2020 Prospects

[mvp 78]

I get your point, and the 2013 season is not a shining example of strong previous farms leading to a ring, but the fact remains, we have no rings when the farm was weak for 2-3 year prior to the ring season. Every ring we have in my lifetime was won during or one year after we had a very strong farm.

 

The farm barely contributed at all to the 2004 team. You could make a case for a bigger impact for the other 3 for sure.

[moonslav59]

Sox Prospects hadn't updated for Juan Centeno re-signing yesterday. He's the MiLB guy that could be used as an emergency C and played in a few Sox games last year where nobody was paying attention.

 

My guess is he will be invited.

[mvp 78]

My guess is he will be invited.

 

Most likely. He's a glove first guy who can barely hit, but you need somebody to take care of the pitchers in the spring.

[moonslav59]

Most likely. He's a glove first guy who can barely hit, but you need somebody to take care of the pitchers in the spring.

 

Chances are Vaz or Plawecki need some IL time during 2020.

[mvp 78]

Chances are Vaz or Plawecki need some IL time during 2020.

 

Jett Bandy can hit a little bit. Maybe he's the first one up?

[notin]

Baseball America just released their annual top 100 rankings.

 

Casas came in at 70.

 

Dalbec came in at 75.

 

That's it. If Mata and Ward have strong seasons, they should be on next year. A strong season from Casas could vault him into the top 25.

 

It's actually pretty tough for a 1B to get into the top 25, and extremely tough to crack the top 10. Lars Anderson did crack the top 25 (BA #17), and them dropped precipitously the next year. Other exceptional 1B like Paul Goldschmidt were never ranked at all due to their position.

 

It's been done, but it's not as common as other positions...

Edited January 25, 2020 by notin

[notin]

Because almost every young player improves somewhat?

 

Myth.

 

Unless you're reserving your judgment for after-the-fact for when a player is good. If that is the case, we don't know yet if Duran qualifies. Minor League is history is littered with players as talented and more talented than Duran who never saw Day One on the Majors...

[notin]

Disagree entirely. The biggest change now is that prospects have become overvalued. I believe there is a prospect market that is going to burst. People can hoard all the prospects they want, but it's just a bunch of lottery tickets. Veteran players are known commodities.

 

But having sufficient prospects to fill the holes for the league minimum allows teams to acquire better veteran players...

[notin]

They have 7 guys who have a realistic chance to be top 100 guys next year:

 

Casas

Mata

Groome

Jimenez

Dalbec

Duran

Ward

 

If they all made it, would that be Bloom turning things around?

 

I'll take the under on all 7 making the top 100. How many teams have had 7 players ranked at one time? I can only think of 3. (2011 Royals, 2014 Red Sox, 2019 Padres) And in the case of the Royals and Red Sox, not all of the named players even became Major Leaguers. Jury is obviously still out on the Padres. (But they won't.)

.

There are 29 other teams, each with lists of top 7 prospects close to or better than that with candidates for the top 100, and all 210 players simply cannot fit on a 100 player list. Not even if BA doubles the size of the list.

 

The Sox might get 3 of them. Four would be the upper limit. (But that is still an impressive jump.)

[moonslav59]

MLB.com has Kopech #20.

 

77 Casas

 

Nobody else.

[mvp 78]

@jimcallisMLB

I'm assuming there's some overlap with those above-average & elite tools. Dalbec was not far off, feels like he's been very close the last 2-3 times we've done the list. Good D at 3B, won't budge Devers, could win

@RedSox

1B job. #Top100Prospects

[mvp 78]

@BenBadler

Our top 100 international prospect signings of 2019.

 

Includes up to date scouting reports on every player heading into 2020.

 

It’s our deepest dive ever on an international signing class.

 

 

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Sox on list:

26. RHP Chih-Jung Liu

27. RHP Luis Perales

49. OF Juan Chacon

97. OF Jhostynxon Garcia

[mvp 78]

Liu is ranked 24 at SoxProspects: https://soxprospects.com/players/liu-chih-jung.htm

 

Perales is ranked 42 at SoxProspects: https://soxprospects.com/players/perales-luis.htm

[Slasher9]

@BenBadler

Our top 100 international prospect signings of 2019.

 

Includes up to date scouting reports on every player heading into 2020.

 

It’s our deepest dive ever on an international signing class.

 

 

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Sox on list:

26. RHP Chih-Jung Liu

27. RHP Luis Perales

49. OF Juan Chacon

97. OF Jhostynxon Garcia

 

Jhostynxon might be the coolest name ever. i cant even figure out how to say it.

[Bellhorn04]

Jhostynxon might be the coolest name ever. i cant even figure out how to say it.

 

Johnson.

[mvp 78]

Jhostynxon might be the coolest name ever. i cant even figure out how to say it.

 

I don't want to have to remember how to spell that.

[mvp 78]

@BenBadler

Our top 100 international prospect signings of 2019.

 

Includes up to date scouting reports on every player heading into 2020.

 

It’s our deepest dive ever on an international signing class.

 

 

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Sox on list:

26. RHP Chih-Jung Liu

27. RHP Luis Perales

49. OF Juan Chacon

97. OF Jhostynxon Garcia

 

@redsoxstats

The Sox with a big showing on this list, four names. Pitchers Chih-Jung Liu and Luis Perales are ranked right next to each other and Perales is getting monster reviews after his stuff exploded since agreeing with Boston.

[notin]

Jhostynxon might be the coolest name ever. i cant even figure out how to say it.

 

Joe

[moonslav59]

@BenBadler

Our top 100 international prospect signings of 2019.

 

Includes up to date scouting reports on every player heading into 2020.

 

It’s our deepest dive ever on an international signing class.

 

 

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Sox on list:

26. RHP Chih-Jung Liu

27. RHP Luis Perales

49. OF Juan Chacon

97. OF Jhostynxon Garcia

 

Very encouraging after several down years in an area we used to excel at.

 

3 in the top 50 is very nice.

[jacksonianmarch]

Baseball America just released their annual top 100 rankings.

 

Casas came in at 70.

 

Dalbec came in at 75.

 

That's it. If Mata and Ward have strong seasons, they should be on next year. A strong season from Casas could vault him into the top 25.

 

Casas isn't going to be a top 25 talent unless he jumps to AA or AAA and rakes. He isn't the kind of prospect BA likes. BA loves the 5 tool guys and those are the guys who make it way up the line. They only start gushing over 2 tool mashers when they are near MLB ready

 

I am surprised they loved Dalbec so much, but I guess for a MLB ready kid who hit 59 HRs the last 2 seasons, they like the pop. But Dalbec's inability to make contact or even hold a good BA in the minors is pretty concerning. Also, one must consider that he isn't exactly a kid (turns 25 in June), so he was facing leagues where the guys were either at his age or younger.

[jacksonianmarch]

They have 7 guys who have a realistic chance to be top 100 guys next year:

 

Casas

Mata

Groome

Jimenez

Dalbec

Duran

Ward

 

If they all made it, would that be Bloom turning things around?

 

Every team has guys who could make the top 100 with a great season in the minors. The problem is, injuries and ineffectiveness creep in. I would tell you this.

 

Groome is likely going to be either in relief or if he is starting, get a 90 inning cap. This will seriously drop his ranking. Unless he comes out and pulls a Gerrit Cole and throws to a 2ERA with 12K/9IP and shows deadly control, he isn't making the top 100. As a matter of fact, as a sox fan, you should just hope he can pitch in April through August without getting hurt.

 

I like Mata. He could end up a top 100 guy. He's certainly got the power, although questions about command and secondary stuff keep his ranking down. But for a guy with his power, he's never been a huge K rate guy. He also has had command issues that creeped back up in AA. He will be a top 100 guy if he dominates AA as he turns 21. He is also a pitching prospect, so he also needs health

 

It is unfair to put any predictions on Jimenez. We had a guy who was insanely hyped last year in Antonio Cabello, who killed it in short season only to flop this past year. These non initially hyped teenager DR prospects don't usually have the easiest of roads early on, especially as they start to see better pitching in the lower levels. He has the tools, let him develop. They may push him to A full season ball. Don't be surprised if he doesn't kill it in 2020. But a solid line (.270/.320/.380 or so) with great speed and good D is enough to keep him progressing.

 

Duran is going to flop. I will tell you this right now. The other guys above on this list certainly have the potential to be a top 100. Duran, to me, is a guy with skills that do not translate to being a great prospect. Yes, he crushed High A ball. But when he got to AA, the warts started to show. He is a high BABIP reliant player who uses his speed to get on base. No power to say the least. But these types need to make a lot of contact so they can reach base then steal bases. Well, he doesn't make great contact and he isn't exceptionally patient. He got to AA and K'd over once per game. If he cannot make more contact, his skill set will peak at that of a backup OFer/pinch runner.

 

Ward, the jury is out. Most SR's on him are a guy with average velocity for a RHer who gets a lot of swings and misses. He added the cutter, which seems to have helped him. He doesn't locate well and didn't make it out of A ball. He should be in AA this year and that is where the rubber meets the road for most prospects. If his new found velo is sustainable, if he can stay healthy and if that cutter fools more advanced hitters, then you might have something. But with his skill set, I doubt if he ever makes the top 100. Then again, top 100 is just an opinion. Robby Cano was never a top 100 prospect and he might be a HOFer. Doesn't mean Ward couldn't be useful, but the lack of command of a non plus plus arsenal would worry me as he progresses

[Slasher9]

jacksonianmarch writing 1000 word post to attack our MiLB players? shocking.

#notatroll?

[jacksonianmarch]

Not attacking. Just being realistic. Feel free to dispute what I said. Your post is actually more trolling than anything is said, but you’re a Sox fan, so you can’t troll. Right?

[Slasher9]

Not attacking. Just being realistic. Feel free to dispute what I said. Your post is actually more trolling than anything is said, but you’re a Sox fan, so you can’t troll. Right?

 

correct

 

heres my dispute. switch all those guys to the Tampa Tarpons and you will have them projecting to be All Stars. you do it all the time. all. the. time.

#notatroll?

[mvp 78]

Jacko, I was simply responding to moon who said "so, all those who expected a "quick rebuild of the farm" have what to say, now?" in reference to the Sox showing on the top 100 right now.

 

It was simply a hypothetical situation that argues against "the cupboard is bare" arguments I see all the time. Is it likely that they will all be top 100? Nope. Probably 0.001% chance. However, you even admitted that at least 5 of them have chance to be top 100 next year, just that I should temper expectations. The only guy you really disagreed with was Duran. Fine. Do I expect him to be Ellsbury 2007? f*** no. Could he develop enough to be an everyday starter, maybe?

 

My personal opinion about farm systems is that you're either stocked full with lottery tickets or you're not. Every prospect has the ability to flame out until they've done it. Think of all the handwringing over Anderson Espinoza. To me, prospects are fun to watch develop and it gives us something else to talk about aside from the 25 man roster. Will every prospect reach their potential? Of course not.

 

My post was simply stating that if every prospect makes that huge jump in their career this upcoming season, does that make the farm more full than it is right now? It does only if you believe them to be assets held only for trading purposes. At the end of the day, if a prospect can't help you tomorrow, it doesn't matter if they are raking in A ball. Across baseball, there aren't that many 2017 Devers or 2016 Benintendis. Anything beyond a guy knocking the door down is just a lottery ticket, nothing else.

[jacksonianmarch]

correct

 

heres my dispute. switch all those guys to the Tampa Tarpons and you will have them projecting to be All Stars. you do it all the time. all. the. time.

#notatroll?

 

and you guys call out the downsides of each prospect. Last I checked, we are on a message board. Opinions are typically welcome, I would assume, right?

[mvp 78]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/1/31/21116244/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-gilberto-jimenez

 

Jimenez flew under the radar when he came into the organization, signing for just $10,000 out of the Domincan Republic in August of 2017. As is generally the case for players signing at that point in the year, his first real games wouldn’t come until the next summer. In the meantime, however, the Red Sox did get Jimenez to work in trying to become a switch hitter during Instructional League that year. He took that out to the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old the following summer and performed very well in his first taste of pro ball. Jimenez slashed .319/.384/.420 over 67 games and stealing 16 bases. He did get caught 14 times, though, for what that’s worth.

 

After that strong showing, Jimenez really started to get some buzz. He was named the Latin Program Position Player of the Year that season, and word of his outstanding make up started to spread. The Red Sox were huge fans of the talent and the kid himself. Rather than give him some time in the GCL — not uncommon for Latin players his age with his lack of pedigree — they trusted he would be able to handle an assignment to Lowell. They were right. Jimenz led the league in hitting as an 18-year-old, hitting .359/.393/.470 in 59 games, stealing 14 bases and this time being caught only six times.

 

The scouting report is interesting and probably a bit predictable for Jimenez. He is extremely raw, which is to be expected for someone about to start his age-19 season who just started hitting from the left side (obviously the more common side to hit from for a switch hitter) two years ago. Still, the hit tool has the potential to be above-average, though there’s a long way to go there and it’s far from a given. Perhaps surprisingly, some have noted his left-handed swing is actually ahead of the right-handed one, despite the inexperience. He has the body for power, but unless there’s an overhaul coming in his swing it’s probably not going to develop into much of anything. That said, his speed — which is unanimously graded as plus-plus — and line drive approach should allow him to hit plenty of doubles and triples. Throw in the potential to be a very good defensive center fielder and the aforementioned make up and there’s plenty of be excited about. There’s just a long way to go for it to be realized.

[mvp 78]

and you guys call out the downsides of each prospect. Last I checked, we are on a message board. Opinions are typically welcome, I would assume, right?

 

I have to say, you are one of the posters I've never had to put on ignore, so you can't be all that bad!

 

There are trolls on here, but I wouldn't count you as one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko, I was simply responding to moon who said "so, all those who expected a "quick rebuild of the farm" have what to say, now?" in reference to the Sox showing on the top 100 right now.

 

It was simply a hypothetical situation that argues against "the cupboard is bare" arguments I see all the time. Is it likely that they will all be top 100? Nope. Probably 0.001% chance. However, you even admitted that at least 5 of them have chance to be top 100 next year, just that I should temper expectations. The only guy you really disagreed with was Duran. Fine. Do I expect him to be Ellsbury 2007? f*** no. Could he develop enough to be an everyday starter, maybe?

 

My personal opinion about farm systems is that you're either stocked full with lottery tickets or you're not. Every prospect has the ability to flame out until they've done it. Think of all the handwringing over Anderson Espinoza. To me, prospects are fun to watch develop and it gives us something else to talk about aside from the 25 man roster. Will every prospect reach their potential? Of course not.

 

My post was simply stating that if every prospect makes that huge jump in their career this upcoming season, does that make the farm more full than it is right now? It does only if you believe them to be assets held only for trading purposes. At the end of the day, if a prospect can't help you tomorrow, it doesn't matter if they are raking in A ball. Across baseball, there aren't that many 2017 Devers or 2016 Benintendis. Anything beyond a guy knocking the door down is just a lottery ticket, nothing else.

 

You can really say that about any prospect, though. If anyone has a great year at a young age, they could jump up on the radar. No system is ever "bare" but the amount of lottery tickets in the sox system is just less than others. And some of the lottery tickets have limited upside. What the sox really lack is any true 5 tool talents. They also lack pitching with command of an impressive depth of arsenal or power. That is why they get creamed. Outside of Dalbec, they also lack any sort of big league ready talent capable of giving depth in 2020. So they lack upside, they lack proximity, and they lack depth of the prospect pool. They aren't bare, they're just worse off than most. Bloom will fix this, but it will be more difficult if the cheating scandal robs the sox of draft and IFA stock.

 

Bleacher report just updated their rankings and have the sox moving up to 28th in the game. Interestingly, the Nats are the worst farm, yet they have a top 50 and a top 100, but their depth beyond their top 4 prospects is pretty awful or far away. #29 is Milwaukee, their farm is absolutely terrible with zero top 100 prospects now that Hiura is a MLBer.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather have a few high level prospects that are close to ready than a stacked farm that can't help you this year and may never get close enough anyway.