How Much is the Most You'd Pay Mookie?

[mvp 78]

The 2003 Marlins are the only team in the Competitive Balance Tax era to allocate more than 20% of its payroll to one player and win the World Series.

 

Betts is after money close to that. I don't see us bucking the trend somehow. Especially with the contracts we have on the books for the next 3/4 years.

 

If the Sox signed him with an AAV of about 35M, it'd be less than 20% of team payroll. Any team in the top 5 of payroll could sign Mookie at that and have it be less than 20%.

[mvp 78]

But Price was a mistake. Mookie is certainly less likely to be one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t at some point.

 

Mookie want $35 million per year for 12 years. How many good years do you expect from him?

 

What's your definition of good?

 

I already said he'd have 6 great years, 3 decent ones and the rest could be a mixed bag.

[Bellhorn04]

Anything could happen to anyone at any time.

 

Absolutely true.

 

But Mookie will be one of the two human beings on the planet getting 400 million to play baseball.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely true.

 

But Mookie will be one of the two human beings on the planet getting 400 million to play baseball.

 

And once Bellinger signs and the next guy and the next guy....

[Bellhorn04]

And once Bellinger signs and the next guy and the next guy....

 

I honestly thought the crazy upward spiral would end somewhere. But maybe not.

[mvp 78]

I honestly thought the crazy upward spiral would end somewhere. But maybe not.

 

I thought so when ARod signed with TX for 10/252. We've blown past that.

[notin]

I thought so when ARod signed with TX for 10/252. We've blown past that.

 

But only in the past couple years. Only 5 contracts have had a higher value since ARod's original deal 19 years ago, and one of them was his own extension in 2007. Other that that, only Harper, Machado, Cole and Stanton have topped ARod's contract from 2001. And three of those last 4 were signed in the last two off-seasons...

[Hitch]

If the Sox signed him with an AAV of about 35M, it'd be less than 20% of team payroll. Any team in the top 5 of payroll could sign Mookie at that and have it be less than 20%.

 

That's why I said the money he wants would be approaching that. 17%. That much of a percentage on any one player is probably a mistake - almost certainly when that contract is 12 years long. It's definitely a mistake if we extended now as we'd be paying 5 players 65% of the wage bill for the next 3 years. That's not healthy (to say the least) when we have such a barren farm.

[Bellhorn04]

That's why I said the money he wants would be approaching that. 17%. That much of a percentage on any one player is probably a mistake - almost certainly when that contract is 12 years long. It's definitely a mistake if we extended now as we'd be paying 5 players 65% of the wage bill for the next 3 years. That's not healthy (to say the least) when we have such a barren farm.

 

Yeah, if you take the cold, rational longview, if Mookie wants 400 million, we're better off if he gets it elsewhere - hopefully in the National League though.

[moonslav59]

That's why I said the money he wants would be approaching that. 17%. That much of a percentage on any one player is probably a mistake - almost certainly when that contract is 12 years long. It's definitely a mistake if we extended now as we'd be paying 5 players 65% of the wage bill for the next 3 years. That's not healthy (to say the least) when we have such a barren farm.

 

If the 12 years brings the AVV down $2-3M, it may be worth it.

 

If Betts is worth $380M/10, paying him $420M/12 may work out better. We save $3M a year for 10 years then are essentially paying him $20M x 2 his last 2 years, which by then may not be a burden.

[Bellhorn04]

If the 12 years brings the AVV down $2-3M, it may be worth it.

 

If Betts is worth $380M/10, paying him $420M/12 may work out better. We save $3M a year for 10 years then are essentially paying him $20M x 2 his last 2 years, which by then may not be a burden.

 

Or we could be absolutely screwed by about Year 5 or 6 of the contract, with a monster albatross hanging around our necks.

 

Lots of possibilities.

[mvp 78]

That's why I said the money he wants would be approaching that. 17%. That much of a percentage on any one player is probably a mistake - almost certainly when that contract is 12 years long. It's definitely a mistake if we extended now as we'd be paying 5 players 65% of the wage bill for the next 3 years. That's not healthy (to say the least) when we have such a barren farm.

 

The barren farm gave us every position on the field except DH.

[moonslav59]

Or we could be absolutely screwed by about Year 5 or 6 of the contract, with a monster albatross hanging around our necks.

 

Lots of possibilities.

 

Of course. I realize it's a huge risk. I also understand the risk is much greater when you put so many eggs in just one basket, but I believe Betts is a one of a kind player.

 

I'm all in.

[moonslav59]

The barren farm gave us every position on the field except DH.

 

Nobody is saying the farm was barren 3-10 years ago.

[mvp 78]

Nobody is saying the farm was barren 3-10 years ago.

 

The 2010 farm wasn’t good.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course. I realize it's a huge risk. I also understand the risk is much greater when you put so many eggs in just one basket, but I believe Betts is a one of a kind player.

 

I'm all in.

 

Sadly, I think I'm out now.

[mvp 78]

Sadly, I think I'm out now.

 

I’m in until he sign elsewhere next offseason.

[moonslav59]

The 2010 farm wasn’t good.

 

Yes, actually 2010-2011 were not that good, but pretending our farm is okay because all but our DH came from a farm mostly long ago, is not realistic.

 

Our farm is pretty barren, right now, and has been for 2-3 years. When you have a long stretch like that, it usually means trouble.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m in until he sign elsewhere next offseason.

 

But you've been of the opinion that if they trade him it's unlikely he'll be back, right?

[mvp 78]

But you've been of the opinion that if they trade him it's unlikely he'll be back, right?

 

Yup. I’ll still hold out hope against hope.

[mvp 78]

Yes, actually 2010-2011 were not that good, but pretending our farm is okay because all but our DH came from a farm mostly long ago, is not realistic.

 

Our farm is pretty barren, right now, and has been for 2-3 years. When you have a long stretch like that, it usually means trouble.

Fix farm. Retain mlb talent for next 5 years.

[moonslav59]

Yup. I’ll still hold out hope against hope.

 

If we reset, we'll be open for business. There's no reason to think we can't be the top bidder.

 

There's only a few teams that will bid close to $350/10 or more for anybody.

[notin]

Fix farm. Retain mlb talent for next 5 years.

 

One way to fix the farm is to trade Betts...

[Elktonnick]

One way to fix the farm is to trade Betts...

 

Of course at all costs, after all the goal of every Major League team is not to win but to have the best farm system so every one can say, "Wait until next year!".

Edited February 1, 2020 by Elktonnick

[moonslav59]

Of course at all costs after all the goal of every Major League team is not to win but to have the best farm system so every one can say, "Wait until next year!".

 

Better than the goal of thinking you can just keep spending more and more to plug several holes on a team already spending way more than anyone else.

 

Trading Betts will not get us even close to having the best farm, but when you have a team that has so many holes to fill and a budget in need of a reset, improving the farm and the future financial outlook is a logical plan.

 

Let's make the cliff as short as possible.

[Elktonnick]

Better than the goal of thinking you can just keep spending more and more to plug several holes on a team already spending way more than anyone else.

 

Trading Betts will not get us even close to having the best farm, but when you have a team that has so many holes to fill and a budget in need of a reset, improving the farm and the future financial outlook is a logical plan.

 

Let's make the cliff as short as possible.

 

Here is the fundamental problem. One shouldn't make any significant trades based on incomplete information. The great unknown is what penalties will MLB impose if any on the Red Sox. Will these penalties involve future draft picks? If so, how many? And, will such penalties involve one, two or more years? Until this is known one really can not develop a meaningful complete strategic plan on how to rebuild the farm. So I wouldn't be in any hurry to trade Betts unless some team makes an incredible offer that would allow me to reasonably achieve my goals regardless of the penalties imposed. I simply doubt any team will make such an offer. Moreover I think Kevin Kennedy's comments reveal reasonable concerns about Verdugo which I suspect Chaim is well aware of and may have caused him some pause.

[Hitch]

The barren farm gave us every position on the field except DH.

 

I'm not sure what to make of such a nonsense reply. Nobody can accuse you of not trying to force non sequiturs into many of your posts at least, I guess.

[notin]

Of course at all costs, after all the goal of every Major League team is not to win but to have the best farm system so every one can say, "Wait until next year!".

 

No you’re right.

 

The Sox with a Betts won 85 games last year. And so far they’ve added Martin Perez and Jose Peraza and a few wishes for the health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi. By all means this team should “go for it.” Exactly what do you expect from them if they do keep Betts and “go for it”? They finished NINETEEN GAMES out of first last year. They missed the second wild card by TWELVE GAMES!! Which of the Killer P’s (Perez, Peraza, Plawecki) is going to cut into those gaps?

 

And then when they lose Betts in 2021 by not resetting, how many wins do you expect?

 

But yeah, status quo in MLB and complete ignorance of the farm is the way to go here. That makes sense. (

[notin]

Here is the fundamental problem. One shouldn't make any significant trades based on incomplete information. The great unknown is what penalties will MLB impose if any on the Red Sox. Will these penalties involve future draft picks? If so, how many? And, will such penalties involve one, two or more years? Until this is known one really can not develop a meaningful complete strategic plan on how to rebuild the farm. So I wouldn't be in any hurry to trade Betts unless some team makes an incredible offer that would allow me to reasonably achieve my goals regardless of the penalties imposed. I simply doubt any team will make such an offer. Moreover I think Kevin Kennedy's comments reveal reasonable concerns about Verdugo which I suspect Chaim is well aware of and may have caused him some pause.

 

So you think Bloom needs to wait for penalties, but also that his waiting is clearly “paralysis by analysis.”

 

There’s absolutely no pleasing some people. Bloom could extend Betts, surgically replace Sale’s arm and Price’s wrist on his own, acquire Trout for Marco Hernandez with Anaheim paying the whole deal, and do it all in one day, and your first comment would be “BUT WE HAVE NO CLOSER!!”

[Elktonnick]

No you’re right.

 

The Sox with a Betts won 85 games last year. And so far they’ve added Martin Perez and Jose Peraza and a few wishes for the health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi. By all means this team should “go for it.” Exactly what do you expect from them if they do keep Betts and “go for it”? They finished NINETEEN GAMES out of first last year. They missed the second wild card by TWELVE GAMES!! Which of the Killer P’s (Perez, Peraza, Plawecki) is going to cut into those gaps?

 

And then when they lose Betts in 2021 by not resetting, how many wins do you expect?

 

But yeah, status quo in MLB and complete ignorance of the farm is the way to go here. That makes sense. (

 

I expect that they will be a better team with Betts than without Betts. Let's see how 2020 plays out. In any case to trade Betts before MLB has come with its penalties is premature. To trade Betts before they have a chance to see if they are still in contention after the ASB is equally premature.