Betts or Martinez?

[notin]

The general assumption is the Sox will trade one of these two. I (and plenty of media outlets) assumed it would be Betts. Some, however, including Soxprospects.com, assume it will be JD Martinez. There are benefits to both scenarios. Both are unlikely to be back for 2021 anyway. Betts is obviously better, but also will bring back more in a trade. (Significantly more if you believe baseballtradevalues.com, where Betts has a surplus value of $50mill to Martinez’ $6mill.). Martinez himself is certainly not a bad consolation prize as a hitter, but if he stays the Sox have to severely repair the outfield. And it will take more than just Jake Marisnick and Avisail Garcia.

 

Who goes? Who stays? “Both” is an option for April..,

[mvp 78]

I think JD will be harder to move so I'm betting that Betts will be the one to go.

[Bellhorn04]

Price, hopefully.

[S5Dewey]

My opinion hasn't changed any, and it's that they're not going to decimate the outfield by giving up both Betts and JBJ.

 

JDM's not exercising his opt-out clouded the issue for the FO though. If JDM had opted out they'd be holding onto Betts and possibly even non-tendered JBJ but with JDM as a part of the team they now have to decide whether to trade Betts or JBJ and finding a trading partner for either of them may take a little time.

[mvp 78]

My opinion hasn't changed any, and it's that they're not going to decimate the outfield by giving up both Betts and JBJ.

 

JDM's not exercising his opt-out clouded the issue for the FO though. If JDM had opted out they'd be holding onto Betts and possibly even non-tendered JBJ but with JDM as a part of the team they now have to decide whether to trade Betts or JBJ and finding a trading partner for either of them may take a little time.

 

Long winded way of not answering the question, I guess.

[moonslav59]

I think trading Price (Eovaldi?) & JBJ and keeping JD & Betts is a real option.

 

To answer the question here, I'd trade Betts, reset and then go hard after Betts next winter.

 

I think JD opts out next winter, unless he gets hurt or declines in 2020. I might look to trade him at the deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

My bet is they don't trade Mookie this offseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is a way we can keep both... "but obviously it will be difficult," said Sam. So maybe they went out and hired Bloom as the best man to make it happen and overcome those difficulties.

 

Devers and Bogaerts were better all-around bats last year, but Betts and JD are the two most important men in the batting order -- it was just two seasons ago they were the top two hitters in the AL. If I were building or rebuilding a team, I'd make every effort to keep both, along with Bogie and Rafie, and make every other player in the organization available.

 

But if I had to guess -- based entirely on my subjective reality as a lifelong member in good sitting of Red Sox Nation, plus the history of how Tampa views the DH as an interchangeable slot in the lineup -- I'd say JD would get dealt. Mookie is the face of the franchise, while DH for Bloom and his past company is a flexible position of options (seven Rays DHed 13 or more games in 2019, with Meadows, their All-Star outfielder, getting the most starts at only 44).

[mvp 78]

My bet is they don't trade Mookie this offseason.

 

They should just blow him away with a top of the market offer and be done with it. If he doesn't accept, move on.

 

If they keep Betts all year, they get like a 4th rounder as compensation I think. If they trade him midseason, you'll get a far smaller return.

 

To me, trading him at midseason is a bigg gamble. What if he gets hurt in May? What if you are still in contention in August? If the Sox stink from day 1, are they going to trade him early and drive fans away in June? Far too many variables for my liking.

[mvp 78]

There is a way we can keep both... "but obviously it will be difficult," said Sam. So maybe they went out and hired Bloom as the best man to make it happen and overcome those difficulties.

 

Devers and Bogaerts were better all-around bats last year, but Betts and JD are the two most important men in the batting order -- it was just two seasons ago they were the top two hitters in the AL. If I were building or rebuilding a team, I'd make every effort to keep both, along with Bogie and Rafie, and make every other player in the organization available.

 

But if I had to guess -- based entirely on my subjective reality as a lifelong member in good sitting of Red Sox Nation, plus the history of how Tampa views the DH as an interchangeable slot in the lineup -- I'd say JD would get dealt. Mookie is the face of the franchise, while DH for Bloom and his past company is a flexible position of options (seven Rays DHed 13 or more games in 2019, with Meadows, their All-Star outfielder, getting the most starts at only 44).

 

The way to keep both is just to not reset. Ownership can afford it. Whether or not they should is another question.

[notin]

Price, hopefully.

 

While I like the idea for some reasons, the reality is, not only is Price insanely difficult to move, he might not be that easy to replace. He's not a $31mill pitcher performance-wise, but he is still a 2-2.5 fWAR starter and the Sox have nothing coming up to step in and take his place. They're already down one starting pitcher and moving Price just creates another void in the rotation.

 

Of course, this might be irrelevant if the Sox bulk up the bullpen and start using the Opener Strategy, which is certainly possible with Bloom at the helm...

[mvp 78]

I can't see a path to them doing the Nick Punto trade again. Dodgers ownership was really desperate and inexperienced at the time. Not sure a similar situation exists in MLB right now.

[notin]

The way to keep both is just to not reset. Ownership can afford it. Whether or not they should is another question.

 

It's not just a question of affording it financially. It also impacts their draft picks, not only with penalties but also with compensatory picks for departing free agents. Resetting does have the effect of helping replenish the farm with actual capable bodies, even if it is just a short term effect, like one or two drafts.

 

There is some irony here that many of the people who seem to be against resetting like cheering for the homegrown players above the acquisitions, but staying above the limit impairs the Sox ability to have those very homegrown players...

[notin]

I can't see a path to them doing the Nick Punto trade again. Dodgers ownership was really desperate and inexperienced at the time. Not sure a similar situation exists in MLB right now.

 

Is any team more desperate than the Dodgers? They've become the Buffalo Bills of MLB.

 

The Reds are also clearly in "Short Term Title Run" mode, which they started last year with the acquisition of Trevor Bauer, who is the pitching version of Mookie - one year left and dead set against signing extensions...

[notin]

They should just blow him away with a top of the market offer and be done with it. If he doesn't accept, move on.

 

If they keep Betts all year, they get like a 4th rounder as compensation I think. If they trade him midseason, you'll get a far smaller return.

 

To me, trading him at midseason is a bigg gamble. What if he gets hurt in May? What if you are still in contention in August? If the Sox stink from day 1, are they going to trade him early and drive fans away in June? Far too many variables for my liking.

 

Not to mention, if they do trade him, it makes resetting easier and therefore bringing him back in December/January for a long term deal more likely. If the Sox keep Betts all year, miss the playoffs again, and fail to reset, they'll be in a position where Mookie's departure and the gaping hole he leaves gives them an excuse to punt 2021 in an effort to regain control of the team's skyrocketing payroll...

[notin]

I think JD will be harder to move so I'm betting that Betts will be the one to go.

 

If there is even the smallest amount of truth to the respective values at BTV, moving Martinez is almost pointless. The Sopx can reset, have a gaping hole in the offense, and get pretty much nothing going forward for 2021 and beyond from the trade. The only comfort there is the Sox also got essentially nothing from the Punto Trade except financial relief and still won a World Series title 14 months later...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't see a path to them doing the Nick Punto trade again. Dodgers ownership was really desperate and inexperienced at the time. Not sure a similar situation exists in MLB right now.

 

The only way to move Price is to include a decent prospect like Chavis or Dalbec (maybe that's the difficult part to which Kennedy was referring). I don't think including other MLB veterans -- even guys like Mookie or JBJ -- in a Price deal will work, because too many costly salaries will be too much for another team to absorb.

[notin]

The only way to move Price is to include a decent prospect like Chavis or Dalbec (maybe that's the difficult part to which Kennedy was referring). I don't think including other MLB veterans -- even guys like Mookie or JBJ -- in a Price deal will work, because too many costly salaries will be too much for another team to absorb.

 

Including Mookie to deal Price would be flat out stupid.

 

First of all, what team is so poorly run that they would take on $96mill worth of Price for one year of Mookie?

 

Second, what team is willing to add $60mill in payroll for two players, knowing one is already in decline?

 

Third, why would the Sox kill the value of one of their better trade assets by pairing him with one of their worst trade assets, especially with a farm that’s already been stripmined?

[moonslav59]

They should just blow him away with a top of the market offer and be done with it. If he doesn't accept, move on.

 

If they keep Betts all year, they get like a 4th rounder as compensation I think. If they trade him midseason, you'll get a far smaller return.

 

To me, trading him at midseason is a bigg gamble. What if he gets hurt in May? What if you are still in contention in August? If the Sox stink from day 1, are they going to trade him early and drive fans away in June? Far too many variables for my liking.

 

If we reset the tax, this year, it won't be a 4th rounder.

 

Sometimes, mid season desperation brings greater returns, but trading Betts in the winter allows the team to get a comp pick, if he bolts after 2020. That has real value, these days.

[mvp 78]

Is any team more desperate than the Dodgers? They've become the Buffalo Bills of MLB.

 

The Reds are also clearly in "Short Term Title Run" mode, which they started last year with the acquisition of Trevor Bauer, who is the pitching version of Mookie - one year left and dead set against signing extensions...

 

You're downplaying the legacy of the Bills.

[moonslav59]

I can't see a path to them doing the Nick Punto trade again. Dodgers ownership was really desperate and inexperienced at the time. Not sure a similar situation exists in MLB right now.

 

They are desperate for a ring. I could see a Betts + Price deal with LA happening, or maybe Betts + Eovaldi.

 

If we could trade Betts & Price to LA and JBJ + Eovaldi to Houston, we could start the rebuild very quickly and actually sign some decent players this winter while leaving room to make a run at Betts for 2021. (We could even deal JD to CWS.)

 

I'm not saying I'm for this idea, but it could jump start the rebuild.

[moonslav59]

If there is even the smallest amount of truth to the respective values at BTV, moving Martinez is almost pointless. The Sopx can reset, have a gaping hole in the offense, and get pretty much nothing going forward for 2021 and beyond from the trade. The only comfort there is the Sox also got essentially nothing from the Punto Trade except financial relief and still won a World Series title 14 months later...

 

Creating large budget spaces can be better than getting capable players back in trade. 2013 proved that.

 

It doesn't mean it will always work out like that, but resetting in 2020 would be a big boost to any rebuild.

[moonslav59]

Including Mookie to deal Price would be flat out stupid.

 

First of all, what team is so poorly run that they would take on $96mill worth of Price for one year of Mookie?

 

Second, what team is willing to add $60mill in payroll for two players, knowing one is already in decline?

 

Third, why would the Sox kill the value of one of their better trade assets by pairing him with one of their worst trade assets, especially with a farm that’s already been stripmined?

 

The reasons are obvious.

 

From LA's POV: They could send some salary back to BOS to partially offset the Price cost (Joc Pederson and/or AJ Pollock plus a prospect).

 

From BOS's POV: If including Betts helps us create a large budget space for 2020 and beyond, that clearly adds further value- maybe more than an iffy but talented prospect would bring back by trading Betts alone for Pederson and a prospect.

[moonslav59]

The only way to move Price is to include a decent prospect like Chavis or Dalbec (maybe that's the difficult part to which Kennedy was referring). I don't think including other MLB veterans -- even guys like Mookie or JBJ -- in a Price deal will work, because too many costly salaries will be too much for another team to absorb.

 

It's not the "only way."

 

We could maybe trade price for Wil Myers straight up. We save some money and fill the 1B/OF opening we have.

 

With the money saved (assuming we also dump JBJ) we can sign a more reliable SP'er.

[OH FOY]

How much Cash the Sox will have to eat, to move either Price or Eovaldi. At 17 for Eovaldi, wont have to eat much is my guess. You can lose 1 not both. Got to have Pitching. Otherwise don't matter what Betts or JD does.

[notin]

You're downplaying the legacy of the Bills.

 

Then how about we say the Dodgers are the closest thing in MLB right now, or that they are well on their way to being the Bills of MLB?

[mvp 78]

It's not the "only way."

 

We could maybe trade price for Wil Myers straight up. We save some money and fill the 1B/OF opening we have.

 

With the money saved (assuming we also dump JBJ) we can sign a more reliable SP'er.

 

If you want to save cash, I don't think you try bringing back $60M of Wil Myers dead money. Pass. At that point, I'd rather just keep Price.

[notin]

It's not the "only way."

 

We could maybe trade price for Wil Myers straight up. We save some money and fill the 1B/OF opening we have.

 

With the money saved (assuming we also dump JBJ) we can sign a more reliable SP'er.

 

A Price-Myers trade makes so much sense for both teams, if it was going to happen it probably already should have. I do wonder if the cost of replacing Price is a bigger factor than we realize...

[notin]

If you want to save cash, I don't think you try bringing back $60M of Wil Myers dead money. Pass. At that point, I'd rather just keep Price.

 

Myers is expensive for the rest of his deal, but in terms of Average Annual Value, it's only valued at about $13mill. So moving Price for him would reduce the Sox payroll towards the luxury tax by nearly $18mill. This isn't so much about saving money as it is getting below the limit governed by the AAV of the contracts...

[mvp 78]

Then how about we say the Dodgers are the closest thing in MLB right now, or that they are well on their way to being the Bills of MLB?

 

Just like the Braves did, I think the Dodgers will break through and win it in the next few years. They have such a strong system that it'd be dumb for them to start chasing wins. It's been a while, but 1988 is still modern baseball. It's not like they are trying to reverse a curse or anything. Plus, LA is a different market. If they never win another WS, I don't think it changes the fanbase much.