The JD Martinez Performance Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

JD is an elite offensive talent. On a squad looking to keep it's best two way talent, the money from JDM would be better allocated. That being said, offense only players have been devalued in today's game. Because everyone is hitting homers now, a guy who posts .900-/950OPS and offers nothing defensively isn't worth as much as it used to be. With his market dropping, I think JDM stays on

[moonslav59]

JD is an elite offensive talent. On a squad looking to keep it's best two way talent, the money from JDM would be better allocated. That being said, offense only players have been devalued in today's game. Because everyone is hitting homers now, a guy who posts .900-/950OPS and offers nothing defensively isn't worth as much as it used to be. With his market dropping, I think JDM stays on

 

While you are right about .950 not being what it used to be, it's still worth a lot, and he may end up over 1.000 again.

I don't disagree with your point, though.

[Jasonbay44]

JD is an elite offensive talent. On a squad looking to keep it's best two way talent, the money from JDM would be better allocated. That being said, offense only players have been devalued in today's game. Because everyone is hitting homers now, a guy who posts .900-/950OPS and offers nothing defensively isn't worth as much as it used to be. With his market dropping, I think JDM stays on

This is exactly how I feel

[notin]

JD is an elite offensive talent. On a squad looking to keep it's best two way talent, the money from JDM would be better allocated. That being said, offense only players have been devalued in today's game. Because everyone is hitting homers now, a guy who posts .900-/950OPS and offers nothing defensively isn't worth as much as it used to be. With his market dropping, I think JDM stays on

 

Might be a different story with his $4mill drop in pay next season...

[dgalehouse]

Opting out is too much of a risk . I think he stays .

[notin]

Opting out is too much of a risk . I think he stays .

 

I think he stays for 2020 and Boras re-assesses the market to speculate if 2021 makes sense or he can get 3 or 4 years...

[moonslav59]

I'd put the odds at less than 2% he opts out, despite his late season surge.

 

I hope he hits 1.000 again this year.

[Bellhorn04]

I hope JD opts out so we can save all that money and get a draft choice that we can use to draft the next Lars Anderson.

 

You would have to be a complete knucklehead to hope that JF and his wrecking ball of a bat would opt out.

 

As he demonstrates again tonight.

 

He's really putting up great back-to-back seasons for us.

[moonslav59]

Here I was thinking Devers would pass Bogey and win the team's top OPS this year, but JD has snuck into the lead.

 

[moonslav59]

JD's OPS since 2014: .958

By Year:

.912

.879

.908

1.066

1.031

.958

 

2016-2019: .992

 

2017-2019: 1.018

[Nick]

Might be a different story with his $4mill drop in pay next season...

 

His pay drops in 2021, not next season.....he'll opt out after 2021

[oldtimer]

His pay drops in 2021, not next season.....he'll opt out after 2021

 

It's difficult in MLB to guess at performance a full year ahead. I would defer definitive statements until he actually has another great year. Injuries, ageing and the like are part of the game

[Bellhorn04]

His pay drops in 2021, not next season.....he'll opt out after 2021

 

Let's see if we can clarify JD's contract for the benefit of everyone:

 

5 years 110 million

 

2018 23,750,000

2019 23,750,000 Can opt out after this year

2020 23,750,000 Can opt out after this year

2021 19,375,000

2022 19,375,000

 

If he opts out after 2019 he foregoes 3 years and 62.5 million.

If he opts out after 2020 he foregoes 2 years and 38.75 million.

[jacksonianmarch]

I doubt he opts our period. JD caught the back end of the DH money grab. He’s best served finishing this contract

[moonslav59]

I doubt he opts our period. JD caught the back end of the DH money grab. He’s best served finishing this contract

 

I agree, but if he has another .950+ season, next year, there's a better chance than nil.

[jacksonianmarch]

The only way I can see JD opting out is if he can increase his guarantee by adding years. He definitely won’t get that this offseason. Maybe he gets something next offseason?

[notin]

The only way I can see JD opting out is if he can increase his guarantee by adding years. He definitely won’t get that this offseason. Maybe he gets something next offseason?

 

I would expect him to next off-season.

 

It would probably be in the Sox best interest for him to opt out this year. They’re still the most likely team to sign him and they could get him at a lower AAV for more years. Maybe a 4 year $76mill contract? That essentially gets Martinez one extra year for $15mill.

[moonslav59]

I would expect him to next off-season.

 

It would probably be in the Sox best interest for him to opt out this year. They’re still the most likely team to sign him and they could get him at a lower AAV for more years. Maybe a 4 year $76mill contract? That essentially gets Martinez one extra year for $15mill.

 

That adds about $14M for that extra year.

 

Sounds about right for a DH in his 36 year old season, but I'm not sure he'd take it.

 

He may look for a contract that takes him to 38 or more.

[Bellhorn04]

That adds about $14M for that extra year.

 

Sounds about right for a DH in his 36 year old season, but I'm not sure he'd take it.

 

He may look for a contract that takes him to 38 or more.

 

The pencil-necked stat geeks that allegedly carry so much weight in today's front offices weren't crazy about big money for JD last time around. I can't see their opinions changing when he's a few years older.

[notin]

The pencil-necked stat geeks that allegedly carry so much weight in today's front offices weren't crazy about big money for JD last time around. I can't see their opinions changing when he's a few years older.

 

 

... which is why Boras will advise him to not opt out this off-season...

[moonslav59]

The pencil-necked stat geeks that allegedly carry so much weight in today's front offices weren't crazy about big money for JD last time around. I can't see their opinions changing when he's a few years older.

 

If they could restructure the deal to lessen the luxury tax hit, they may try, but if they will reset, soon, they may just bite the bullet now rather than add more for the extra year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, it’s gonna be hard to argue that he should opt out. He’s an absolute defensive liability and that isn’t gonna change which limits his suitors to the AL only. LAA and NYY are set for years at DH. The CWS are not going to be spending. Alvarez makes the point moot for Houston. He’s not getting bigger money from CLE or MIN. Oakland doesn’t spend. Boston is the only place he is gonna get the money and if they rebuild, he’s looking at a big cash loss. His best option is to stay on

[notin]

Yeah, it’s gonna be hard to argue that he should opt out. He’s an absolute defensive liability and that isn’t gonna change which limits his suitors to the AL only. LAA and NYY are set for years at DH. The CWS are not going to be spending. Alvarez makes the point moot for Houston. He’s not getting bigger money from CLE or MIN. Oakland doesn’t spend. Boston is the only place he is gonna get the money and if they rebuild, he’s looking at a big cash loss. His best option is to stay on

 

While Martinez should not opt out, you might be underestimating the spending power of the White Sox, a team that budgeted close to $300mill for Manny Machado and friends...

[Bellhorn04]

While Martinez should not opt out, you might be underestimating the spending power of the White Sox, a team that budgeted close to $300mill for Manny Machado and friends...

 

You wonder in cases like this if there might be some skullduggery behind the scenes, like the White Sox GM mentioning to Boras that they are itching to spend like fools on a DH.

 

When JD Drew opted out of his Dodgers deal and signed with the Sox there were some malicious little rumors that JD knew he was gonna be better off opting out...

[notin]

You wonder in cases like this if there might be some skullduggery behind the scenes, like the White Sox GM mentioning to Boras that they are itching to spend like fools on a DH.

 

When JD Drew opted out of his Dodgers deal and signed with the Sox there were some malicious little rumors that JD knew he was gonna be better off opting out...

 

I am not going to accuse Boras of being part of any sort of illegal tampering without anything more than the internet rumor mill. You’d think his reputation alone would be enough to keep clean.

 

I think JD holds off for one more year, when his pay drops by $4mill. If he did opt out this year, it would be awesome for Boston...

[Bellhorn04]

I am not going to accuse Boras of being part of any sort of illegal tampering without anything more than the internet rumor mill. You’d think his reputation alone would be enough to keep clean.

 

I think JD holds off for one more year, when his pay drops by $4mill. If he did opt out this year, it would be awesome for Boston...

 

I'm not so sure it would be awesome for Boston. They would have $22 million more to play with, but for one year only. I don't see a huge benefit.

[notin]

I'm not so sure it would be awesome for Boston. They would have $22 million more to play with, but for one year only. I don't see a huge benefit.

 

At this point, all headroom is good headroom...

[Bellhorn04]

At this point, all headroom is good headroom...

 

But how's it make the 2020 team better?

[notin]

But how's it make the 2020 team better?

 

Well it might not. But if the team is resetting for 2021 it helps.

 

2020 is a very pivotal season. Do the Sox keep spending, something Dombrowski doesn’t appear to do very well? Or do they step back and regroup for one year?

[Bellhorn04]

Well it might not. But if the team is resetting for 2021 it helps.

 

2020 is a very pivotal season. Do the Sox keep spending, something Dombrowski doesn’t appear to do very well? Or do they step back and regroup for one year?

 

Only JH knows. And he ain't sayin' yet.