Pay Mookie!

[notin]

It's the difference in mindset.

 

Some posters want maximum payroll flexibility.

some posters want maximum talent at the MLB level.

 

This is vital if you want to keep Mookie long term.

 

I know a lot of people think it's a given that if the Sox trade Mookie, he isn't coming back. I would call it very possible, but far from a given.

 

Keeping Mookie and going for it all in 2020 is more likely to bring a repeat of 2019 than of 2018.

 

Also, keeping Mookie certainly looks like bringing him back for 2021 is not likely at all, given how spending has been lately.

 

And even if all the stars align, and the Sox keep Mookie for 2020, and then extend him for 2021 and beyond, the team surrounding him is not likely to be all that great. The Sox would have about $140 million or so tied up in Mooke, Price, Sale, Bogaerts and Eovaldi and still have 21 roster spots to fill for an average about $5mill per player, assuming Henry keeps the budget that high. This would be substantially easier if the Sox had a few minimum wage players coming through the pipeline just to fill some roster spots. But even then, what does the final team look like? Having minimum wage contributing players would be idea, but there is a shortage of those in the sox farm right now.

 

However, if the Sox can pull of a Mookie/Price trade (or maybe even just a Mookie trade), they can hedge their bets against those minimum wage contributors by getting other options from the Dodger farm system or Padre farm system, not to mention reset the luxury tax penalties, and possibly even shed an enormous contract in Price and replace his spot in the rotation. If this all works out, trading Mookie actually solves a bunch of problems for the Sox that will happen after 2020...

[mvp 78]

To me, the size of Henry's wallet is what creates flexibility for option 2.

 

DD definitely put them into a corner if the Sox care about payroll flexibility. Sox ownership didn't seem concerned about that flexibility until after DD was let go. Maybe they've learned their lesson? Maybe this payroll flexibility is just a new phase until they start blowing out the lux tax again? Hard to say.

[TylerD]

The boring and depressing cold stove season is about to turn. I fought all winter against the narrative that the Red Sox have to trade a Hall of Famer for players not as good so they can free up money to sign other players not as good. I'm burned out by prevailing logic and about to concede with a just-as-tired warning: be careful what you wish for.

 

Look at Boston's needs and at next year's free agent class. If the Sox reset -- and don't re-sign Betts -- they may use the savings to target a starting pitcher, a closer and another outfielder. Say they sign three above-average players like Robbie Ray, Liam Hendriks and Starling Marte... I try to convince myself those pieces will make the team better than keeping Mookie. Then I calculate value: the above trio produced a cumulative 7.4 WAR last year; Mookie averages 7 WAR himself, per year, in every season of his career.

 

Yes, longterm contracts almost always end up as burdens. But large market franchises like Boston are historically the few with financial resources that help cut their losses easier than others. But I believe Betts is a rare elite five-tool athlete with as good a chance as any other player in baseball to actually earn his salary.

The argument that Mookie's frame or height guarantees he'll break down sooner than someone two or three inches taller is dubious (that's as nice as I can put it). I know guys 5'9" who never stopped practicing, working out and honing their talents, and who saw their game peak in their mid-30s -- and even some who hit better than ever in their 50s in old-timer's leagues vs. ex-pros and D1 hurlers. None were world class athletes like Betts.

 

I'll end with this: one thing that could age Mookie faster is New England weather. His body and career will thrive better in whatever warmer and sunny city he chooses. I wish him good skill (he won't need any luck).

 

Well said. I have a friend who is a Jays fan, and absolutely hates the Red Sox.... And even he is saying it's stupid to let Mookie go. I think people get confused is the problem. There is a lot of really good players out there, and some very very good. Mookie is neither of those, he is truly a once in a life time player that can do it all. I generally am not a person that is a fan of massive contracts, but in the case of Mookie I definitely think he deserves it, and the Sox would be foolish to let him walk.

[TylerD]

Old grizzled poster mvp walks into the TalkSox Saloon.

Spits into a spitoon.

Makes a post that goes kaboom.

Turns around and heads back to his room.

 

Wow.... That should go platinum lol!

[TylerD]

It's the difference in mindset.

 

Some posters want maximum payroll flexibility.

 

some posters want maximum talent at the MLB level.

 

Mookie in my opinion is a guy that you can build an entire team around and will be good for years and years to come. I think he is worth the price..... That is one position we won't ever have to worry about if we sign him. We already have enough positions to worry about. AKA Pitching. Reading the board the last few weeks, it's amazing that some are comfortable with our pitching. Porcello is gone, Sale and Price are huge question marks...... I am deathly afraid that our rotation could seriously suck balls.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, the size of Henry's wallet is what creates flexibility for option 2.

 

DD definitely put them into a corner if the Sox care about payroll flexibility. Sox ownership didn't seem concerned about that flexibility until after DD was let go. Maybe they've learned their lesson? Maybe this payroll flexibility is just a new phase until they start blowing out the lux tax again? Hard to say.

 

I think a lot of it has to do with the lux tax structure and the fact that Year 3 is deadly.

 

Alex Speier also pointed out that there are other penalties in withheld revenue-sharing money for teams who go over the threshold 3 years in a row.

[notin]

I think a lot of it has to do with the lux tax structure and the fact that Year 3 is deadly.

 

Alex Speier also pointed out that there are other penalties in withheld revenue-sharing money for teams who go over the threshold 3 years in a row.

 

The luxury tax payments are the smallest part of it. The Sox paid more money to both each Sandoval and Pedroia last year than they paid in tax money, and paid nearly as much in tax money as they paid to Rusney Castillo...

[mvp 78]

Mookie in my opinion is a guy that you can build an entire team around and will be good for years and years to come. I think he is worth the price..... That is one position we won't ever have to worry about if we sign him. We already have enough positions to worry about. AKA Pitching. Reading the board the last few weeks, it's amazing that some are comfortable with our pitching. Porcello is gone, Sale and Price are huge question marks...... I am deathly afraid that our rotation could seriously suck balls.

 

I agree that Mookie is one of those very few guys that is deserving of an uncomfortable contract. I believe he'll age well and that his contract will be fine the first 9 years or so.

[mvp 78]

The luxury tax payments are the smallest part of it. The Sox paid more money to both each Sandoval and Pedroia last year than they paid in tax money, and paid nearly as much in tax money as they paid to Rusney Castillo...

 

You know it's a Monday when we're grumbling about Castillo, Sandoval and Pedey.

[notin]

You know it's a Monday when we're grumbling about Castillo, Sandoval and Pedey.

 

More making a point about the size of the tax portion of the CBA penalties. It's the rest of the stuff I think Henry wants to avoid. You know - IFA money, draft picks, first born children. That kind of stuff...

[TylerD]

I agree that Mookie is one of those very few guys that is deserving of an uncomfortable contract. I believe he'll age well and that his contract will be fine the first 9 years or so.

 

Ya 12 years is a long investment no doubt. That is a bit scary too, but at the end of the day he is basically asking for 35 mill a season. He's worth it..... Unfortunately 12 years is a long time, injuries can kill players and end careers.

[Bellhorn04]

The luxury tax payments are the smallest part of it. The Sox paid more money to both each Sandoval and Pedroia last year than they paid in tax money, and paid nearly as much in tax money as they paid to Rusney Castillo...

 

Huh? If the luxury tax payments are the smallest part of it, what's the big deal about re-setting?

[Bellhorn04]

More making a point about the size of the tax portion of the CBA penalties. It's the rest of the stuff I think Henry wants to avoid. You know - IFA money, draft picks, first born children. That kind of stuff...

 

Those penalties are negligible.

 

Your Budgie license is hereby revoked.

[Slasher9]

I think a lot of it has to do with the lux tax structure and the fact that Year 3 is deadly.

 

Alex Speier also pointed out that there are other penalties in withheld revenue-sharing money for teams who go over the threshold 3 years in a row.

 

yup. and JH is now on record saying he wants to reset every 3 years like every other team does. we can count on him to blow out the budget 2 out of every 3 years. not bad IMO. could you really ask much more of the owner of your favorite sports team?

[notin]

Those penalties are negligible.

 

Your Budgie license is hereby revoked.

 

THen what was Speier referring to?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie's about to enter his age 27 season.

 

At age 27, Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown. At age 27, Wade Boggs had 240 hits and won the first of four straight batting crowns. At age 27, David Ortiz joined the Red Sox to lead them to three World Series rings.

 

Here are the cumulative WARs produced for each from those age 27 seasons through the end of their careers: Yaz 71.5; Boggs 73.4; Ortiz 50.2 (just on offense). Betts averages 7 WAR per year, so is a good bet to join the the trio with 70 more WAR through the next decade.

 

Many agree Mookie is the Sox best homegrown player since Yaz. Can you even imagine the Yawkeys not paying Yaz or Boggs -- or Henry and Werner not keeping Ortiz in Boston?

[notin]

Those penalties are negligible.

 

Your Budgie license is hereby revoked.

 

Dropping 10 places in the draft is negligible?

 

So you prefer Brady Aiken over Andrew Benintendi?

[notin]

Mookie's about to enter his age 27 season.

 

At age 27, Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown. At age 27, Wade Boggs had 240 hits and won the first of four straight batting crowns. At age 27, David Ortiz joined the Red Sox to lead them to three World Series rings.

 

Here are the cumulative WARs produced for each from those age 27 seasons through the end of their careers: Yaz 71.5; Boggs 73.4; Ortiz 50.2 (just on offense). Betts averages 7 WAR per year, so is a good bet to join the the trio with 70 more WAR through the next decade.

 

Many agree Mookie is the Sox best homegrown player since Yaz. Can you even imagine the Yawkeys not paying Yaz or Boggs -- or Henry and Werner not keeping Ortiz in Boston?

 

At age 27, Jim Rice actually started to decline as a hitter...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At age 27, Jim Rice actually started to decline as a hitter...

 

Well, you know how poorly those 6'2, 200 lb. big guys who rely on muscle age...

 

They still paid him, though.

[mvp 78]

yup. and JH is now on record saying he wants to reset every 3 years like every other team does. we can count on him to blow out the budget 2 out of every 3 years. not bad IMO. could you really ask much more of the owner of your favorite sports team?

 

I'd just ask him to re-sign Mookie.

[mvp 78]

Mookie's about to enter his age 27 season.

 

At age 27, Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown. At age 27, Wade Boggs had 240 hits and won the first of four straight batting crowns. At age 27, David Ortiz joined the Red Sox to lead them to three World Series rings.

 

Here are the cumulative WARs produced for each from those age 27 seasons through the end of their careers: Yaz 71.5; Boggs 73.4; Ortiz 50.2 (just on offense). Betts averages 7 WAR per year, so is a good bet to join the the trio with 70 more WAR through the next decade.

 

Many agree Mookie is the Sox best homegrown player since Yaz. Can you even imagine the Yawkeys not paying Yaz or Boggs -- or Henry and Werner not keeping Ortiz in Boston?

 

Best since before Yaz.

[mvp 78]

Dropping 10 places in the draft is negligible?

 

So you prefer Brady Aiken over Andrew Benintendi?

 

Do the Sox expect to pick in the top 10 sometime soon?

[notin]

Well, you know how poorly those 6'2, 200 lb. big guys who rely on muscle age...

 

Esepcially pre-steroid.

 

But for real, Rice was averaging about 4.8 fWAR through age 26. Then plummeted down to 3 fWAR per year the remainder of his career. And it's not like it was just dragged down by the last couple seasons, which were bad by this metric. He started getting 2 and 3 fWAR seasons fairly regularly, and only topped 4 fWAR twice after age 26. He topped 5 fWAR three times between ages 24 and 26...

[notin]

Best since before Yaz.

 

Since Ted Williams?

 

Williams had a career high 11.8 fWAR in his age 27 season...

[notin]

Mookie's about to enter his age 27 season.

 

At age 27, Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown. At age 27, Wade Boggs had 240 hits and won the first of four straight batting crowns. At age 27, David Ortiz joined the Red Sox to lead them to three World Series rings.

 

Here are the cumulative WARs produced for each from those age 27 seasons through the end of their careers: Yaz 71.5; Boggs 73.4; Ortiz 50.2 (just on offense). Betts averages 7 WAR per year, so is a good bet to join the the trio with 70 more WAR through the next decade.

 

Many agree Mookie is the Sox best homegrown player since Yaz. Can you even imagine the Yawkeys not paying Yaz or Boggs -- or Henry and Werner not keeping Ortiz in Boston?

 

You left out Ellsbury, who got 9.5 fWAR of his career total of 30.3 in his age 27 season.

 

But then Ellsbury is an example of why not. Had the Sox paid him in accordance with his age 27 season production, it would have been a Contractual Disaster of Crawfordian Proportions...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd just ask him to re-sign Mookie.

 

What's frustrating and confusing as a Red Sox fan is why Henry and Co. suddenly picked now to become inconsistent with spending compared to the last two decades and even last year. Does anyone really think Dombro alone compelled billionaires to blow money on iffy pitchers when the Red Sox have an entire department who I'm sure prints out spreadsheets to show why Mookie Betts was such a better investment than injury-prone arms?

 

I'm also sure John Henry himself can figure out how to use baseball-ref or fangraphs. But I confess I did attend an ivy league school; it was a middle school, and after chasing down a foul ball into the woods I caught such a rash I need cortizone cream to dry out.

[mvp 78]

Since Ted Williams?

 

Williams had a career high 11.8 fWAR in his age 27 season...

 

Probably.

[mvp 78]

What's frustrating and confusing as a Red Sox fan is why Henry and Co. suddenly picked now to become inconsistent with spending compared to the last two decades and even last year. Does anyone really think Dombro alone compelled billionaires to blow money on iffy pitchers when the Red Sox have an entire department who I'm sure prints out spreadsheets to show why Mookie Betts was such a better investment than injury-prone arms?

 

I'm also sure John Henry himself can figure out how to use baseball-ref or fangraphs. But I confess I did attend an ivy league school; it was a middle school, and after chasing down a foul ball into the woods I caught such a rash I need cortizone cream to dry out.

 

Henry could have pulled the checkbook back at any time. I don't know why he allowed the Eovaldi and Sale extensions last year if he was going to be worried about lux tax a few months later...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You left out Ellsbury, who got 9.5 fWAR of his career total of 30.3 in his age 27 season.

 

But then Ellsbury is an example of why not. Had the Sox paid him in accordance with his age 27 season production, it would have been a Contractual Disaster of Crawfordian Proportions...

 

Mookie's going to blast off in California this year, isn't he? I can see a happy 10 WAR MVP season in the NL, with a special section in the bleachers tabbed "Mookiewood." While we're Will Mired in Fenway...

[Bellhorn04]

THen what was Speier referring to?

 

As I said, Speier pointed out that there are other penalties in withheld revenue-sharing money.

 

All money.