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Posted
I'd be happy with him just replicating 2018. He was a 4.4 fWAR guy that year, which is career accumulated total.
At his current salary, that would be a bargain.
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Posted (edited)

While watching the 1970 World Series on MLB, I noticed the Reds put a shift on O's lefty Boog Powell (the original) -- three guys on the right side of the infield. They pitched him outside hoping he'd roll over and pull a grounder or worst-case, just take a single to the opposite field instead of crank one. Instead, Powell homered down the leftfield line. This is why we didn't see many shifts 50 years ago, because batters could bat.

 

It seemed like Benintendi lost a hit a week last year ripping a one-hopper up the middle right at an infielder standing behind second base; there has to be a good reason defenders didn't play there for an entire century. Athletes today may be bigger/stronger/faster but in some ways they're not as good at being baseball players. What -- Beni and everyone else can't practice going oppo until it's part of their approach? Or at least push a few bunts down the line for gift doubles?

 

When some manager finally orders his hitters to practice beating shifts, will he be called an innovator or a throwback?

 

Edit: when we coach young players to hit, we always stress hitting the other way in practice -- mainly because it keeps their heads down (when kids try to pull, they invariably pull their heads and miss the ball... just like many modern pros).

Edited by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
Community Moderator
Posted
Yesterday, JBJ was working on bunting down the line to beat the shift. We'll have to see if Roenicke has his hitters do that more often.
Community Moderator
Posted

@byJulianMack

Benintendi has really been locked in during this summer camp. Leads off with a double up against the green monster against Workman.

Posted
Yesterday, JBJ was working on bunting down the line to beat the shift. We'll have to see if Roenicke has his hitters do that more often.

 

That's a double against Tampa

Posted
@byJulianMack

Benintendi has really been locked in during this summer camp. Leads off with a double up against the green monster against Workman.

 

We need him. Without Betts, who is leading off? I don't think he should, but I know he has before

Community Moderator
Posted
We need him. Without Betts, who is leading off? I don't think he should, but I know he has before

 

Beni did quite a bit of leading off in Spring Training. On the games I found that Beni sat, Pillar was leading off.

Posted
Beni did quite a bit of leading off in Spring Training. On the games I found that Beni sat, Pillar was leading off.

 

Oh yes, I forgot about Kevin "Not Millar" Pillar. That's what I get for not paying attention to ST

Community Moderator
Posted
Oh yes, I forgot about Kevin "Not Millar" Pillar. That's what I get for not paying attention to ST

 

He's going to be solid and has a tendency to get really hot for short stretches every year.

Community Moderator
Posted
That's a double against Tampa

 

Unless the player is Big Papi, I think it's more valuable for a guy like JBJ to just try to push one down the line every AB for a week straight until the shift stops.

Posted
Unless the player is Big Papi, I think it's more valuable for a guy like JBJ to just try to push one down the line every AB for a week straight until the shift stops.

 

He could be a .300 hitter!

Old-Timey Member
Posted
@byJulianMack

Benintendi has really been locked in during this summer camp. Leads off with a double up against the green monster against Workman.

 

It's the hair!

Old-Timey Member
Posted

On the topic of lineups, RedSoxStats used the lineup optimization tool based on players' 2020 projections. Here's what the tool came up with:

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1282707812896903170/photo/1

 

 

Some interesting observations:

 

1. The Sox could score over 5.6 runs/game. In a regular 162 game season, that would be over 900 runs.

 

2. In not one of the top 30 optimal lineups is JD Martinez batting 3rd. **Pay attention Roenicke**

 

3. Verdugo batting lead off? An interesting idea, though that's a lot of pressure to put on a young kid.

Posted
On the topic of lineups, RedSoxStats used the lineup optimization tool based on players' 2020 projections. Here's what the tool came up with:

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1282707812896903170/photo/1

 

 

Some interesting observations:

 

1. The Sox could score over 5.6 runs/game. In a regular 162 game season, that would be over 900 runs.

 

2. In not one of the top 30 optimal lineups is JD Martinez batting 3rd. **Pay attention Roenicke**

 

3. Verdugo batting lead off? An interesting idea, though that's a lot of pressure to put on a young kid.

 

Now you sound like Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill

Posted
On the topic of lineups, RedSoxStats used the lineup optimization tool based on players' 2020 projections. Here's what the tool came up with:

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1282707812896903170/photo/1

 

 

Some interesting observations:

 

1. The Sox could score over 5.6 runs/game. In a regular 162 game season, that would be over 900 runs.

 

2. In not one of the top 30 optimal lineups is JD Martinez batting 3rd. **Pay attention Roenicke**

 

3. Verdugo batting lead off? An interesting idea, though that's a lot of pressure to put on a young kid.

 

I think Beni has to hit leadoff. I know he struggled there last year (and his predecessor was MVP), but he's used to leadoff since at least college. Plus, long-haired Beni is faster on the bases!

 

Then I'd go X, Rafie, JD and Verdugo; Alex may turn out to be a top of the order guy, but we gotta slot Bogie in there so there won't be three straight lefty sticks in order to take advantage of the new three-batter pitcher minimum.

 

Or we could flip X and Rafie -- either way, Devers has to get up in the first... I don't think many fans realize just how destructive he was in '19, leading the MLB in extra-base hits with 90. Since the Integration Era began in 1947, only 12 others cracked more XBHs in the AL (Big Papi holds the Sox team record with 91 in '04).

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I think Beni has to hit leadoff. I know he struggled there last year (and his predecessor was MVP), but he's used to leadoff since at least college. Plus, long-haired Beni is faster on the bases!

 

Then I'd go X, Rafie, JD and Verdugo; Alex may turn out to be a top of the order guy, but we gotta slot Bogie in there so there won't be three straight lefty sticks in order to take advantage of the new three-batter pitcher minimum.

 

Or we could flip X and Rafie -- either way, Devers has to get up in the first... I don't think many fans realize just how destructive he was in '19, leading the MLB in extra-base hits with 90. Since the Integration Era began in 1947, only 12 others cracked more XBHs in the AL (Big Papi holds the Sox team record with 91 in '04).

 

I agree with Beni hitting lead off. I want JD and Devers in the #2 and #4 slots, it doesn't matter too much to me which is where, though I like JD batting second. Who to bat 3rd? Maybe Verdugo.

Posted
I agree with Beni hitting lead off. I want JD and Devers in the #2 and #4 slots, it doesn't matter too much to me which is where, though I like JD batting second. Who to bat 3rd? Maybe Verdugo.

 

Maybe Devers 2nd vs RHPs and JD 2nd vs RHPs (flip them)? I might try Bogey 2nd, but 4th or 5th is fine, too.

 

Verdugo 3rd sounds just about right.

 

1. Beni

2. Devers/JD

3. Verdugo

4. JD/Devers

5. Bogey

6. Moreland

7. Chavis/Peraza

8. Vazquez

9. JBJ/Pillar

Community Moderator
Posted (edited)

What the Sox were doing towards the end of ST was:

 

Beni

Devers

Xander

JD

Chavis/Mitch

Vaz

JBJ

Pillar

Peraza

 

We'll have to see if they move Verdugo up from 8, or let him stay down there until he heats up. He did miss substantial time at the end of last season.

Edited by mvp 78
Community Moderator
Posted
Seems like Beni/Devers will definitely be one/two punch. Xander and JD may flip flop 3/4. 1B will be 5th. The bottom of the lineup may depend upon if Pillar or Verdugo is playing. Seems like Peraza is automatically 9th. JBJ has almost always hit directly behind Vaz. Seems that Pillar/Verdugo will either be 6th or 8th coming before or after the Vaz/JBJ combo.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Maybe Devers 2nd vs RHPs and JD 2nd vs RHPs (flip them)? I might try Bogey 2nd, but 4th or 5th is fine, too.

 

Verdugo 3rd sounds just about right.

 

1. Beni

2. Devers/JD

3. Verdugo

4. JD/Devers

5. Bogey

6. Moreland

7. Chavis/Peraza

8. Vazquez

9. JBJ/Pillar

 

I am not big on flipping line ups based on right/left match ups, but I'm good with JD and Devers in the 2nd and 4th spots in either order. I pretty much agree with your line up other than the flipping.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
What the Sox were doing towards the end of ST was:

 

Beni

Devers

Xander

JD

Chavis/Mitch

Vaz

JBJ

Pillar

Peraza

 

We'll have to see if they move Verdugo up from 8, or let him stay down there until he heats up. He did miss substantial time at the end of last season.

 

Based on projections, I think Verdugo should be higher up in the order than 8th. That said, it's a very valid point that he is young and that he missed some time last season. It might be better to bat him lower until he gets comfortable.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Seems like Beni/Devers will definitely be one/two punch. Xander and JD may flip flop 3/4. 1B will be 5th. The bottom of the lineup may depend upon if Pillar or Verdugo is playing. Seems like Peraza is automatically 9th. JBJ has almost always hit directly behind Vaz. Seems that Pillar/Verdugo will either be 6th or 8th coming before or after the Vaz/JBJ combo.

 

In case anyone's not aware, let me go on record as saying that I am vehemently opposed to JD batting 3rd.

Community Moderator
Posted
Based on projections, I think Verdugo should be higher up in the order than 8th. That said, it's a very valid point that he is young and that he missed some time last season. It might be better to bat him lower until he gets comfortable.

 

For the Dodgers, he usually hit 2nd, 6th or 7th (about 30 games each). He only had 60 AB's after June and was pretty bad in September (553 OPS).

Posted
For the Dodgers, he usually hit 2nd, 6th or 7th (about 30 games each). He only had 60 AB's after June and was pretty bad in September (553 OPS).

 

Verdugo has to hit higher in the lineup; according to last year's stats -- when eight Red Sox batters whiffed over 100 times -- he's the best contact hitter on the team. Peraza is second:

 

2019 Strikeout % per Plate Appearance

Verdugo 13%

Peraza 14%

Mookie 14%

Bogie 17%

Devers 17%

Vazquez 19%

JD 21%

Mitch 22%

Beni 23%

JBJ 27%

Chavis 33%

 

Yikes.

Community Moderator
Posted
Verdugo has to hit higher in the lineup; according to last year's stats -- when eight Red Sox batters whiffed over 100 times -- he's the best contact hitter on the team. Peraza is second:

 

2019 Strikeout % per Plate Appearance

Verdugo 13%

Peraza 14%

Mookie 14%

Bogie 17%

Devers 17%

Vazquez 19%

JD 21%

Mitch 22%

Beni 23%

JBJ 27%

Chavis 33%

 

Yikes.

 

You want Peraza hitting higher too?

Community Moderator
Posted
Also, Verdugo's K rate in the 2nd half last year was 27%. Let's make sure he's healthy and productive before we automatically place him at the top of the lineup.
Posted
Also, Verdugo's K rate in the 2nd half last year was 27%. Let's make sure he's healthy and productive before we automatically place him at the top of the lineup.

 

I didn't look at the splits, but we do know he was hurting then. We don't know if Peraza will bounce back from a down year, either... but we do know that last year's lineup featured the most prolific whiffers in Red Sox history. If most of the swing-and-miss guys don't or can't change their modern approach, then it would behoove the team to insert more contact in between. At least for the poor viewers...

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Also, Verdugo's K rate in the 2nd half last year was 27%. Let's make sure he's healthy and productive before we automatically place him at the top of the lineup.

 

The Sox best starter is Eovaldi and the bullpen is lead by TBD. I don’t think Verdugo’s batting slot is a “make or break” decision for the 2020 season...

Old-Timey Member
Posted
The Sox best starter is Eovaldi and the bullpen is lead by TBD. I don’t think Verdugo’s batting slot is a “make or break” decision for the 2020 season...

 

We are going to slug our way to the World Series!

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