Game Day Thread 05.18.21 - Red Sox (E-Rod) @ Jays (Ryu)

[Maxbialystock]

Au contraire, I saw a pitcher (Ryu) who kept our hitters off balance all night. Up, down, in, out, changing speeds and putting the ball exactly where he wanted it. Every pitch had a purpose and he executed extremely well. He’s a very good pitcher and you saw it on display tonight.

 

He’s now pitched 12 innings against Boston this season and the Sox have scored in exactly 1 of them; they got 4 off him in one inning back in April at Fenway but they did little else; the other innings were pretty much a carbon copy of tonight.

 

Actually, I completely agree with you. Good pitching almost always trumps good hitting, and last night Ryu pitched with authority. He threw 7 shutout innings.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, I completely agree with you. Good pitching almost always trumps good hitting, and last night Ryu pitched with authority. He threw 7 shutout innings.

 

The funny thing is, though, that we tend to determine if it was 'good pitching' after the fact.

[Maxbialystock]

Anyway, ERod has a 4.70 ERA, but a 3.27 FIP. He's been unlucky. His walk rate has been cut in half. His velo is a little down, but not dramatically.

 

The only issue I'm seeing is that his slider and cutter has been worse this year, but he's throwing those two pitches more. Needs to fix his pitch mix maybe?

 

As I understand it, FIP excludes balls in play, which I think is dumb.

 

Last night, for example, ERod gave up 11 hits, including 4 doubles, which, according to FIP, are utterly meaningless and inconsequential. On the other hand, he had just 1 BB and 6 K's, so, according to FIP, he pitched a whale of a ball game. That is just crazy.

 

I personally think ERA already favors pitchers too much. For example, if a pitcher makes a really dumb error and that results in 3 runs, they are all unearned because his fielding is irrelevant. If a pitcher simply doesn't cover 1b on a routine grounder to the right, and the batter gets on base, that is counted as a hit.

 

So to me his ERA of 4.70 speaks volumes about where he is this year.

 

I think ERod's pitches this year have all been suspect. Last night, the changeup looked pretty good, but wasn't always in the best spot and probably wasn't used enough. His fastball and cut fastball are both very hittable unless outside the strike zone. The slider might be OK, but it breaks in on righties (the Jays had 8 in the lineup last night) and therefore needs to be low and/or hitting the edges of the strike zone.

 

In his defense, he was pretty darn good in 2019, and last year he had COVID, which affected his heart, which seems to me to be pretty serious. Coming back from something like that can't be easy. Didn't he also report a "dead arm" right before the season started?

[Bellhorn04]

As I understand it, FIP excludes balls in play, which I think is dumb.

 

Last night, for example, ERod gave up 11 hits, including 4 doubles, which, according to FIP, are utterly meaningless and inconsequential. On the other hand, he had just 1 BB and 6 K's, so, according to FIP, he pitched a whale of a ball game. That is just crazy.

 

I personally think ERA already favors pitchers too much. For example, if a pitcher makes a really dumb error and that results in 3 runs, they are all unearned because his fielding is irrelevant. If a pitcher simply doesn't cover 1b on a routine grounder to the right, and the batter gets on base, that is counted as a hit.

 

FIP is just another stat to throw into the mix. By definition it excludes balls in play.

 

With regard to your point about fielding errors by the pitcher, ERA is meant to measure pitching performance only, not fielding.

 

ERA is flawed for many reasons, of course.

[Maxbialystock]

They lost 8-0.

 

ERod could have given up 1ER over 8 innings and they still would have lost...

 

A very good point. I blame the pitching, but in fact the hitting was more to blame.

 

Overall, it just makes it a game to put into the past so you can focus on the future. And the beauty of MLB is that it's just one game out of 162.

[Maxbialystock]

FIP is just another stat to throw into the mix. By definition it excludes balls in play.

 

With regard to your point about fielding errors by the pitcher, ERA is meant to measure pitching performance only, not fielding.

 

ERA is flawed for many reasons, of course.

 

I like ERA and think FIP is just silly.

 

How about WAR? Right now ERod's is .3 for 1/4th of the season, which means that, if he stays on this track, his WAR will be 1.2 for the whole season.

[TylerD]

The funny thing is, though, that we tend to determine if it was 'good pitching' after the fact.

 

True, but good pitching is always the key to success..... Playoffs are not won by the best offensive teams (sure it helps) it's always pitching.... Sox had a very good offense last year and we weren't even close to playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I'm not a big fan if FIP, but it does tell a good story.

 

ERA is seriously flawed, especially for RP'ers due to not always having to get 3 outs per inning.

 

ERA+ or ERA- is an improvement, but I still like OPS against and WHIP about as much as ERA-.

[mvp 78]

Who cares about batting average, I want the batting mean!

[Maxbialystock]

Huge series with the Jays right behind us. Need this one badly

 

Yup. But last night wasn't so hot. Still 2 games to get back on track.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not a big fan if FIP, but it does tell a good story.

 

ERA is seriously flawed, especially for RP'ers due to not always having to get 3 outs per inning.

 

ERA+ or ERA- is an improvement, but I still like OPS against and WHIP about as much as ERA-.

 

I like ERA, old guy that I am, but will not disagree with your valuation of OPS against and WHIP.

 

You do have a point about starters vs. and relievers with respect to ERA. Starters normally see every batter twice and sometimes 3 times. Relievers only see them once. Thus a great reliever can get by with just 2 pitches.

 

But it's going to be hard to convince me that ERod's ERA of 4.70 somehow unfair. This year he lacks both command and at least one (and preferably 2 or 3) pitch that really works.

[iortiz]

As I understand it, FIP excludes balls in play, which I think is dumb.

 

Last night, for example, ERod gave up 11 hits, including 4 doubles, which, according to FIP, are utterly meaningless and inconsequential. On the other hand, he had just 1 BB and 6 K's, so, according to FIP, he pitched a whale of a ball game. That is just crazy.

 

I personally think ERA already favors pitchers too much. For example, if a pitcher makes a really dumb error and that results in 3 runs, they are all unearned because his fielding is irrelevant. If a pitcher simply doesn't cover 1b on a routine grounder to the right, and the batter gets on base, that is counted as a hit.

 

So to me his ERA of 4.70 speaks volumes about where he is this year.

 

I think ERod's pitches this year have all been suspect. Last night, the changeup looked pretty good, but wasn't always in the best spot and probably wasn't used enough. His fastball and cut fastball are both very hittable unless outside the strike zone. The slider might be OK, but it breaks in on righties (the Jays had 8 in the lineup last night) and therefore needs to be low and/or hitting the edges of the strike zone.

 

In his defense, he was pretty darn good in 2019, and last year he had COVID, which affected his heart, which seems to me to be pretty serious. Coming back from something like that can't be easy. Didn't he also report a "dead arm" right before the season started?

His SIERA which considers BABIP is 3.42.

 

While he has not been consistently lately, all his run prevention indicators (fip, xfip and siera) suggest that he hasn’t been lucky for whatever reason.

 

This is pretty encouraging, since these metrics suggest his ERA will improve when his BABIP normalizes and is expected to happen at some point. ie his stuff is still there and has been pretty good actually.

Edited May 19, 2021 by iortiz

[moonslav59]

I like ERA, old guy that I am, but will not disagree with your valuation of OPS against and WHIP.

 

You do have a point about starters vs. and relievers with respect to ERA. Starters normally see every batter twice and sometimes 3 times. Relievers only see them once. Thus a great reliever can get by with just 2 pitches.

 

But it's going to be hard to convince me that ERod's ERA of 4.70 somehow unfair. This year he lacks both command and at least one (and preferably 2 or 3) pitch that really works.

 

One major thing about RP'ers and ERA is this.

 

If he comes in with 2 outs, and only his batters who get on base and score count vs his ERA, how much easier is it to not allow his own runner to score, when he only needs to get 1 out not 3.

 

It's also easier when coming in with 1 out.

 

Too much luck is involved. ERA for RP'ers is was down on my list of useful stats.

 

ERA- or ERA+ is much better for SP'ers than just ERA, and it's pretty simple to understand.

[iortiz]

Geez his BABIP is way too high at 366 compared with his career numbers which is around 300 before 2021.

 

He’ll improve.

[moonslav59]

Geez his BABIP is way too high at 366 compared with his career numbers which is around 300 before 2021.

 

He’ll improve.

 

There's more to BAbip than just luck. Sometimes, the opps are hitting the ball hard for hits- not lucky soft hits.

 

Look at Line Drive% and Hard Hit% as compared to career or previous years.

 

ERod:

2021:

26% LD% (career 21.5% and under 20.1% his last 2 years)

27% Hard % (career 29.2%)

Kinda mixed messages, here.

 

People say Pivetta is lucky, and this streak is unsustainable. Yes, his .240 BAbip is much lower than his career .317, but look at how less hard hitters are hitting his pitches:

 

Pivetta

21.9% LD% (23.4% in 2020 and 25.2% in 2019)

26.2% Hard% (44.7% in 2020 and 39.8% in 2019)

 

How about Perez?

BAbip .316 (career .310) Hmmm...

 

25.2 LD% (22% career)

24.1% Hard% (31.4% career)

 

 

 

[iortiz]

There's more to BAbip than just luck. Sometimes, the opps are hitting the ball hard for hits- not lucky soft hits.

 

Look at Line Drive% and Hard Hit% as compared to career or previous years.

 

ERod:

2021:

26% LD% (career 21.5% and under 20.1% his last 2 years)

27% Hard % (career 29.2%)

Kinda mixed messages, here.

 

People say Pivetta is lucky, and this streak is unsustainable. Yes, his .240 BAbip is much lower than his career .317, but look at how less hard hitters are hitting his pitches:

 

Pivetta

21.9% LD% (23.4% in 2020 and 25.2% in 2019)

26.2% Hard% (44.7% in 2020 and 39.8% in 2019)

 

How about Perez?

BAbip .316 (career .310) Hmmm...

 

25.2 LD% (22% career)

24.1% Hard% (31.4% career)

 

 

 

 

BABIP considers all kind of balls in play, including LD. Also while LDs have more chances to touch the ground in fair territory, not all of them are hits.

 

All kind of balls in play have been hits more often this year for Rodriguez. All kind (FB, GB, LD). Whether the defense has something to do and/or randomness of where the ball has been falling is part of the considerations but the baseball has been falling in fair territory way more often this year for Rodriguez.

 

Sure, more LD% suggests more hits, but that 5% or so difference is not that relevant for an increase of 60 points in his 2021 BABIP. No way. You have to put in consideration the other 73% of the balls in play.

 

Said that, His run prevention indicators, specially SIERA (3.4) which considers BABIP, suggest that Rodriguez will improve his ERA at some point.

[moonslav59]

BABIP considers all kind of balls in play, including LD. Also while LDs have more chances to touch the ground in fair territory, not all of them are hits.

 

All kind of balls in play have been hits more often this year for Rodriguez. All kind (FB, GB, LD). Whether the defense has something to do and/or randomness of where the ball has been falling is part of the considerations but the baseball has been falling in fair territory way more often this year for Rodriguez.

 

Sure, more LD% suggests more hits, but that 5% or so difference is not that relevant for an increase of 60 points in his 2021 BABIP. No way. You have to put in consideration the other 73% of the balls in play.

 

Said that, His run prevention indicators, specially SIERA (3.4) which considers BABIP, suggest that Rodriguez will improve his ERA at some point.

 

5% is .050, you know- not .005. If someone's LD% goes up .050, it might have something(or a lot) to do with why the BAbip went up .060.

 

I'm not saying LD% accounts for all of the differentials, but I don't think just looking at wild discrepancies in BAbip without also looking at LD% and Hard hit% helps factor in how much be just good or bad luck.

 

Certainly every line drive does not fall for a hit- just as every soft hit ball is not an out, but if someone's LD% goes up, I'd expect his BAbip to go up, also.

 

BTW, if someone's LD% goes from 25% to 30%, it not increasing by 5%, it's actually going up 20%.

 

5/25= 20%

[Maxbialystock]

The funny thing is, though, that we tend to determine if it was 'good pitching' after the fact.

 

Actually, I disagree. I think you can see it's good while the pitcher is working. You can see where he's throwing it, what kind of break the ball has, and what effect that is having on the hitters.

 

Richards was not completely on tonight--4 walks and 7 hits--but those two K's in the 7th were dazzling.

[Maxbialystock]

Whitlock is just one of many Sox pitchers who either can't or won't keep the ball down.

[Maxbialystock]

Now it's 6-3 and we're just in the 7th inning.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, I disagree. I think you can see it's good while the pitcher is working. You can see where he's throwing it, what kind of break the ball has, and what effect that is having on the hitters.

 

That's a fair point. Sometimes pitchers are cruising like that and suddenly lose it, though.

[Maxbialystock]

That's a fair point. Sometimes pitchers are cruising like that and suddenly lose it, though.

 

Boy, do they. Either they can't throw strikes or they suddenly become very hittable. I believe the computer programs say "losing it" is most likely to happen the third time through the batting order.

[iortiz]

5% is .050, you know- not .005. If someone's LD% goes up .050, it might have something(or a lot) to do with why the BAbip went up .060.

 

I'm not saying LD% accounts for all of the differentials, but I don't think just looking at wild discrepancies in BAbip without also looking at LD% and Hard hit% helps factor in how much be just good or bad luck.

 

Certainly every line drive does not fall for a hit- just as every soft hit ball is not an out, but if someone's LD% goes up, I'd expect his BAbip to go up, also.

 

BTW, if someone's LD% goes from 25% to 30%, it not increasing by 5%, it's actually going up 20%.

 

5/25= 20%

 

Assuming all LDs have fallen in fair territory, only 26% of the 36% of the balls in play have been hits via LDs —i.e. 9/100 balls in play.

 

To put it in context and see the impact, 20% represent only 7/100 hits via LDs.

 

2 more hits in 100 balls in play via LD is not relevant in my book.

 

Said that, regardless the type of ball in play, it's expected the ball won't fall in fair territory that much in the future. It's not a theory, it's a fact based on a very large sample.

[moonslav59]

Assuming all LDs have fallen in fair territory, only 26% of the 36% of the balls in play have been hits via LDs —i.e. 9/100 balls in play.

 

To put it in context and see the impact, 20% represent only 7/100 hits via LDs.

 

2 more hits in 100 balls in play via LD is not relevant in my book.

 

Said that, regardless the type of ball in play, it's expected the ball won't fall in fair territory that much in the future. It's not a theory, it's a fact based on a very large sample.

 

Your numbers are wrong. You are converting percent of balls in play to percent of all ABs.

 

If all of the 5% in crease in LDs fell for hit, which I'm sure is not likely, that's a .050 increase in his BAbip.

 

I'm not saying it had that affect- only that it might explain some of the increase, and that it likely is not all "bad luck" that should even out eventually.

 

Maybe it's only a .025 affect and the rest is bad luck.

 

Maybe it's just crappy defense by short-ranged defenders.

[iortiz]

Your numbers are wrong. You are converting percent of balls in play to percent of all ABs.

 

If all of the 5% in crease in LDs fell for hit, which I'm sure is not likely, that's a .050 increase in his BAbip.

 

I'm not saying it had that affect- only that it might explain some of the increase, and that it likely is not all "bad luck" that should even out eventually.

 

Maybe it's only a .025 affect and the rest is bad luck.

 

Maybe it's just crappy defense by short-ranged defenders.

 

Nope. I'm just taking the 36% of balls in play which are actually hits. That's actually the universe of hits when baseballs are in play.

 

The important thing is that his BABIP hence his ERA will likely regress to his former career numbers.

[moonslav59]

Nope. I'm just taking the 36% of balls in play which are actually hits. That's actually the universe of hits when baseballs are in play.

 

The important thing is that his BABIP hence his ERA will likely regress to his former career numbers.

 

36 out of 100 balls in play are falling for hits.

 

If we assume every LD is a hit, and his line drive % went up from 20-25% (actually 19 to 27, now), that means his line drive balls hit went from 20 to 25 out of 100 balls hit not 100 PAs.

 

That's a 25% increase in LD% (5/20). If he used to have 20% LDs and a .300 BAbip, then the LDs accounted for 2/3 of all his hits allowed.

 

If we follow the theory that every LD is a hit, then we'd expect to see a 5% increase in hits, or a .050 addition to his BAbip (from .300 to .350).

 

Of course every LD is not a hit, and every GB is not an out. (BTW, ERod's GB% is down 8%.) I would argue maybe half his increase in BAbip is bad luck and half is he's pitching worse and allowing less GBs and more LDs.