A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

I could see trading Barnes. He’s a very good pitcher provided he didn’t pitch the day before. So unless the Sox have a very deep pen, he is a liability too often.

 

Of course trading Barnes isn’t a cap-clearing move like trading JD would be. The trouble with trading JD is finding the taker. The best fit is probably an AL team that needs power and has a reasonable shot at the postseason. I’m thinking the White Sox...

[moonslav59]

Looking at this group in an overall way, are we about to see addition by subtraction?

 

Almost certainly not back next year:

OPS/ERA Player (PAs/IP)

.835 Moreland 331

.787 Holt 287

.548 Nunez 174

.503 Pearce 99

.695 Swihart 29

5.52 Porcello 174

5.60 Cashner 53

7.71 Thornburg 19

 

Maybe not back next year:

.745 JBJ 558

.549 Leon 187

.348 Gorkys 50

.544 Owings 49

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I could see trading Barnes. He’s a very good pitcher provided he didn’t pitch the day before. So unless the Sox have a very deep pen, he is a liability too often.

 

Of course trading Barnes isn’t a cap-clearing move like trading JD would be. The trouble with trading JD is finding the taker. The best fit is probably an AL team that needs power and has a reasonable shot at the postseason. I’m thinking the White Sox...

 

Trading Barnes when his stock is lower is not my idea of a good move.

 

He was solid for 2-3 years, until we asked him to do more this year. Keep him as an every other day 8th inning pitcher and he'll be worth his salary in 2020- and then some.

 

Trading him at the deadline might make more sense, assuming he's doing well, and we are not in the race.

[OH FOY]

Sox having a huge promotion for next year on the tickets on site is picture of Devers, Bogey, and E-Rod. Funny no Betts or JD.

[moonslav59]

Barnes Trends:

 

K/9: 8.2> 9.6> 10.7> 14.0> 15.3

 

K/BB: 2.6> 2.3> 3.0> 3.1> 2.8

 

WHIP: 1.65> 1.40> 1.22> 1.27> 1.37

 

ERA+: 80> 11> 118> 121> 126

ERA-: 131> 92> 85> 82> 79

 

FIP-: 132> 89> 77> 65> 74

xFIP: 4.39> 4.05> 3.27> 2.83> 2.95

 

[sk7326]

Sox having a huge promotion for next year on the tickets on site is picture of Devers, Bogey, and E-Rod. Funny no Betts or JD.

 

Given Henry's comments about the luxury tax, and clashes with Dombrowski about the future ... I expect both to be gone. I would not be surprised if Dombrowski did not actually want to be on hand when Betts is on the Dodgers next year.

 

The Red Sox will find someone fine - I don't think EVERYONE will be scared away. But ownership has shown little appetite for standing behind their hires when things aren't amazing.

Edited September 28, 2019 by sk7326

[Elktonnick]

Given Henry's comments about the luxury tax, and clashes with Dombrowski about the future ... I expect both to be gone. I would not be surprised if Dombrowski did not actually want to be on hand when Betts is on the Dodgers next year.

 

Latest rumor is that Sox are looking at Dan Duquette coming back. JH said he wants some one who has had experience running a big league club and some one outside the organization. Could the Duke be the one?

[moonslav59]

Latest rumor is that Sox are looking at Dan Duquette coming back. JH said he wants some one who has had experience running a big league club and some one outside the organization. Could the Duke be the one?

 

I always liked Dan D, but I'm sure he's the guy at this point in time.

[moonslav59]

Given Henry's comments about the luxury tax, and clashes with Dombrowski about the future ... I expect both to be gone. I would not be surprised if Dombrowski did not actually want to be on hand when Betts is on the Dodgers next year.

 

The Red Sox will find someone fine - I don't think EVERYONE will be scared away. But ownership has shown little appetite for standing behind their hires when things aren't amazing.

 

I doubt anyone is "scared" of being the next Sox GM.

 

Many would gladly swap their current position to be the Sox GM.

[sk7326]

I doubt anyone is "scared" of being the next Sox GM.

 

Many would gladly swap their current position to be the Sox GM.

 

I don't think anyone will be scared per se - there are only 30 of these gigs. But ownership cannot credibly assure a GM he will get 4 or 5 years with full confidence.

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone will be scared per se - there are only 30 of these gigs. But ownership cannot credibly assure a GM he will get 4 or 5 years with full confidence.

 

No team assures 4-5 years.

 

I do think there may be a little apprehension after watching a guy win 3 straight divisions and WS ring and get canned over one season, but I think most GM candidates can see there's more to it than that, and they would love to work under Henry and know they will have a budget larger than just about everyone after 2020.

[harmony]

No team assures 4-5 years.

 

I do think there may be a little apprehension after watching a guy win 3 straight divisions and WS ring and get canned over one season, but I think most GM candidates can see there's more to it than that, and they would love to work under Henry and know they will have a budget larger than just about everyone after 2020.

From ESPN's Buster Olney:

Two World Series titles in six years, and two executives -- with two very different personalities, operating very differently -- both dismissed. These decisions loosely frame the industry perception of the Red Sox as a chaotic company, a miserable place to work. Boston owner John Henry needs to understand this, because it is why some of the people he'd probably love to consider as possible replacements for Dombrowski privately dismiss the idea out of hand.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27671442/olney-why-want-boston-gm

[moonslav59]

From ESPN's Buster Olney:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27671442/olney-why-want-boston-gm

 

I don't believe any of this Buster's rant.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't believe any of this Buster's rant.

 

Buster Baloney, as our old friend Softlaw called him.

[harmony]

I don't believe any of this Buster's rant.

From The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal under the headline "The many reasons the Red Sox’ head of baseball operations job is a difficult one to fill":

The Sox, who fired Dave Dombrowski 2 1/2 weeks ago, have the highest payroll in baseball, one of the game’s most identifiable brands and a recent history of success. It’s telling, perhaps even damning, that none of their former executives is rushing back.

https://theathletic.com/1243402/2019/09/26/rosenthal-the-many-reasons-the-red-sox-head-of-baseball-operations-job-is-a-difficult-one-to-fill/

[moonslav59]

From The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal under the headline "The many reasons the Red Sox’ head of baseball operations job is a difficult one to fill":

 

https://theathletic.com/1243402/2019/09/26/rosenthal-the-many-reasons-the-red-sox-head-of-baseball-operations-job-is-a-difficult-one-to-fill/

 

"Rushing back?"

 

What's the evidence or proof?

 

I thought teams reach out to those they want- not guys rush to an opening waiving their hands and yelling, "Can I have the job?"

 

Who knows, if we even want any of these guys?

 

I refuse to believe anyone who is not under contract would not be interested in working under the best owner in MLB.

 

[notin]

"Rushing back?"

 

What's the evidence or proof?

 

I thought teams reach out to those they want- not guys rush to an opening waiving their hands and yelling, "Can I have the job?"

 

Who knows, if we even want any of these guys?

 

I refuse to believe anyone who is not under contract would not be interested in working under the best owner in MLB.

 

 

Not to mentin, all this talk of some sort of bad culture.

 

1. But how much of that was Dombrowski? He was fairly high up there and certainly influenced the culture.

 

2. Am I supposed to believe that in the front office of all the other teams, it's a day at the beach?

[moonslav59]

Nobody interested in the job looks at the Cherrington departure as a reason for not thinking Boston is a good fit, so this whole 2 GMs in 6 years rant is bogus.

 

Nobody interested in the job and knowing the Sox are looking to rebuild sees the DD departure as something to worry about anymore than they would entering any other GM position.

 

The Sox job is one of the most coveted jobs in MLB, if not all of organized sports.

 

Henry is one of the most respected owners in all of sports. There's a very nice core of players to work with. Sure, there are financial issues, health issues and a tough 2020 season coming up, but if you are a good GM, you'd love to be taking over this team. If the reset is a major priority for 2020, there is no pressure to win it all in 2020 and probably 2021 as well.

 

We'll be able to pick who we want, and the choices will be from the best of the best that are available.

 

Some may think Theo or other ex-Sox execs are the best, but maybe that's not who we want.

[Bellhorn04]

Olney and Rosenthal are fairly high up the food chain as reporters, but they know that it never hurts to play up the dirt a little.

[harmony]

"Rushing back?"

 

What's the evidence or proof?

 

I thought teams reach out to those they want- not guys rush to an opening waiving their hands and yelling, "Can I have the job?"

 

Who knows, if we even want any of these guys?

 

I refuse to believe anyone who is not under contract would not be interested in working under the best owner in MLB.

Ken Rosenthal likely has sources that we don't.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Ken Rosenthal likely has sources that we don't.

 

Or not.

 

Sources that may just be speculating.

[harmony]

Sources that may just be speculating.

As posters on this forum are.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

As posters on this forum are.

 

Or not.

 

Yes, I'm speculating, but do you really think Ben's departure is making anyone hesitate to accept an invite to be interviewed for the Sox GM job?

 

Do you really think DD's does?

 

Do you really think anyone wants to avoid working for Henry and having a chance at glory?

 

So far, all 3 GMs who worked for Henry have a ring and have the glory.

 

Plus, the whole idea that execs go to the teams to ask for a job is probably a very rare happening. Teams seek out who they want, and I'd like to see one shred of evidence that someone the Sox asked about being interested said no.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2019 at 7:07pm CDT

 

The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

 

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019. Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball. There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150...

[harmony]

Yes, I'm speculating, but do you really think Ben's departure is making anyone hesitate to accept an invite to be interviewed for the Sox GM job?

 

Do you really think DD's does?

 

Do you really think anyone wants to avoid working for Henry and having a chance at glory?

 

So far, all 3 GMs who worked for Henry have a ring and have the glory.

 

Plus, the whole idea that execs go to the teams to ask for a job is probably a very rare happening. Teams seek out who they want, and I'd like to see one shred of evidence that someone the Sox asked about being interested said no.

A sports franchise probably is not as attractive to outsiders as the team is to its hardcore fans.

[moonslav59]

A sports franchise probably is not as attractive to outsiders as the team is to its hardcore fans.

 

This isn't homerism.

 

Why not answer my 3 questions?

 

Plus, how are most GMs hired? By the team seeking who it wants or candidates going to the teams with openings?

 

This whole story reeks of a untruths.

 

I'd have said the same about the Yanks, Patriots and other winning teams I hate. People want to work for winners.

 

Look, I'm not saying every soul in the world would want the Sox GM job, but there's no way what happened to Ben & DD is keeping anyone from being interested in the job.

Edited September 29, 2019 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Why not answer my 3 questions?

 

1. Yes, I'm speculating, but do you really think Ben's departure is making anyone hesitate to accept an invite to be interviewed for the Sox GM job?

 

2. Do you really think DD's does?

 

3. Do you really think anyone wants to avoid working for Henry and having a chance at glory?

 

Look, I'm not saying every soul in the world would want the Sox GM job, but there's no way what happened to Ben & DD is keeping anyone from being interested in the job.

We're apparently in agreement on the answers to the three questions.

[notin]

This isn't homerism.

 

Why not answer my 3 questions?

 

Plus, how are most GMs hired? By the team seeking who it wants or candidates going to the teams with openings?

 

This whole story reeks of a untruths.

 

I'd have said the same about the Yanks, Patriots and other winning teams I hate. People want to work for winners.

 

Look, I'm not saying every soul in the world would want the Sox GM job, but there's no way what happened to Ben & DD is keeping anyone from being interested in the job.

 

Not to mention, a GM for any major sport franchise is in a high pressure position. It's not like fans of the Orioles are out there thinking "Hey, every game has a loser. And in most games, it's us. That's who we are."

[a700hitter]

This isn't homerism.

 

Why not answer my 3 questions?

 

Plus, how are most GMs hired? By the team seeking who it wants or candidates going to the teams with openings?

 

This whole story reeks of a untruths.

 

I'd have said the same about the Yanks, Patriots and other winning teams I hate. People want to work for winners.

 

Look, I'm not saying every soul in the world would want the Sox GM job, but there's no way what happened to Ben & DD is keeping anyone from being interested in the job.

Have you posted a list of Red Sox players who remain under contract or team control in 2020 and their first FA years?

[notin]

MLBTR reports...

 

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2019 at 7:07pm CDT

 

The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

 

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019. Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball. There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150...

 

Extending Devers this year does seem like it would counter any plans to reset, which is good news...