Craig Kimbrel...

[notin]

Based on what we got for them, of course. What do you suppose they are worth today?

 

 

Cleveland apparently wanted Logan Allen as part of their return for Trevor Bauer, and he was the only MLB pitcher they received. He had value then, right?

 

There’s a 5 and a half year gap between “then” and today. It’s not a binary choice…

Edited June 24, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Sure. And Mookie Betts was salary-dumped by us, with one year of control and a $27 million salary. And yet he commanded a high return.

 

I don't really see your point.

 

And if the Sox traded Betts a year earlier, would they have gotten more for him or less?

[Bellhorn04]

And if the Sox traded Betts a year earlier, would they have gotten more for him or less?

 

More. But in this case, I would argue that Kimbrel's remaining contract was just about perfect for a closer (2 years plus a team option). And it worked out that way.

 

Personally, I think the fairest way to look at it is what Kimbrel would have gotten if he was a free agent that offseason.

 

What do you think that would have been?

[dgalehouse]

Cleveland apparently wanted Logan Allen as part of their return for Trevor Bauer, and he was the only MLB pitcher they received. He had value then, right?

 

There’s a 5 and a half year gap between “then” and today. It’s not a binary choice…

 

It was a three team deal. I think Cleveland got six or seven players for Bauer . Logan Allen stinks. And he has for the whole five and a half years . You thought he was going to be good . But he wasn't . Dombrowski knew . It's okay .

[moonslav59]

It was a three team deal. I think Cleveland got six or seven players for Bauer . Logan Allen stinks. And he has for the whole five and a half years . You thought he was going to be good . But he wasn't . Dombrowski knew . It's okay .

 

He sucked in 2019 and played in 3 games in 2020. He pitched well before that. That’s not 5.5 years.

[dgalehouse]

He sucked in 2019 and played in 3 games in 2020. He pitched well before that. That’s not 5.5 years.

 

He has an MLB career record of 3-7 , with an ERA of 6.50 . That's not too good.

[moonslav59]

He has an MLB career record of 3-7 , with an ERA of 6.50 . That's not too good.

 

Yes and that’s been very few games and years- not 5.5.

 

That’s all I’m saying.

[Bellhorn04]

Kimbrel has had an outstanding career, with some bumps along the way, like so many other players. He has to be one of the top 5 or so relievers in history.

[dgalehouse]

Yes and that’s been very few games and years- not 5.5.

 

That’s all I’m saying.

 

Notin brought up the five and a half years. That's when we traded him. Maybe he'll still turn out to be useful. Who knows ? My point is in defending the original deal. We didn't give up all that much.

[moonslav59]

Notin brought up the five and a half years. That's when we traded him. Maybe he'll still turn out to be useful. Who knows ? My point is in defending the original deal. We didn't give up all that much.

 

Yes, in hindsight, it sure looks that way.

[Bellhorn04]

We often evaluate trades of prospects in hindsight.

[moonslav59]

We often evaluate trades of prospects in hindsight.

 

We do during and after, and ultimately the after is the one that counts.

[Kimmi]

Nope, not a double whammy. Contract was good.

 

The contract might not have seemed so bad if we had not given the prospects up on top of that.

 

Regardless, I'm not paying that much for a relief pitcher. You can get almost the same value, if not the same value, for a fraction of the cost.

 

Also, in terms of getting value back for prospects given up, you cannot just consider whether the prospects have done anything since the trade occurred. The value that they have in trade is not the same as what they actually end up producing.

[Kimmi]

What's the issue with years of service if guys like Guerra/Allen/Asuaje aren't providing meaningful contributions to an MLB organization?

 

Are these guys finished or might they still contribute?

 

Might Margot be worth more before he becomes a free agent?

[Kimmi]

It worked out, but that does not mean it wasn’t an overpay. I was surprised the Sox gave up that much and took on the entire salary for a pitcher who, seven months earlier, was traded with salary dump BJ Upton for Carlos Quentin (salary dump who never played again), Cameron Maybin, and one ranked prospect in Matt Wisler…

 

Ding Ding Ding

 

We have a winner.

[mvp 78]

Are these guys finished or might they still contribute?

 

Might Margot be worth more before he becomes a free agent?

 

Guerra and Asuaje are nobodies. Allen could contribute, but it looks more and more unlikely by the day.

[mvp 78]

Could DD have made the trade with just 3 players instead of 4? Probably. Did it come back and bite us? Nope.

 

So as I said before, maybe a mild overpay but it all worked itself out.

[Bellhorn04]

Could DD have made the trade with just 3 players instead of 4? Probably. Did it come back and bite us? Nope.

 

So as I said before, maybe a mild overpay but it all worked itself out.

 

Mild overpay sums it up.

[Bellhorn04]

The contract might not have seemed so bad if we had not given the prospects up on top of that.

 

Regardless, I'm not paying that much for a relief pitcher. You can get almost the same value, if not the same value, for a fraction of the cost.

 

If you're the Rays you can LOL

 

With the Red Sox, whenever we tried the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach for a bullpen, it didn't work very well. See our 2015 bullpen.

 

With Kimbrel we got one of the best relievers ever, for only 2 years and 24 million guaranteed, plus a team option year. If we had got him as a free agent for that deal, I think most people would have said it was a bargain.

[moonslav59]

If you're the Rays you can LOL

 

With the Red Sox, whenever we tried the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach for a bullpen, it didn't work very well. See our 2015 bullpen.

 

With Kimbrel we got one of the best relievers ever, for only 2 years and 24 million guaranteed, plus a team option year. If we had got him as a free agent for that deal, I think most people would have said it was a bargain.

 

While top closer money sky-rocketed after we acquired Kimbrel, it was not that high before and the season we traded for him.

 

Top RP'er signings for 2016:

 

Darren Day $7.75 x 4

Marco Estrada $13 x 2

Joakim Soria $7.3 x 3

 

2015:

F Liriano $13M x 3

David Robertson $11.5M x 4

Andrew Miller $9M x 4

L Gregerson $6.2M x 3

 

Sure, Kimbrel was better than these guys, but he was making top or near top closer pay at the time.

 

It was the next season Chapman made $17.2M x 5, and Jansen made $16M x 5.

[notin]

If you're the Rays you can LOL

 

With the Red Sox, whenever we tried the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach for a bullpen, it didn't work very well. See our 2015 bullpen.

 

With Kimbrel we got one of the best relievers ever, for only 2 years and 24 million guaranteed, plus a team option year. If we had got him as a free agent for that deal, I think most people would have said it was a bargain.

 

Well, free agents don’t cost three top 100 prospects…

[notin]

If you're the Rays you can LOL

 

With the Red Sox, whenever we tried the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach for a bullpen, it didn't work very well. See our 2015 bullpen.

 

With Kimbrel we got one of the best relievers ever, for only 2 years and 24 million guaranteed, plus a team option year. If we had got him as a free agent for that deal, I think most people would have said it was a bargain.

 

What about the 2020 bullpen? The only experienced reliever we added was coming off a season with an ERA well over 5. Unlike the 2015 bullpen, which was loaded with experienced (and successful) MLB relievers.

 

Also while Kimbreltrack record was impressive, certainly 2015 closer Uehara’s was as well. Remember how Uehara became the closer? Two pitchers ahead of him went down for the season…

[notin]

Guerra and Asuaje are nobodies. Allen could contribute, but it looks more and more unlikely by the day.

 

Guerra is injured, but his position switch and 100 mph fastball are certainly intriguing…

[Bellhorn04]

While top closer money sky-rocketed after we acquired Kimbrel, it was not that high before and the season we traded for him.

 

Top RP'er signings for 2016:

 

Darren Day $7.75 x 4

Marco Estrada $13 x 2

Joakim Soria $7.3 x 3

 

2015:

F Liriano $13M x 3

David Robertson $11.5M x 4

Andrew Miller $9M x 4

L Gregerson $6.2M x 3

 

Sure, Kimbrel was better than these guys, but he was making top or near top closer pay at the time.

 

It was the next season Chapman made $17.2M x 5, and Jansen made $16M x 5.

 

As I keep asking, what would Kimbrel have gotten if he WAS a free agent that offseason.

 

Based on what we know, it would have been around 70 million.

 

The previous big contract for a closer was Paps at 50 million after 2011.

 

My estimate is a totally fair one.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, free agents don’t cost three top 100 prospects…

 

I know that notin. My only point all along has been that Kimbrel's contract was a relative bargain. It was not a 'double whammy'.

 

As mvp says, it was a mild overpay.

[notin]

As I keep asking, what would Kimbrel have gotten if he WAS a free agent that offseason.

 

Based on what we know, it would have been around 70 million.

 

The previous big contract for a closer was Paps at 50 million after 2011.

 

My estimate is a totally fair one.

 

 

Maybe.

 

I might have missed one but the biggest contract for an RP that off-season appears to have been 4 years $31mill for Darren O’Day. Certainly Kimbrel gets more money and probably the same years (five year deals for relievers are still rare). $60-$70 mill would be the range. But what’s your point?

 

Really what it looks like is Dombrowski escalated his price to convince San Diego to sell. That means yes, he had to overpay. If San Diego was dumping salary, he really went overboard. And for a team with as many needs on pitching as the 2015 Red Sox, spending all the allowance on a closer did not look like a good idea.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe.

 

I might have missed one but the biggest contract for an RP that off-season appears to have been 4 years $31mill for Darren O’Day. Certainly Kimbrel gets more money and probably the same years (five year deals for relievers are still rare). $60-$70 mill would be the range. But what’s your point?

 

Then you agree with my simple point, which is that it wasn't a "double whammy". We overpaid in prospect capital, but it was a good contract.

[notin]

Then you agree with my simple point, which is that it wasn't a "double whammy". We overpaid in prospect capital, but it was a good contract.

 

And at the time I believe I posted that I was shocked we gave up so many prospects for one reliever AND took on the entire contract…

[dgalehouse]

As I stated previously, the criticism of the Kimbrel trade was understandable at the time. But given the results all the way around , it was an excellent deal for the Sox. The proof is always in the pudding. To continue to criticize the deal seems more like stubbornness than it does reality. I really don't have much more to say . The whole debate is getting too repetitive.

[notin]

As I stated previously, the criticism of the Kimbrel trade was understandable at the time. But given the results all the way around , it was an excellent deal for the Sox. The proof is always in the pudding. To continue to criticize the deal seems more like stubbornness than it does reality. I really don't have much more to say . The whole debate is getting too repetitive.

 

Continue to criticize? You do realize that you are the one who started it all back up by asking about Logan Allen…