A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I was ready to counter with Nick Anderson, the lights-out Ray acquired by Bloom and Co, but...

 

2nd Half: Anderson 2.28 ERA, .180 BA, 52 Ks in 27.2 IP, 0.75 WHIP

2nd Half: Pomeranz 1.96 ERA, .161 BA, 57 Ks in 36.2 IP, 0.81 WHIP

 

I saw a Pomeranz start in person vs. Washington in the Spring and he was brutal. What a turnaround, even if it was in the NL. The fact that he was bad for over a year-and-a-half should remind both Red Sox and Yankee fans of how quickly change can come for professional pitchers.

 

Pitchers are so unpredictable. A very fine line between success and failure at this level.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All the more reason why teams need productive minor systems that can crank out quality pitching and hitters.

 

 

Ours is above average with hitters and bullpen pitchers, but rock bottom in supplying starters.

 

MLB TV did a bit just yesterday showing origins of position players for World Series champs for the decade. They analyzed how winning teams were built, through draft and development, trades, free agent signings. Most big stars were homegrown, but something like 70% of starting pitching was acquired from other systems.

[Bellhorn04]

MLB TV did a bit just yesterday showing origins of position players for World Series champs for the decade. They analyzed how winning teams were built, through draft and development, trades, free agent signings. Most big stars were homegrown, but something like 70% of starting pitching was acquired from other systems.

 

Sure sounds like the Red Sox formula.

[cp176]

I was ready to counter with Nick Anderson, the lights-out Ray acquired by Bloom and Co, but...

 

2nd Half: Anderson 2.28 ERA, .180 BA, 52 Ks in 27.2 IP, 0.75 WHIP

2nd Half: Pomeranz 1.96 ERA, .161 BA, 57 Ks in 36.2 IP, 0.81 WHIP

 

I saw a Pomeranz start in person vs. Washington in the Spring and he was brutal. What a turnaround, even if it was in the NL. The fact that he was bad for over a year-and-a-half should remind both Red Sox and Yankee fans of how quickly change can come for professional pitchers.

 

Pomeranz's second half pleases me greatly (right Slasher). I was a big fan of the initial trade. His success now does not surprise me. Big kid, big arm, youth was on his side.

[moonslav59]

All the more reason why teams need productive minor systems that can crank out quality pitching and hitters.

 

 

Ours is above average with hitters and bullpen pitchers, but rock bottom in supplying starters.

 

Has been not "is."

[moonslav59]

Those questioning the Pomeranz money know that he was the best reliever in baseball in the second half last year, right? He was better than Chapman. Better than Hader. Better than everyone. He found his velocity again and his breaking ball in shorter outings became just lights out

 

I thought you once said, "Once you lose your velocity, you never get it back." Maybe that just applies to current Sox pitchers.

 

Pom has been great for short stretches before. Porcello was great for one long stretch.

 

I'm thinking Porcello has a better outlook than Pom, but I've been wrong before.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought you once said, "Once you lose your velocity, you never get it back." Maybe that just applies to current Sox pitchers.

 

I think he meant in shorter outings?

[harmony]

I thought you once said, "Once you lose your velocity, you never get it back." Maybe that just applies to current Sox pitchers.

 

Pom has been great for short stretches before. Porcello was great for one long stretch.

 

I'm thinking Porcello has a better outlook than Pom, but I've been wrong before.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Drew Pomeranz 23rd among this year's free agents with a projected two-year, $16 million contract while ranking Rick Porcello 31st with a projected one-year, $11 million contract:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

 

Kyle Gibson, whom MLB Trade Rumors ranked 19th with a projected two-year, $18 million contract, landed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

Edited November 28, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

How's this?

 

Eovaldi (+$6M) & Chavis to Seattle for Dee Gordon

(It's not about acquiring Gordon; it's about saving big money. Gordon has one year left at $13.5M with a $1M buyout for '21. His luxury tax hit is just $10M. Eovaldi is owed $17M for 3 more years. We pay $2M a year, making it $15M. We save $5M on the tax budget in 2020 then $15M for 2021 and 2022.) Gordon plays 2B in 2020 and then we free up more money to keep Betts or sign other free agents.

 

Price (+$6M) & Velazquez to San Diego for Wil Myers

(Again, this is not about acquiring Myers; it's about saving even bigger money. Myers is owed $22.5M x 3 years, but his luxury tax hit is just $13.8M x 3. Price is owed $32M x 3, but we'd pay $2M a year x 3, making it $30M for SD. His luxury tax cost is $31M-$2M=29. We'd save over $15M on the tax budget. Myers would play 1B or maybe some corner OF.)

 

Tax budget savings:

2020: $20M

2021: $35M

2022: $35M

 

If we trade JBJ, we'd have plenty of money to sign some FA pitchers this winter and next.

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Drew Pomeranz 23rd among this year's free agents with a projected two-year, $16 million contract while ranking Rick Porcello 31st with a projected one-year, $11 million contract:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

 

Kyle Gibson, whom MLB Trade Rumors ranked 19th with a projected two-year, $18 million contract, landed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

 

MLBTR's rankings are based on total money projected not $/yr. If Porcello is projected at $11M/1, it's not hard to imagine he's worth more than $18M/2.

[moonslav59]

I think he meant in shorter outings?

 

He was talking about Sale.

[harmony]

How's this?

 

Eovaldi (+$6M) & Chavis to Seattle for Dee Gordon

(It's not about acquiring Gordon; it's about saving big money. Gordon has one year left at $13.5M with a $1M buyout for '21. His luxury tax hit is just $10M. Eovaldi is owed $17M for 3 more years. We pay $2M a year, making it $15M. We save $5M on the tax budget in 2020 then $15M for 2021 and 2022.) Gordon plays 2B in 2020 and then we free up more money to keep Betts or sign other free agents.

 

Price (+$6M) & Velazquez to San Diego for Wil Myers

(Again, this is not about acquiring Myers; it's about saving even bigger money. Myers is owed $22.5M x 3 years, but his luxury tax hit is just $13.8M x 3. Price is owed $32M x 3, but we'd pay $2M a year x 3, making it $30M for SD. His luxury tax cost is $31M-$2M=29. We'd save over $15M on the tax budget. Myers would play 1B or maybe some corner OF.)

 

Tax budget savings:

2020: $20M

2021: $35M

2022: $35M

 

If we trade JBJ, we'd have plenty of money to sign some FA pitchers this winter and next.

With a negative trade value of $29.5 million, Nathan Eovaldi is too big a gamble for the Seattle Mariners despite the trade's favorable assessment at Baseball Trade Values:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16831/

 

With his injury history, Eovaldi's downside outweighs his modest upside.

 

As a side note, Steamer projects Dee Gordon and Michael Chavis each with 2020 WAR of 0.9 in 130 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8203&position=2B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17321&position=1B/2B

 

Additionally, Gordon and Chavis each have an 80-day suspension on their record for a banned substance.

[jacksonianmarch]

I thought you once said, "Once you lose your velocity, you never get it back." Maybe that just applies to current Sox pitchers.

 

Pom has been great for short stretches before. Porcello was great for one long stretch.

 

I'm thinking Porcello has a better outlook than Pom, but I've been wrong before.

 

Pomeranz had a velo spike going in one inning spurts. That’s pretty consistent with what’s expected

[Bellhorn04]

How's this?

 

Eovaldi (+$6M) & Chavis to Seattle for Dee Gordon

(It's not about acquiring Gordon; it's about saving big money. Gordon has one year left at $13.5M with a $1M buyout for '21. His luxury tax hit is just $10M. Eovaldi is owed $17M for 3 more years. We pay $2M a year, making it $15M. We save $5M on the tax budget in 2020 then $15M for 2021 and 2022.) Gordon plays 2B in 2020 and then we free up more money to keep Betts or sign other free agents.

 

Price (+$6M) & Velazquez to San Diego for Wil Myers

(Again, this is not about acquiring Myers; it's about saving even bigger money. Myers is owed $22.5M x 3 years, but his luxury tax hit is just $13.8M x 3. Price is owed $32M x 3, but we'd pay $2M a year x 3, making it $30M for SD. His luxury tax cost is $31M-$2M=29. We'd save over $15M on the tax budget. Myers would play 1B or maybe some corner OF.)

 

Tax budget savings:

2020: $20M

2021: $35M

2022: $35M

 

If we trade JBJ, we'd have plenty of money to sign some FA pitchers this winter and next.

 

I think with all those savings, we'd have about $20 mill of room left under the $208 mill this year.

[Bellhorn04]

He was talking about Sale.

 

In the post you replied to, he was talking about Pomeranz having more velocity in shorter outings.

[Carpin]

How's this?

 

Eovaldi (+$6M) & Chavis to Seattle for Dee Gordon

(It's not about acquiring Gordon; it's about saving big money. Gordon has one year left at $13.5M with a $1M buyout for '21. His luxury tax hit is just $10M. Eovaldi is owed $17M for 3 more years. We pay $2M a year, making it $15M. We save $5M on the tax budget in 2020 then $15M for 2021 and 2022.) Gordon plays 2B in 2020 and then we free up more money to keep Betts or sign other free agents.

 

Price (+$6M) & Velazquez to San Diego for Wil Myers

(Again, this is not about acquiring Myers; it's about saving even bigger money. Myers is owed $22.5M x 3 years, but his luxury tax hit is just $13.8M x 3. Price is owed $32M x 3, but we'd pay $2M a year x 3, making it $30M for SD. His luxury tax cost is $31M-$2M=29. We'd save over $15M on the tax budget. Myers would play 1B or maybe some corner OF.)

 

Tax budget savings:

2020: $20M

2021: $35M

2022: $35M

 

If we trade JBJ, we'd have plenty of money to sign some FA pitchers this winter and next.

 

I can see the 2nd trade happening, as far as I know SD doesn't have luxury tax concerns, if the Sox add more money it might work, probably $15M (3 x $5M). SD is a small market team, $10M more in salary for only one player could be a deal breaker for them.

 

The 1st proposal it's one sided in the Sox favor (no matter what the trade values site say), the Mariners will be taking on $45M ($51M - $6M) against $14.5M

[moonslav59]

In the post you replied to, he was talking about Pomeranz having more velocity in shorter outings.

 

Okay, yes. Most pitchers can pitch with higher velocity in shorter outings.

[moonslav59]

I can see the 2nd trade happening, as far as I know SD doesn't have luxury tax concerns, if the Sox add more money it might work, probably $15M (3 x $5M). SD is a small market team, $10M more in salary for only one player could be a deal breaker for them.

 

The 1st proposal it's one sided in the Sox favor (no matter what the trade values site say), the Mariners will be taking on $45M ($51M - $6M) against $14.5M

 

We could pitch in more money, especially in years 2021 and 2022, after Gordon's contract drops off.

 

They do get Chavis, too, and he will cost very little and has 4+ years of team control.

 

All Eovaldi has to do to change his negative trade value if pitch well for a month or two to start 2020.

[Carpin]

We could pitch in more money, especially in years 2021 and 2022, after Gordon's contract drops off.

 

They do get Chavis, too, and he will cost very little and has 4+ years of team control.

 

All Eovaldi has to do to change his negative trade value if pitch well for a month or two to start 2020.

 

I'm with you in this approach, if the Sox send more money to Seattle in year 2 and 3 they can make it work for both teams, talking about Chavis it all depends on what the other team thinks about him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm against trading Eovaldi, especially if he pitches well, because he's the one guy of the big three that I feel hasn't yet hit his peak. He's also getting paid almost half of Price and Sale. I understand that both those reasons make him the more attractive trade target for most markets looking for pitching... so if trading Evo is the best way to keep Betts, than so be it.

 

Forgot to add another reason to keep Nate: He's a righty with success vs. the righty-Yankee batting order (unlike southpaws Price and Sale so much).

Edited November 28, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[jacksonianmarch]

That won’t work though. If you’re paying down a contract, then the amount paid counts against the LT as AAV even if the money comes in the final two years of the deal.

 

Let’s say the Sox pay the mariners $6 mil in 2022 and $6 mil in 2022, the lux tax implication will be $4 mil per year AAV

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Then there's this:

 

Mookie Betts rumors

WWW.MLB.COM

---

With Mookie Betts entering the final year of his contract in 2020, the '18 American League Most Valuable Player Award winner will be the focus of plenty of trade talks this offseason. Below is a list of the latest news and rumors surrounding the 27-year-old outfielder.

[jacksonianmarch]

For example, if Stanton opts into his contract after 2020, the Marlins will pay the Yankees $30 mil in 2021. For lux tax purposes, the Yanks are getting a discount of $3 mil per year over the 10 years the yanks took on even though the payout is going to be in a lump sum

[moonslav59]

That won’t work though. If you’re paying down a contract, then the amount paid counts against the LT as AAV even if the money comes in the final two years of the deal.

 

Let’s say the Sox pay the mariners $6 mil in 2022 and $6 mil in 2022, the lux tax implication will be $4 mil per year AAV

 

Yes, I understood that to be the case, but Seatlle would need the actual payments in 2021 ans 2022.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, I understood that to be the case, but Seatlle would need the actual payments in 2021 ans 2022.

 

I get that, but it doesn't help your Lux Tax situation all that much.

[moonslav59]

I get that, but it doesn't help your Lux Tax situation all that much.

 

It would for '21 & '22

[jacksonianmarch]

But the mandate is for 2020, right? I know they backed off that a bit, but I am pretty sure the Sox are making a concerted effort to get below the LT in 2020 so as to avoid the 50% overage and reset for later.

[OH FOY]

Pomeranz is one of the most unpredictable Pitchers there is. He's all over the place. Big gamble with that guy. Might be Koufax, or he might be Brian Johnson. haha

Getting back to Johnson.

Don't go by some games, a this point with Pomeranz. Lets see a whole season with him, as a Reliever.

Edited November 29, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

But the mandate is for 2020, right? I know they backed off that a bit, but I am pretty sure the Sox are making a concerted effort to get below the LT in 2020 so as to avoid the 50% overage and reset for later.

 

It's a goal, not a mandate LOL

 

I don't see how they can do it without causing something of an uproar among the faithful. It's gonna be interesting to watch.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's a goal, not a mandate LOL

 

I don't see how they can do it without causing something of an uproar among the faithful. It's gonna be interesting to watch.

 

I honestly don’t believe much that comes out of Kennedy’s mouth, especially when he’s cleaning up a PR mess before tickets come available