A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[OH FOY]

Frank Robinson to JD Martinez-OK.

By the time FR was 25 he hit 202 HRS. Take that back about Park, wasn't that bad. Thinking of another.

JD 34.

Edited October 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. But, it doesn't mean those prospects are useless.

 

I take "falling in love with prospects" to mean you over-value them and would not trade them, because other owners value them less.

[moonslav59]

I know they're not 7 year deals. You have 3 more years of lux tax hell as it stands. Having $77 mil AAV locked up in 3 unreliable and injury prone starters isn't a great way to build a good team. Especially if those starters end up trending down in production when they are healthy.

 

I could see us getting more innings out of those 3 SP'ers in 2020 than 2019.

[moonslav59]

THe Yankees did a great job identifying players like Voit, Urshela, Tauchman and Grigorius. But this wasn't commentary about position players.

 

Your comment was about how the Sox have not developed any starters since Buchholz and Lester - at least not in the cradle to grave fashion. This is true. But my point is, despite a lot of hype, the Yankee haven't either. In that timeframe since 2007, the Yankees have developed 4 starters this way - Severino, Montogmery, Nova and Phil Hughes. That's not exactly a lot of development over the past 12 seasons, and really, coutning Montgomery might be a bit premature given he really has not pitched all that much. So while the Sox might get an "F" in starting pitcher development, the Yankees are in the "D" to "D-" range. The big difference is, the Sox NEVER seem to have pitchers cracking anyone's top 100 list. Groome and Ball made one appearance each. Henry Owens made BA list. Not much else. And the book is far from closed on Groome. The Yankees, on the other hand, must have had more SP ranked over the past 12 years than the Sox. But it has not translated into a better revolving door of SP.

 

Really the Sox big issue is that they keep trading away the starting pitching. It's a bit of a fallacy to say they have not drafted or developed a MLB started since 2007; they just have not kept one. Montas, Beeks, Allen. All traded away. Still not a lot, but it does keep this from being an absolute "0" here...

 

We also traded away Kopech & Espinoza and RP'ers like Buttrey.

[notin]

We also traded away Kopech & Espinoza and RP'ers like Buttrey.

 

Also Shaun Anderson.

 

But I didn't even get in to the RP thing. We have used several of them in the bullpen, like Barnes, Workman, Lakins, Shawaryn, Poyner.

 

The commentary is about developing starting pitchers. The Sox have produced many pitchers in recent years..

[moonslav59]

Also Shaun Anderson.

 

But I didn't even get in to the RP thing. We have used several of them in the bullpen, like Barnes, Workman, Lakins, Shawaryn, Poyner.

 

The commentary is about developing starting pitchers. The Sox have produced many pitchers in recent years..

 

So...

 

Doubront

Montas

Allen

Beeks

Kopech

Espinosa

Anderson

Groome

Ward

Houck

Mata

 

Plus, ERod, Webster, de La Rosa (obtained as a prospects)

[moonslav59]

Samantha Power in the running for Sox GM!

 

“No, no. I don’t think it’s a good idea to rule anything out,” Samantha Power said during an event to promote her new memoir, according to The Boston Globe. But the ex-diplomat added that she also “wouldn’t rule out managing the Red Sox.”

[kenmeister]

I could see us getting more innings out of those 3 SP'ers in 2020 than 2019.

 

I would hope that the Sox are getting their trainers to work out the best possible offseason strengthening regimen for them, so that they come to 2020 spring training able to pitch for the whole season.

[moonslav59]

I would hope that the Sox are getting their trainers to work out the best possible offseason strengthening regimen for them, so that they come to 2020 spring training able to pitch for the whole season.

 

IP last 3 years:

214, 158, 147 Sale

75, 176, 107 Price

00, 111, 68 Eovaldi

137, 130, 203 ERod

 

The top 3 on the list pitched 312 IP, last year. They could pitch less or about the same, but I'm guessing they go over 400 IP. A healthy Eovaldi would almost assure it.

[Kimmi]

You won 4 titles and yes eliminated us twice. We decided to copy your plan and hence have created a well built and deep AL East champion with a pretty deep farm. You guys decided to copy our past plan and spent ridiculous and blew through your prospects like a coke fiend on payday. The depths you’re gonna fall to will be deep. You haven’t experienced this since the 90s. Enjoy it. You’re now the 2013 Yanks. Bloated contracts, no hope. And you don’t have a Cashman to dig you out.

 

Stop with the hyperbole dude.

[Larry Cook]

IP last 3 years:

214, 158, 147 Sale

75, 176, 107 Price

00, 111, 68 Eovaldi

137, 130, 203 ERod

 

The top 3 on the list pitched 312 IP, last year. They could pitch less or about the same, but I'm guessing they go over 400 IP. A healthy Eovaldi would almost assure it.

 

statistically don’t pitchers that have a huge jump in innings pitched from year 1 to year 2, have a down year in year 3?

[Michigan adam]

sure like to see 600 inning out of sale, price, and erod next year. Maybe a combined 4.00era would be reasonable.

[S5Dewey]

sure like to see 600 inning out of sale, price, and erod next year. Maybe a combined 4.00era would be reasonable.

 

IMO if someone could guarantee a combined ERA of 4.00 from our top three pitchers JH would forget all about a reset for 2020.

[jacksonianmarch]

IMO if someone could guarantee a combined ERA of 4.00 from our top three pitchers JH would forget all about a reset for 2020.

 

Not if you only get 200 innings total out of those 3

[Bellhorn04]

statistically don’t pitchers that have a huge jump in innings pitched from year 1 to year 2, have a down year in year 3?

 

I believe you're thinking of the 'Verducci Effect', an analysis by Tom Verducci, but that was only in reference to young pitchers just starting out in the big leagues.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Verducci effect was either ineffectiveness of injury. Severino fits into that category

[moonslav59]

IMO if someone could guarantee a combined ERA of 4.00 from our top three pitchers JH would forget all about a reset for 2020.

 

The 4.00 is way easier than 600 and probably even 500 IP.

 

ERA

 

Sale: career 3.03 (3.08 w BOS)

Last 3 years: 2.90, 2.11, 4.40

 

Price: career 3.31 (3.84 w BOS)

Last 3 years: 3.38, 3.58, 4.28

 

ERod: career 4.03

Last 3 years: 4.19, 3.82, 3.81

 

IP Last 3 yrs:

Sale: 214, 158, 147

Price: 75, 176, 107

ERod: 137, 130, 203

 

[Michigan adam]

The 4.00 is way easier than 600 and probably even 500 IP.

 

ERA

 

Sale: career 3.03 (3.08 w BOS)

Last 3 years: 2.90, 2.11, 4.40

 

Price: career 3.31 (3.84 w BOS)

Last 3 years: 3.38, 3.58, 4.28

 

ERod: career 4.03

Last 3 years: 4.19, 3.82, 3.81

 

IP Last 3 yrs:

Sale: 214, 158, 147

Price: 75, 176, 107

ERod: 137, 130, 203

 

 

For sure. 560-600 and 3.50 to 4.00 Is not unreasonable IF HEALTHY and RELATIVELY close to their recent success. Certainly what you hope for with their contracts(well 2 of them at least).

[notin]

For sure. 560-600 and 3.50 to 4.00 Is not unreasonable IF HEALTHY and RELATIVELY close to their recent success. Certainly what you hope for with their contracts(well 2 of them at least).

 

I believe next year, rosters expand to 26 players.

 

This means the 8 man bullpen will be all but standard. Some teams might even have 9 relievers.

 

Upshot: having a single 200 IP SP will become a rarity. A team with three 200 IP starting pitchers will be harder to find than Sasquatch...

[moonslav59]

For sure. 560-600 and 3.50 to 4.00 Is not unreasonable IF HEALTHY and RELATIVELY close to their recent success. Certainly what you hope for with their contracts(well 2 of them at least).

 

I'm expecting 3.50- tops. I can see Sale at sub 2.80, Price at sub 3.60 and ERod at sub 3.70, if healthy, and if you're saying 500-600 IP, that pretty much means they are.

 

It's the IP that is the big wild card.

[moonslav59]

I believe next year, rosters expand to 26 players.

 

This means the 8 man bullpen will be all but standard. Some teams might even have 9 relievers.

 

Upshot: having a single 200 IP SP will become a rarity. A team with three 200 IP starting pitchers will be harder to find than Sasquatch...

 

It is 26, and since we went with 13 pitchers all year, something I'm not sure we've ever done before, I'm thinking we may stay at 13 next year and add an everyday player to the mix. If we dump JD, Betts and JBJ, or two of these three, we may need some deeper bench or platoon-type players to fill those mighty shoes.

 

I doubt we totally tank on 2020, but getting a nice draft pick might not be the worst thing that ever happened to the Sox in the past 15 years.

 

[a700hitter]

• Also from Bradford’s piece, he notes that Trey Ball and Teddy Stankiewicz have reached minor league free agency and could be unlikely to remain in the Red Soxfarm system. Ball was chosen seventh overall in the 2013 draft while Stankiewicz was Boston’s second selection (45th overall) from that same class, though neither player has reached the big leagues. Bradford takes the opportunity to look back at a draft year that ended up as almost a complete miss for the Red Sox, as only five (Mauricio Dubon, Carlos Asuaje, Matt Thaiss, Gabe Speier, and Kyle Martin) of the 40 players selected have reached the majors, and none ever suited up in a Boston uniform. Still, the 2013 draft class did plant some indirect seeds for future success — Asuaje was part of the trade package the Sox sent to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel, while Speier was included as part of the Rick Porcellotrade with the Tigers.
  

Thanks Ben for whiffing on an entire draft. Was that the year he also scored big on Rusney Castillo?

[moonslav59]

Thanks Ben for whiffing on an entire draft. Was that the year he also scored big on Rusney Castillo?

 

Are you thankful for the 2017 draft?

 

How about the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 international free agent signings?

 

Where's the "Thanks DD?"

[a700hitter]

Are you thankful for the 2017 draft?

 

How about the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 international free agent signings?

 

Where's the "Thanks DD?"

Let’s see 5 years down the road which of those drafts are complete whiffs. I do than DD for 3 consecutive Division Championships.

[moonslav59]

IFA Signings:

 

Ben

J Guerra (part of Kimbrel trade)

J Almonte (part of Brad Ziegler trade)

W Rijo (part of Aaron Hill trade)

L Basabe I (part of Sale trade)

L Basabe II (other part of B Ziegler trade)

G Bautista (part of Addison Reed trade)

R Devers

J Diaz & Y Abar

D Hernandez

Y Moncada (tarded for Sale)

A Espinoza (traded for Pom)

C Acosta

D Reyes

E Bazardo

R Castillo

 

DD

H Velazquez (during restricted signing year due to Ben's blunder)

D Flores (RIP)

A Flores

D Diaz

B Bello

E Lopez

 

Best or Notable Draft Picks (Pick#)

7 Benintendi

7 T Ball

24 Marrero

26 Chavis

31 Johnson

33 Kopech (part of Sale trade)

37 Light (traded for Abad)

45 Stanki

67 Travis

81 A Rei

81 Denny

87 Callahan (part of trade for A Reed)

103 J Cosart

111 T Matheny

118 Maddox

143 Littrell

151 Buttrey (traded for Kinsler)

164 Ockimey

171 Lakins

201 Ben Taylor

231 L Allen (part of Kimbrel trade)

263 Kyle Martin

314 C Sturgeon

323 C Asuage

404 C Shepherd

411 Poyner

501 C De la Guerra

773 M Dubon (traded for Thornburg)

 

DD

12 Groome

24 Houck

26 Casas

43 C Cannon

51 Chatham

63 Brannen

64 Decker

69 M Lugo

88 Anderson (part of Nunez trade)

100 Feltman

101 Netzer

107 R Zeferjahn

118 Dalbec

137 N Song

148 Shawaryn

160 TWard

161 Scherff

178 Nogosek (part of A Reed trade)

190 D Granberg

197 C Murphy

220 J Duran

358 M Gorst

Edited October 6, 2019 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks Ben for whiffing on an entire draft. Was that the year he also scored big on Rusney Castillo?

 

That was the year he signed Rafael Devers (August/13). That takes a bit of the sting out of the 2013 draft, doesn't it?

[Nick]

Team Control (including options)

 

Contracts

 

Xander 2020-2026

Sale 2020-2024

Price 2020-2022

Eovaldi 2020-2022

Vaz 2020-2022

Dustin 2020-2021

 

sign Devers to long term contract and trade everyone else?

 

 

Technically, we can trade every other player, no? If you're going over the cliff, it might as well be a steep one.

 

Shoot for 2022 or 2023.

[moonslav59]

That was the year he signed Rafael Devers (August/13). That takes a bit of the sting out of the 2013 draft, doesn't it?

 

Also, D Hernandez. Despite the poor draft that year was better than any DD farm building year.

[moonslav59]

Team Control (including options)

 

Contracts

 

Xander 2020-2026

Sale 2020-2024

Price 2020-2022

Eovaldi 2020-2022

Vaz 2020-2022

Dustin 2020-2021

 

sign Devers to long term contract and trade everyone else?

 

 

Technically, we can trade every other player, no? If you're going over the cliff, it might as well be a steep one.

 

Shoot for 2022 or 2023.

 

LOL.

 

I could see keeping Devers, Bogey, D Hern and seeing what's offered for the others.

[Kimmi]

That was the year he signed Rafael Devers (August/13). That takes a bit of the sting out of the 2013 draft, doesn't it?

 

Theo > Ben > Dombrowski

 

Still.