May 7 Red Sox (ERod) @ Orioles (Harvey)

[Maxbialystock]

It's not all that important anymore, but it still has value and is "telling" in some regards over a long enough sample size like most recent 63 GS.

 

You ready to start today's game thread or are you using your own special formula?

[moonslav59]

You toss off the last sentence as though those 2 games are a piece of cake. Yes, you're only making a statistical point, but reality says "2 more games like his" won't be easy, even if the player were Devers or Bogie or JDM.

 

That said, Dalbec's 3 run dinger was huge and a kind of neat irony coming against these Orioles. Back when they were good and winning WS's, Earl Weaver was the manager, and his credo was great pitching and the 3 run dinger.

 

Of course 2 more game like last night won't be easy, but my point was about making definitive judgments on players with such small sample sizes where they are just 2 good games away from being decent or even fine.

 

Should players really be demoted, DFA'd or bashed over sample sizes so small, it only take 2-3 big games to radically change anyone's opinion.

 

Sure, I'm as frustrated as anyone else when a player is going through a tough 25-35 game stretch. It seems like a long time, and it is in many ways, but if we make rash decisions on struggling players, we may be doing so just before a red hot streak was about to begin. Of course, maybe the 35 game streak was really who that player is. That happens, too.

 

Not every player with a strong minor league history or even some major league success ends up turning around a slow start or bad stretch by being given an extra long leash.

 

Most managers and GMs don't make major decisions based on 70-90 PAs. I'm glad ours doesn't.

 

Another factor is determining if you have another option in the system that shows better promise and is actually ready to be thrown into live games after spending several weeks at the alt site taking batting practice and shagging fly balls.

 

We have several players on our roster that are largely unknowns. I looked at this season as one where we were not likely going to compete for a ring, so it seemed like the perfect time to give a few of these players a LONG ENOUGH look to be able to at least come close to a sample size where a definitive evaluation could be made.

 

Cordero: This kid has always shown a lot of talent- much of it raw and untested. His injury history forced a very spotty sample size spread over many seasons. I'm not sure when was the last time he even had 100+ PAs of near consecutive games played. I would think he might need 200-400 PAs of near solid FT play to know anything of value. This does not mean he gets that amount at the ML level, if the team is fighting for a playoff slot. Even I was saying we should send him to AAA to play everyday, if and until he works things out. Others were saying we should just cut him loose. (I'm not sure that one big game should mean sending him down is now a bad idea.) I'd like to see him play continuously, some where, for a long time, and if he shows promise, give him another shot on the big club. I don't get how anyone can think 73 PAs is enough, given his history, to give up on him.

 

Dalbec: This kid has done very well in the minors and during his short time on the Sox, last year. His OBP more than made up for the high K rate, but it's his power that got him here. The kid now has 96 PAs, this season and 188 overall. He has a .759 OPS with 10 HRs. That's a 30+ HR pace. He had 50 HRs in his last 1100 PAs in the minors and a .358 OBP. No way am I demoting this kid after 96 PAs. I might PH for him, if I had someone to PH. I might even gently move him towards a temporary platoon. I'm glad nobody has said we should DFA Dalbec, but demoting him would be wrong, even if he had not had that big game a couple nights ago.

 

Chavis: I felt like Chavis had shown enough in the bigs and the minors to earn a long look, at some point, this year. I'm not saying I have a ton of confidence he can or will earn a ML roster spot, but I just wanted to find out, once and for all, if he is a MLB player. Keeping him just at the surface and never really knowing if he can be or not might be, at best, the waste of a roster spot and at worst a risk of never getting the good to great value he might have. He may still get a long look, this year, but I'd hate to go into 2022 knowing nothing more about his ML abilities.

 

In general, I just don't get how some people are so quick to definitively judge a player, and it goes the other way, too, when a player starts off really well in a short sample size. Then, the player crosses them up, and they say "Oops," and go right back to doing it again with another player- over and over.

 

Sure, sometimes they end up being right. The player judged early on goes on to continue what their initial small sample size showed, but how many times can someone be wrong and yet continue doing the same thing over and over? I'm not trying to single any one poster out, except for the ghost, and I've been known to state definitive sounding opinions based on smaller sample sizes, too, but 5 weeks is a very small sample size. VERY!

 

Does anybody think the Sox are really the best team in MLB, right now? Hell, we've had over 1200 PAs and nearly 300 IP! Surely, that's a huge sample size, right?

 

NOT!

 

Who knows? Maybe Dalbec, Cordero and Chavis all bomb out at the ML level- big or small final sample sizes. There's a significant chance that happens, especially for the last 2 players listed, but to me, all 3 deserve a longer look than 70-90 PAs and 5 weeks of play after just going through a long winter and short season the previous year. Hell, even without those factors, these kids deserve more of a chance.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Thing I find funny with Jacko..... he’s obviously threatened by us.

 

No critic or sports analyst alive would have predicted the Sox to have the best record in baseball 30 some games into the season and first in the division..... yet here we are, and here the Yankees are, second last in the division. Yankees fans should be embarrassed that the Sox are on top of the division lol. Sure some of us die hards predicted a decent season and playoffs, but can anyone honestly say they thought we would have the number one record in all of baseball right now? Doubtful..... so whatever Yankees fans throw at us, I don’t really care. Jacko said a couple days ago, “Sox will be first for another week and then fall off” The fact that we are first at all is hilarious to me. Outside of a few Sox fans, nobody would have predicted this. A questionable bullpen, new additions to the rotation, no E Rod to start the season, Sale still injured.

 

Folks, this has been a magical carpet ride so far and I’m lovin it! The Yankees fans on my Facebook have never been so quiet lmfao it’s amazing. I’m sure once we slump, and Yanks get hot they will start talking again.....: but don’t let it get to you. I wasn’t expecting a ton this season and it has been fun as hell!!!! Let’s keep it going. Sports has been a good one for me. Oilers clinch a playoff spot too!! Bring down those bastard maple leafs and Canadiens and Jets!!!

 

Well said.

[moonslav59]

What this also illustrates is that in small samples, OPS in particular can be a distorted stat because of the inflationary factor. One home run yields an OPS of 5.000.

 

Indeed, and that's why a much larger sample size does not see a 69 point swing on any one game's numbers, and it's not like Dalbec went 4 for 5 with 2 dingers and a double. He just went 2 for 3 with a walk, a single and a homer.

[moonslav59]

Really happy for Dalbec.

 

He killed it last year and this spring, then ran into the buzzsaw of MLB pitchers who now had a "book" on him, as they used to call it.

 

It might not really be about pitchers learning how to get him out and him needing to counter adjust.

 

It could just be the kid is going through s lump, some personal issue or a nagging and unreported injury.

 

If it is "the book," he'll have to write a new chapter in his book and counter what they have been using to get him out. He has coaches and other players to help him do that. It doesn'y mean he'll ever find the answer, but I'm hopeful he will. He's been around longer than Devers.

[moonslav59]

Congrats to moonslav59 on the back to back wins. Please, please keep it up.

 

Richards today: 21.2 innings and 6 ER's in his last 4 starts (@ Texas, @ NY Mets, Toronto, @ Minnesota). ERA of 2.55 by my calculations

 

Thanks, Max, and I can only dream of having the mojo you brought to this board on the 9 game win streak that has electrified this board.

[moonslav59]

Yankee Stadium was "the house that Ruth built," so of course it was going to be friendly to the Babe. Also Gehrig.

 

To me Fenway Park is probably the most photogenic ballpark in MLB and "friendly" to no one, player or fan.

 

There was talk of a Dimaggio for Williams trade, whereby both players would be sent to a park seemingly more conducive to their traits.

[TylerD]

Have some mercy on the Leafs and their fans. They haven't won since 1967.

 

My poor brother-in-law is a Leafs fan, New York Jets fan and Detroit Tigers fan.

 

Omg. Poor bastard. I would check in on him once and a while. That’s a lot of punishment he is taking.

[TylerD]

Thanks, Max, and I can only dream of having the mojo you brought to this board on the 9 game win streak that has electrified this board.

 

Keep the good mojo going tonight moon. I’m at the in-laws tonight and doubt I’ll be around. Go for the trifecta!!! Did I spell that right? Anyway! Keep it going!!

[moonslav59]

Of course 2 more game like last night won't be easy, but my point was about making definitive judgments on players with such small sample sizes where they are just 2 good games away from being decent or even fine.

 

Should players really be demoted, DFA'd or bashed over sample sizes so small, it only take 2-3 big games to radically change anyone's opinion.

 

Sure, I'm as frustrated as anyone else when a player is going through a tough 25-35 game stretch. It seems like a long time, and it is in many ways, but if we make rash decisions on struggling players, we may be doing so just before a red hot streak was about to begin. Of course, maybe the 35 game streak was really who that player is. That happens, too.

 

Not every player with a strong minor league history or even some major league success ends up turning around a slow start or bad stretch by being given an extra long leash.

 

Most managers and GMs don't make major decisions based on 70-90 PAs. I'm glad ours doesn't.

 

Another factor is determining if you have another option in the system that shows better promise and is actually ready to be thrown into live games after spending several weeks at the alt site taking batting practice and shagging fly balls.

 

We have several players on our roster that are largely unknowns. I looked at this season as one where we were not likely going to compete for a ring, so it seemed like the perfect time to give a few of these players a LONG ENOUGH look to be able to at least come close to a sample size where a definitive evaluation could be made.

 

Cordero: This kid has always shown a lot of talent- much of it raw and untested. His injury history forced a very spotty sample size spread over many seasons. I'm not sure when was the last time he even had 100+ PAs of near consecutive games played. I would think he might need 200-400 PAs of near solid FT play to know anything of value. This does not mean he gets that amount at the ML level, if the team is fighting for a playoff slot. Even I was saying we should send him to AAA to play everyday, if and until he works things out. Others were saying we should just cut him loose. (I'm not sure that one big game should mean sending him down is now a bad idea.) I'd like to see him play continuously, some where, for a long time, and if he shows promise, give him another shot on the big club. I don't get how anyone can think 73 PAs is enough, given his history, to give up on him.

 

Dalbec: This kid has done very well in the minors and during his short time on the Sox, last year. His OBP more than made up for the high K rate, but it's his power that got him here. The kid now has 96 PAs, this season and 188 overall. He has a .759 OPS with 10 HRs. That's a 30+ HR pace. He had 50 HRs in his last 1100 PAs in the minors and a .358 OBP. No way am I demoting this kid after 96 PAs. I might PH for him, if I had someone to PH. I might even gently move him towards a temporary platoon. I'm glad nobody has said we should DFA Dalbec, but demoting him would be wrong, even if he had not had that big game a couple nights ago.

 

Chavis: I felt like Chavis had shown enough in the bigs and the minors to earn a long look, at some point, this year. I'm not saying I have a ton of confidence he can or will earn a ML roster spot, but I just wanted to find out, once and for all, if he is a MLB player. Keeping him just at the surface and never really knowing if he can be or not might be, at best, the waste of a roster spot and at worst a risk of never getting the good to great value he might have. He may still get a long look, this year, but I'd hate to go into 2022 knowing nothing more about his ML abilities.

 

In general, I just don't get how some people are so quick to definitively judge a player, and it goes the other way, too, when a player starts off really well in a short sample size. Then, the player crosses them up, and they say "Oops," and go right back to doing it again with another player- over and over.

 

Sure, sometimes they end up being right. The player judged early on goes on to continue what their initial small sample size showed, but how many times can someone be wrong and yet continue doing the same thing over and over? I'm not trying to single any one poster out, except for the ghost, and I've been known to state definitive sounding opinions based on smaller sample sizes, too, but 5 weeks is a very small sample size. VERY!

 

Does anybody think the Sox are really the best team in MLB, right now? Hell, we've had over 1200 PAs and nearly 300 IP! Surely, that's a huge sample size, right?

 

NOT!

 

Who knows? Maybe Dalbec, Cordero and Chavis all bomb out at the ML level- big or small final sample sizes. There's a significant chance that happens, especially for the last 2 players listed, but to me, all 3 deserve a longer look than 70-90 PAs and 5 weeks of play after just going through a long winter and short season the previous year. Hell, even without those factors, these kids deserve more of a chance.

 

One more thing on the need to "find out" what Dalbec, Chavis and Cordero can do: our three best prospects all play the same the positions and will be challenging anyone currently in those slots over the next few years:

 

OF: Duran

 

1B: Casas

 

2B: Downs

 

Make it easier on Cora and Bloom by finding out what we already have.

 

(Also, there's the option of moving Devers to 1B over the winter.)

[Bellhorn04]

Omg. Poor bastard. I would check in on him once and a while. That’s a lot of punishment he is taking.

 

Plus he has survived several bouts with cancer. And he doesn't whine about any of it. Good guy.

[Thunder]

Stayed up too late last night. Just took a little catnap. Sure this is another night game? I'm ready to go now.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks, Max, and I can only dream of having the mojo you brought to this board on the 9 game win streak that has electrified this board.

 

You've got double mojo going. 2 thread starts, 2 Sox wins and 2 Yankee losses.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

There was talk of a Dimaggio for Williams trade, whereby both players would be sent to a park seemingly more conducive to their traits.

 

This is true. I read that the trade talks went south when the SOX decided they also wanted Berra as part of the deal. I'm not sure the SOX were really serious about trading Williams.

Edited May 8, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

This is true. I read that the trade went south when the SOX decided they also wanted Berra as part of the deal.

 

Also the Sox had met their quota of Dimaggio's...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Also the Sox had met their quota of Dimaggio's...

 

Of course, Joe got all the press, but brother Dom was a very good ballplayer and many of his contemporaries claimed he was a better defensive CF than Joe.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Of course, Joe got all the press, but brother Dom was a very good ballplayer and many of his contemporaries claimed he was a better defensive CF than Joe.

 

In 1949 Dom had a 34 game hitting streak.

[moonslav59]

In 1949 Dom had a 34 game hitting streak.

 

He also spent 3 years (ages 26-27-28) in the military.

 

[moonslav59]

What if Marilyn had married Dom?

[Bellhorn04]

What if Marilyn had married Dom?

 

Dom was not much in the looks department. And his bat was smaller.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

He also spent 3 years (ages 26-27-28) in the military.

 

 

Dom's 11 year totals were 1046 runs scored, a .298BA, a .383 OBP, and an .802 OPS.

Edited May 8, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[moonslav59]

Dom's 11 year totals were 1046 runs scored, a .298BA, a .383 OBP, and a .802 SLG %.

 

.802 OPS and .419 SLG%

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

.802 OPS and .419 SLG%

 

 

 

My bad. .802 OPS. I need new glasses.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Dom was not much in the looks department. And his bat was smaller.

 

Williams was obsessed with fishing; Joe was obsessed with Marilyn until the day he died.

Edited May 8, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, Joe D was one of the cheapest bastards who ever lived. Never tipped, never picked up the tab at restaurants, and he never did anything for free. Hell, the Yankems had to pay him to appear in their old timers' games.

And in his 9 month marriage to Marilyn he treated her like crap. He wasn't a nice guy.

Edited May 8, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Bellhorn04]

Btw, Joe D was one of the cheapest bastards who ever lived. Never tipped, never picked up the tab at restaurants, and he never did anything for free. Hell, the Yankems had to pay him to appear in their old timers' games.

And in his 9 month marriage to Marilyn he treated her like crap. He wasn't a nice guy.

 

Was Ted a nice guy, would you say?

[iortiz]

Thing I find funny with Jacko..... he’s obviously threatened by us.

 

No critic or sports analyst alive would have predicted the Sox to have the best record in baseball 30 some games into the season and first in the division..... yet here we are, and here the Yankees are, second last in the division. Yankees fans should be embarrassed that the Sox are on top of the division lol. Sure some of us die hards predicted a decent season and playoffs, but can anyone honestly say they thought we would have the number one record in all of baseball right now? Doubtful..... so whatever Yankees fans throw at us, I don’t really care. Jacko said a couple days ago, “Sox will be first for another week and then fall off” The fact that we are first at all is hilarious to me. Outside of a few Sox fans, nobody would have predicted this. A questionable bullpen, new additions to the rotation, no E Rod to start the season, Sale still injured.

 

Folks, this has been a magical carpet ride so far and I’m lovin it! The Yankees fans on my Facebook have never been so quiet lmfao it’s amazing. I’m sure once we slump, and Yanks get hot they will start talking again.....: but don’t let it get to you. I wasn’t expecting a ton this season and it has been fun as hell!!!! Let’s keep it going. Sports has been a good one for me. Oilers clinch a playoff spot too!! Bring down those bastard maple leafs and Canadiens and Jets!!!

Well said Tyler.

 

This team still can improve. We have talent ready with hunger in minors. Sale will likely be ready by Summer and if he is healthy, this rotation will be spectacular. Not to mention we also could trade a couple of pieces to round the team for POs. Let’s not forget that this offense is the best in baseball thus far and the rotation has been more than solid.

 

Bloom knows what he is doing. He is Friedman’s boy after all.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Was Ted a nice guy, would you say?

 

Check out his history with the Jimmy Fund and his secret trips to Boston hospital to visit kids suffering with cancer. And how on one visit a young boy wouldn't let go of his hand, so Ted asked the nurse if he could borrow a cot and he spent the night with the youngster. So, yeah, compared to Joe D., Ted was a prince.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Check out his history with the Jimmy Fund and his secret trips to Boston hospital to visit kids suffering with cancer. And how on one visit a young boy wouldn't let go of his hand, so Ted asked the nurse if he could borrow a cot and he spent the night with the youngster. So, yeah, compared to Joe D., Ted was a prince.

 

Btw, Bell, seeing as you're a SOX fan, you should know this shite, instead of portraying the devil's advocate.

Edited May 8, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Bellhorn04]

Btw, Bell, seeing as you're a SOX fan, you should know this shite, instead of portraying the devil's advocate.

 

I wasn't, really. I don't know that much about the real Ted.