David Price...

[notin]

Price and JBJ

 

for

 

Hosmer, Margot and $30M ($5M a year for all of Hosmer's 6 remaining years).

 

Luxury tax savings

 

2020: $29M (31 Price + 11M JBJ for 18 Hosmer - 5 payment)

2021: $18M + whatever Margot costs

2022: $18M + Margot

2023: -$13M Hosmer ($18M-$5M payment)

2024: -$13M

2025: -$13M

 

 

 

 

Hosmer is ower $63mill over the next 3 seasons. After which, he can opt out or collect $38mill for the final 3 seasons. The opt out is a tough call here.

 

The guy is a league average hitter and weak defender who basically hit free agency at the right time. He might be a 6 yer commitment if the Sox deal Price for him, and they will probably be 6 steadily declining years.

 

At what point in these bad contract trade dels does it just make sense to hold on to Price and instead trade just one year of Mookie Betts if they need to get under the luxury tax limit. There is a point where it does make sense to deal Betts over Price, believe it or not. Hosmer is one time when I would say it does. There are a lot of bad contracts I would take back in a Price swap.

 

Not Hosmer. If he doesn't op out, he is in a Sox for 6 years.

 

 

 

Before the Red Sox make a long term commitement to Eric Hosmer, who is a league average hitter and weak fielder at 1b.

[Bellhorn04]

Screw the bad contract trades. We need to find another team willing to pay Price 54 million or more. If no such team exists, might as well forget the re-set for 2020.

[Elktonnick]

Screw the bad contract trades. We need to find another team willing to pay Price 54 million or more. If no such team exists, might as well forget the re-set for 2020.

The other day Peter Gammons wrote that a GM said that Boston wanted prospects for Price. That GM thought that it unlikely that any team would give up the quality prospects Boston is seeking in such a trade.

[Bellhorn04]

The other day Peter Gammons wrote that a GM said that Boston wanted prospects for Price. That GM thought that it unlikely that any team would give up the quality prospects Boston is seeking in such a trade.

 

I would agree.

[notin]

Screw the bad contract trades. We need to find another team willing to pay Price 54 million or more. If no such team exists, might as well forget the re-set for 2020.

 

There are some bad contracts I’d trade Price for, but I draw that line before Hosmer. And I only consider Odor and Myers options because both are young enough to bounce back somewhat...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would agree.

 

Ha, the trade site would rip Bloom a new one for even suggesting prospects back for Price... however, we should be happy with his true ulterior motives behind such opening conversations with any interested clubs:

 

1. he doesn't really expect prospects for Price (after all, Bloom, himself, would laugh at such offers when he was serving Tampa) -- instead he's heading teams off at the pass, before they even ask us for additional sweeteners;

 

2. Bloom's sending talksox and other Soxual media a coded message: "relax, I'm not tearing anything down or blowing anything up."

[moonslav59]

Screw the bad contract trades. We need to find another team willing to pay Price 54 million or more. If no such team exists, might as well forget the re-set for 2020.

 

We have so many holes to fill, so I think it's better to take back some player with salary that has some hope of giving something positive rather than just pay $40M+. They both count the same on the tax budget

[Bellhorn04]

2. Bloom's sending talksox and other Soxual media a coded message: "relax, I'm not tearing anything down or blowing anything up."

 

That sounds good, but in the meantime, what a snooze. I'm practically drooling on myself now.

[notin]

We have so many holes to fill, so I think it's better to take back some player with salary that has some hope of giving something positive rather than just pay $40M+. They both count the same on the tax budget

 

 

Exactly. Pollock, for example.

 

I’d only even consider Hosmer if Sam Diego really sweetened the pot, which would probably require more sweetening than they are willing to add.

 

There are a few others I wouldn’t mind. Posey or Belt, for example.

 

Robinson Cano is one I think might work, except the AAV savings isn’t that great. But if the Mets took Bradley and added the right pieces with Cano, I could be intrigued...

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. Pollock, for example.

 

I’d only even consider Hosmer if Sam Diego really sweetened the pot, which would probably require more sweetening than they are willing to add.

 

There are a few others I wouldn’t mind. Posey or Belt, for example.

 

Robinson Cano is one I think might work, except the AAV savings isn’t that great. But if the Mets took Bradley and added the right pieces with Cano, I could be intrigued...

 

You guys keep amusing yourselves with fantasies of fancy multi-player deals...

[moonslav59]

You guys keep amusing yourselves with fantasies of fancy multi-player deals...

 

True, but it's been so boring!

More likely, we just trade price for Myers straight up.

[notin]

You guys keep amusing yourselves with fantasies of fancy multi-player deals...

 

I could engage in the other option for exciting baseball talk.

 

“Let’s do something, Bloom!!”

 

Satisfied?

[Bellhorn04]

I could engage in the other option for exciting baseball talk.

 

“Let’s do something, Bloom!!”

 

Satisfied?

 

We have no good options right now.

[moonslav59]

We have no good options right now.

 

Not too "amusing" there, either.

[notin]

We have no good options right now.

 

Except indulging in light fantasy...

[TylerD]

That sounds good, but in the meantime, what a snooze. I'm practically drooling on myself now.

 

There are soothers for that.

[cp176]

That sounds good, but in the meantime, what a snooze. I'm practically drooling on myself now.

 

Rock hard in your rocker. Throw it toward the window. Sox pitching staff comes back healthy as is we very well might be a playoff team.

[S5Dewey]

Rock hard in your rocker. Throw it toward the window. Sox pitching staff comes back healthy as is we very well might be a playoff team.

 

I see this as likely to happen as what happened last year when the top three collapsed.

[moonslav59]

I see this as likely to happen as what happened last year when the top three collapsed.

 

I think the chance Sale comes back is better than 50-50, but Price and Eovaldi are maybe under 50-50. In a sense, "likely" is saying you will flip heads 3 times in a row. That's less than 15%.

 

Now, my projected chances of coming back could be wrong, but if all were at 60% comeback status, the odds all 3 come back is about 21%. To have better than a 50% chance all 3 comeback, you have to view each individual as having about an 80% comeback chance (.8 x.8 x.8= 51%). That doesn't figure in the chanced ERod might get hurt or have a bad year.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but these 3 starters make it hard to do so.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing about Eovaldi is, and correct me if I'm wrong, but his last two injured stints were not for actual injuries. They were procedures to remove 'loose bodies' which came from his last TJ surgery. Rather annoying that it would happen twice.

[moonslav59]

With Eovaldi, it's been more about missing time than not pitching well. One also has to factor in the rehab time coming back from injuries at the ML level.

 

His numbers since 2013 are pretty close to average:

 

39-38 4.16 (3.74 FIP) 1.32 WHIP & 96 ERA+

 

Most of the hope attached to Eovaldi comes from just the from 2013 to 2015 and 2018:

 

2013-2015:

460 IP 4.09 ERA

 

2018

111 IP 3.81 ERA/1.13 WHIP- by far his best career number

 

 

[notin]

One thing about Eovaldi is, and correct me if I'm wrong, but his last two injured stints were not for actual injuries. They were procedures to remove 'loose bodies' which came from his last TJ surgery. Rather annoying that it would happen twice.

 

 

Point? Not pitching is not pitching.

[moonslav59]

Point? Not pitching is not pitching.

 

True, but when looking forward, I think the hope is better for a pitcher with the types of procedures Eovaldi had recently than someone with new or continuing structural damage.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but when looking forward, I think the hope is better for a pitcher with the types of procedures Eovaldi had recently than someone with new or continuing structural damage.

 

Thank you for seeing the point.

[notin]

True, but when looking forward, I think the hope is better for a pitcher with the types of procedures Eovaldi had recently than someone with new or continuing structural damage.

 

And whether it was pitching-related or not, or even to his non-throwing arm, a lost season is just that. Dombrowski paid heavily to get Eovaldi to pitch for 4 seasons. There is no rebate on season one, and Nate is a year older now...

[notin]

Thank you for seeing the point.

 

I saw where you were trying to go. But the guy has missed extensive time with loose bodies on multiple occasions, and whether or not their is structural damage down the road doesn’t change that his time in Boston is set and finite, and that he has had those other injuries as well.

 

It’s almost like you’re trying to credit Eovaldi for finding new, less destructive ways to injure himself in between his “serious injuries.” Way to be creative, Nate!

[Bellhorn04]

I saw where you were trying to go. But the guy has missed extensive time with loose bodies on multiple occasions, and whether or not their is structural damage down the road doesn’t change that his time in Boston is set and finite, and that he has had those other injuries as well.

 

It’s almost like you’re trying to credit Eovaldi for finding new, less destructive ways to injure himself in between his “serious injuries.” Way to be creative, Nate!

 

Sometimes the docs mess up too.

[jacksonianmarch]

Those loose bodies are typically not a “mess up” but are broken off pieces of scar tissue from prior surgery or are broken off pieces of cartilage from the trauma of pitching

[notin]

Sometimes the docs mess up too.

 

Agreed. Doctors are human beings and not perfect. But let's not pretend that lessens the risk that was Eovaldi...

[moonslav59]

And whether it was pitching-related or not, or even to his non-throwing arm, a lost season is just that. Dombrowski paid heavily to get Eovaldi to pitch for 4 seasons. There is no rebate on season one, and Nate is a year older now...

 

I get that, but there's 3 years left on his contract, and he didn't have any new injury, last year. There is reason to hope he's fine going forward.

 

Price and Sale aggravated injuries and might be bigger question marks for 2020 than Eovaldi. (Personally, I like Sale bouncing back more than Eovaldi & Price, but that's not based on anything medical.)