The JD opt out

[notin]

You believe that?

 

You think Eovaldi would get just a $8.3M/3 year offer, if he was a FA this winter? (My guess is he'd get at least that for 1 year.)

 

Price would only get $26M/3? Really? (My guess is he'd get $45M/3 easily.)

 

I know these guys have injury issues, but if Brett Anderson can get $15.8M/1 from the Dodgers with his long history of injury, my guess is some GM would value both of these guys way more than this.

 

I could be off with my numbers but not by that much.

 

Not what it means. The surplus trade value is a measure of projected WAR (converted to USD) vs projected/remaining salary...

[moonslav59]

Not what it means. The surplus trade value is a measure of projected WAR (converted to USD) vs projected/remaining salary...

 

The way harmony was using it hinted that my projected money needed to include in a trade was way too low.

 

[notin]

The way harmony was using it hinted that my projected money needed to include in a trade was way too low.

 

 

No. It’s performance vs money for comparing to other players for trading purposes. It’s a well done site...

[moonslav59]

No. It’s performance vs money for comparing to other players for trading purposes. It’s a well done site...

 

I know what the site is, but harmony used those numbers in response to my post about about how much money we might need to chip in when trying to trade Price or Eovaldi.

[harmony]

You think Eovaldi would get just a $8.3M/3 year offer, if he was a FA this winter? (My guess is he'd get at least that for 1 year.)

How much would a team pay an injury-prone starter who turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year?

[Bellhorn04]

How much would a team pay an injury-prone starter who turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year?

 

If he was a free agent right now, my guess would be a one-year offer for 5 million, with additional amounts based on starts or appearances.

[moonslav59]

How much would a team pay an injury-prone starter who turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year?

 

If history has anything to do with it, a lot more than you and I think he'd get.

 

GMs have been known to pay a lot for pitchers with long history of injury or low recent WAR totals.

 

For God's sake, DD just signed a guy to 4 years at $17M a year. Word was, that guy had high interest from other teams, including the well-respected management team of the Astros.

 

[moonslav59]

If he was a free agent right now, my guess would be a one-year offer for 5 million, with additional amounts based on starts or appearances.

 

My guess is, he's get $25M/3, $18M/2 or $10M/1 with incentives.

[harmony]

I know these guys have injury issues, but if Brett Anderson can get $15.8M/1 from the Dodgers with his long history of injury, my guess is some GM would value both of these guys way more than this.

Last offseason shortly after his 31st birthday in February, Brett Anderson signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Oakland Athletics after posting 2.9 fWAR in his four previous injury-plagued seasons, including 0.9 fWAR in 2018.

 

Nathan Eovaldi turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year.

[moonslav59]

Last offseason shortly after his 31st birthday in February, Brett Anderson signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Oakland Athletics after posting 2.9 fWAR in his four previous injury-plagued seasons, including 0.9 fWAR in 2018.

 

Nathan Eovaldi turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year.

 

Last season, Eovaldi signed a $17M x 4 year deal after posting a 2.9 fWAR over the previous 3 seasons combined. He was about to turn 29 in February.

 

You really think 1 more injury year brings his value down to $1.5M/1?

[moonslav59]

Last offseason shortly after his 31st birthday in February, Brett Anderson signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Oakland Athletics after posting 2.9 fWAR in his four previous injury-plagued seasons, including 0.9 fWAR in 2018.

 

Nathan Eovaldi turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year.

 

Last off season, Anibal Sanchez, who has not pitched over 157 IP in 5 seasons, signed for $19M/2. Yes, he was coming off a 3.0 bWAR season, but his previous 3 seasons totaled -1.6 combined. His 4 year bWAR was 1.4.

 

30 year old, Garrett Richards, yes, the guy who pitched under 140 IP total in his 3 previous seasons (1.5 bWAR), signed for $15.5M/2.

 

Be honest, harmony, do you really think Eovaldi would get just $1.5M/1 or even $5M/1 as a FA this winter?

 

[jacksonianmarch]

If Eovaldi was a FA after this year, he would get a heavily incentivized 1 yr deal with a base in the $3 mil range and likely up to $7 mil in incentives

[moonslav59]

If Eovaldi was a FA after this year, he would get a heavily incentivized 1 yr deal with a base in the $3 mil range and likely up to $7 mil in incentives

 

How is he any different from Garrett Richards?

[jacksonianmarch]

How is he any different from Garrett Richards?

 

Garrett Richards was an ace when healthy. Eovaldi hasn't been healthy nor an ace

[Swiharts Ghost]

Maybe go after J;A hapless ?.. nahhhh

[notin]

Last off season, Anibal Sanchez, who has not pitched over 157 IP in 5 seasons, signed for $19M/2. Yes, he was coming off a 3.0 bWAR season, but his previous 3 seasons totaled -1.6 combined. His 4 year bWAR was 1.4.

 

30 year old, Garrett Richards, yes, the guy who pitched under 140 IP total in his 3 previous seasons (1.5 bWAR), signed for $15.5M/2.

 

Be honest, harmony, do you really think Eovaldi would get just $1.5M/1 or even $5M/1 as a FA this winter?

 

 

If I was a GM and Nathan Eovaldi’s agent approached me about a 1year / $5mill contract, I’d pass...

[Bellhorn04]

If I was a GM and Nathan Eovaldi’s agent approached me about a 1year / $5mill contract, I’d pass...

 

I doubt that.

[notin]

I doubt that.

 

Probably because I’ve been so complimentary of his durability.

 

The Sox need bullpen help. Think a 1 year $5mill contract for Arodys Vizcaino is a good idea?

[moonslav59]

Garrett Richards was an ace when healthy. Eovaldi hasn't been healthy nor an ace

 

Really? What for 1 year?

 

His best year he pitched just 168.2 IP (2.61 ERA/1.04 WHIP). His only other decent season was the following year (2015) when he went 15-12 3.65/1.24 in 207 IP. He then did jack for 3 straight years- never going over 77 IP.

 

Come on, Jacko. An "ace?"

 

Yes, for those 2 short seasons, Richards was better than Eovaldi ever was, but that was way back in 2014 & 2015.

 

I think the Richards-Eovaldi comp is a good one, since both have been hurt a lot the last 3 years.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

If I was a GM and Nathan Eovaldi’s agent approached me about a 1year / $5mill contract, I’d pass...

 

That's not the point. You know some GM would offer more than that.

[harmony]

Yes, for those 2 short seasons, Richards was better than Eovaldi ever was, but that was way back in 2014 & 2015.

 

I think the Richards-Eovaldi comp is a good one, since both have been hurt a lot the last 3 years.

Garrett Richards provides evidence why most teams would not offer a roughly 30-year-old injury-prone starter upwards of $5 million a year.

Edited October 15, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Garrett Richards provides evidence why most teams would not offer a roughly 30-year-old injury-prone starter upwards of $5 million a year.

 

Like all of a sudden GMs are going to learn from this one example?

 

The Padres signed Richards to $15.5M/2 after he had just finished a 3 year stretch of less than 140 IP TOTAL! Not less than 140IP per season- it was less than 140 IP total!

 

Yes, it's a fine example for GMs tolearn from, but did DD learn from it, when he signed Eovaldi to 4 years?

 

GMs pay for potential all the time. They gamble.

 

It ain't stopping over the Richards and Eovaldi examples.

 

Someone will overpay for the hope a guy will be or get healthy.

 

Last winter:

 

Ryu $18M/1 (pitched less than 200 IP in previous 4 seasons combined)

 

Anibal Sanchez $19M/2 (pitched 242 IP in 2 previous seasons)

 

Richards $15.5M/2 (see other pots)

 

Matt Harvey $11M/1 (under 345 IP in 3 years)

 

Trevor Cahill $9M/1 (under 260 IP in 3 yrs)

 

Derek Holland $7M/1 (414 IP and 4.79 ERA in 3 years)

 

For God's sake, Tyson Ross got more than $5M (204 IP & 5.21 ERA in 3 years)

 

Do I need to go back another year for more examples? This was just last winter alone.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Like all of a sudden GMs are going to learn from this one example?

 

The Padres signed Richards to $15.5M/2 after he had just finished a 3 year stretch of less than 140 IP TOTAL! Not less than 140IP per season- it was less than 140 IP total!

 

Yes, it's a fine example for GMs tolearn from, but did DD learn from it, when he signed Eovaldi to 4 years?

 

GMs pay for potential all the time. They gamble.

 

It ain't stopping over the Richards and Eovaldi examples.

 

Someone will overpay for the hope a guy will be or get healthy.

 

I agree, because starting pitching with any MLB pedigree at all is still a precious commodity. If you sign a guy like Eovaldi for a low cost you might catch lightning in a bottle. If not, 5 mill won't kill you.

[moonslav59]

I agree, because starting pitching with any MLB pedigree at all is still a precious commodity. If you sign a guy like Eovaldi for a low cost you might catch lightning in a bottle. If not, 5 mill won't kill you.

 

I'm not saying it's smart. I'm just saying it happens.

 

GMs trade proven vets for prospects. That's a gamble. They are betting on potential. They pay for potential.

 

If Eovaldi passes the physical, more than one GM would pay him way more than $5M/1. Way more.

[harmony]

Like all of a sudden GMs are going to learn from this one example?

 

The Padres signed Richards to $15.5M/2 after he had just finished a 3 year stretch of less than 140 IP TOTAL! Not less than 140IP per season- it was less than 140 IP total!

 

Yes, it's a fine example for GMs tolearn from, but did DD learn from it, when he signed Eovaldi to 4 years?

 

GMs pay for potential all the time. They gamble.

 

It ain't stopping over the Richards and Eovaldi examples.

 

Someone will overpay for the hope a guy will be or get healthy.

 

Last winter:

 

Ryu $18M/1 (pitched less than 200 IP in previous 4 seasons combined)

 

Anibal Sanchez $19M/2 (pitched 242 IP in 2 previous seasons)

 

Richards $15.5M/2 (see other pots)

 

Matt Harvey $11M/1 (under 345 IP in 3 years)

 

Trevor Cahill $9M/1 (under 260 IP in 3 yrs)

 

Derek Holland $7M/1 (414 IP and 4.79 ERA in 3 years)

 

For God's sake, Tyson Ross got more than $5M (204 IP & 5.21 ERA in 3 years)

 

Do I need to go back another year for more examples? This was just last winter alone.

All six of those starters posted at least 1.0 fWAR in 2018, not the negative 0.3 fWAR posted this year by Nathan Eovaldi.

 

Eovaldi needs to prove he is healthy enough to post a positive fWAR.

Edited October 15, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

All six of those starters posted at least 1.0 fWAR in 2018, not the negative 0.3 fWAR posted this year by Nathan Eovaldi.

 

Eovaldi needs to prove he is healthy enough to post a positive fWAR.

 

GMs don't look at just previous seasons. You don't either, when it supports your point.

 

GMs look back a few year and often hope a pitcher can repeat something like those years.

 

Eovaldi:

2.2 in 2018 (not counting playoffs)

3.2 in 2015

3.3 in 2014

 

 

[harmony]

GMs don't look at just previous seasons. You don't either, when it supports your point.

 

GMs look back a few year and often hope a pitcher can repeat something like those years.

 

Eovaldi:

2.2 in 2018 (not counting playoffs)

3.2 in 2015

3.3 in 2014

If Nathan Eovaldi were healthy enough to post a modest 1.0 fWAR this year, then his three-year stats might be meaningful. But at this point the righthander needs to prove that he's not broken (and we all hope Eovaldi is not broken).

[moonslav59]

If Nathan Eovaldi were healthy enough to post a modest 1.0 fWAR this year, then his three-year stats might be meaningful. But at this point the righthander needs to prove that he's not broken (and we all hope Eovaldi is not broken).

 

He barely pitched this year, and spent a lot of time in the pen. Finishing with a 5.08 ERA in his last 6 games didn't help, but he was showing a return of velocity.

[Behindenemylines]

JD opt out is the only way the Sox have of keeping Mookie.

[moonslav59]

JD opt out is the only way the Sox have of keeping Mookie.

 

No, we could trade him.