A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I have no problem with someone else doing it either . (As long as I am not paying them ) But I don't value their opinions more than I value my own .

 

I don't think the play ratings these guys do are all that mysterious or complicated. They just try to assess whether some guys are making plays other guys are not making. I think guys who are making more plays should get credit for it. And guys like Jeter who don't make many errors but have statue-like range should be penalized for it.

[OH FOY]

We've been doing a lot of Brain Farts this season, the little things that win or lose a game. Don't understand the year to year difference. As if they are entitled to win. And other teams will let them.

[S5Dewey]

How do you know JBJ is better than most CF'ers on D. then?

 

I don't. But my argument for the inaccuracy of dWAR is that JBJ has more defensive value than a replacement player every day. Or even that JBJ has more value to a team than that 1/2 run per season.

 

There are so many things about dWAR that are bogus. For example, when we talk about all three of our outfielders the discussion goes to 1) it's possible that Beni's dWAR is undervalued because he plays LF in Fenway, 2) JBJ's dWAR is undervalued because he plays next to Betts in RF which prevents him from having to get to balls hit to RC, and 3) Betts' dWAR is overvalued in comparison to other RF'ers because there's more ground to cover in RF of Fenway than (nearly?) any other park.

 

And that's just the Red Sox. For example, is Judge's dWAR negatively affected by his playing RF in the bandbox now called Yankee Stadium? Or is the park effect exclusive to Fenway?

 

With all the flaws and questions about dWAR I find it hard to believe that anyone would try to defend it. It's the triumph of stats over logic.

[S5Dewey]

FWIW, although I didn't see the plays myself, I read some comments in more than one of the game threads early in the season about JBJ's defense not being up to par.

 

So... since his stats weren't up to par he had less value than a replacement player? How can you guys watch him play and justify that?????

[Bellhorn04]

I don't. But my argument for the inaccuracy of dWAR is that JBJ has more defensive value than a replacement player every day. Or even that JBJ has more value to a team than that 1/2 run per season.

 

There are so many things about dWAR that are bogus. For example, when we talk about all three of our outfielders the discussion goes to 1) it's possible that Beni's dWAR is undervalued because he plays LF in Fenway, 2) JBJ's dWAR is undervalued because he plays next to Betts in RF which prevents him from having to get to balls hit to RC, and 3) Betts' dWAR is overvalued in comparison to other RF'ers because there's more ground to cover in RF of Fenway than (nearly?) any other park.

 

And that's just the Red Sox. For example, is Judge's dWAR negatively affected by his playing RF in the bandbox now called Yankee Stadium? Or is the park effect exclusive to Fenway?

 

With all the flaws and questions about dWAR I find it hard to believe that anyone would try to defend it. It's the triumph of stats over logic.

 

What you're pointing out is that there may be some quirks in defensive ratings for outfielders who play in parks with odd dimensions that need to be addressed.

 

JBJ's overall dWAR ratings for his career are hugely positive. WAR has benefitted him, not hurt him.

[Bellhorn04]

So... since his stats weren't up to par he had less value than a replacement player? How can you guys watch him play and justify that?????

 

It's not at all uncommon for major league players to have games or stretches of games where they played below replacement level.

[notin]

I don't. But my argument for the inaccuracy of dWAR is that JBJ has more defensive value than a replacement player every day. Or even that JBJ has more value to a team than that 1/2 run per season.

 

There are so many things about dWAR that are bogus. For example, when we talk about all three of our outfielders the discussion goes to 1) it's possible that Beni's dWAR is undervalued because he plays LF in Fenway, 2) JBJ's dWAR is undervalued because he plays next to Betts in RF which prevents him from having to get to balls hit to RC, and 3) Betts' dWAR is overvalued in comparison to other RF'ers because there's more ground to cover in RF of Fenway than (nearly?) any other park.

 

And that's just the Red Sox. For example, is Judge's dWAR negatively affected by his playing RF in the bandbox now called Yankee Stadium? Or is the park effect exclusive to Fenway?

 

With all the flaws and questions about dWAR I find it hard to believe that anyone would try to defend it. It's the triumph of stats over logic.

 

I think you’re looking at dWAR as a measure of ability when it’s not but rather it’s a measure of accomplishments.

 

And playing next to Betts has certainly mitigated the accomplishments for Bradley. His dWAR is low because it’s saying the Sox could certainly get by with a lesser defensive CF thanks in large part to the way Betts plays RF. What it’s NOT saying is Bradley isn’t a good defensive player. But his OOZ (out of zone plays) is among the lowest in MLB because Betts covers a lot of that territory and Austin Meadows, for example, does not...

[OH FOY]

I see Toronto is helping us out. They optioned Rowdy Tellez. Thank you. He is hitting .419 with 5 HRS and 11 RBI's against us this season. .500 at Fenway, with 2 HRS.

[Bellhorn04]

I see Toronto is helping us out. They optioned Rowdy Tellez. Thank you. He is hitting .419 with 5 HRS and 11 RBI's against us this season. .500 at Fenway, with 2 HRS.

 

Good catch!

[notin]

I see Toronto is helping us out. They optioned Rowdy Tellez. Thank you. He is hitting .419 with 5 HRS and 11 RBI's against us this season. .500 at Fenway, with 2 HRS.

 

Eh.

 

I think half the hitters in the Blue Jays lineup have numbers like that against Boston this year...

[Kimmi]

He makes the plays on the balls he gets to. But he doesn't to as many as most other guys. Many of the spectacular plays we see would be a lot more routine for better fielders (hmm, sound like anyone we mocked for years and years).

 

Well said.

 

I don't think Bogaerts has looked that bad out there either, but if a defender is not making a lot of flubs and is not particularly slow, we don't usually notice the plays that he is not getting to.

[Kimmi]

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 58.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 46 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

Red Sox fans could be in for an exciting finish.

 

Red Sox fans are ready for an exciting finish.

 

The Sox are going to shock the world.

 

Harmony, be prepared to be shocked!

[Kimmi]

WAR , especially dWAR , is heavily influenced by personal opinion. We don't have to agree with , or accept , someone else's opinion.

 

There is a lot more that goes into it than just someone else's opinion.

 

No, you don't have agree or accept what the metrics say. It's your decision, and you are a very knowledgeable baseball fan capable of making your own decisions. But, I think you are fooling yourself if you believe your biased eyes over the metrics. This is not meant to be a knock on you or anyone else, and I mean that sincerely.

 

I will provide the caveat that defensive metrics need a larger sample size than 1/2 season, but DRS and range factors have repeatedly been unkind to Xander.

[Kimmi]

It's not one guy. It's trained people who are rotated and calibrated.

 

The same guys who rate JBJ rate the other CF'ers.

 

It's not a perfect system, but I see far too few games by other teams to know if their CF'er is better than ours or not.

 

Also, each play is rated by several different scouts, not just by one person. It's a consensus opinion of trained, unbiased (as unbiased as a human can be) scouts.

 

Don't the eye test people believe in scouts? It is scouts who are supplying the data, often times former players or coaches.

 

Don't disregard the scouts' opinions just because their opinions are then put into analytic form.

 

Besides that, there is much more that goes into it besides opinions.

[Kimmi]

C'mon Denny, we have always had 'official scorers' who decide whether it's a hit or an error. This is not a huge difference.

 

We also have trained umpires who decide whether something is a ball or a strike.

 

I believe everyone takes the stats that in anyway involve balls or strikes at face value.

[Kimmi]

I have no problem with someone else doing it either . (As long as I am not paying them ) But I don't value their opinions more than I value my own .

 

Do you trust the opinions of baseball scouts whose job it is to go around watching different players and write up scouting reports having nothing to do with analytics?

[Kimmi]

If one doesn't believe all of them they're then left in the position of not knowing which ones to believe and which not to believe. So they believe the ones they choose to.

 

In other words, you only believe in stats that agree with the opinions you already have.

 

Stats that disagree with your opinion are no good or useless.

 

It doesn't work that way.

[Kimmi]

A fan's assessment of a player's defensive abilities can be based on several sources, including televised coverage of that player, accompanied by biased commentary from that team's announcers.

 

I don't watch much television but my favorite team's radio announcers offer laudatory off-cuff defensive commentary on a particular play although that player's overall defensive metrics are not flattering.

 

I always thought Pedroia was a really good base runner based on what I saw in games, and the commentary from the announcers that supported my opinion. I was wrong.

[Kimmi]

Our next 7 games are against the Jays and the Orioles. The Sox need to make a statement in those games before heading into the next 14 games, which are against the Yankees and the Rays.

[dgalehouse]

The good news is that with there being so many garbage teams in the A.L. these days , you can always get on a roll by beating up on them . Seven games on tap versus the dregs of the East . Chance to gain some ground . More good news : Toronto has optioned " Rowdy " Roddy Tellez.

[jung]

The good news is that with there being so many garbage teams in the A.L. these days , you can always get on a roll by beating up on them . Seven games on tap versus the dregs of the East . Chance to gain some ground . More good news : Toronto has optioned " Rowdy " Roddy Tellez.

 

Ostensibly to "look" at some of their minor league talent in a ML uni (re: see if somebody takes a trade deadline sniff at some of these guys). If i were a Jays fan I would be looking to cash out my tickets for this BS.

[notin]

Ostensibly to "look" at some of their minor league talent in a ML uni (re: see if somebody takes a trade deadline sniff at some of these guys). If i were a Jays fan I would be looking to cash out my tickets for this BS.

 

They could be unveiling their new Sons of Infield soon. They just need to call up Bo Bichette and somehow get their hands on one of the Cron brothers or Travis Shaw.

 

Or apparently they could also call up Griffin Conine (son of former Marlin Jeff) to play 1b. How many MLB legacies does this organization have?

Edited July 15, 2019 by notin

[oldtimer]

Red Sox fans are ready for an exciting finish.

 

The Sox are going to shock the world.

 

Harmony, be prepared to be shocked!

 

Ever the optimist!

[a700hitter]

[h=2]Red Sox Designate Eduardo Nunez For Assignment[/h]By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 1:15pm CDT

The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve designated infielder Eduardo Nunez for assignment and optioned right-hander Hector Velazquez to Triple-A Pawtucket. In a pair of corresponding moves, right-hander Ryan Weber and first baseman/outfielder Sam Travis were called up from Triple-A.

More to come.

These moves had to happen. Cora is probably in mourning about Nunez.

[dgalehouse]

They could be unveiling their new Sons of Infield soon. They just need to call up Bo Bichette and somehow get their hands on one of the Cron brothers or Travis Shaw.

 

Or apparently they could also call up Griffin Conine (son of former Marlin Jeff) to play 1b. How many MLB legacies does this organization have?

 

The Blue Jays are emulating horse racing . Checking the blood lines , looking for thoroughbreds. Maybe they will hire Bob Baffert as a consultant.

[moonslav59]

These moves had to happen. Cora is probably in mourning about Nunez.

 

The loyalty thing has always been turned to a weakness with Sox GMs and managers.

 

Nunez helped us once, and we kept trying to get him to repeat those days, despite the fact that his body was breaking down all along.

[notin]

The Blue Jays are emulating horse racing . Checking the blood lines , looking for thoroughbreds.

 

Are you suggesting they have a bunch of former Major Leaguers on staff whose sole duty is to be put up for stud?

[dgalehouse]

Are you suggesting they have a bunch of former Major Leaguers on staff whose sole duty is to be put up for stud?

 

That could be part of their long range ( 18 year ) plan .

[moonslav59]

So... since his stats weren't up to par he had less value than a replacement player? How can you guys watch him play and justify that?????

 

What is replacement level defense in CF, this year?

 

It could be great defense, if we have 30 excellent defensive CF'er. (Just a hypothetical- not a statement of fact.)

 

Unless you really know how good every other CF'er is, you can't say JBJ's defense is above "replacement level value."

[moonslav59]

That could be part of their long range ( 18 year ) plan .

 

lmao!