The JD opt out

[Swiharts Ghost]

No, we could trade him.

 

Correct me if I’m wrong but ....who the hell would pay JDM a penny more when he’s an all bat DH ? With a gimpy back ? No one right ? So wouldn’t we have to sweeten the deal to even trade him ?The more I think about JDM situation the more I think the best time to deal him is in July if we are out of it and some team is desperate for his bat .

Edited October 26, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[Larry Cook]

Correct me if I’m wrong but ....who the hell would pay JDM a penny more when he’s an all bat DH ? With a gimpy back ? No one right ? So wouldn’t we have to sweeten the deal to even trade him ?The more I think about JDM situation the more I think the best time to deal him is in July if we are out of it and some team is desperate for his bat .

 

Last July was the perfect time to unload Martinez, but once again desperate Dave screws it up and we have to pay for his mistake.

 

Thanks Dave!

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s played in 296 games the last two years with a .970 OPS, with 76 HR and 235 RBI. While he’s missed some time with back issues, he’s been as durable as ever. Plenty of teams would line up to pay him. The question is whether he can beat the current deal. If JD opts out, I anticipate he will get a longer deal

[notin]

He’s played in 296 games the last two years with a .970 OPS, with 76 HR and 235 RBI. While he’s missed some time with back issues, he’s been as durable as ever. Plenty of teams would line up to pay him. The question is whether he can beat the current deal. If JD opts out, I anticipate he will get a longer deal

 

Like who?

 

Last time he was a free agent, he was 29 years old and coming off a season with a 1.066 OPS, which was carried by a .690 SLG (you know, the more exciting part of OPS), and interest was still pretty minimal. Now he’s two years older and coming off worse seasons and had minor back issues that likely limit him to DH, and plenty of teams will be interested?

 

Opt out or not, JD will be in Boston next year...

[Bellhorn04]

Like who?

 

Last time he was a free agent, he was 29 years old and coming off a season with a 1.066 OPS, which was carried by a .690 SLG (you know, the more exciting part of OPS), and interest was still pretty minimal. Now he’s two years older and coming off worse seasons and had minor back issues that likely limit him to DH, and plenty of teams will be interested?

 

Opt out or not, JD will be in Boston next year...

 

JD has done nothing to hurt his value salary-wise, but as you say, he's gotten 2 years older, and age/contract length are the real issues.

[Bellhorn04]

Last July was the perfect time to unload Martinez, but once again desperate Dave screws it up and we have to pay for his mistake.

 

Thanks Dave!

 

You're a brutal man, Larry.

 

First of all, JD was a great signing by DD-not just the player but the contract structure.

 

Secondly, it was obviously an organizational decision not to go into sell mode last July.

[moonslav59]

Correct me if I’m wrong but ....who the hell would pay JDM a penny more when he’s an all bat DH ? With a gimpy back ? No one right ? So wouldn’t we have to sweeten the deal to even trade him ?The more I think about JDM situation the more I think the best time to deal him is in July if we are out of it and some team is desperate for his bat .

 

If no one will pay him, then he shouldn't/won't opt out, in theory, but then again, players and agents have been wrong about their value before.

 

I could see a team making us take back a player with a high (but lower than JD's) contract to offset the high cost of a DH/PT OF'er, or we just kick in $4-6M to jack up the return we get for him.

 

I do not think there are a lot of teams looking to pay $22M for JD, but it just takes one.

 

[moonslav59]

You're a brutal man, Larry.

 

First of all, JD was a great signing by DD-not just the player but the contract structure.

 

Secondly, it was obviously an organizational decision not to go into sell mode last July.

 

Certainly, an argument could be made that was the wrong choice, especially in hindsight.

 

To me, it would have made sense to either pick up a decent RP'er and give the impression we were "going for it" or have a mini-sell off. Playing it halfway almost never works. (The 2013 team did.)

[Bellhorn04]

Certainly, an argument could be made that was the wrong choice, especially in hindsight.

 

To me, it would have made sense to either pick up a decent RP'er and give the impression we were "going for it" or have a mini-sell off. Playing it halfway almost never works. (The 2013 team did.)

 

Yep, awesome decisions can be made in hindsight.

[a700hitter]

JD is an elite power bat. Hopefully, he stays. Losing him would devastate the offensive production.

[oldtimer]

JD is an elite power bat. Hopefully, he stays. Losing him would devastate the offensive production.

 

I wouldn't use your word as we don't know who will fill in at the DH position and what their capability would be. JDM is special, so there would likely be an effect, but devasatation is probably an overstatement.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Like who?

 

Last time he was a free agent, he was 29 years old and coming off a season with a 1.066 OPS, which was carried by a .690 SLG (you know, the more exciting part of OPS), and interest was still pretty minimal. Now he’s two years older and coming off worse seasons and had minor back issues that likely limit him to DH, and plenty of teams will be interested?

 

Opt out or not, JD will be in Boston next year...

 

Yup it’s the way it is .

[Swiharts Ghost]

If no one will pay him, then he shouldn't/won't opt out, in theory, but then again, players and agents have been wrong about their value before.

 

I could see a team making us take back a player with a high (but lower than JD's) contract to offset the high cost of a DH/PT OF'er, or we just kick in $4-6M to jack up the return we get for him.

 

I do not think there are a lot of teams looking to pay $22M for JD, but it just takes one.

 

Also well said .Kicking in money seems ok if it’s like you said 4 or 5 million .I find this atleast palatable ? The guy can hit no doubt .Like you said only takes one team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Like who?

 

Last time he was a free agent, he was 29 years old and coming off a season with a 1.066 OPS, which was carried by a .690 SLG (you know, the more exciting part of OPS), and interest was still pretty minimal. Now he’s two years older and coming off worse seasons and had minor back issues that likely limit him to DH, and plenty of teams will be interested?

 

Opt out or not, JD will be in Boston next year...

 

He was coming off a Lisfranc injury, which can be problematic. He proved he’s beyond that. He’s fully healthy now. Now, he may end up a victim of league tanking, but a team like Cleveland, Chicago WS, and Texas Rangers could absolutely use a big bat added to the middle of their order and aren’t married to a DH. The White Sox are also trying to show their rebuild is over and with Giolito jumping out as an ace, now is the time.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Like who?

 

Last time he was a free agent, he was 29 years old and coming off a season with a 1.066 OPS, which was carried by a .690 SLG (you know, the more exciting part of OPS), and interest was still pretty minimal. Now he’s two years older and coming off worse seasons and had minor back issues that likely limit him to DH, and plenty of teams will be interested?

 

Opt out or not, JD will be in Boston next year...

 

Yup it’s the way it is .

[Swiharts Ghost]

He was coming off a Lisfranc injury, which can be problematic. He proved he’s beyond that. He’s fully healthy now. Now, he may end up a victim of league tanking, but a team like Cleveland, Chicago WS, and Texas Rangers could absolutely use a big bat added to the middle of their order and aren’t married to a DH. The White Sox are also trying to show their rebuild is over and with Giolito jumping out as an ace, now is the time.

Guardians ??? Not a chance but the Whitesox is a damn good call Jax .

[moonslav59]

He was coming off a Lisfranc injury, which can be problematic. He proved he’s beyond that. He’s fully healthy now. Now, he may end up a victim of league tanking, but a team like Cleveland, Chicago WS, and Texas Rangers could absolutely use a big bat added to the middle of their order and aren’t married to a DH. The White Sox are also trying to show their rebuild is over and with Giolito jumping out as an ace, now is the time.

 

He is NOT "fully healthy," and when we signed him, he was an OF'er about to be used primarily as a DH.

 

Now, he's a DH who can play OF in NL parks.

 

Teams may realize part of the reason he was relatively healthy the last two years was precisely because he was almost a FT DH.

 

To me, he's worth $22M- not more and not much less.

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlbtr-live-chat-465.html

 

Mlbtr chat expects JDM to opt out. He’s a candidate for the CWS. He predicted a 4 yr $80 mil deal

[Tedballgame]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlbtr-live-chat-465.html

 

Mlbtr chat expects JDM to opt out. He’s a candidate for the CWS. He predicted a 4 yr $80 mil deal

Great post. Very informative. Had no idea.

[moonslav59]

So, if he stays in Boston, he gets $63.5M/3.

 

If he opts out he might get $80M/4 plus the $2.5M for opting out. He's basically adding an extra year for $19M.

 

Right?

[jacksonianmarch]

So, if he stays in Boston, he gets $63.5M/3.

 

If he opts out he might get $80M/4 plus the $2.5M for opting out. He's basically adding an extra year for $19M.

 

Right?

 

The big thing for JD is that it adds a year, but it adds his year 35 season. How much can he reasonably get for his age 35 season? $19 mil isn't too bad

[moonslav59]

The big thing for JD is that it adds a year, but it adds his year 35 season. How much can he reasonably get for his age 35 season? $19 mil isn't too bad

 

It's definitely worth it, if the projected offer is for real.

 

It also would mean he and his contract are tradeable, assuming he does not opt out.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think his contract is tradeable. I also think they can get a hell of a prospect if they pay some of it down too

[VJCPatriot]

I’m ok with jd leaving cos we need cap relief. But yes our lineup will miss him. Then again we have a farm system for a reason. Next man up!

[Swiharts Ghost]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlbtr-live-chat-465.html

 

Mlbtr chat expects JDM to opt out. He’s a candidate for the CWS. He predicted a 4 yr $80 mil deal

 

I can see this no doubt great fit .

[Swiharts Ghost]

So, if he stays in Boston, he gets $63.5M/3.

 

If he opts out he might get $80M/4 plus the $2.5M for opting out. He's basically adding an extra year for $19M.

 

Right?

 

 

Yes

[moonslav59]

Yes

 

If he's worth that at age 35, we could just counter with a similar offer, if he opts out.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Moon why?? Are we trying to reboot or not ?

[moonslav59]

Moon why?? Are we trying to reboot or not ?

 

I didn't say I wanted to offer him that- just that we could, if we wanted.

 

I'm for trading JD, if he doesn't opt out. I'm still not sure he will. It makes more sense to opt out after 2020.

[Swiharts Ghost]

It does .The CWS may be desperate enough to really make this a special Reboot winter .I hope it happens in a week not a year .