is fair like Kershaw’s there’s no other reason.

[moonslav59]

Thing is, as I said, POs are the only instances where pressure is at its highest while facing the cream of the cream.

 

If the sample is fair like Kershaw’s there’s no other reason.

 

A player have 189 IP samples with wildly different results- good years, bad years, good parts of years, bad parts of years. Sometimes there are reasons like injuries, family distractions, poor defense behind them one year vs another or several reasons, some of which are unknown.

 

Can the only reason for good and bad results in the playoffs, even over a big sample size like 189 IP, be caused by anything else other than pressure?

 

I'm fine, if people believe pressure played a role, but you treat it like it's a fact and offer no evidence to support the position that his poor results were because of pressure and ONLY pressure..

[iortiz]

A player have 189 IP samples with wildly different results- good years, bad years, good parts of years, bad parts of years. Sometimes there are reasons like injuries, family distractions, poor defense behind them one year vs another or several reasons, some of which are unknown.

 

Can the only reason for good and bad results in the playoffs, even over a big sample size like 189 IP, be caused by anything else other than pressure?

 

I'm fine, if people believe pressure played a role, but you treat it like it's a fact and offer no evidence to support the position that his poor results were because of pressure and ONLY pressure..

 

Again in Kershaw's case the sample is fair and all-in-all he's been mediocre in POs. He's been in a lot of PO games. To me pressure is the main factor, yes.

 

My common sense says he just blocks in those environments.

[Kimmi]

But then why wouldn't you believe some still handle pressure much better than others.

 

Maybe some player who does not handle the pressure well makes it by because of having enormous talent. He does okay, until high pressure situations expose his weakness.

 

I happen to not disagree, (I don't believe clutch or choke are skills or lack or skills), but it sounds like you are hedging your position.

 

I think all players who make it to the MLB level handle pressure very well. Sure, there are slight differences to what degree, but I don't think it's anything that's significant. I think MLB players, for the most part, are very confident in their abilities, though they might lose that confidence from time to time, like Barnes seems to have currently done. But having that confidence goes along with being able to handle the pressure.

[Kimmi]

I'd say you explained it about as well as possible.

 

It's like if you did 1000 trials of flipping a coin 100 times, you would likely see an outlier where the # of heads and the # of tails is extremely lopsided.

[iortiz]

I think all players who make it to the MLB level handle pressure very well. Sure, there are slight differences to what degree, but I don't think it's anything that's significant. I think MLB players, for the most part, are very confident in their abilities, though they might lose that confidence from time to time, like Barnes seems to have currently done. But having that confidence goes along with being able to handle the pressure.

 

If Barnes does not close again because he he shits the bed again in a regular basis but does oks ,say, in a set up role, what will be the explanation?

 

Handling the pressure.

[Kimmi]

If Barnes does not close again because he he shits the bed again in a regular basis but does oks ,say, in a set up role, what will be the explanation?

 

Handling the pressure.

 

He handled the pressure very well during the first part of the season. He is not a choker. He has lost his confidence, which is not the same thing.