Jackie Bradley

[Nick]

Yes, and if the do not offer arbitration, they could still out bid anyone else for JBJ and get him for less than the arb might have given him.

 

That was my point.

 

(BTW, I doubt this happens. I think we either non tender and get outbid or we trade him.)

 

JBJ was worth $10M in the context of having outstanding outfield trio on a team with plenty of offense from other spots. The team was competing for World Championship. He was piece of that puzzle. He's not in that spot anymore. The team is no longer in that spot. I doubt he was ever worth $10M to any other team.

 

We'll see, won't we?

[S5Dewey]

I have a question that someone probably knows the answer to right off the top of their head.

 

Since this is an arb year for Bradley, is his salary subject to arbitration regardless of where he goes? Or does arbitration only apply to the team he's been with?

 

IOW, if the Sox were to non-tender him OR trade him would the team that then signs him be subject to arbitrating his 2020 salary with him regardless of which team it is?

[Bellhorn04]

I have a question that someone probably knows the answer to right off the top of their head.

 

Since this is an arb year for Bradley, is his salary subject to arbitration regardless of where he goes? Or does arbitration only apply to the team he's been with?

 

IOW, if the Sox were to non-tender him OR trade him would the team that then signs him be subject to arbitrating his 2020 salary with him regardless of which team it is?

 

If the Sox non-tender him, he's a regular free agent, and there's no arbitration.

[notin]

I don't know where people get the idea that Benintendi is an option for CF. He's not. He can run around out there and catch a few balls but that doesn't make him a ML CF'er. The world is full of people who can run around out there and catch a few balls. What we need in center in Fenway is someone who can cover a lot of ground and catch a lot of fly balls - the same thing we need in Right Field. And Beni can't play either well.

 

I disagree. Benintendi is an option for CF. Just not a good option....

[notin]

I have a question that someone probably knows the answer to right off the top of their head.

 

Since this is an arb year for Bradley, is his salary subject to arbitration regardless of where he goes? Or does arbitration only apply to the team he's been with?

 

IOW, if the Sox were to non-tender him OR trade him would the team that then signs him be subject to arbitrating his 2020 salary with him regardless of which team it is?

 

Trade him? Yes, his arbitration status stays the same.

 

Non-tender him and he is a free agent able to negotiate with anyone.

 

Bradley’s best chance at returning is if he is non-tendered and re-signs for less. And this does happen every year...

[Bellhorn04]

Trade him? Yes, his arbitration status stays the same.

 

They can't trade him right now, though, can they?

[notin]

They can't trade him right now, though, can they?

 

Legally, yes. But I would think most HMs would just assume see if he gets non-tendered.

 

Remember when the Red Sox traded Hatteberg to the Rockies for Pokey Reese, and then two days later both players were non-tendered?

[Kimmi]

His defense will he missed, but clearly arbitration is broken if they think he be worth 10 million a year.

 

Yes, arbitration is indeed broken.

[moonslav59]

Yes, arbitration is indeed broken.

 

Most arbs underpay players as compared to FA market salary, but every now and then, an example like JBJ's comes up.

 

The 4th arb year is part of the inflated value. Most final arbs are at year 3.

[S5Dewey]

I disagree. Benintendi is an option for CF. Just not a good option....

 

yes, but using that same rationale, so are you and I.

[notin]

yes, but using that same rationale, so are you and I.

 

Despite my being an excellent CF by middle aged engineer standards, I think just calling me “not good” is an extreme form of understatement...

 

I think the Sox will bring in someone like Lagares or (ugh) Billy Hamilton, at least as a stopgap...

[moonslav59]

Despite my being an excellent CF by middle aged engineer standards, I think just calling me “not good” is an extreme form of understatement...

 

I think the Sox will bring in someone like Lagares or (ugh) Billy Hamilton, at least as a stopgap...

 

I think we go "stopgap." I hope we go defensive stopgap.

 

Here are the FA Center fielders:

 

Starling Marte (31 years old, 3.0 WAR) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)

Jarrod Dyson (35, 1.3)

Billy Hamilton (29, 0.4) -- $7.5 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)

Carlos Gómez (34, -0.1)

Mason Williams (28, -0.1)

Leonys Martin (32, -0.6)

Keon Broxton (30, -0.8)

Juan Lagares (31, -0.8)

Austin Jackson (33, N/A)

 

[notin]

Broxton is another option I like. The Sox should bring him in as a fourth OF at the very least..,

[moonslav59]

UZR/150 from 2017-2019 CF:

 

 

9.5 Billy Hamilton

9.2 Jarrod Dyson

7.6 Juan Lagares

6.9 Keon Broxton

6.1 Leonys Martin

4.1 JBJ

-1.5 Starling Marte

-16.5Austin Jackson (33, N/A)

 

[harmony]

Broxton is another option I like. The Sox should bring him in as a fourth OF at the very least..,

But the Seattle Mariners have more payroll flexibility.

 

Seriously, the Mariners will likely go with Mitch Haniger and slew of young outfielders ... and, less seriously, Domingo Santana could be available as a J.D. Martinez replacement.

[notin]

But the Seattle Mariners have more payroll flexibility.

 

Seriously, the Mariners will likely go with Mitch Haniger and slew of young outfielders ... and, less seriously, Domingo Santana could be available as a J.D. Martinez replacement.

 

The Mariners will likely try Jake Fraley in CF, which is why Broxton was not retained.

 

Domingo Santana might be available to Boston as an OF as well, as the Sox could lose Betts and Bradley...

Edited November 3, 2019 by notin

[S5Dewey]

UZR/150 from 2017-2019 CF:

 

 

9.5 Billy Hamilton

9.2 Jarrod Dyson

7.6 Juan Lagares

6.9 Keon Broxton

6.1 Leonys Martin

4.1 JBJ

-1.5 Starling Marte

-16.5Austin Jackson (33, N/A)

 

 

Now, c'mon. We've been down that road and many of us have agreed that JBJ's DWAR is deflated because he plays next to Mookie which prevents JBJ from exercising his entire range. Something WAR doesn't seem to want to factor in, BTW.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Mariners will likely try Jake Fraley in CF, which is why Broxton was not retained.

 

Domingo Santana might be available to Boston as an OF as well, as the Sox could lose Betts and Bradley...

 

Santana is a streaky hitter who cannot play defense to save his life. He will not be worth his arbitration number

[harmony]

Santana is a streaky hitter who cannot play defense to save his life. He will not be worth his arbitration number

Career stats through age 26 seasons for these 6-foot-3+, 220-pound, defensively limited corner outfielders who passed through the Houston Astros system:

 

Player A 1455 PA, .272/.319/.442/.761, OPS+ 109

Player B 1835 PA, .259/.343/.453/.797, OPS+ 111

 

Player A is J.D. Martinez and Player B is Domingo Santana.

 

For what it's worth.

[moonslav59]

Now, c'mon. We've been down that road and many of us have agreed that JBJ's DWAR is deflated because he plays next to Mookie which prevents JBJ from exercising his entire range. Something WAR doesn't seem to want to factor in, BTW.

 

UZR/150 is not WAR, and I did not mean this to prove these guys are better than JBJ. I meant it to show there are several players available that are close to the same or maybe even better than JBJ might be next year.

 

Like you, I want superior defense in CF. I just don'tthink it has to be or should be JBJ.

[S5Dewey]

UZR/150 is not WAR, and I did not mean this to prove these guys are better than JBJ. I meant it to show there are several players available that are close to the same or maybe even better than JBJ might be next year.

 

Like you, I want superior defense in CF. I just don't think it has to be or should be JBJ.

 

Moon, I respect your thoughts and opinions probably more than anyone else's here but at times you tend to throw a little BS around in the way of obfuscating facts. You're right. UZR/150 is not WAR. However, UZR/150 or "Range Factor" or whatever else those trained observers or computer models want to call it is a prime factor in determining DWAR when then gets extended into WAR. In the case of JBJ, whose primary strength is his defense, his deflated UZR/150 makes a significant difference in his WAR and whether we want to admit it or not, nobody puts together a cognizant argument against WAR and therefore WAR is God. (I will never understand why, when baseball is comprised of offense and defense, OWAR + DWAR doesn't = WAR but that's a whole 'nother issue. Maybe that's too logical, but then again I thought math was logical.)

 

Anyway, Of those five players you mentioned whose UZR/150 are better than JBJ's only two of them - Dyson @ 1.3 & Martin @ 0.1 have DWAR in the positive numbers while JBJ's deflated DWAR is 0.4 and his WAR is 2.0. Only one of them -Dyson - has a positive WAR, and he's behind Bradley!

Dyson being the pick of the litter of those five earned $3.75M last year. Assuming he gets a raise to $5M from the Sox we've given up even more offense to save $5M. Is that enough to justify weakening ourselves up the middle? And that's IF we land Dyson. We can probably save even more money if we sign one of the others but you do tend to get what you pay for. Ugh.

 

BTW, all WAR values are for 2019

 

I wholly admit to being (maybe too) optimistic at times but I'm still hanging my hat on the fact that while he's playing for someone else there are going to be some posters here saying, "How did we ever let that guy go ?"

[moonslav59]

Moon, I respect your thoughts and opinions probably more than anyone else's here but at times you tend to throw a little BS around in the way of obfuscating facts. You're right. UZR/150 is not WAR. However, UZR/150 or "Range Factor" or whatever else those trained observers or computer models want to call it is a prime factor in determining DWAR when then gets extended into WAR. In the case of JBJ, whose primary strength is his defense, his deflated UZR/150 makes a significant difference in his WAR and whether we want to admit it or not, nobody puts together a cognizant argument against WAR and therefore WAR is God. (I will never understand why, when baseball is comprised of offense and defense, OWAR + DWAR doesn't = WAR but that's a whole 'nother issue. Maybe that's too logical, but then again I thought math was logical.)

 

Anyway, Of those five players you mentioned whose UZR/150 are better than JBJ's only two of them - Dyson @ 1.3 & Martin @ 0.1 have DWAR in the positive numbers while JBJ's deflated DWAR is 0.4 and his WAR is 2.0. Only one of them -Dyson - has a positive WAR, and he's behind Bradley!

Dyson being the pick of the litter of those five earned $3.75M last year. Assuming he gets a raise to $5M from the Sox we've given up even more offense to save $5M. Is that enough to justify weakening ourselves up the middle? And that's IF we land Dyson. We can probably save even more money if we sign one of the others but you do tend to get what you pay for. Ugh.

 

BTW, all WAR values are for 2019

 

I wholly admit to being (maybe too) optimistic at times but I'm still hanging my hat on the fact that while he's playing for someone else there are going to be some posters here saying, "How did we ever let that guy go ?"

 

Obviously UZR/150 is not part of WAR since, as you pointed out, many of the players with better UZR's than JBJ have worse DWARs, although DWAR is a cumulative metric, where as UZR/150 is per game.

 

I'd rather have JBJ than anyone on that list. My point was just about equal or near equal defense available at a small fraction of the cost of JBJ.

 

(I doubt Dyson gets $5M. He's old.)

 

I'm for keeping us strong up the middle on defense. I feel some sacrifices have to be made, and JBJ's offense is not something I'm going to cry about losing, even if he ends up better than everyone on the list.

[notin]

 

I wholly admit to being (maybe too) optimistic at times but I'm still hanging my hat on the fact that while he's playing for someone else there are going to be some posters here saying, "How did we ever let that guy go ?"

 

 

Only if the Sox play him in one of the months he’s actually hitting...

[notin]

(I will never understand why, when baseball is comprised of offense and defense, OWAR + DWAR doesn't = WAR but that's a whole 'nother issue. Maybe that's too logical, but then again I thought math was logical.)

 

Because there is an additional adjustment for the player’s position. A left fielder with 2 dWAR is not the same as a centerfielder with 2 dWAR...

[moonslav59]

Because there is an additional adjustment for the player’s position. A left fielder with 2 dWAR is not the same as a centerfielder with 2 dWAR...

 

dWAR is also a cumulative number that rewards good players who play more games.

 

UZR/150 is based on how well you play when you play and is not cumulative.

[S5Dewey]

Because there is an additional adjustment for the player’s position. A left fielder with 2 dWAR is not the same as a centerfielder with 2 dWAR...

 

So is Benintendi with his 1.7 WAR a better or worse player than JBJ with his 2.0 WAR ? Or can't we say because they play different positions?

[S5Dewey]

dWAR is also a cumulative number that rewards good players who play more games.

 

UZR/150 is based on how well you play when you play and is not cumulative.

 

True enough, but UZR and Range Factor both measure the same thing. AFAIK Range Factor is part of the WAR calculation but UZR isn't, but a rose by any other name....

[Slasher9]

Because there is an additional adjustment for the player’s position. A left fielder with 2 dWAR is not the same as a centerfielder with 2 dWAR...

 

so another reason dWAR is f***ing dumb. and people use it incorrectly all the time comparing different OF positions.

[moonslav59]

True enough, but UZR and Range Factor both measure the same thing. AFAIK Range Factor is part of the WAR calculation but UZR isn't, but a rose by any other name....

 

RF/9 just shows how many plays were made per 9 innings- not how many could/should have been made.

 

It's a huge difference.

 

Yes, we all agree that JBJ's UZR and dWAR have been negatively impacted by Betts being in RF and the big wall in left-center that takes away possible outs in other parks, but in my opinion, there are are other CF'ers who play great defense.

Edited November 4, 2019 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

so another reason dWAR is f***ing dumb. and people use it incorrectly all the time comparing different OF positions.

 

Yep! Surprised? The more I hear about it the less faith I have in it... and I didn't have a hell of a lot to start! LOL