A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Joe Mauer posted fWAR valued at $96.7 million in the first four years of his eight-year, $178 million contract while David Price has posted fWAR valued at $93 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

 

One player came closer than the other to meeting his contract in the first four years.

 

7 of the 11 deals over $25M/yr x 7 are able to be judged.

 

5 Good: Kershaw, Scherzer, ARod1, Verlander, ARod2

 

2 Bad: Miggy & Price

 

Of the 12 deals between $20-25M that can be judged, now, I find...

 

3 Good

3 S-So

6 Bad

 

I'd say the idea that the vast majority of mega and mega long deals go bad is unfounded.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I meant to put price in red. (Fixed it.)

 

One could argue Price is "pending."

 

One could also argue Price deserves extra credit for his 2018 postseason performance. I certainly would.

[Bellhorn04]

7 of the 11 deals over $25M/yr x 7 are able to be judged.

 

5 Good: Kershaw, Scherzer, ARod1, Verlander, ARod2

 

2 Bad: Miggy & Price

 

Of the 12 deals between $20-25M that can be judged, now, I find...

 

3 Good

3 S-So

6 Bad

 

I'd say the idea that the vast majority of mega and mega long deals go bad is unfounded.

 

Interesting.

[harmony]

One could also argue Price deserves extra credit for his 2018 postseason performance. I certainly would.

Should Mookie Betts be penalized contractually for the .210/.300/.323/.623 line he posted over 14 games in the same postseason?

[Slasher9]

for the mega deals:

both of Arod's should be red.

machado should be red

harper will be red

i could argue that kershaw should be red

 

for the other deals:

stanton will be red

cano should be red

texiera should be red

agon should be red

kemp should be dead red

[Bellhorn04]

Should Mookie Betts be penalized contractually for the .210/.300/.323/.623 line he posted over 14 games in the same postseason?

 

Yes. But of course credited for his other contributions-defense and baserunning.

 

I'm a firm believer that postseason numbers should be factored into player valuations SOMEHOW.

[notin]

Should Mookie Betts be penalized contractually for the .210/.300/.323/.623 line he posted over 14 games in the same postseason?

 

He should be penalized the same amount as Machado was penalized for his .213/.268/.382/.650 in his 23 post-season games....

[harmony]

for the mega deals:

both of Arod's should be red.

machado should be red

harper will be red

i could argue that kershaw should be red

 

for the other deals:

stanton will be red

cano should be red

texiera should be red

agon should be red

kemp should be dead red

Despite posting only 0.8 fWAR, valued at $7.9 million, this year, Robinson Cano has posted 21.4 fWAR, valued at $169.8 million, six years into his 10-year, $240 million contract.

 

The Cano contract appears better than the contract for David Price, who has posted 10.6 fWAR valued at $85 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

[a700hitter]

Cubs have hired David Ross as manager and now they are hiring Napoli to join their coaching staff. Does either one have any coaching or managerial experience? It just goes to prove that the people who fill these roles are very fungible and don't need much if any experience.

[notin]

Cubs have hired David Ross as manager and now they are hiring Napoli to join their coaching staff. Does either one have any coaching or managerial experience? It just goes to prove that the people who fill these roles are very fungible and don't need much if any experience.

 

Maybe they want the entire coaching staff to be former members of the 2013 Red Sox. Maybe Shane Victorino will be the hitting coach, Ryan Dempster as the pitching coach, and Mike Carp will be the bench coach...

[notin]

Cubs have hired David Ross as manager and now they are hiring Napoli to join their coaching staff. Does either one have any coaching or managerial experience? It just goes to prove that the people who fill these roles are very fungible and don't need much if any experience.

 

 

Before we accept them as fungible, maybe we should see if it works, first...

[a700hitter]

Before we accept them as fungible, maybe we should see if it works, first...

If it doesn't work, we may have to criticize the icon Theo.

[moonslav59]

for the mega deals:

both of Arod's should be red.

machado should be red

harper will be red

i could argue that kershaw should be red

 

for the other deals:

stanton will be red

cano should be red

texiera should be red

agon should be red

kemp should be dead red

 

I can see AGon, Tex and Kemp being red, but Cano's is so-so and/or pending. Stanton has 8 years left. You may think he will be red, but he has to be, at worst, pending.

 

Machado & Harper have to be pending since they just finished year 1.

 

ARod's deals were NOT red. No way. (ARod3, yes, but that wasn't a 7+ year deal.)

 

I'll recatagorize things with those 3 changed to red.

 

11 Deals over $25M/yr x 7+ yrs

5 Good

4 Pending

2 Bad

 

17 Deals between $20M/yr to $25M/yr x 7+ yrs

4 Good

4 Pending

9 Bad

 

Seems like the mega deals are better than the semi-mega deals.

 

Combined (all $20+M)

9 Good

8 Pending

11 Bad

 

Even these numbers do not indicate a horrible record for big signings. I'm thinking Altuve's and Votto's deals will end up being good, and if we assume all the other 6 pending end up being bad (Trout, Arenado, Machado, Harper, Stanton & Cano), the record would be:

 

11 Good

 

17 Bad

 

That's about 60% bad & 40% good, which does not appear to be as bad as many make it out to be.

 

If I had to vote on those 6 and their projections, I'd put Trout, Arenado and Cano as so-so, but maybe Cano could be bad, my totals would be

11 Good

3 so-so

14 bad

 

That's only 50% bad.

 

Edited November 15, 2019 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes. But of course credited for his other contributions-defense and baserunning.

 

I'm a firm believer that postseason numbers should be factored into player valuations SOMEHOW.

 

Allow me to embellish -- with what I saw in the '18 postseason (along with some stats): First, Mookie did rip some balls deep or right at people or that were caught (like Reddick's bases-loaded dive). Let's just stay with the Houston series, the best and most intense of October: Betts led off four of the five games with three hits and a hit by pitch, and scored the first run of the game in three straight wins. Nothing sets the tone more for a team than scoring the first run in a playoff game, and Betts did that best. He also singled, stole second and scored the first run of the first game of the World Series; LA knew it was in for it.

 

Being disruptive on the bases is another huge asset, like later when he walked, ran around the bases and scored on a ground-out. Then there's defense -- and not just the leap on the Altuve interference call, robbing Bregman the next day, and the best throw of the postseason to nail Kemp, but all the Gold Glove sprints that made tough flies and pops look routine.

[moonslav59]

Post season sample sizes are usually too small to weigh heavily on a player's value. When they do become significant after many post seasons, one should also factor in how spread out most of the sample sizes are.

 

Yes, they should count, but I feel only proportionate to the sample size.

[Bellhorn04]

Post season sample sizes are usually too small to weigh heavily on a player's value. When they do become significant after many post seasons, one should also factor in how spread out most of the sample sizes are.

 

Yes, they should count, but I feel only proportionate to the sample size.

 

All they really have to do is tabulate using the same WAR model they use for the regular season. Should be a piece of cake.

[moonslav59]

All they really have to do is tabulate using the same WAR model they use for the regular season. Should be a piece of cake.

 

Or, WAR/gm since WAR rewards those who play more than others, but we still have to realize the sample size is small.

[Bellhorn04]

Or, WAR/gm since WAR rewards those who play more than others, but we still have to realize the sample size is small.

 

Oh yeah. The WAR numbers would be relatively small anyway. But it would be better than nothing.

[S5Dewey]

baseball's unwritten rules > whatever pedroia thinks/wants.

and it aint even close.

he should have kept his mouth shut. snitches get stitches

 

Apparently the Steelers players know what it means to "be a good teammate". f*** with one of us, you get us all.

[Bellhorn04]

Apparently the Steelers players know what it means to "be a good teammate". f*** with one of us, you get us all.

 

In April/18 the Sox showed how to do the reprisal thing properly, when Joe Kelly drilled Tyler Austin of the Yanks after a hard slide.

 

Do it right away and drill the guy in the back, that's how you do it.

[jacksonianmarch]

The mega deals aren’t for marginal talent. Typically, when you pay for a HOF level talent, you get at least some return on that investment. Where teams really screw the pooch is when they pay players in that second tier and think the player will jump into that first tier during the contract. This is where the Pavano’s and the Clement’s jump into the fray. This is where I think Wheeler will end up this year. You’re seeing teams actually start to shy away from these players on the open market now, especially if they’re tied to draft pick comp. it’s not worth spending $100 mil on Wheeler just because you need to spend $200 mil on Cole.

[Bellhorn04]

The mega deals aren’t for marginal talent. Typically, when you pay for a HOF level talent, you get at least some return on that investment. Where teams really screw the pooch is when they pay players in that second tier and think the player will jump into that first tier during the contract. This is where the Pavano’s and the Clement’s jump into the fray. This is where I think Wheeler will end up this year. You’re seeing teams actually start to shy away from these players on the open market now, especially if they’re tied to draft pick comp. it’s not worth spending $100 mil on Wheeler just because you need to spend $200 mil on Cole.

 

Sounds about right.

[notin]

In April/18 the Sox showed how to do the reprisal thing properly, when Joe Kelly drilled Tyler Austin of the Yanks after a hard slide.

 

Do it right away and drill the guy in the back, that's how you do it.

 

And right away. If you're going to do this stuff. at the very least don't wait until the 8th inning of the next day. That's just starting a whole new issue...

[notin]

Or, WAR/gm since WAR rewards those who play more than others, but we still have to realize the sample size is small.

 

The values would be so small and clustered together, they wouldn't mean much...

[moonslav59]

The values would be so small and clustered together, they wouldn't mean much...

 

Yes, but saying Betts has, say, a 0.2 playoff WAR means less, since most don't know how his games compare to others.

[notin]

Yes, but saying Betts has, say, a 0.2 playoff WAR means less, since most don't know how his games compare to others.

 

Exactly.

 

That's why I am not a fan of post-season stats. They're typically a bunch of small samples scattered out over a number of years. Really, I keep it simple with post-season stats ("Good post-season", "bad series" type stuff) and I think any analysis beyond that is probably going to be faulty and useless...

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s random sample sizes from different seasons, that much is true. It’s hard to make inferences on players from smaller markets or who’ve only played in a couple post seasons. The guys who go every year, it’s easier to infer. Like guys from the Yanks dynasty on into the 2012 year had so much playoff AB’s that you could make an inference. Mariano you could make an inference on. Jeter to a degree. Arod, absolutely. And it’s only really viewable after a player retires. That’s around where they’d have enough AB’s or innings to stack them up. Mookie’s book has a lot more pages. What happens if he has an Ortiz a la 2013 style post season and all of a sudden his WAR jumps

[notin]

It’s random sample sizes from different seasons, that much is true. It’s hard to make inferences on players from smaller markets or who’ve only played in a couple post seasons. The guys who go every year, it’s easier to infer. Like guys from the Yanks dynasty on into the 2012 year had so much playoff AB’s that you could make an inference. Mariano you could make an inference on. Jeter to a degree. Arod, absolutely. And it’s only really viewable after a player retires. That’s around where they’d have enough AB’s or innings to stack them up. Mookie’s book has a lot more pages. What happens if he has an Ortiz a la 2013 style post season and all of a sudden his WAR jumps

 

but most players don't play every year. So then you have games 2 or 3 years apart. The player is probably not equally healthy every post-season, and in some cases the effects of aging set in.

 

Someone like Jeter had basically a full season's worth of post-season stats. And his numbers were virtually identical to his regular season numbers. But the overwhelming majority of players have scattered post-season appearances that too often get lumped into one stat line that becomes their post-season evaluation. And this isn't jut from fans; sportswriters, sportscasters, and commentators all do this, too. It's like a few random months, like every third June in a player's career, collecting those stats, and then determining he can or cannot hit in June...

[jacksonianmarch]

but most players don't play every year. So then you have games 2 or 3 years apart. The player is probably not equally healthy every post-season, and in some cases the effects of aging set in.

 

Someone like Jeter had basically a full season's worth of post-season stats. And his numbers were virtually identical to his regular season numbers. But the overwhelming majority of players have scattered post-season appearances that too often get lumped into one stat line that becomes their post-season evaluation. And this isn't jut from fans; sportswriters, sportscasters, and commentators all do this, too. It's like a few random months, like every third June in a player's career, collecting those stats, and then determining he can or cannot hit in June...

 

And guys who are able to replicate their regular season career numbers vs elite competition are more clutch than you give them credit for.

[Bellhorn04]

And guys who are able to replicate their regular season career numbers vs elite competition are more clutch than you give them credit for.

 

Agreed.