2021 MLB draft

[Hugh2]

I would be absolutely shocked if any of the top 10 picks don't sign. He's signing.

 

I would like to correct myself. Kavadas is an 11th round pick. So I would not be completely shocked if they failed to sign him, but I still think they sign him.

 

Odds are, they don't sign about 3 of these guys, and the odds are those guys are ones who were drafted 11-20. I think there's a small chance they don't sign Fabian, in which case any moved around for him can be thrown at someone else who I don't think will sign but perhaps they drafted as insurance if they did fail to sign Fabian. Like Peyton Green, Hood, Vela.

[mvp 78]

I would like to correct myself. Kavadas is an 11th round pick. So I would not be completely shocked if they failed to sign him, but I still think they sign him.

 

Odds are, they don't sign about 3 of these guys, and the odds are those guys are ones who were drafted 11-20. I think there's a small chance they don't sign Fabian, in which case any moved around for him can be thrown at someone else who I don't think will sign but perhaps they drafted as insurance if they did fail to sign Fabian. Like Peyton Green, Hood, Vela.

 

Usually, the guys they don't sign are HS seniors.

[mvp 78]

Here's what Mike Andrews posted on over at SoxProspects:

 

Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)

Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus

1 Marcelo Mayer $7,000,000

2 Jud Fabian $2,000,000

3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot)

4 Elmer Rodriguez $300,000

5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot)

6 Daniel McElveny $250,000

7 Wyatt Olds $150,000

8 Hunter Dobbins $150,000

9 Tyler Miller $150,000

10 Matt Litwicki $150,000

 

After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)

11 Niko Kavadas $400,000 ($275k towards cap)

13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap)

 

After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)

12 Christopher Troye

14 Jacob Webb

18 Phillip Sikes

 

Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,691,200

Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600

Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580

 

Super wicked early projected not to sign

Vela, Guerrero, Uberstine, and Hood could all sign if there is roster space. Green appears unlikely.

15 Payton Green

16 BJ Vela

17 Luis Guerrero

19 Tyler Uberstine

20 Josh Hood

 

There is no chance that Green signs.

 

I'm guessing that they sign 17 guys and Niko takes less money than Mike projects here.

[mvp 78]

Also, signing period ends on August 1.

[Hugh2]

Usually, the guys they don't sign are HS seniors.

 

Exactly.

 

Most teams want to sign their top ten picks, because if you DON'T sign one of those guys, that slot allotment is subtracted from your bonus pool. While it does happen from time to time it's relatively rare. The Sox draftees who are high schoolers 1-10 SHOULD sign. Mayer, Rodriguez, McEvleny.

 

After that, you can count on a few HS kids signing, sometimes they take a kid for insurance to see if someone else doesn't sign with the hope that they might be able to scoop them up. Or, to build a relationship etc etc. Sometimes, with some of these kids, they just want to play ball and start their professional careers and it doesn't take much to sign them. Like Brandon Howlett who signed for 180,000 in the 2018 draft 21st round.

 

I'd think with only 20 rounds, you're going to see teams drafting less and less players they can't sign, but I still think you will see 3-4 guys with most teams drafts who do NOT sign.

[Hugh2]

I think you're right on Kavadas too MVP, I think he takes less. I could never do what Mike Andrews does, but he's far from perfect.

[mvp 78]

I think you're right on Kavadas too MVP, I think he takes less. I could never do what Mike Andrews does, but he's far from perfect.

 

Yeah, at some point it's through the looking glass where I just don't want to go.

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Some interesting data on a pair of Red Sox draftees in this article. 17th rd. pick Luis Guerrero topped out at 96.3 & had a 64% whiff rate on his splitter in the Draft League & 19th rd. pick Tyler Uberstine's fastball grades out really well w/traits that can play up in the zone.

 

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/Breaking-down-the-Draft-Leagues-39-selection-in-the-21-Draft-1309672485

[moonslav59]

@IanCundall

Some interesting data on a pair of Red Sox draftees in this article. 17th rd. pick Luis Guerrero topped out at 96.3 & had a 64% whiff rate on his splitter in the Draft League & 19th rd. pick Tyler Uberstine's fastball grades out really well w/traits that can play up in the zone.

 

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/Breaking-down-the-Draft-Leagues-39-selection-in-the-21-Draft-1309672485

 

Good stuff, mvp.

 

Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Throughthefencebaseball.com

-Michael Dault

Best Pick: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)

 

Sleeper Pick: Nathan Hickey, C, Florida (FL)

 

Grade: A+

 

Overall: I loved Boston’s draft. This might’ve been their best draft since 2011 (minus Matt Barnes). Mayer fell to them and they couldn’t have called in the pick fast enough. Later, they took a chance on Jud Fabian from Florida, who they’ve scouted heavily the past couple years. One of my favorite picks was catcher Nathan Hickey out of Florida too. He was arguable Florida’s best hitter and is overlooked due to stud catching prospects Henry Davis, Harry Ford and Joe Mack.

[sk7326]

Keith Law on the Sox Class

 

Boston Red Sox

 

The Red Sox got the No. 1 player in the draft in southern California shortstop Marcelo Mayer (1), a left-handed hitter with a great swing, future power, and potentially plus defense at shortstop. He has strong wrists and forearms already and should add more strength as he gets older. I don’t think he has the most pure upside in the draft, but he has the best combination of upside and probability, thanks to his defensive skills and ability to play a premium position.

 

Florida outfielder Jud Fabian (2) has plus power and can really defend in center, but he has two major holes at the plate — fastballs up, and sliders down or away or down and away or pretty much anywhere at all — and made no adjustment whatsoever during the season. A legit centerfielder with sock is a first-rounder, but when you strike out 76 times, fourth-most of all SEC hitters this year, you’re going to slide.

 

Tyler McDonough (3) hit five homers in 2019 for NC State and three in the truncated 2020 season, then busted out for 15 this spring at age 22. A switch-hitter who’s played second, third, and center for the Wolfpack, McDonough can get way in the bucket on the left side, and likes the ball middle-up either way. He also had a terrible time with changeups this year. The power seems legit, but the hit tool is more suspect.

 

Puerto Rican right-hander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (4) is an extreme projection guy who won’t turn 18 until August; he has a good delivery and present command but will take some time to fill out and add velocity.

 

Nathan Hickey (5) is a left-handed hitting catcher who walked more than he struck out for Florida (by two) and has a fairly simple swing that should produce contact if not much power. He has good backup potential. Daniel McElveny (6) is a high school shortstop whose best tool is his bat, lacking a clear position but with the ability to move around the infield and maybe profile at second base.

 

Right-hander Hunter Dobbins (8) missed the spring while recovering from preseason Tommy John surgery, but prior to that would show three pitches, a fastball up to 92, a short curveball, and a changeup with a lot of action. Tyler Miller (9) is a small bet on big power but there’s not much else there.

[Noles_1335]

When will these top guys report to teams and any idea where some of the bigger names will sent to?

[moonslav59]

When will these top guys report to teams and any idea where some of the bigger names will sent to?

 

Gotta sign 'em first.

[mvp 78]

Gotta sign 'em first.

 

Signing deadline is 8/1. My guess is most of the signees, if not all, would go directly to the FCL.

[mvp 78]

Current signees:

3rd McDonough

6th McElveny 100k UNDER

10th Litwicki 100k UNDER

14th Webb

[moonslav59]

Nothing new...

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/07/boston-red-sox-draft-pick-signings-how-much-will-marcelo-mayer-jud-fabian-get-paid-tracking-every-bonus-before-aug-1-deadline.html

[mvp 78]

16th round BJ Vela has signed. Terms are not yet disclosed.

[Hugh2]

16th round BJ Vela has signed. Terms are not yet disclosed.

 

He probably got $125K

[mvp 78]

He probably got $125K

 

The only juco position player taken in the draft.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1418292672658386950

[mvp 78]

@chadjennings22

Mayer, by the way, is wearing a No. 10 Red Sox jersey for the signing. Lots of hugs and photos. Text from a team official: "I mean, we aren't exactly being subtle about this."

[mvp 78]

@chadjennings22

I'm told the Red Sox and Marcelo Mayer agreed on a contract at slot, which is -- I believe -- a little more than $6.6 million

 

Hubba wuh?

[mvp 78]

That's basically slot?

 

If they don't have to go over slot for him, they are going to sign everyone they want to.

Edited July 22, 2021 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Per MLB source, Mayer is signing for slot recommendation for No 4 overall pick.

[mvp 78]

Marcelo Mayer just hit one into the Red Sox bullpen. So there’s that.

[iortiz]

What’s this slot contract thing?

[moonslav59]

Good news.

[mvp 78]

What’s this slot contract thing?

 

Teams only get a set amount of money to sign their draftees. The first few rounds have picks that are given a slot value. The first overall pick gives the team like 8.5M towards their slot. The Sox had 6.6M for the 4th overall pick. If a player wants over slot, you have less money to give the other picks. If you sign a guy under slot, you have more money to spend on other picks. Some guys fall because they have a high $ demand. Some guys go earlier because they’ll take under slot.

 

For example, Jud Fabian in the 2nd round probably wants over slot because he was projected to go in the first round. Players are more likely to go back to school after being picked so they do have some leverage.

[Hugh2]

Also, if you go over you pay a 100% tax up to 5%. You can count on teams like the Sox paying the tax and throwing the extra money around. In a year like this, that's an extra $576,780 to play with. After that 5% you start losing first-round draft picks, without looking it up I don't think any team has gone past 5%.

 

If you fail to sign a pick in the top rounds you receive the next pick down the following year. So, for example; if the Sox can't sign Judd Fabian they will receive the #41 pick in next year's draft. The only caveat here is you have to offer the player at least 75% of the slot value.

 

I think the chances of the Sox signing Green just went up, but I still think it's more likely they can't sign him. Odds are a few of these guys left unsigned are going over slot and Fabian might take around $500-$700K of what's leftover. Green is going to want 1st round money to turn pro (reportedly). But I think they at least sign everyone else if that happens. 19/20.

[mvp 78]

Also, if you go over you pay a 100% tax up to 5%. You can count on teams like the Sox paying the tax and throwing the extra money around. In a year like this, that's an extra $576,780 to play with. After that 5% you start losing first-round draft picks, without looking it up I don't think any team has gone past 5%.

 

If you fail to sign a pick in the top rounds you receive the next pick down the following year. So, for example; if the Sox can't sign Judd Fabian they will receive the #41 pick in next year's draft. The only caveat here is you have to offer the player at least 75% of the slot value.

 

I think the chances of the Sox signing Green just went up, but I still think it's more likely they can't sign him. Odds are a few of these guys left unsigned are going over slot and Fabian might take around $500-$700K of what's leftover. Green is going to want 1st round money to turn pro (reportedly). But I think they at least sign everyone else if that happens. 19/20.

 

FO is saying they'll sign 13-14, so maybe they do intend on going over way over slot for Green. IDK. I think it's more likely they sign 18-19 and don't get Green.