Betts agree to $20M contract

[Kimmi]

What teams consistently put "poor quality on the field"?

 

The last winning season and last postseason appearance by each team:

 

Atlanta 2018, 2018

Arizona 2018, 2017

Baltimore 2016, 2016

Boston 2018, 2018

Chicago Cubs 2018, 2018

Chicago White Sox 2012, 2008

Cincinnati 2013, 2013

Cleveland 2018, 2018

Colorado 2018, 2018

Detroit 2016, 2014

Houston 2018, 2018

Kansas City 2015, 2015

Los Angeles Angels 2015, 2014

Los Angeles Dodgers 2018, 2018

Miami 2009, 2003

Milwaukee 2018, 2018

Minnesota 2017, 2017

New York Mets 2016, 2016

New York Yankees 2018, 2018

Oakland 2018, 2018

Philadelphia 2011, 2011

Pittsburgh 2018, 2015

Saint Louis 2018, 2015

San Diego 2010, 2006

San Francisco 2016, 2016

Seattle 2018, 2001

Tampa Bay 2018, 2013

Texas 2016, 2016

Toronto 2016, 2016

Washington 2018, 2017

 

Most laggards have shown the willingness to spend money.

 

I'm not sure looking at their most recent postseason appearance is the best way to look at it.

 

How about the number of postseason appearances in the last 10 or 15 years?

[Kimmi]

The Mariners.

 

Ouch.

[Nick]

What teams consistently put "poor quality on the field"?

 

The last winning season and last postseason appearance by each team:

 

Atlanta 2018, 2018

Arizona 2018, 2017

Baltimore 2016, 2016

Boston 2018, 2018

Chicago Cubs 2018, 2018

Chicago White Sox 2012, 2008

Cincinnati 2013, 2013

Cleveland 2018, 2018

Colorado 2018, 2018

Detroit 2016, 2014

Houston 2018, 2018

Kansas City 2015, 2015

Los Angeles Angels 2015, 2014

Los Angeles Dodgers 2018, 2018

Miami 2009, 2003

Milwaukee 2018, 2018

Minnesota 2017, 2017

New York Mets 2016, 2016

New York Yankees 2018, 2018

Oakland 2018, 2018

Philadelphia 2011, 2011

Pittsburgh 2018, 2015

Saint Louis 2018, 2015

San Diego 2010, 2006

San Francisco 2016, 2016

Seattle 2018, 2001

Tampa Bay 2018, 2013

Texas 2016, 2016

Toronto 2016, 2016

Washington 2018, 2017

 

Most laggards have shown the willingness to spend money.

 

Thanks for that.

 

Cincinnati is a small market team competing with the Cubs and the Cardinals.

 

San Diego is fighting big spender Dodgers and the Giants that have won three world championships in this century (2nd most).

 

Seattle went up first against the Angels and now the Astros.

 

Miami is another no show fans franchise competing against the Mets, the Nationals and the Phillies.

 

I'm just not sure what the answer is. If players want more money then they need to get rid of luxury tax rules.

 

Red Sox would have signed Kimbrel had it not for 52% surtax on top of 30% luxury tax and the loss of 10 spots in the draft.

[dgalehouse]

Thanks for that.

 

Cincinnati is a small market team competing with the Cubs and the Cardinals.

 

San Diego is fighting big spender Dodgers and the Giants that have won three world championships in this century (2nd most).

 

Seattle went up first against the Angels and now the Astros.

 

Miami is another no show fans franchise competing against the Mets, the Nationals and the Phillies.

 

I'm just not sure what the answer is. If players want more money then they need to get rid of luxury tax rules.

 

Red Sox would have signed Kimbrel had it not for 52% surtax on top of 30% luxury tax and the loss of 10 spots in the draft.

What constitutes a big market depends on more than just population. There are numerous other factors. But one thing for sure . You have to market the team and try to put an exciting and contending club on the field so the fans want to spend their money to watch them . Unfortunately, that is not always the case .

[harmony]

What constitutes a big market depends on more than just population. There are numerous other factors. But one thing for sure . You have to market the team and try to put an exciting and contending club on the field so the fans want to spend their money to watch them . Unfortunately, that is not always the case .

We probably all know that person who lives paycheck to paycheck, never saving a dime and never planning for the future.

 

I used that analogy back in 2013 when the Houston Astros were losing 111 games a season-ending payroll of only $29.3 million. The Astros could have spent all of their revenue-sharing money and still not come close to being competitive. Instead Houston patiently let its young players develop before investing in higher-paid veterans. The 2017 Astros won the World Series with a payroll of $140.5 million and ended the 2018 season ranked seventh among all clubs with a payroll of $187.4 million.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/

 

In short, the Astros saved their money until it was prudent to spend.

 

Houston benefited from some high draft picks but endured the disappointments of No. 1 overall picks Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. The Astros have reaped the rewards of No. 1 pick Carlos Correa, No. 2 pick Alex Bregman, No. 11 pick George Springer and No. 41 pick Lance McCullers Jr.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=HOU&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

Edited March 4, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

For the record: In the past decade the Red Sox have as many last-place finishes as the Houston Astros.

 

That's deceiving. The Sox did not "tank," and the highest draft picks they have gotten are...

 

7th in 2013

7th in 2015

12th in 2016

 

The Astros:

 

8th in 2010

11th in 2011 (Springer)

1st in 2012 (Correa)

1st in 2013 (Appel)

1st in 2014 (Aiken)

2nd in 2015 (Bregman)

5th in 2016 (Tucker)

 

It's apples to oranges.

 

[dgalehouse]

We probably all know that person who lives paycheck to paycheck, never saving a dime and never planning for the future.

 

I used that analogy back in 2013 when the Houston Astros were losing 111 games a season-ending payroll of only $29.3 million. The Astros could have spent all of their revenue-sharing money and still not come close to being competitive. Instead Houston patiently let their young players develop before investing in higher-paid veterans. The 2017 Astros won the World Series with a payroll of $140.5 million and ended the 2018 season ranked seventh among all clubs with a payroll of $187.4 million.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/

 

In short, the Astros saved their money until it was prudent to spend.

 

Houston benefited from some high draft picks but endured the disappointments of No. 1 overall picks Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. The Astros have reaped the rewards of No. 1 pick Carlos Correa, No. 2 pick Alex Bregman, No. 11 pick George Springer and No. 41 pick Lance McCullers Jr.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=HOU&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

The Astros are certainly a model for building a winner . No question.

[moonslav59]

What constitutes a big market depends on more than just population. There are numerous other factors. But one thing for sure . You have to market the team and try to put an exciting and contending club on the field so the fans want to spend their money to watch them . Unfortunately, that is not always the case .

 

Yes, there are cases where teams make the playoffs and still don't sell out the playoff games.

 

[moonslav59]

The Astros are certainly a model for building a winner . No question.

 

So, we should let the cliff happen, ride it out for a while and then enter a new winning phase?

 

[dgalehouse]

So, we should let the cliff happen, ride it out for a while and then enter a new winning phase?

 

 

No . We are accustomed to winning. It is expected. The fans want it . The real dynasties don't rebuild. They reload . Plus , I am getting too old for that .

[Larry Cook]

No . We are accustomed to winning. It is expected. The fans want it . The real dynasties don't rebuild. They reload . Plus , I am getting too old for that .

 

After we won it all in 2013, we had a couple of lean seasons. How much did those last place finishes cost the bottom line? I know we will never know he answer to that question, but I think the answer to that question had a lot to do with defining our strategy toward the on the field product going forward.

[moonslav59]

We didn't really capitalize too much on our 3 last place finishes, except for the Beni draft pick in 2015.

 

One could argue we did as good or better drafting after the 2013 championship season saw us picking 26th. Here are the notable picks those 4 years:

 

2013 (after our last place finish in 2012)

7- Trey Ball

45- Teddy Stankiewicz

81- Jon Denny

 

2014 (after winning it all)

26- Michael Chavis

33- Michael Kopech (Comp pick for Ellsbury)

67- Sam Travis

(164- Ockimey/404- C. Shepherd)

 

2015 (after a last place season)

7- Andrew Benintendi

81- Austin Rei

(171- T Lakins/411- Poyner)

 

2016 (after a last place finish)

12- Jay Groome

51- CJ Chatham

88- Shaun Anderson

118- Bobby Dalbec

(148- Shawaryn)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[notin]

No . We are accustomed to winning. It is expected. The fans want it . The real dynasties don't rebuild. They reload . Plus , I am getting too old for that .

 

 

Exactly.

 

And the current plan for reloading is to keep as many of the current young stars as possible. While plenty of fans and some in the media chastised the Sox for not going “all in” in 2019 and bringing back Kimbrel or a close equivalent, I think a big part of the reason was to keep some cash and payroll space available for as many of Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, etc. as possible.

 

I don’t think Porcello is on this list, but he might be. DD has a long history with him...

[notin]

We didn't really capitalize too much on our 3 last place finishes, except for the Beni draft pick in 2015.

 

One could argue we did as good or better drafting after the 2013 championship season saw us picking 26th. Here are the notable picks those 4 years:

 

2013 (after our last place finish in 2012)

7- Trey Ball

45- Teddy Stankiewicz

81- Jon Denny

 

2014 (after winning it all)

26- Michael Chavis

33- Michael Kopech (Comp pick for Ellsbury)

67- Sam Travis

(164- Ockimey/404- C. Shepherd)

 

2015 (after a last place season)

7- Andrew Benintendi

81- Austin Rei

(171- T Lakins/411- Poyner)

 

2016 (after a last place finish)

12- Jay Groome

51- CJ Chatham

88- Shaun Anderson

118- Bobby Dalbec

(148- Shawaryn)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was reading one article somewhere that did a study of fWAR accrued by everybteam in recent drafts. The conclusion was that the overwhelming majority came from first round picks. Certainly everything that comes after isn’t luck, but it does appear to be less and inconsistent.

 

The Sox have 5 first round picks in your list. It’s a bit early to give pass/fail grades to Chavis and Groome (although Groome hasn’t given anyone a reason to get excited either), but certainly Benintendi and Kopech have worked out for Boston, even without Kopech ever making the MLB squad. If both Chavis and Groome do pan out, that’s actually a pretty good run of first rounders. Remember, about 30% of all first round picks never play Major League Baseball...

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly.

 

And the current plan for reloading is to keep as many of the current young stars as possible. While plenty of fans and some in the media chastised the Sox for not going “all in” in 2019 and bringing back Kimbrel or a close equivalent, I think a big part of the reason was to keep some cash and payroll space available for as many of Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, etc. as possible.

 

I don’t think Porcello is on this list, but he might be. DD has a long history with him...

 

I'm quite sure Porcello is not out of the picture for being retained.

[notin]

I'm quite sure Porcello is not out of the picture for being retained.

 

 

OK. But I might be correct in assuming he’s not the highest priority.

 

 

He might have the advantage of being the easiest to keep...

[notin]

What constitutes a big market depends on more than just population.

 

 

That always confused me.

 

 

Boston is about the same size as Detroit and is smaller than Toronto and Atlanta (metropolitan areas, not city), but somehow the Sox can support a much more expensive team than all three, and do so year in and year out.. And it’s not like those teams don’t have recent successes. But they do all apparently have fan bases with less patience....

[moonslav59]

That always confused me.

 

 

Boston is about the same size as Detroit and is smaller than Toronto and Atlanta (metropolitan areas, not city), but somehow the Sox can support a much more expensive team than all three, and do so year in and year out.. And it’s not like those teams don’t have recent successes. But they do all apparently have fan bases with less patience....

 

Almost all of New Englanders are Sox fans. That adds to the fan base beyond the city and metropolitan area limits.

 

There are also less transplant fans as there are in growing areas or areas where people go to retire (like Florida).

[notin]

Almost all of New Englanders are Sox fans. That adds to the fan base beyond the city and metropolitan area limits.

 

There are also less transplant fans as there are in growing areas or areas where people go to retire (like Florida).

 

But those other regions are as large or larger, have further to the next competing market, have transplanted fans who move when they retire, etc. and everything the Sox have for a fan base. But they apparently also have some sort of regional or cultural stigma against mediocre baseball teams. Detroit even has just as long of a history as Boston with baseball and Michigan plus northern Indiana has about the same population as New England. Toronto has no other competing team in the entire country. Atlanta has about 20% more people in their metro area alone . So why are these markets so much smaller?

[moonslav59]

But those other regions are as large or larger, have further to the next competing market, have transplanted fans who move when they retire, etc. and everything the Sox have for a fan base. But they apparently also have some sort of regional or cultural stigma against mediocre baseball teams. Detroit even has just as long of a history as Boston with baseball and Michigan plus northern Indiana has about the same population as New England. Toronto has no other competing team in the entire country. Atlanta has about 20% more people in their metro area alone . So why are these markets so much smaller?

 

Northern Indiana has Chicago, Cleveland and Cincinnati to choose over Detroit.

 

The South is football country.

 

California is California.

 

Atlanta should have all Georgia, parts of Florida and other surrounding states. Plus, they have TBS. I just don't think baseball is all that big in that area.

[Slasher9]

But those other regions are as large or larger, have further to the next competing market, have transplanted fans who move when they retire, etc. and everything the Sox have for a fan base. But they apparently also have some sort of regional or cultural stigma against mediocre baseball teams. Detroit even has just as long of a history as Boston with baseball and Michigan plus northern Indiana has about the same population as New England. Toronto has no other competing team in the entire country. Atlanta has about 20% more people in their metro area alone . So why are these markets so much smaller?

 

Boston is a baseball town. toronto is hockey. atlanta is college football.

[harmony]

Boston is a baseball town. toronto is hockey. atlanta is college football.

The Pacific Northwest is football (soccer) country.

[notin]

Boston is a baseball town. toronto is hockey. atlanta is college football.

 

 

Really how many entire urban areas are dedicated to one sport? Boston also has a really good basketball following. They have a solid football following right now, too, but I don’t think it’s representative of when the Patriots are not doing well (whenever that’s is)...

[moonslav59]

Really how many entire urban areas are dedicated to one sport? Boston also has a really good basketball following. They have a solid football following right now, too, but I don’t think it’s representative of when the Patriots are not doing well (whenever that’s is)...

 

Not "totally" dedicated, but the northeast is certainly more baseball friendly than the south, central or western USA.

 

That has to play a role in the numbers game.

 

FYI, the Celtics did not draw all that well during their dynasty. They only drew more than 9,000 fans once from 1957 to 1971.

 

The Pirates couldn't even sell out their World Series games in 1971 and 1979. They are a football town, and even the Penguins almost outdraw the Pirates!

[harmony]

Not "totally" dedicated, but the northeast is certainly more baseball friendly than the south, central or western USA.

 

That has to play a role in the numbers game.

 

FYI, the Celtics did not draw all that well during their dynasty. They only drew more than 9,000 fans once from 1957 to 1971.

 

The Pirates couldn't even sell out their World Series games in 1971 and 1979. They are a football town, and even the Penguins almost outdraw the Pirates!

I suspect the South and West produce more MLB players per capita than New England.

[moonslav59]

I suspect the South and West produce more MLB players per capita than New England.

 

No doubt. The late arrival of spring and summer play a big role in that, but in terms of watching baseball, the northeast weather is better suited for mid summer viewing outdoors. (And, watching football outside in November & December less welcoming.)

[S5Dewey]

No doubt. The late arrival of spring and summer play a big role in that, but in terms of watching baseball, the northeast weather is better suited for mid summer viewing outdoors. (And, watching football outside in November & December less welcoming.)

 

Unfortunately there's essentially no amateur baseball played in the Northeast during the weather that's best for baseball. There are two universities relatively close by me. One is a D3 school and their regular season is OVER by the first week in April, and in case you didn't notice the first week in April is very close to the last week in March which isn't baseball weather in Maine.

The other is a D1 school and their season is usually over by the 2nd week in June.

[harmony]

No doubt. The late arrival of spring and summer play a big role in that, but in terms of watching baseball, the northeast weather is better suited for mid summer viewing outdoors. (And, watching football outside in November & December less welcoming.)

I prefer the drier summer weather on the West Coast to the muggy, rainier summer weather in New England.

[notin]

 

FYI, the Celtics did not draw all that well during their dynasty. They only drew more than 9,000 fans once from 1957 to 1971.

 

!

 

Not really fair.

 

Until the 1980’ the NBA has a major exposure problem. Games were never televised nationally and even the playoffs were scheduled around when networks wanted to air them. Sometimes they played in the late afternoon on weekdays!

[moonslav59]

Not really fair.

 

Until the 1980’ the NBA has a major exposure problem. Games were never televised nationally and even the playoffs were scheduled around when networks wanted to air them. Sometimes they played in the late afternoon on weekdays!

 

Other cities drew more than the Celtics during those years, even though they lost more.