A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

So, we go with Plawecki, Grullon & Wong or pick up a catcher?

 

Who is the Charlie Morton of this winter's FA class?

 

The Sox could try to get Keibert Ruiz from the Dodgers, who already have a young pr-arb catcher in MLB blocking him in Will Smith. That would probably cost the Sox Triston Casas, if the Dodgers had any interest.

 

Casas has an .824 OPS as a 19yo playing in A-ball. Ruiz has posted a .772 OPS across all levels of MiLB through his age 21 season.

 

Prior to the 2020 season, Casas was ranked #70 by Baseball America and Ruiz was ranked #81. So this is actually a very fair trade. (And yes, it works out as a one for one on BTV with Ruiz having a surplus vaue of $23.4 million and Casas having a surplus value of $22.2 million.)

 

These "top prospect for top prospect" deals are rare, but this move would help the Dodgers by opening another spot on their 40 man roster, which could be important given their farm system, while dealing from a position of depth. The Soxwould get an elite propsect at one of the tougher positions to fill. As Casas is not a Bloom guy, not sure what his opinion of Triston's future is...

[mvp 78]

The Sox could try to get Keibert Ruiz from the Dodgers, who already have a young pr-arb catcher in MLB blocking him in Will Smith. That would probably cost the Sox Triston Casas, if the Dodgers had any interest.

 

Casas has an .824 OPS as a 19yo playing in A-ball. Ruiz has posted a .772 OPS across all levels of MiLB through his age 21 season.

 

Prior to the 2020 season, Casas was ranked #70 by Baseball America and Ruiz was ranked #81. So this is actually a very fair trade. (And yes, it works out as a one for one on BTV with Ruiz having a surplus vaue of $23.4 million and Casas having a surplus value of $22.2 million.)

 

These "top prospect for top prospect" deals are rare, but this move would help the Dodgers by opening another spot on their 40 man roster, which could be important given their farm system, while dealing from a position of depth. The Soxwould get an elite propsect at one of the tougher positions to fill. As Casas is not a Bloom guy, not sure what his opinion of Triston's future is...

 

Well, the brought Casas to PAW during the year, so I think he values him a little.

[notin]

The Rays throw some very mediocre guys out there at C. I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Plawecki as the starter. He's looked decent this year. He'll be fine even when his bat comes down to earth.

 

Plawecki is a good backup to have, but I'm not sold on him being a guy I want to see get 450-500 plate appearances.

 

Apparently the Rays did have some interest in Vazquez as recently as 3 weeks ago...

[notin]

Well, the brought Casas to PAW during the year, so I think he values him a little.

 

As he should. But does he think he is a future MLB piece and can Bloom afford to hold on to his better trade chips if he needs to move one of them to improve the club as soon as next season?

 

And let's face it, 1B types who can hit are not exactly the hardest things to find...

[mvp 78]

As he should. But does he think he is a future MLB piece and can Bloom afford to hold on to his better trade chips if he needs to move one of them to improve the club as soon as next season?

 

And let's face it, 1B types who can hit are not exactly the hardest things to find...

 

I think we'll find out this offseason.

[moonslav59]

I'm probably higher on Wong than he deserves, but I'm wondering if we might just go with what we have at catcher, without Vaz.

 

If we end up being in the race, maybe we add a catcher mid season. I know that's not ideal, as we'd want a catcher to build a relationship with the staff before the playoffs.

 

To me, we need pitching, pitching, pitching, centerfield.

 

[moonslav59]

The Rays throw some very mediocre guys out there at C. I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Plawecki as the starter. He's looked decent this year. He'll be fine even when his bat comes down to earth.

 

The Rays usually, and rightfully so, look for defensive catchers.

 

I don't see Vaz fitting that profile, but reports said they wanted Vaz.

[mvp 78]

Vaz is number 1 dWAR this year.

 

Plawecki is middle of the road.

 

Plawecki is one of the worst framers in MLB. When are those robot umps coming again?

[mvp 78]

Both Rays catchers are worse than Plawecki in fWAR this year. The are both almost as bad at framing as Plawecki is.

 

Bad defense AND bad offense is no way to go through life, son!

[mvp 78]

@TheAthleticMLB

The Players Association has informed MLB that it will not allow clubs to include 40-man players in their offseason instructional camps.

 

Looks like Aybar and Wilson will be getting an extended break rather than much needed reps. Not good!

[moonslav59]

Vaz is number 1 dWAR this year.

 

Plawecki is middle of the road.

 

Plawecki is one of the worst framers in MLB. When are those robot umps coming again?

 

At the risk of sounding hypocritical, I do not trust dWAR numbers for catchers. I'm not big on SB% being used as the main tool, either.

 

CERA is number 1, and for many years I have documented Vaz struggles in this area when compared to other catchers on the team with the same pitchers (mostly starters).

 

Pitch framing and blocking tough pitches is probably second, and Vaz seemed to have more than his share of PB+WP over the years.

 

Maybe he's improved, this year. VTek was not viewed as a great defender until after age 29-30.

 

Maybe the Ray use metrics that show Vaz as a plus on defense. I tend to think of him as a minus on D and a plus on O, when compared to other catchers.

[moonslav59]

@TheAthleticMLB

The Players Association has informed MLB that it will not allow clubs to include 40-man players in their offseason instructional camps.

 

Looks like Aybar and Wilson will be getting an extended break rather than much needed reps. Not good!

 

Aybar may be not be on the 40 man roster after we add rule 5's and free agents.

 

Wilson is no big deal, except for our super short OF depth, right now.

[notin]

I'm probably higher on Wong than he deserves, but I'm wondering if we might just go with what we have at catcher, without Vaz.

 

If we end up being in the race, maybe we add a catcher mid season. I know that's not ideal, as we'd want a catcher to build a relationship with the staff before the playoffs.

 

To me, we need pitching, pitching, pitching, centerfield.

 

 

The Dodgers tried Wong at a couple positions other than catcher. I'm not sure if this was because he was a lousy catcher or because they had great organizational depth at the position with Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz, and the one some scouts seem to think the most of, 18yo Diego Cartaya, who should absolutely be introducing himself to people by saying "Hello. My name is Diego Cartaya. You killed my father. Prepare to die." And if he isn't, he either needs to stay in A-ball until he does or be immediately DFA'd. Because that lack of proper behavior is just not to be tolerated.

 

But with Wong, he was also tried at 2B and 3B. But again, the Dodgers have a few good prospects at these positions as well, not to mention current rookie Gavin Lux. So is Wong defensively inept anywhere? Or is he good everywhere? Does he really have a position he can handle, or is he really someone who can play multiple positions passably and has a decent hit tool, making him a New and Improved version of Michael Chavis, with Better Hitting and Catcher Eligibility?

[mvp 78]

The Dodgers tried Wong at a couple positions other than catcher. I'm not sure if this was because he was a lousy catcher or because they had great organizational depth at the position with Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz, and the one some scouts seem to think the most of, 18yo Diego Cartaya, who should absolutely be introducing himself to people by saying "Hello. My name is Diego Cartaya. You killed my father. Prepare to die." And if he isn't, he either needs to stay in A-ball until he does or be immediately DFA'd. Because that lack of proper behavior is just not to be tolerated.

 

But with Wong, he was also tried at 2B and 3B. But again, the Dodgers have a few good prospects at these positions as well, not to mention current rookie Gavin Lux. So is Wong defensively inept anywhere? Or is he good everywhere? Does he really have a position he can handle, or is he really someone who can play multiple positions passably and has a decent hit tool, making him a New and Improved version of Michael Chavis, with Better Hitting and Catcher Eligibility?

 

The guys at SoxProspects said recently that they were a little hasty when they originally called him a UTIL guy. From what they have heard from scouts in the organization is that he's going to be a catcher first and foremost.

[mvp 78]

Anyway, here's a video of Wong crushing a pitch from the other Connor.

 

https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1306332064388714496

[notin]

The guys at SoxProspects said recently that they were a little hasty when they originally called him a UTIL guy. From what they have heard from scouts in the organization is that he's going to be a catcher first and foremost.

 

He did crush in 163 PA's in AA ball. If they think of him as a catcher, I doubt he is starting in April, 2021 in Boston. So maybe they just pursue a stopgap if they deal Vazquez. James McCann or Tyler Flowers?

[mvp 78]

He did crush in 163 PA's in AA ball. If they think of him as a catcher, I doubt he is starting in April, 2021 in Boston. So maybe they just pursue a stopgap if they deal Vazquez. James McCann or Tyler Flowers?

 

I don't think we see Wong in BOS at all next season.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we see Wong in BOS at all next season.

 

He's 24 but only has about 1,000 PAs in pro ball.

 

His .852 OPS jumps out at me, and he was even better in AA (.997).

 

It's his defense and lack of long term experience at any position that will keep him in the minors for most or all of 2021, unless he can DH in Boston.

 

He could be viewed as midseason ML depth for 2021.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather they went extra slow on him to fully develop his defense. I don't want him overwhelmed when he finally gets the call.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather they went extra slow on him to fully develop his defense. I don't want him overwhelmed when he finally gets the call.

 

Agreed.

[Kimmi]

What are the chances the Red Sox do not tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off the lefthander's 2020 salary of $8.3 million? If the Sox do not tender Rodriguez a contract, will Rodriguez look elsewhere instead of negotiating a lower salary with the Sox? Does Rodriguez harbor ill feelings after losing in arbitration last offseason when the panel went with the team's $8.3 million figure over his proposal of $8.975 million? MLB Trade Rumors had projected Rodriguez with a 2020 salary of $9.5 million coming off his 19-win season.

 

Rodriguez is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2021 season.

 

The offseason could be more interesting than the 2020 season.

 

Or not.

 

I'm hearing today that the Sox expect him to be a part of the rotation next season, so I'm expecting him to be back, one way or the other. I just wouldn't depend on him to carry a lot of innings.

 

I don't think any player is happy about sitting through an arbitration hearing. Whether ERod harbors ill feelings or not, I don't know. I have not heard anything to suggest that he does. That said, I thought it was kind of silly to haggle over such a small amount.

[Kimmi]

I'd rather they went extra slow on him to fully develop his defense. I don't want him overwhelmed when he finally gets the call.

 

Don't pull a Swihart on him!

[moonslav59]

They'll only be one Swihart.

[oldtimer]

Latest story has Duran up sometime in 2021 and the interest in making an offer to JBJ but no certainty he would take it but rather he would weigh his options. That makes sense to me as he has given good time to the sox and should see what is best for his family. There is talk of pursuing Springer if Bradley goes, but that may be a pipe dream as A) Springer will be expensive, and The Astros may decide to keep him and make an acceptable offer.

 

The article also says Beni is entrenched, something I don't believe. we'll see on that one.

 

Bloom has done well so far and will continue to make decisions for which will improve the club.

[oldtimer]

Ian Brown is raising the question of Devers defense at third and mentioning Dalbec as a solid 3rd base prospect. Clear to see his meaning. With that switch, if it were to happen, there would be no need for a left handed platoon player at 1st because Devers pat is needed in the lineup anytime he is healthy enough to play. Decisions of this sort should be made before bringing in other players.

[moonslav59]

Ian Brown is raising the question of Devers defense at third and mentioning Dalbec as a solid 3rd base prospect. Clear to see his meaning. With that switch, if it were to happen, there would be no need for a left handed platoon player at 1st because Devers pat is needed in the lineup anytime he is healthy enough to play. Decisions of this sort should be made before bringing in other players.

 

Usually, I'd worry about messing with Devers by moving him, but the kid seems to not be fazed by anything.

 

Apparently Dalbec is already a plus defender at 3B, so the switch makes sense, but I'd hold off until we're sure Dalbec's offense is for real. Let's see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him.

 

It might not hurt to give Devers some reps at 1B this winter and next spring, but I also wouldn't want to mess with his growth at 3B. He's shown extended periods of plus defense there. He's still young enough to smooth over the bumps.

 

It's a tough choice,

[oldtimer]

Usually, I'd worry about messing with Devers by moving him, but the kid seems to not be fazed by anything.

 

Apparently Dalbec is already a plus defender at 3B, so the switch makes sense, but I'd hold off until we're sure Dalbec's offense is for real. Let's see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him.

 

It might not hurt to give Devers some reps at 1B this winter and next spring, but I also wouldn't want to mess with his growth at 3B. He's shown extended periods of plus defense there. He's still young enough to smooth over the bumps.

 

It's a tough choice,

 

I agree with your thinking and it is still early to assess what Dalbec can do offensively when pitchers find weaknesses and exploit them. If he can adjust, his power will carry him forward even without a high on base percentage. There is the question of how the roster gets constructed, as it would be different with Dalbec at third and Devers at first. Just one of the dilemmas facing Bloom as the general manager.

[notin]

I agree with your thinking and it is still early to assess what Dalbec can do offensively when pitchers find weaknesses and exploit them. If he can adjust, his power will carry him forward even without a high on base percentage. There is the question of how the roster gets constructed, as it would be different with Dalbec at third and Devers at first. Just one of the dilemmas facing Bloom as the general manager.

 

I like the idea of Devers at 1st and Dalbec at 3rd. Even if Dalbec struggles immensely with the bat - which is very possible - at least he can earn a minimum wage paycheck with his glove at 3rd...

[mvp 78]

I like the idea of Devers at 1st and Dalbec at 3rd. Even if Dalbec struggles immensely with the bat - which is very possible - at least he can earn a minimum wage paycheck with his glove at 3rd...

 

Devers also has a lot of athleticism. His defensive issues are less about his glove and more about his arm. He could actually be a very good fielding 1B.

[mvp 78]

Usually, I'd worry about messing with Devers by moving him, but the kid seems to not be fazed by anything.

 

Apparently Dalbec is already a plus defender at 3B, so the switch makes sense, but I'd hold off until we're sure Dalbec's offense is for real. Let's see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him.

 

It might not hurt to give Devers some reps at 1B this winter and next spring, but I also wouldn't want to mess with his growth at 3B. He's shown extended periods of plus defense there. He's still young enough to smooth over the bumps.

 

It's a tough choice,

 

Dalbec is not a "plus defender" at 3B. By all accounts, he's average.