2021 MLB draft

[moonslav59]

Does that mean you think Bloom won't extend Devers?

 

I mean, all who draw the line about longterm contracts also have to draw the line about losing homegrown stars eventually... right?

 

I hope we extend Devers. I have no idea what value Bloom puts on Bogey and Devers and how that value relates to FA market value.

 

I think we will extend Devers before he reaches free agency.

 

I think Bogey opts out and walks.

[notin]

Does that mean you think Bloom won't extend Devers?

 

I mean, all who draw the line about longterm contracts also have to draw the line about losing homegrown stars eventually... right?

 

It’s far from guaranteed whether either returns past their current deals. All any of us can really consider is current deals that are guaranteed…

[Hugh2]

I don't think drafting Mayer and Lawlar has any influence on the future of Bogaerts and Devers.

 

When talking about those guys you're effectively talking about drafting highschool age hitters. Many Highschoolers who are drafted are shortstops because that's where teams put their best player, they could easily end up almost anywhere else on the diamond.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Another source.

 

According to The Boston Globe's Pete Abraham, Leiter "very much" wants to play for the Red Sox.

 

However, there is concern that Leiter will return to Vanderbilt for his junior season and not sign with the team that selects him in this year's draft. If the Red Sox pick him, however, they should feel pretty confident that he'll sign, based on Abraham's report.

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/vanderbilt_ace_jack_leiter_reportedly_wants_red_sox_to_draft_him/s1_13132_35299391?utm_source=mb&utm_medium=email&mb_edition=20210703&mb_loc=right_h

 

 

However, if Leiter returns to Vanderbilt and enters next year's draft, he is looking at being selected by teams like the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Orioles, Twins, and Rangers. While Leiter is trying to use his Vanderbilt leverage to fall to the Red Sox with 4th pick, would the Rangers and Tigers be so foolish to think he means it?

Edited July 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

Another source.

 

 

 

 

However, if Leiter returns to Vanderbilt and enters next year's draft, he is looking at being selected by teams like the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Orioles, Twins, and Rangers. While Leiter is trying to use his Vanderbilt leverage to fall to the Red Sox with 4th pick, would the Rangers and Tigers be so foolish to think he means it?

 

I think it’s the opposite. The Rangers or Tigers would be fools to not call his bluff if they believe he’s the best player available there.

[moonslav59]

Draft just days away!

 

Fan graphs has this updated mock draft:

 

Mayer

Leiter

House

Davis

Cowser

Lawlar

Rocker

Edited July 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Here’s my top 6 mock. Final addition.

 

Lawlar

Leiter

Mayer

Davis

House

Watson

[notin]

I don't think drafting Mayer and Lawlar has any influence on the future of Bogaerts and Devers.

 

When talking about those guys you're effectively talking about drafting highschool age hitters. Many Highschoolers who are drafted are shortstops because that's where teams put their best player, they could easily end up almost anywhere else on the diamond.

 

Actually if you go back and look at most of the first rounds from 2007 through 2017, the overwhelming majority of high school shortstops who made MLB either played SS or 2B. The only exception I found was 2008 late first rounder Lonnie Chisenhall, who played 3B and OF for Cleveland and Pittsburgh. (And homered off David Price in the post-season!)

 

I might have missed someone, but the bulk of those who made MLB stayed in the middle infield...

[Hugh2]

Actually if you go back and look at most of the first rounds from 2007 through 2017, the overwhelming majority of high school shortstops who made MLB either played SS or 2B. The only exception I found was 2008 late first rounder Lonnie Chisenhall, who played 3B and OF for Cleveland and Pittsburgh. (And homered off David Price in the post-season!)

 

I might have missed someone, but the bulk of those who made MLB stayed in the middle infield...

 

Interesting, I think another good exercise would be to look up/down MLB rosters and see what position all the position players played in HS. That would be less work than looking at all 40 rounds, opposed to 1.

 

Regardless, Bogaerts isn’t going to influence the decision of Lawlar VS. Rocker or Mayer VS. Leiter. They will take BPA

[notin]

Interesting, I think another good exercise would be to look up/down MLB rosters and see what position all the position players played in HS. That would be less work than looking at all 40 rounds, opposed to 1.

 

Regardless, Bogaerts isn’t going to influence the decision of Lawlar VS. Rocker or Mayer VS. Leiter. They will take BPA

 

I only looked at first round high school shortstop picks, since that’s all that mattered in a discussion about the future of Mayer/Lawler/etc. But numerous players went on to play different positions from where they were drafted (and not just high school players).

 

In fact, I would bet that the starting lineup of every single MLB team has at least one player who was drafted at one position but is playing another. Heck, the Red Sox gave two just on the right side of their infield.

 

But still, I agree 100% that Bogaerts (or any current player) is NOT going to influence who the Sox draft…

[oldtimer]

It appears the draft will go as follow:

 

1. Marcelo Mayer (SS) to Pittsburgh as a foregone conclusion

 

2. Jack Leiter (RHP) possibly to Texas although his talk of returning to Vanderbilt may be enough of a threat to dissuade Texas

 

3. Jackson Jobe (RHP) to Detroit as they have signaled their preference strongly

 

4. Jack Leiter to Boston if he falls past Texas; If not the choice will be between Henry Davis or Jordan Lawler a good looking SS prospect. No bad choices.

[Hugh2]

I only looked at first round high school shortstop picks, since that’s all that mattered in a discussion about the future of Mayer/Lawler/etc. But numerous players went on to play different positions from where they were drafted (and not just high school players).

 

In fact, I would bet that the starting lineup of every single MLB team has at least one player who was drafted at one position but is playing another. Heck, the Red Sox gave two just on the right side of their infield.

 

But still, I agree 100% that Bogaerts (or any current player) is NOT going to influence who the Sox draft…

 

If you’re more likely to stick at SS you’re more likely to go higher in the draft, which explains those results. If you’re a HS shortstop who scouts think will move to Corner OF you’re probably moving to the later rounds. Maybe late 1st early 2nd if teams really think you can hit.

[Hugh2]

It appears the draft will go as follow:

 

1. Marcelo Mayer (SS) to Pittsburgh as a foregone conclusion

 

2. Jack Leiter (RHP) possibly to Texas although his talk of returning to Vanderbilt may be enough of a threat to dissuade Texas

 

3. Jackson Jobe (RHP) to Detroit as they have signaled their preference strongly

 

4. Jack Leiter to Boston if he falls past Texas; If not the choice will be between Henry Davis or Jordan Lawler a good looking SS prospect. No bad choices.

 

We shall see, everyone has changed their board several times the past few months. Jordan Lawlar was flown to Pittsburgh to meet with the team just two days ago. I think he’s still very much in play for pick #1.

[notin]

If you’re more likely to stick at SS you’re more likely to go higher in the draft, which explains those results. If you’re a HS shortstop who scouts think will move to Corner OF you’re probably moving to the later rounds. Maybe late 1st early 2nd if teams really think you can hit.

 

With the sole caveat being Matt Bush, who was drafted number one overall as a shortstop but had to move to pitcher. Then prison. Then back to pitcher…

[notin]

We shall see, everyone has changed their board several times the past few months. Jordan Lawlar was flown to Pittsburgh to meet with the team just two days ago. I think he’s still very much in play for pick #1.

 

 

Except notin…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I've read that the Tigers have Leiter as 1a and Jobe as 1b. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, which would shock many people, the Tigers will likely take him at 3. (and would definitely take him over Jobe). The only way the Tigers might not take Leiter is if Mayer is still available, but most people don't expect Mayer to be available at 3.

 

My new top 4 mock draft:

 

Pirates: Mayer

 

Rangers: Leiter

 

Tigers: Jobe, but there is a chance the Tigers could go Watson or House

 

Red Sox: Davis

 

Thus I now have Lawlar falling out of the top 4.

[oldtimer]

I've read that the Tigers have Leiter as 1a and Jobe as 1b. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, which would shock many people, the Tigers will likely take him at 3. (and would definitely take him over Jobe). The only way the Tigers might not take Leiter is if Mayer is still available, but most people don't expect Mayer to be available at 3.

 

My new top 4 mock draft:

 

Pirates: Mayer

 

Rangers: Leiter

 

Tigers: Jobe, but there is a chance the Tigers could go Watson or House

 

Red Sox: Davis

 

Thus I now have Lawlar falling out of the top 4.

 

There is the possibiity that Leiter would not sign with a losing team and go back to college.

[notin]

There is the possibiity that Leiter would not sign with a losing team and go back to college.

 

Possible. Or maybe he prefers a losing team since it might expedite his time in the minors.

 

Heck, he might refuse to sign with Boston because his dad was a Yankee. But all of this is just guessing about what a 20yo none of us have ever met will think. Honestly, whether it’s this year or next, Leiter is going to likely be a top draft pick, which means there will always be a good chance the team that drafts him is a losing team.

 

Now I am not so sure, but has there ever been any player who refused to sign because the team wasn’t any good? I know plenty have not signed because the team that drafted them did not offer enough money, but that’s not the same…

Edited July 8, 2021 by notin

[Hugh2]

When guys sign because they want more money they normally turning down a 800k or maybe a million. They were drafted after the first round and return to college and years later become a top draft pick (sometimes not, there’s risk in turning down the money). A great example of this was Alex Bergman.

 

The thing about Leiter is he’s not going to be turning down 1 million dollars, he will be tur i g down 6.5-8 million dollars, how much better than that can he do? Not much, but conversely he could blow his arm out and never be the same. Odds are astronomically high he signs. He’s posturing for a payday like these guys do every year.

 

I apologize, but I don’t buy into cooked up conspiracy theory’s that he can afford to not take money because daddy’s rich. Leiter is a top 4 pick, and he signs. Book it.

[Hugh2]

It’s funny, I’ve heard playing for a losing team expedites your time to the majors, and playing for a winning team expedites your time, which is it?

 

Personally I think is negligible but I suppose if I had to chose a side I’d say playing for a s***** team gets you there. Small market teams don’t have the same budget to fill out a 25 man so they’re more likely to bring up a top prospect young where’s a team like Boston will wait, or have them as an up/down guy for a year.

 

But if a guy can play, and forces a teams hand it doesn’t matter. Think Mookie Betts

[Hugh2]

If Robo umps are coming, I think one would have to take a long hard look at Davis if he’s still there at #4

[notin]

When guys sign because they want more money they normally turning down a 800k or maybe a million. They were drafted after the first round and return to college and years later become a top draft pick (sometimes not, there’s risk in turning down the money). A great example of this was Alex Bergman.

 

The thing about Leiter is he’s not going to be turning down 1 million dollars, he will be tur i g down 6.5-8 million dollars, how much better than that can he do? Not much, but conversely he could blow his arm out and never be the same. Odds are astronomically high he signs. He’s posturing for a payday like these guys do every year.

 

I apologize, but I don’t buy into cooked up conspiracy theory’s that he can afford to not take money because daddy’s rich. Leiter is a top 4 pick, and he signs. Book it.

 

 

While I agree, at least we’ve all seen college players stay an extra year because the parents were rich, like with the 2006-2007 Florida Gators hoops team that had Al Horford and Joakim Noah…

[Hugh2]

While I agree, at least we’ve all seen college players stay an extra year because the parents were rich, like with the 2006-2007 Florida Gators hoops team that had Al Horford and Joakim Noah…

 

I mean, there’s exceptions to every norm. It’s not inconceivable that Leiter is drafted and doesn’t sign. But I’d be surprised if that happens. He likely signs if he goes 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Leiter will sign. If he returns to Vanderbilt and reenters the draft next year, he is looking at another group of lousy teams: the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Orioles, Rangers. And so he accomplishes nothing by turning down the Rangers or Tigers this year. Edited July 8, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

If Robo umps are coming, I think one would have to take a long hard look at Davis if he’s still there at #4

 

It's not just about pitch-framing. It's also blocking wild pitches, avoiding passed balls and to me, getting the most out of the staff- not necessarily just by calling a good game.

 

If the guy can hit, it won't matter where he plays.

[moonslav59]

Leiter is gong to sign. If he returns to Vanderbilt and reenters the draft next year, he is looking at another group of lousy teams: the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Orioles, Rangers. And so he accomplishes nothing by turning down the Rangers or Tigers this year.

 

At their pace, maybe the Yankees pick third, next year.

 

(LOL)

[moonslav59]

MLB.com projects:

 

Mayer

Leiter

Lawlar

Watson

Davis

Rocker

Jobe

House

[notin]

Leiter will sign. If he returns to Vanderbilt and reenters the draft next year, he is looking at another group of lousy teams: the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Orioles, Rangers. And so he accomplishes nothing by turning down the Rangers or Tigers this year.

 

Any player expected to be among the top picks is going to be selected by a bad team. That’s how the draft works…

[moonslav59]

Any player expected to be among the top picks is going to be selected by a bad team. That’s how the draft works…

 

My guess is any of these top players will be thrilled to be picked by the Sox (not a bad team).

[notin]

MLB.com projects:

 

Mayer

Leiter

Lawlar

Watson

Davis

Rocker

Jobe

House

 

 

So far, the talking heads have the Sox selecting either Davis, Leiter, Lawler, Watson, Jobe, and probably someone else. Considering Bloom took Nick Yorke last year, maybe we need to write off all of the obvious candidates and count on him doing something off script. Madden? Fabian? Who else would you suspect he would never pick?

 

Sticking with Rocker here for two reasons 1. Bloom is unpredictable 2. I'm stubborn…