A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Kimmi]

Was it harmony that started using the term?

 

Can we stop using it?

 

Why should we stop using it? It's a real thing.

[S5Dewey]

Why should we stop using it? It's a real thing.

 

When things turn around again would it be negative positive regression?

[Kimmi]

When things turn around again would it be negative positive regression?

 

Well, that depends on when they turn around again.

[harmony]

In statistical terms, positive regression distinguishes regression from the generic nonstatistical regression.

[S5Dewey]

In statistical terms, positive regression distinguishes regression from the generic nonstatistical regression.

 

I'll bet you never leave home without your pocket protector firmly in place.

[harmony]

I'll bet you never leave home without your pocket protector firmly in place.

I may be a horrible dresser but I've never owned pocket protector.

 

I generally work with words, not numbers.

[oldmaninthevegasdesert]

I would venture to guess that we are somewhere between last years team and 18 team, clearly we are closer to last years team, having lost Betts,Price,and Porcello among others. I just do not see how they plan on replacing Betts lost offense. The starting pitching is suspect at best, bullpen who knows except it will see a ton of work again. They all need plus seasons for the Sox to play for the division. I just hope they are over 500. I know they are capable of more, they need things to click this year. A good start would be to come out hitting and not stopping, that could cover some flaws.

[notin]

When things turn around again would it be negative positive regression?

 

No. That's negative progression...

[moonslav59]

Why should we stop using it? It's a real thing.

 

Because it's dumb. Real things can be dumb.

[Bellhorn04]

Because it's dumb. Real things can be dumb.

 

People misunderstand the meanings of words all the time. Regression is obviously one of them.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would venture to guess that we are somewhere between last years team and 18 team, clearly we are closer to last years team, having lost Betts,Price,and Porcello among others. I just do not see how they plan on replacing Betts lost offense. The starting pitching is suspect at best, bullpen who knows except it will see a ton of work again. They all need plus seasons for the Sox to play for the division. I just hope they are over 500. I know they are capable of more, they need things to click this year. A good start would be to come out hitting and not stopping, that could cover some flaws.

 

If the trade goes through and the sox truly only add Graterol to the rotation mix, the sox will be worse than 2019. The big thing about this rebuild is going to come down within the week. If the sox lose the top pick in 2021, then their place in the standings will be crushing as they look to be worse and will not benefit from it in the draft positioning.

 

Right now, the sox have the 7th or 8th best odds to make the WS out of the AL and that's pre-Betts deal. Without Betts and at least the hope of Price, that team suffers especially without a big addition to the rotation. Add in Brian Johnson to the already anemic rotation (I would expect Graterol to start in AAA if they plan to try him as a starter) and you've got a team about to get bludgeoned on a daily basis. There is an outside chance that a team post Betts trade without major additions ends up in the 8-10 range in the draft. Top 10 picks have an enormously higher hit rate than picks outside the top 10. To lose that would be devastating and truly make 2020 a lost season

[mvp 78]

Sox will be over .500. That draft pick isn’t going to be a slam dunk.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox will be over .500. That draft pick isn’t going to be a slam dunk.

 

With a rotation of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez and BJ?

[Bellhorn04]

With a rotation of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez and BJ?

 

You're underestimating Bloom's creativity a little, I think.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’d take that under advisement if we weren’t a week from ST. With a down farm system and with money to spend but nobody to buy, it seems the die is cast for 2020. 2021 is a far different story, especially if Bloom can pump and dump some bad contracts or players with a year of control left. The 2021 FA market isn’t great, but having money allows for deals for big contracts that may be more appealing

[mvp 78]

With a rotation of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez and BJ?

 

They’ll get a better 5th starter and still have a strong offense.

[mvp 78]

You're underestimating Bloom's creativity a little, I think.

 

A lot.

[jacksonianmarch]

They’ll get a better 5th starter and still have a strong offense.

 

Perez isn’t even a 5th starter, he’s your 4th. Eovaldi hasn’t had a full healthy season in 5 years and he’s your 3. Sale hasn’t been healthy since 2017, he’s your 1.

[mvp 78]

Perez isn’t even a 5th starter, he’s your 4th. Eovaldi hasn’t had a full healthy season in 5 years and he’s your 3. Sale hasn’t been healthy since 2017, he’s your 1.

 

Perez will be better than Happ and Paxton.

[Bellhorn04]

Perez isn’t even a 5th starter, he’s your 4th. Eovaldi hasn’t had a full healthy season in 5 years and he’s your 3. Sale hasn’t been healthy since 2017, he’s your 1.

 

Paxton and German are gone for months.

 

Severino pitched 12 innings last year.

 

You loathe Happ and wanted him long gone, but now you're stuck with him again.

[notin]

Perez isn’t even a 5th starter, he’s your 4th. Eovaldi hasn’t had a full healthy season in 5 years and he’s your 3. Sale hasn’t been healthy since 2017, he’s your 1.

 

Ooh!! OOh I can play that, too.

 

Cole is your obvious 1. He's coming off a career high in IP.

 

Severino is your 2. He threw 12 IP last year.

 

Paxton is your #3. WEll, exceot for him being out for a while. So...

 

German in your #3. WEll, except for him being out for a while. So...

 

Tanaka is your #3. His elbow is a ticking time bomb.

 

Happ is your number 4. You know, the guy the Yankees want gone. The $17mill 38yo Happ.

 

Montgomery is your #5. He has 31 IP in the last 3 years.

 

You guys might lose out to a Tampa team whose entire payroll is less than Cole and Stanton....

[notin]

Perez will be better than Happ and Paxton.

 

Perez has a massive leg up on Paxton and German in that he is capable of pitching and allowed to do so...

[jacksonianmarch]

Perez will be better than Happ and Paxton.

 

That sounds like a sig bet to me

[jacksonianmarch]

Ooh!! OOh I can play that, too.

 

Cole is your obvious 1. He's coming off a career high in IP.

 

Severino is your 2. He threw 12 IP last year.

 

Paxton is your #3. WEll, exceot for him being out for a while. So...

 

German in your #3. WEll, except for him being out for a while. So...

 

Tanaka is your #3. His elbow is a ticking time bomb.

 

Happ is your number 4. You know, the guy the Yankees want gone. The $17mill 38yo Happ.

 

Montgomery is your #5. He has 31 IP in the last 3 years.

 

You guys might lose out to a Tampa team whose entire payroll is less than Cole and Stanton....

 

Lol. Enjoy being a distant third or maybe fourth this year. Cole and Sevy is the best 1-2 punch in baseball outside of Washington. Paxton isn’t dead, he will be back. German will also be back. Tanaka is a postseason ace and a good mid rotation starter in the regular season. Happ is a healthy veteran, who knows what he gives. JMont is finally healthy and throwing well with a good rookie season behind him. We have depth behind these guys. Yanks rotation will be light years ahead of the Sox. Light years. And the standings will show it.

[a700hitter]

Ooh!! OOh I can play that, too.

 

Cole is your obvious 1. He's coming off a career high in IP.

 

Severino is your 2. He threw 12 IP last year.

 

Paxton is your #3. WEll, exceot for him being out for a while. So...

 

German in your #3. WEll, except for him being out for a while. So...

 

Tanaka is your #3. His elbow is a ticking time bomb.

 

Happ is your number 4. You know, the guy the Yankees want gone. The $17mill 38yo Happ.

 

Montgomery is your #5. He has 31 IP in the last 3 years.

 

You guys might lose out to a Tampa team whose entire payroll is less than Cole and Stanton....

Their rotation is looking pretty good to me.

[notin]

Lol. Enjoy being a distant third or maybe fourth this year. Cole and Sevy is the best 1-2 punch in baseball outside of Washington. Paxton isn’t dead, he will be back. German will also be back. Tanaka is a postseason ace and a good mid rotation starter in the regular season. Happ is a healthy veteran, who knows what he gives. JMont is finally healthy and throwing well with a good rookie season behind him. We have depth behind these guys. Yanks rotation will be light years ahead of the Sox. Light years. And the standings will show it.

 

Ooooh. So you only do the positives for the Yankees and the negatives for the Sox...

[jacksonianmarch]

Ooooh. So you only do the positives for the Yankees and the negatives for the Sox...

 

The negatives for the Yanks aren’t really there. We have depth. We have power. We have lefties, righties, kids, veterans, pretty much everything.

 

In terms of the Sox, it’s hard to be positive about a rotation that is led by a guy who couldn’t pitch past July the last two seasons and is coming off PRP for an elbow issue and a sudden loss of velo for a shoulder issue. The two is ERod, who was great last year. Eovaldi is a below average starter who doesn’t stay healthy as your three. Your four just plain sucks and didn’t even finish last year in a rotation. Your five is Brian Johnson, a guy who literally nobody wanted when he was DFA’d. The depth includes Neck Tat and literally nobody else. The rotation pre Price trade looked rough. Post Price trade, it looks abysmal, especially if even the Sox view Brusdar as a reliever

[Maxbialystock]

Arguing Sox vs. Yankees at this point is futile--to me, anyway--because they have a solid lineup, rotation, and bullpen. The Sox have a pretty solid lineup, even without Mookie, but a so-so rotation and bullpen. DD's "fix" to the rotation has proven to be expensive and possibly illusory,and there never was much of a fix to the bullpen (Kimbrel notwithstanding).

 

Nevertheless, I am looking forward to the season.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Maxbialystock

[a700hitter]

Arguing Sox vs. Yankees at this point is futile--to me, anyway--because they have a solid lineup, rotation, and bullpen. The Sox have a pretty solid lineup, even without Mookie, but a so-so rotation and bullpen. DD's "fix" to the rotation has proven to be expensive and possibly illusory,and there never was much of a fix to the bullpen (Kimbrel notwithstanding).

A "so-so" rotation? Sale, ERod, Perez, Eovaldi, and who? We don't even have 5 starters.

[jacksonianmarch]

And 3 of those starters have significant injury, production or both concerns