The Starting Rotation Performance Thread

[vegasbob]

And unfortunately, it has so far worked very well. The Dodgers worked the hell out of the entire pitching staff. Their ability to foul off pitches was amazing.

 

What is possibly more amazing, and directly related to the high pitch counts is the lack of an "out" pitch after getting 2 strikes and/or 2 outs in the inning. Aside from Sale's downbreaking slider , when it is on, I don't think any starter has a killer pitch to go to. And please stop with the 0-2 high FB that is a foot or more too high. The batter expects it , so throw a low strike on the outer corner to induce a weak bouncer.

[Bellhorn04]

And please stop with the 0-2 high FB that is a foot or more too high. The batter expects it , so throw a low strike on the outer corner to induce a weak bouncer.

 

The elevated FB on an 0-2 or 1-2 can be a great pitch, as long as it's not too high, as you say. It's a low-risk pitch because even if the batter makes contact he's likely to fly out or pop it up. Plus you don't have to worry about it bouncing past the catcher.

 

But you can never be too predictable one way or the other, right?

[moonslav59]

The elevated FB on an 0-2 or 1-2 can be a great pitch, as long as it's not too high, as you say. It's a low-risk pitch because even if the batter makes contact he's likely to fly out or pop it up. Plus you don't have to worry about it bouncing past the catcher.

 

But you can never be too predictable one way or the other, right?

 

Exactly, gotta mix it up and keep 'em guessing. If you never throw it high on those counts, then they won't be expecting it, anyways.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is a possible eye into the mentality of the sox starters. I know it would have bothered me as a starter back in my day. Cora starts the year off by pretending April is spring training. Instead of these guys getting their work in and working up to their pitch counts, they're getting shelled and are rushing their progress. This leads to some mechanical issues and maybe to some injury. For a 5 week stretch after the rough start, the sox starters were doing well. Their dropoff seemed to coincide with the implosion of their pen. My wonder is if the sox pitchers knew their pen held water like a sieve and tried to be too perfect. You can see this with staffs on teams with no offense as well. They know that 1 run could be all they're gonna get that day, so the approach changes.

[jung]

Here is a possible eye into the mentality of the sox starters. I know it would have bothered me as a starter back in my day. Cora starts the year off by pretending April is spring training. Instead of these guys getting their work in and working up to their pitch counts, they're getting shelled and are rushing their progress. This leads to some mechanical issues and maybe to some injury. For a 5 week stretch after the rough start, the sox starters were doing well. Their dropoff seemed to coincide with the implosion of their pen. My wonder is if the sox pitchers knew their pen held water like a sieve and tried to be too perfect. You can see this with staffs on teams with no offense as well. They know that 1 run could be all they're gonna get that day, so the approach changes.

 

I think you are probably reading too much into the ST regimen such as it was. Granted it was a mistake to approach ST as they did. But there are deeper problems with this Rotation than ST. They challenge NOBODY and as a Rotation at their command is nowhere.They don't even try to get swing and miss in the strike zone except for Eovaldi now relegated to the pen:

- Porcello is now a rag arm nibbler having tried to turn himself into a power arm which lasted all of about 1.5 years

- Price challenges nobody. The best thing I can say for him is that he will occasionally throw inside

- Cashner is a card carrying joke

- Sale needs clearly to abandon trying to throw 95-96. He can't do it without losing command of his FB and oh by the way every other pitch in his arsenal. He either will or won't adapt. Its up to him.

- Erod has the best Change of the rotation regulars but he is still a two pitcher, now FB and change instead of FB and Slider. He might get away with it. MLB pitching is so piss poor these days it does not take much to distinguish oneself from the bums filling out MLB unis these days

- Nate does challenge and can throw swing and miss in the strike zone, though his history when he pitches to contact is to induce some hard contact along the way. It remains to be seen where he fits. But now that we are paying him $17m per,, he's ours at that price.

 

Frankly, the rotation which was supposed to be the strength of the Red Sox team is pretty much a train wreck. This team was built around the Rotation being the strength of the team and it is far from that.

[moonslav59]

I think you are probably reading too much into the ST regimen such as it was. Granted it was a mistake to approach ST as they did. But there are deeper problems with this Rotation than ST. They challenge NOBODY and as a Rotation at their command is nowhere.They don't even try to get swing and miss in the strike zone except for Eovaldi now relegated to the pen:

- Porcello is now a rag arm nibbler having tried to turn himself into a power arm which lasted all of about 1.5 years

- Price challenges nobody. The best thing I can say for him is that he will occasionally throw inside

- Cashner is a card carrying joke

- Sale needs clearly to abandon trying to throw 95-96. He can't do it without losing command of his FB and oh by the way every other pitch in his arsenal. He either will or won't adapt. Its up to him.

- Erod has the best Change of the rotation regulars but he is still a two pitcher, now FB and change instead of FB and Slider. He might get away with it. MLB pitching is so piss poor these days it does not take much to distinguish oneself from the bums filling out MLB unis these days

- Nate does challenge and can throw swing and miss in the strike zone, though his history when he pitches to contact is to induce some hard contact along the way. It remains to be seen where he fits. But now that we are paying him $17m per,, he's ours at that price.

 

Frankly, the rotation which was supposed to be the strength of the Red Sox team is pretty much a train wreck. This team was built around the Rotation being the strength of the team and it is far from that.

 

Things can change.

 

Hopefully, Price will begin to go longer in games. He has been very good this year. Sale has been a top 3 MLB pitcher for 5+ years; he can regain form. Porcello has had bad stretches before and bounced back. It could happen, but I'm not too optimistic with him. ERod has always had nasty stuff. He's a winner. We hardly ever lose when he pitches.

 

No doubt, they have sucked this year, for the most part, but all hope is not lost.

[Bellhorn04]

Here is a possible eye into the mentality of the sox starters. I know it would have bothered me as a starter back in my day. Cora starts the year off by pretending April is spring training.

 

The whole reason the team did this was because they wanted to be 'cautious' given the way these guys were worked in the postseason - not just the innings but the high-stress relief innings they pitched on top of the starts.

 

Let's take Porcello.

 

Is the 'Occam's razor' explanation that this 'late start' screwed his season?

 

Or is the 'Occam's razor' explanation that the team was right to be concerned, and that last postseason really did do a number on Rick?

[Elktonnick]

Here is a possible eye into the mentality of the sox starters. I know it would have bothered me as a starter back in my day. Cora starts the year off by pretending April is spring training. Instead of these guys getting their work in and working up to their pitch counts, they're getting shelled and are rushing their progress. This leads to some mechanical issues and maybe to some injury. For a 5 week stretch after the rough start, the sox starters were doing well. Their dropoff seemed to coincide with the implosion of their pen. My wonder is if the sox pitchers knew their pen held water like a sieve and tried to be too perfect. You can see this with staffs on teams with no offense as well. They know that 1 run could be all they're gonna get that day, so the approach changes.

 

I agree

[Bellhorn04]

Keith Foulke's arm was destroyed in the 2004 postseason in pursuit of a flag.

 

Isn't it possible that the same thing happened to Porcello?

[jacksonianmarch]

Unlikely, IMO. The problem is that you don’t have a control group to point to. But pitchers experience late postseason runs all the time and most come back unscathed due to their preparation. Cora messes with the one thing that keeps these guys on target and that’s their routine. I was a pitcher, but when I got to some higher levels in baseball (college World Series level) the starters were weird as hell. They craved the schedule. Heck, they partied based on schedule. The preparation made them great and they didn’t stray. Cora messes with that and I’m sure he will agree behind closed doors that he regrets it more than anything.

[Bellhorn04]

Unlikely, IMO. The problem is that you don’t have a control group to point to. But pitchers experience late postseason runs all the time and most come back unscathed due to their preparation. Cora messes with the one thing that keeps these guys on target and that’s their routine. I was a pitcher, but when I got to some higher levels in baseball (college World Series level) the starters were weird as hell. They craved the schedule. Heck, they partied based on schedule. The preparation made them great and they didn’t stray. Cora messes with that and I’m sure he will agree behind closed doors that he regrets it more than anything.

 

It seems pretty unlikely to me that Rick's 5.61 ERA can be fully attributed to his spring schedule, which was not really scaled back that dramatically, considering he only pitched 4 innings less in ST games than the previous year. His 12 spring innings were more than a bunch of other major league starters who are doing fine.

 

I think it's actually a little ridiculous at this point to blame it all on the spring schedule. It's almost the end of July.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m not saying it is the full culprit, but it didn’t help. Rick can point to one major flaw right now. He’s a big breaking ball pitcher. He sets the top of the zone and then drops a breaking ball and is usually very effective. Rick hasn’t had the feel for his breaking ball most of the season.

[a700hitter]

Keith Foulke's arm was destroyed in the 2004 postseason in pursuit of a flag.

 

Isn't it possible that the same thing happened to Porcello?

Porcello is a 4.25 ERA pitcher over his career. He has had seasons like this before, and it looks like it is happening again. In his good years, he has gotten a lot of run support. Look at his stats from last year. He pitched to an over 5 ERA over the final 2 months of the season. I don’t think his arm is ruined. He is just Porcello being Porcello.

[Maxbialystock]

Unlikely, IMO. The problem is that you don’t have a control group to point to. But pitchers experience late postseason runs all the time and most come back unscathed due to their preparation. Cora messes with the one thing that keeps these guys on target and that’s their routine. I was a pitcher, but when I got to some higher levels in baseball (college World Series level) the starters were weird as hell. They craved the schedule. Heck, they partied based on schedule. The preparation made them great and they didn’t stray. Cora messes with that and I’m sure he will agree behind closed doors that he regrets it more than anything.

 

Are you talking about spring training? If so, Porcello pitched 12 innings vs. 16 in 2018, hardly a huge difference. This year ERod pitched 15 innings in ST vs. 0 last year, and has struggled until lately. Price only pitched 6 this year vs. 15 last year, and his ERA is lower. However, I do not disagree he is scary out there because he relies almost exclusively on the changeup and fast ball (and cut fast ball). Sale, too, only pitched 6 innings, but this was done to avoid what happened the past two seasons when he was terrific April-June/July and so-so July/August-Sep/Oct. Plus he's lost some speed on his favorite pitch, that blazing fastball.

[jad]

The elevated FB on an 0-2 or 1-2 can be a great pitch, as long as it's not too high, as you say. It's a low-risk pitch because even if the batter makes contact he's likely to fly out or pop it up. Plus you don't have to worry about it bouncing past the catcher.

 

But you can never be too predictable one way or the other, right?

 

Or, much worse!, as long as it's not too low.

[TylerD]

Porcello is a 4.25 ERA pitcher over his career. He has had seasons like this before, and it looks like it is happening again. In his good years, he has gotten a lot of run support. Look at his stats from last year. He pitched to an over 5 ERA over the final 2 months of the season. I don’t think his arm is ruined. He is just Porcello being Porcello.

 

Exactly this.... Porcello started the season last year to the point we thought he was going to have a similar season to his CY Young, but the last couple months were ugly from his.... That is just what you have to expect with Porcello unfortunately.... He is the definition of inconsistent. He can give you a rock star type game like he did against Texas and Minnesota..... But then he can give you games like he has the last 5 starts.... Utter s***. But that is just to be expected with a 4th and 5th man in a rotation. Not too often your 4th and 5th starter are going to give you 7 innings of 3 runs or less otherwise they wouldn't be your 4th or 5th starter... Good chance they are your ace or 2nd guy. I am still in for signing Porcello if the price is right. As long as he keeps giving us 6 innings of baseball this offense has a chance to win. However with this recent stretch (outside of the Jays game) Porcello hasn't given us 6 innings.Yankees, Tigers and Orioles all were brutal starts with the Jays being an average at best start.

[S5Dewey]

I’m not saying it is the full culprit, but it didn’t help. Rick can point to one major flaw right now. He’s a big breaking ball pitcher. He sets the top of the zone and then drops a breaking ball and is usually very effective. Rick hasn’t had the feel for his breaking ball most of the season.

 

I'm blaming Porcillo's problems on two things, both of them related to the new baseballs.

 

He's always given up a lot of HR's. It's just that last year's fly balls are becoming this year's home runs.

and, perhaps more importantly...

He's always been a breaking ball pitcher. With the "new and improved" baseballs being stitched tighter he has less stitch surface to grasp with his fingers. He can impart less spin on the ball and therefore his breaking pitches... his bread and butter pitches... are less effective.

[Elktonnick]

I'm blaming Porcillo's problems on two things, both of them related to the new baseballs.

 

He's always given up a lot of HR's. It's just that last year's fly balls are becoming this year's home runs.

and, perhaps more importantly...

He's always been a breaking ball pitcher. With the "new and improved" baseballs being stitched tighter he has less stitch surface to grasp with his fingers. He can impart less spin on the ball and therefore his breaking pitches... his bread and butter pitches... are less effective.

 

I agree that is a major factor.

[S5Dewey]

I agree that is a major factor.

 

I know a HS coach who has two boxes of 'special' baseballs, one box with very high threads and the other with very tight threads. He tries to get the balls with the tight threads into the game when his team is behind and the one with the high threads in when his team is ahead.

 

True story.

[TylerD]

I'm blaming Porcillo's problems on two things, both of them related to the new baseballs.

 

He's always given up a lot of HR's. It's just that last year's fly balls are becoming this year's home runs.

and, perhaps more importantly...

He's always been a breaking ball pitcher. With the "new and improved" baseballs being stitched tighter he has less stitch surface to grasp with his fingers. He can impart less spin on the ball and therefore his breaking pitches... his bread and butter pitches... are less effective.

 

Which I think is ******** that they changed the baseball even if it's a minor change I don't care. Simple.... DON'T CHANGE STUFF. Why don't we start using the CFL footballs in the NFL and see if QB's can throw the ball as far. Maybe Porcello needs the off season to work on a few things with these new balls I dunno. But this recent stretch of his hopefully won't continue. Gives us almost zero chance when he can't even go 6 innings and gives up 5 plus a game.

[notin]

I know a HS coach who has two boxes of 'special' baseballs, one box with very high threads and the other with very tight threads. He tries to get the balls with the tight threads into the game when his team is behind and the one with the high threads in when his team is ahead.

 

True story.

 

That’s actually a sad level of competitiveness from a high school coach...

[jung]

I'm blaming Porcillo's problems on two things, both of them related to the new baseballs.

 

He's always given up a lot of HR's. It's just that last year's fly balls are becoming this year's home runs.

and, perhaps more importantly...

He's always been a breaking ball pitcher. With the "new and improved" baseballs being stitched tighter he has less stitch surface to grasp with his fingers. He can impart less spin on the ball and therefore his breaking pitches... his bread and butter pitches... are less effective.

 

I actually think the bigger issue for Rick is that he cannot come up with the high heat FB that became his weapon of choice during his Cy Young season. That was the big change for Rick. He went from a sinker, slider. ho-hum FB pitcher to a guy that could elevate above the letters to where hitters could not reach his FB. The Sinker basically went away and turned into a standard looking two seam at that point and his Slider remained his Slider. Now his Sinker is still just a plain jane two seas, his Sinker does not do much on occasion (to your point about the baseball itself possibly) and just was never a power pitcher before. Hence, IMO he burned out his arm trying to be one as he just does not have the mechanics to really be a power pitcher. If he had them before the Cy year, he would have deployed that particular FB before his Cy year.

 

Yet, he does not have the command of what remains of his secondary pitches to make a go of it on what he has. I just don't think he will ever be a top line starting pitcher again and is destined to work out his career producing sludge numbers till he finally folds his tent.

Edited July 22, 2019 by jung

[notin]

I'm blaming Porcillo's problems on two things, both of them related to the new baseballs.

 

He's always given up a lot of HR's. It's just that last year's fly balls are becoming this year's home runs.

and, perhaps more importantly...

He's always been a breaking ball pitcher. With the "new and improved" baseballs being stitched tighter he has less stitch surface to grasp with his fingers. He can impart less spin on the ball and therefore his breaking pitches... his bread and butter pitches... are less effective.

 

I don’t think “less spin” is the issue. If the thread height is lower, the seams disrupt the air flow around the ball as it travels toward the plate to a lesser degree. The reduced disruption of the air flow means a reduced localized pressure drop that enables a breaking pitch or a. 2-seamer (RP’s best pitch) to break. I’m not saying his revolutions/second is not different, but I am saying that lesser thread height makes that matter less. Even if he was achieving his former spin rate, this ball would still break les than last year’s..,

[a700hitter]

I actually think the bigger issue for Rick is that he cannot come up with the high heat FB that became his weapon of choice during his Cy Young season. That was the big change for Rick. He went from a sinker, slider. ho-hum FB pitcher to a guy that could elevate above the letters to where hitters could not reach his FB. The Sinker basically went away and turned into a standard looking two seam at that point and his Slider remained his Slider. Now his Sinker is still just a plain jane two seas, his Sinker does not do much on occasion (to your point about the baseball itself possibly) and just was never a power pitcher before. Hence, IMO he burned out his arm trying to be one as he just does not have the mechanics to really be a power pitcher. If he had them before the Cy year, he would have deployed that particular FB before his Cy year.

 

Yet, he does not have the command of what remains of his secondary pitches to make a go of it on what he has. I just don't think he will ever be a top line starting pitcher again and is destined to work out his career producing sludge numbers till he finally folds his tent.

Prior to this season, Porcello has been plagued by the HR ball — hence the term “Porcello’s “. He went to the high fastball, because the sinker was playing right into the hands of the new launch angle philosophy. If you want to get outs, you need to pitch up in the zone and go above the uppercut swings. The problem is that Porcello doesn’t have the kind of heat to live upstairs. He needs to be perfect to succeed upstairs. There is nothing wrong with his arm. He needs to make some adjustments to the way he is attacking hitters and needs to have better command.

[S5Dewey]

That’s actually a sad level of competitiveness from a high school coach...

 

I didn't say I condone it. I just said it's something I'm aware of.

[moonslav59]

Prior to this season, Porcello has been plagued by the HR ball — hence the term “Porcello’s “. He went to the high fastball, because the sinker was playing right into the hands of the new launch angle philosophy. If you want to get outs, you need to pitch up in the zone and go above the uppercut swings. The problem is that Porcello doesn’t have the kind of heat to live upstairs. He needs to be perfect to succeed upstairs. There is nothing wrong with his arm. He needs to make some adjustments to the way he is attacking hitters and needs to have better command.

 

Maybe Leon can help him with his approach.

 

ERA in 2019 with...

 

Leon 4.12

Vaz 7.96

Swi 13.50

 

Career:

4.13 w Leon

4.88 w Vaz

4.93 w Swi

 

He may also just need some time off to regroup.

[S5Dewey]

I don’t think “less spin” is the issue. If the thread height is lower, the seams disrupt the air flow around the ball as it travels toward the plate to a lesser degree. The reduced disruption of the air flow means a reduced localized pressure drop that enables a breaking pitch or a. 2-seamer (RP’s best pitch) to break. I’m not saying his revolutions/second is not different, but I am saying that lesser thread height makes that matter less. Even if he was achieving his former spin rate, this ball would still break les than last year’s..,

 

You're implying that the height of the seams (and therefore the grip the pitcher gets on the ball) is insignificant, then? I'm not sure I'm buying that.

I'm aware that the reason the college ball went to lower seams is to increase the flight of the ball while not endangering the safety of the pitcher. The ball travels at the same speed when it leaves the bat regardless of which ball is used but the distance it travels is increased by less wind resistance on the ball.

In the case of the pitcher t's pretty safe to assume that the ball is going to be traveling at about the same speed for the first 60'6" - which is the distance the pitcher is throwing the ball. If the ball is traveling at the same speed but has more revs the break is going to be greater.

 

It looks like we both have come to the same conclusion but got there different ways.

[notin]

You're implying that the height of the seams (and therefore the grip the pitcher gets on the ball) is insignificant, then? I'm not sure I'm buying that.

I'm aware that the reason the college ball went to lower seams is to increase the flight of the ball while not endangering the safety of the pitcher. The ball travels at the same speed when it leaves the bat regardless of which ball is used but the distance it travels is increased by less wind resistance on the ball.

In the case of the pitcher t's pretty safe to assume that the ball is going to be traveling at about the same speed for the first 60'6" - which is the distance the pitcher is throwing the ball. If the ball is traveling at the same speed but has more revs the break is going to be greater.

 

It looks like we both have come to the same conclusion but got there different ways.

 

I’m saying the height of the seams has a better affect on the air flow around the ball. The disruption of the air flow is what makes the ball break.

 

If you drive down the highway at 70 mph and stick your hand out the window so that it’s flat, you can feel some force from the air as you pass through. Rotate your hand so the air is striking your palm and you feel more force from the air. This difference in force is significant with your hand, but on a much lighter baseball, it can have greater results.

 

There is a reason you can make a baseball break when you throw it but you can’t do the same thing with a cue ball. And it doesn’t matter how much you spin it. Heck, knuckleballs break best with no spin.

 

Now some (all?) pitchers might not be getting the same grip. But even if they were, the reduced seam height would still have an effect...

[S5Dewey]

I’m saying the height of the seams has a better affect on the air flow around the ball. The disruption of the air flow is what makes the ball break.

 

Now some (all?) pitchers might not be getting the same grip. But even if they were, the reduced seam height would still have an effect...

I'm not sure what you mean by "better". Do you mean the height of the seams would have less affect on the ball, or more?

[notin]

I'm not sure what you mean by "better". Do you mean the height of the seams would have less affect on the ball, or more?

 

More height on the seams = more affect of air flow = more break