Betts or Martinez?

[notin]

I'd bet dollars to donuts that their payroll department is probably separate from AP.

 

1) Exactly how does a "dollars to donuts" bet work? If I win, I get dollars, but if you win, you get donuts?

 

2) Really condifent that would bet that it's PROBABLY seperate. Exactly how do we determine a winner there? mvp: "Ok so they are not seperate, but I only bet that it was PROBABLE that they were." notin: "Oh darn. You win. Here's a donut."

 

3) The point of the joke being that that particular trade would cost LA a ton of money next year, close to $70mill, with another $64 mill on the books spread over the next 2 seasons. But would take the last 3 years of Pollock's contract away, valued at about $40mill total, plus one year of Pedereson at maybe $6mill-ish. So it would cost LA close to about $90 mill over the next 3 seasons...

Edited December 3, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

Looking at the Dodgers:

 

Pollock is owed $51M/3 counting the buyout for 2023. He has negative trade value and would greatly offset the cost of Price ($96M/3). Looking at Price, for a cost of $45M/3 is not so bad. He might even get that as a FA this winter, assuming he was one.

 

Joc Pederson might get about $10M in his last arb year. While that's way less than Betts, it does knock the cost of Betts to $18M not $28M.

 

All-in all, the money part of the deal works for the Dodgers, IMO. The sticking point might be the prospect we want added to the deal (or maybe add Chris Taylor- assuming we dump JBJ & Kenta Maeda).

 

From the Sox point of view, we see these budget savings:

 

2020: $35M ($60M Price+ Betts- $25M Pollock + Pederson)

2021: $14M ($32M Price- $18M Pollock)

2022: $19M ($32M Price- $13M Pollock)

Total savings: $68M

 

The Lux tax hit is even better:

2020: $35M ($31M Price+$28M Betts- $12M Pollock+$10M Pederson)

2021: $19M ($31M Price- $12M Pollock)

2022: $19M ($31M Price- $12M Pollock)

$73M total Lux Tax savings

 

[moonslav59]

1) Exactly how does a "dollars to donuts" bet work? If I win, I get dollars, but if you win, you get donuts?

 

2) Really condifent that would bet that it's PROBABLY seperate. Exactly how do we determine a winner there? mvp: "Ok so they are not seperate, but I only bet that it was PROBABLE that they were." notin: "Oh darn. You win. Here's a donut."

 

3) The point of the joke being that that particular trade would cost LA a ton of money next year, close to $70mill, with another $64 mill on the books spread over the next 2 seasons. But would take the last 3 years of Pollock's contract away, valued at about $40mill total, plus one year of Pedereson at maybe $6mill-ish. So it would cost LA close to about $90 mill over the next 3 seasons...

 

Donuts cost over a dollar, these days... good ones anyways.

[mvp 78]

Donuts cost over a dollar, these days... good ones anyways.

 

I only eat big baller donuts.

[mvp 78]

1) Exactly how does a "dollars to donuts" bet work? If I win, I get dollars, but if you win, you get donuts?

 

2) Really condifent that would bet that it's PROBABLY seperate. Exactly how do we determine a winner there? mvp: "Ok so they are not seperate, but I only bet that it was PROBABLE that they were." notin: "Oh darn. You win. Here's a donut."

 

3) The point of the joke being that that particular trade would cost LA a ton of money next year, close to $70mill, with another $64 mill on the books spread over the next 2 seasons. But would take the last 3 years of Pollock's contract away, valued at about $40mill total, plus one year of Pedereson at maybe $6mill-ish. So it would cost LA close to about $90 mill over the next 3 seasons...

 

db Donuts

cr Cash

[moonslav59]

I only eat big baller donuts.

 

I thought you were a hole guy.

[mvp 78]

I thought you were a hole guy.

 

Don't be gross.

[moonslav59]

Don't be gross.

 

I just noticed I called you an " a hole guy"

 

Sorry!

[mvp 78]

Freudian slip

[S5Dewey]

Long winded way of not answering the question, I guess.

 

Short winded way of not making a response, I guess.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ok, here's one that's sure to be excoriated: if Bloom is really as creative as advertised, I'm thinking if a Betts trade happens -- since it is assumed no one will trade the farm for an expensive one-year rental -- it will be a three-way deal that will bring back a star player in return. It may be the only way to assure the Red Sox of receiving compensation for a superstar intent on leaving, while at the same time saving face with fans and staying in contention.

Something like... Betts and Kluber to LA, Lux, Pederson and Dalbec to Cleveland, and Verdugo and FRANCISCO LINDOR to Boston.

 

Now, I know there are some guys who can't help running for their calculators -- but this isn't a trade equated entirely on dollar values. Read me out: this type of swap would only work if a team like the Dodgers decides to go all out to win now. Acquiring perennial MVP and Cy Young candidates in the same offseason would do just that.

 

Lux and Dalbec gives the Guardians, who are sure to lose Lindor soon, a new left side of the infield for the next half decade. Pederson gives them a much-needed power-hitting outfielder. Kluber, the AL leader in WAR, ERA and Wins the five previous seasons before suffering a broken arm last year, is expendable as the mid-market Tribe's highest paid player but also because their rotation is so solid.

 

For the Sox, Verdugo gives them an outfield prospect, and Lindor retools the entire club culture. Yes, Bogaerts would have to move to second base since Lindor is the best in the business. But that also fills the void at second. More than anything, Lindor replaces Betts with another top-five MLB player, and becomes the new face of the franchise. Of course, all of this is contingent upon the Sox being able to extend Lindor... but just maybe he'd be thrilled with the kind of offers that Betts keeps turning down.

 

If Bloom is really outside-the-box, then something like this may be conceivable. Ironically, in baseball, if a batter steps outside the box while making contact, he's out.

 

Have at it...

[harmony]

Ok, here's one that's sure to be excoriated: if Bloom is really as creative as advertised, I'm thinking if a Betts trade happens -- since it is assumed no one will trade the farm for an expensive one-year rental -- it will be a three-way deal that will bring back a star player in return. It may be the only way to assure the Red Sox of receiving compensation for a superstar intent on leaving, while at the same time saving face with fans and staying in contention.

Something like... Betts and Kluber to LA, Lux, Pederson and Dalbec to Cleveland, and Verdugo and FRANCISCO LINDOR to Boston.

 

Now, I know there are some guys who can't help running for their calculators -- but this isn't a trade equated entirely on dollar values. Read me out: this type of swap would only work if a team like the Dodgers decides to go all out to win now. Acquiring perennial MVP and Cy Young candidates in the same offseason would do just that.

 

Lux and Dalbec gives the Guardians, who are sure to lose Lindor soon, a new left side of the infield for the next half decade. Pederson gives them a much-needed power-hitting outfielder. Kluber, the AL leader in WAR, ERA and Wins the five previous seasons before suffering a broken arm last year, is expendable as the mid-market Tribe's highest paid player but also because their rotation is so solid.

 

For the Sox, Verdugo gives them an outfield prospect, and Lindor retools the entire club culture. Yes, Bogaerts would have to move to second base since Lindor is the best in the business. But that also fills the void at second. More than anything, Lindor replaces Betts with another top-five MLB player, and becomes the new face of the franchise. Of course, all of this is contingent upon the Sox being able to extend Lindor... but just maybe he'd be thrilled with the kind of offers that Betts keeps turning down.

 

If Bloom is really outside-the-box, then something like this may be conceivable. Ironically, in baseball, if a batter steps outside the box while making contact, he's out.

 

Have at it...

According to Baseball Trade Values, the Dodgers would be giving up $147.9 million in surplus value and getting only $52.7 million in return:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Hard to justify the $92.5 million disparity.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You must have missed the paragraph when I wrote: "this isn't a trade equated entirely on dollar values. Read me out: this type of swap would only work if a team like the Dodgers decides to go all out to win now. Acquiring perennial MVP and Cy Young candidates"...

 

...might justify trading two prospects and a fourth outfielder.

[jacksonianmarch]

So the Sox deal a year of Betts and Dalbec for two years of Lindor and 5 years of Verdugo? That’s comedy

[notin]

Ok, here's one that's sure to be excoriated: if Bloom is really as creative as advertised, I'm thinking if a Betts trade happens -- since it is assumed no one will trade the farm for an expensive one-year rental -- it will be a three-way deal that will bring back a star player in return. It may be the only way to assure the Red Sox of receiving compensation for a superstar intent on leaving, while at the same time saving face with fans and staying in contention.

Something like... Betts and Kluber to LA, Lux, Pederson and Dalbec to Cleveland, and Verdugo and FRANCISCO LINDOR to Boston.

 

Now, I know there are some guys who can't help running for their calculators -- but this isn't a trade equated entirely on dollar values. Read me out: this type of swap would only work if a team like the Dodgers decides to go all out to win now. Acquiring perennial MVP and Cy Young candidates in the same offseason would do just that.

 

Lux and Dalbec gives the Guardians, who are sure to lose Lindor soon, a new left side of the infield for the next half decade. Pederson gives them a much-needed power-hitting outfielder. Kluber, the AL leader in WAR, ERA and Wins the five previous seasons before suffering a broken arm last year, is expendable as the mid-market Tribe's highest paid player but also because their rotation is so solid.

 

For the Sox, Verdugo gives them an outfield prospect, and Lindor retools the entire club culture. Yes, Bogaerts would have to move to second base since Lindor is the best in the business. But that also fills the void at second. More than anything, Lindor replaces Betts with another top-five MLB player, and becomes the new face of the franchise. Of course, all of this is contingent upon the Sox being able to extend Lindor... but just maybe he'd be thrilled with the kind of offers that Betts keeps turning down.

 

If Bloom is really outside-the-box, then something like this may be conceivable. Ironically, in baseball, if a batter steps outside the box while making contact, he's out.

 

Have at it...

 

 

Obviously predicting a specific trade with all the names involved is difficult, even with only two teams. But I really don’t know if Lindor and Kluber are so readily available for a Cleveland team that won 93 games last year and could easily compete again.

 

I look for Bloom to try and find one of those Tyler Glasgow type former top prospects who still has potential. One name I like there is Lewis Brinson in Miami. Maybe a simpler deal where the Sox send JD Martinez out to, say, the Rangers (after they fail to sign Rendon) who then send, say, Guzman to the Miami and Brinson comes to Boston and Betts stays. Sox then deal Bradley for a DH or 2b...

[jacksonianmarch]

Bloom isn’t the guy to find that 5 tool bust. He’s more the kind of guy who finds velocity that hasn’t been honed (Glasgow) it power that hasn’t been harnessed yet (Meadows).

[notin]

Bloom isn’t the guy to find that 5 tool bust. He’s more the kind of guy who finds velocity that hasn’t been honed (Glasgow) it power that hasn’t been harnessed yet (Meadows).

 

What exactly are you basing this on?

[OH FOY]

Eh. A $32mill salary is as good as a no-trade clause...

 

No its not, Trade Deadline this year you have no idea what team might need Pitching, if contending for the Play-offs. If he is still here. You have 29 teams now for sure in it.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Price at this year's deadline is an unlikely scenario.

[Bellhorn04]

Not to mention, if they do trade him, it makes resetting easier and therefore bringing him back in December/January for a long term deal more likely. If the Sox keep Betts all year, miss the playoffs again, and fail to reset, they'll be in a position where Mookie's departure and the gaping hole he leaves gives them an excuse to punt 2021 in an effort to regain control of the team's skyrocketing payroll...

 

Trading Mookie this offseason so you can reset so you can try to sign him for 350 million next offseason seems like a preposterous plan to me, bordering on the rinky-dink.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks, notin, for giving a thoughtful reply to the idea of a three-way trade. In my example, I made sure I typed "something like" twice and bold-faced it, knowing full well some posters would still ignore the concept and only pick apart the specific names.

 

I know all we have to go by is Bloom's past, but I think it's important that he's working in a new company on a different budget. We can expect him to continue to comb the field for four-leaf clovers, but also hope he is creative in the mold of Theo with his plans and transactions. He sure is clearing roster space before the winter meetings...

[mvp 78]

Trading Mookie this offseason so you can reset so you can try to sign him for 350 million next offseason seems like a preposterous plan to me, bordering on the rinky-dink.

 

If they trade him, he's not coming back.

[moonslav59]

Thanks, notin, for giving a thoughtful reply to the idea of a three-way trade. In my example, I made sure I typed "something like" twice and bold-faced it, knowing full well some posters would still ignore the concept and only pick apart the specific names.

 

I know all we have to go by is Bloom's past, but I think it's important that he's working in a new company on a different budget. We can expect him to continue to comb the field for four-leaf clovers, but also hope he is creative in the mold of Theo with his plans and transactions. He sure is clearing roster space before the winter meetings...

 

No matter what you say in the intro, of course people are going to examine the names, and your example was lop-sided. Yes, a 3-team trade may be the best way for us to get what we want for Betts, since we may not want prospects- a 3rd team would want.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trading Mookie this offseason so you can reset so you can try to sign him for 350 million next offseason seems like a preposterous plan to me, bordering on the rinky-dink.

 

Ya, Betts doesn't seem like the type who'd secretly agree to transfer to another state in an exchange for players who may replace his buddies and old teammates, and quite possibly play as a rival against his original club who will be trying to beat him -- and then return without incurring some bruised/used feelings... Plus, a trade runs the risk of Mookie enjoying someplace else better that doesn't have New England weather and New England media.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No matter what you say in the intro, of course people are going to examine the names, and your example was lop-sided. Yes, a 3-team trade may be the best way for us to get what we want for Betts, since we may not want prospects- a 3rd team would want.

 

Again, not if you look at a trade from a team that is going for it now. What contender wouldn't want to add both an MVP and a Cy Young... for prospects who may never amount to anything? I would argue those swaps are lopsided for the former.

 

These trades happen all the time, star players or at least established players for minor leaguers. There's very few cases where a future Hall of Famer gets away, like Bagwell or Smoltz, and those were last century. I know people here still bemoan all the prospects that Dombro dealt, but so far only Moncada looks legit -- and that deal helped win a World Series... which is the whole point of trying to improve.

[Bellhorn04]

If they trade him, he's not coming back.

 

That's one part of it.

 

The other part is that trading him so you can re-set so you can have a lower tax rate for two years so you can (try to) pay the guy $35 million a year for 10 years is not much of a plan.

[mvp 78]

That's one part of it.

 

The other part is that trading him so you can re-set so you can have a lower tax rate for two years so you can (try to) pay the guy $35 million a year for 10 years is not much of a plan.

 

Once ownership lets a guy out the door, it shows to me that they don't really want him long term for the perceived market rate (i.e. they'll trade Lester at the deadline to re-sign him in the offseason!).

[notin]

No its not, Trade Deadline this year you have no idea what team might need Pitching, if contending for the Play-offs. If he is still here. You have 29 teams now for sure in it.

 

Yes it is.

 

Price’s contract for the pitcher that he is now is borderline, if not full-on albatross. Teams will look elsewhere for short term options who are just as good and won’t be owed $80mill for the next 2 1/2 seasons. And as of now, finding a pitcher as good as Price for less than $80mill isn’t the most complex task. Hopefully the Sox can move him, but it isn’t likely without taking back an equally cumbersome contract...

[mvp 78]

Yes it is.

 

Price’s contract for the pitcher that he is now is borderline, if not full-on albatross. Teams will look elsewhere for short term options who are just as good and won’t be owed $80mill for the next 2 1/2 seasons. And as of now, finding a pitcher as good as Price for less than $80mill isn’t the most complex task. Hopefully the Sox can move him, but it isn’t likely without taking back an equally cumbersome contract...

 

Our best hope is that he returns to his CY form and someone makes a rash decision on him.

[redsoxrules]

Martinez, just because he's a better hitter. He makes the lineup better. Everyone learns from him.

Plus I'd rather pay him 20 ish Mil than pay mookie 35-40 a year. We need to get rid of these ridiculous contracts, they hardly never pan out