Betts agree to $20M contract

[Kimmi]

f I were flow charting my first question is do you think we'll reset? Honestly? I'd say no. I think at some point $40M over the threshhold becomes our 'hard cap'. That means Henry is willing to spend $23M in penalties. This will be true as long as we're getting into the playoffs

 

Not sure where you are coming from...I clearly said NO RESET.

 

This is basically the same thing I've been suggesting. It doesn't necessarily make sense to do a re-set, if you can at least stay below that 40 million+ level and you've got a playoff contender.

 

I still think the reset is coming within the next 2 years.

[moonslav59]

Tying up so much money in one player seems a little counter-intuitive to me.

 

The money saved from not re-signing Mookie could fill several holes.

 

There will be a massive hole in the line-up.

[moonslav59]

I still think the reset is coming within the next 2 years.

 

Me, too. If we don't sign anyone to more than 1 year from here on out, I'm almost certain it will be after 2019.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think the reset is coming within the next 2 years.

 

I absolutely agree. I think the Sox go for it this year. They snag a closer on a one year deal or deal for one at the deadline who has an expiring contract or has one more year remaining. The Sox then lose some talent for 2020 and slide behind the Yanks by a fair margin hence justifying to the fan base a “re-set”. They make every effort to re-sign Betts and are likely successful while also extending Beni and Devers for those three to be the new faces of the next wave in 2023 or so.

[dgalehouse]

Two Sox fans walked into a bar . The bartender said ; " When do you guys think John Henry is going to reset ?" Two Sox fans walked out of the bar .

[Bellhorn04]

Me, too. If we don't sign anyone to more than 1 year from here on out, I'm almost certain it will be after 2019.

 

 

Here's a question about the reset then.

 

Let's say the Red Sox decide they do want to keep Betts, plus Sale and Porcello, or Sale and Bogey-3 of the big 5-and they are successful with that, and they think they can keep a contending team on the field. Can they actually do that and get back under the first threshold?

[jacksonianmarch]

No, they cannot. I put the numbers out there. Based on arb estimates and salaries, the Sox will have $71 mil to fill 2 starting pitcher spots, SS, 1B, 2B, and DH plus positional backup spots and extra pen slots.

 

Also, one must remember that Sale is either gonna get ridonculous money or be damaged goods. If you’re signing him for big money, he’s gonna surpass Price.

[moonslav59]

Here's a question about the reset then.

 

Let's say the Red Sox decide they do want to keep Betts, plus Sale and Porcello, or Sale and Bogey-3 of the big 5-and they are successful with that, and they think they can keep a contending team on the field. Can they actually do that and get back under the first threshold?

 

I doubt they can pay Price, Sale, JD, Betts last arb and Bogey or Porcello. That's why we call it a cliff.

 

We say good bye to Sale & Porcello, which might not be awful, if Sale shows injury issues this year. We can probably keep Price, Betts, JD and Bogey. We can spend large again in 2021 and maybe get quickly back in the race, if a couple prospects step up by then or Beni & Devers go nutty.

 

[moonslav59]

No, they cannot. I put the numbers out there. Based on arb estimates and salaries, the Sox will have $71 mil to fill 2 starting pitcher spots, SS, 1B, 2B, and DH plus positional backup spots and extra pen slots.

 

Maybe keep JD and Bogey for $51-55M. That leaves $16-20M for a SP or 2 lesser ones. We fill 1B with Chavis & Dalbec and 2B with Lin or a cheap find.

 

Price

Eovaldi

ERod

FA

Wright/Johnson/Velzquez

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD M DH

5. Devers 3B

6. JBJ CF

7. Chavis/Dalbec 1B

8. Vaz

9. Lin/Chatham 2B

 

Then, maybe in 2021, we go back to $39M over and fill the biggest gaps.

[Nick]

Maybe keep JD and Bogey for $51-55M. That leaves $16-20M for a SP or 2 lesser ones. We fill 1B with Chavis & Dalbec and 2B with Lin or a cheap find.

 

Price

Eovaldi

ERod

FA

Wright/Johnson/Velzquez

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD M DH

5. Devers 3B

6. JBJ CF

7. Chavis/Dalbec 1B

8. Vaz

9. Lin/Chatham 2B

 

Then, maybe in 2021, we go back to $39M over and fill the biggest gaps.

 

I doubt Henry is going to destroy a contending team for money he can afford.

[Nick]

"Then, maybe in 2021, we go back to $39M over and fill the biggest gaps."

 

What to reset again in 3 years?

[moonslav59]

"Then, maybe in 2021, we go back to $39M over and fill the biggest gaps."

 

What to reset again in 3 years?

 

Maybe, or maybe go $40M over 2 times in a row (again) before resetting.

 

Maybe start just going $10-19M over for 4-5 years in a row.

 

Maybe not jump $39M in 2021.

 

Lots of directions that depend on how lots of things shake out.

 

[moonslav59]

I doubt Henry is going to destroy a contending team for money he can afford.

 

He built the team.

 

If he can keep the "cliff" to one year, it may be a better option than deciding to pay mega taxes forever.

 

Do you really want us to keep spending more and more and become what we all hated when the Yanks did it?

[Nick]

He built the team.

 

If he can keep the "cliff" to one year, it may be a better option than deciding to pay mega taxes forever.

 

Do you really want us to keep spending more and more and become what we all hated when the Yanks did it?

 

I guess you missed the part where I said $40M over the tax limit becomes the HARD CAP for the Sox. Pay perpetual $23M penalty until new CBA comes into play.

 

Even at $40M above the limit, we can't keep everyone.

[moonslav59]

I guess you missed the part where I said $40M over the tax limit becomes the HARD CAP for the Sox. Pay perpetual $23M penalty until new CBA comes into play.

 

Even at $40M above the limit, we can't keep everyone.

 

Yes, but periodically reset to save many many millions.

 

Look, I'd love to stay highly competitive every year, and if Henry wants to be the next King George, then so be it.

 

I'm just not going to be a hypocrite and call for him to do just that (not that you or others are).

 

I'd like to see us win 4 rimes every 15 years and am okay with some off years in between, in fact, I think it is necessary, now that our farm is all but toast.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I doubt Henry is going to destroy a contending team for money he can afford.

 

It isn't about destroying anything. It is about guys hitting FA and going elsewhere

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, but periodically reset to save many many millions.

 

Look, I'd love to stay highly competitive every year, and if Henry wants to be the next King George, then so be it.

 

I'm just not going to be a hypocrite and call for him to do just that (not that you or others are).

 

I'd like to see us win 4 rimes every 15 years and am okay with some off years in between, in fact, I think it is necessary, now that our farm is all but toast.

 

 

Henry openly mocked the Yankees for their expenditures and now he has the distinction to be the only team to be hit with the draft penalty and he amassed the most expensive champion of all time. Ironic, eh?

 

Here is what is going to happen. Henry is going to be forced to reset soon. The benefit for him is that the CBA will expire and he can sell a "rebuild" to the masses coming off at least one title. The CBA then will get reworked and I highly, highly, think that the players are going to obliterate the lux tax limits. The current setup benefits big market clubs who reset. If those big market clubs are the Yanks, LA, Boston, or Chicago and two of them reset in the same offseason, the market dies and the players don't get paid.

 

We are also seeing a shift from paying free agents to developing your talent. I think the players will either hold out to remove lux tax implications OR to get players to free agency sooner. To be honest with you, I think the smaller markets would take the lux tax penalties going away to keep the 6 years of control.

Edited January 15, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[Bellhorn04]

Henry openly mocked the Yankees for their expenditures

 

Link please.

[cp176]

Henry openly mocked the Yankees for their expenditures and now he has the distinction to be the only team to be hit with the draft penalty and he amassed the most expensive champion of all time. Ironic, eh?

 

Here is what is going to happen. Henry is going to be forced to reset soon. The benefit for him is that the CBA will expire and he can sell a "rebuild" to the masses coming off at least one title. The CBA then will get reworked and I highly, highly, think that the players are going to obliterate the lux tax limits. The current setup benefits big market clubs who reset. If those big market clubs are the Yanks, LA, Boston, or Chicago and two of them reset in the same offseason, the market dies and the players don't get paid.

 

We are also seeing a shift from paying free agents to developing your talent. I think the players will either hold out to remove lux tax implications OR to get players to free agency sooner. To be honest with you, I think the smaller markets would take the lux tax penalties going away to keep the 6 years of control.

 

I agree. Of course I don't follow this crap as much as you and a very few others here do, but I do think something has got to change. It may certainly look like there is collusion when it comes to a failure to sign some of the big stars in the game but the current rules and restrictions make it possible without eyebrows being raised. It just kind of looks good for owners and not so much for players. Obviously there continues to be an incredible amount of money in the game.

[Nick]

I agree. Of course I don't follow this crap as much as you and a very few others here do, but I do think something has got to change. It may certainly look like there is collusion when it comes to a failure to sign some of the big stars in the game but the current rules and restrictions make it possible without eyebrows being raised. It just kind of looks good for owners and not so much for players. Obviously there continues to be an incredible amount of money in the game.

 

 

I'm not sure if there's a collusion. It's more like Economics 101. 10 year, $350M deals are very risky. Think what we can buy with Pablo's $17M.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure if there's a collusion. It's more like Economics 101. 10 year, $350M deals are very risky. Think what we can buy with Pablo's $17M.

 

That's certainly part of it, and it's understandable.

 

But how many teams are now making the decision not to add payroll, or to cut payroll, simply because it improves their bottom line?

 

So instead of buying something with Pablo's $17M, you can put it in your pocket.

[Nick]

That's certainly part of it, and it's understandable.

 

But how many teams are now making the decision not to add payroll, or to cut payroll, simply because it improves their bottom line?

 

So instead of buying something with Pablo's $17M, you can put it in your pocket.

 

Yep...Perhaps Rays ownership has it right.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s not just economics 101. For the economics of a middle or small market club, it clearly is, but for large market clubs, it isn’t. Follow me for a second. A WS winning team becomes a gold mine, not just for the season they win, but for the following season or two. The players become more marketable and the city brings people in from all over to watch the champs play. The problem is, spending doesn’t always equal winning, but the spoils are there if you can take the title. For a small or mid market team, that means years of planning and developing and then winning in your tiny window. What large market clubs get to do is effectively create their window whenever they want by throwing money around, so long as they choose wisely. Their spending limits wouldn’t necessarily be the lux tax, they’d be based on revenue. Classically, the salary to revenue percentage was about 50%. Well, for the largest market clubs, their revenues are well exceeding double the lux tax line. For the Yankees, they were estimated at being under 30%. This cannot happen. For years, the owners vilified George for being the biggest spender in the sport, but having a team like NY to leverage in negotiations was good for the players. Now, with all large market teams handcuffed by the lux tax, they get to point at the lux tax while pocketing record profits. That is going to create the next strike and my guess is the Yankees and Sox will get far more room to spend.

[moonslav59]

Henry openly mocked the Yankees for their expenditures and now he has the distinction to be the only team to be hit with the draft penalty and he amassed the most expensive champion of all time. Ironic, eh?

 

Here is what is going to happen. Henry is going to be forced to reset soon. The benefit for him is that the CBA will expire and he can sell a "rebuild" to the masses coming off at least one title. The CBA then will get reworked and I highly, highly, think that the players are going to obliterate the lux tax limits. The current setup benefits big market clubs who reset. If those big market clubs are the Yanks, LA, Boston, or Chicago and two of them reset in the same offseason, the market dies and the players don't get paid.

 

We are also seeing a shift from paying free agents to developing your talent. I think the players will either hold out to remove lux tax implications OR to get players to free agency sooner. To be honest with you, I think the smaller markets would take the lux tax penalties going away to keep the 6 years of control.

 

I don't disagree.

 

Our biggest problem is that while the whole league seems to be moving towards "developing your own talent," we boxed ourselves in a corner by nearly emptying our farm to build this championship team and a 4-5 year window of high competitiveness.

 

I can't see any way Henry doesn't reset at some point soon. The Yanks and Dodgers did, because it's good business. Amazingly, they both were still highly competitive during their reset year. It's a dream to think we can reset and be that competitive in that year. We don't have the amount of cost controlled young players the Yanks & Dodgers had last year. We have too many key players about to make top dollar.

 

Our only way out is to try and minimize the "rebuild" to one or two year while maybe keeping a couple big and popular stars (Betts & ???) or expect Henry to keep spending more and more each year, including sky-rocketing taxes, surtaxes and penalties- some not financial.

 

We may not be as bad as some think we will be, when we do reset, so maybe the word "cliff" will end up being hyperbole, but it won't be easy to stay highly competitive for many years in a row without having a good farm. 2019 will be our 4th year in a row where we had a good chance at winning it all. That's a pretty nice stretch.

[Bellhorn04]

I've been reading the comments of a lot of Yankee fans who are really pissed that the Yankees do not seem to signing Machado or Harper. They outright assumed that the team reset the tax rate specifically for this purpose. And there were certainly a lot of stories to that effect.

 

So in an odd way, it might be somewhat of a public relations fiasco for them.

[moonslav59]

It’s not just economics 101. For the economics of a middle or small market club, it clearly is, but for large market clubs, it isn’t. Follow me for a second. A WS winning team becomes a gold mine, not just for the season they win, but for the following season or two. The players become more marketable and the city brings people in from all over to watch the champs play. The problem is, spending doesn’t always equal winning, but the spoils are there if you can take the title. For a small or mid market team, that means years of planning and developing and then winning in your tiny window. What large market clubs get to do is effectively create their window whenever they want by throwing money around, so long as they choose wisely. Their spending limits wouldn’t necessarily be the lux tax, they’d be based on revenue. Classically, the salary to revenue percentage was about 50%. Well, for the largest market clubs, their revenues are well exceeding double the lux tax line. For the Yankees, they were estimated at being under 30%. This cannot happen. For years, the owners vilified George for being the biggest spender in the sport, but having a team like NY to leverage in negotiations was good for the players. Now, with all large market teams handcuffed by the lux tax, they get to point at the lux tax while pocketing record profits. That is going to create the next strike and my guess is the Yankees and Sox will get far more room to spend.

 

Who knows what the next agreement will look like. The move from the players might be to greatly increase the minimum pay and early career pay and not so much the biggest of the big contracts for a select few players.

 

Wouldn't more players (over their careers) benefit from a min. ML salary of $1M with step raises to $2M until arb years rather than see a few of the best guys make $400M+?

[moonslav59]

I've been reading the comments of a lot of Yankee fans who are really pissed that the Yankees do not seem to signing Machado or Harper. They outright assumed that the team reset the tax rate specifically for this purpose. And there were certainly a lot of stories to that effect.

 

So in an odd way, it might be somewhat of a public relations fiasco for them.

 

Good point- same with the Dodgers.

 

Maybe the fact that the Yanks and Dodgers both were super competitive last year, despite resetting, has made them rethink their spending strategies.

 

There's lots of two year deals being signed these days.

[Nick]

I want both JD and Sale to remain with the Sox.

 

That said, JD was only a money transaction. He gave us what we paid for.

 

Sale in my opinion is little different. We gave up Moncada (and don't forget the matching fee that we paid for him) and Kopech. It's difficult for me to see DD simply letting Sale walk away. I would argue that DD has more vested in Sale than JD.

[moonslav59]

I want both JD and Sale to remain with the Sox.

 

That said, JD was only a money transaction. He gave us what we paid for.

 

Sale in my opinion is little different. We gave up Moncada (and don't forget the matching fee that we paid for him) and Kopech. It's difficult for me to see DD simply letting Sale walk away. I would argue that DD has more vested in Sale than JD.

 

We all want Sale & JD to stick around, assuming Sale's arm does not fall off this year. If we want to keep Betts, too, we're looking at this....

 

 

$34M Betts

$33M Sale

$31M Sale

$25M JD (maybe the only one without a long term deal)

Bogey?

 

You basically commit to going over the tax limit for as long as these deals last- probably by a lot.

[notin]

I want both JD and Sale to remain with the Sox.

 

That said, JD was only a money transaction. He gave us what we paid for.

 

Sale in my opinion is little different. We gave up Moncada (and don't forget the matching fee that we paid for him) and Kopech. It's difficult for me to see DD simply letting Sale walk away. I would argue that DD has more vested in Sale than JD.

 

 

Sale is a tough call. He’s clearly one of, if not the, best pitchers of hs generation. But he’s also looking more fragile as time goes on and all of those fears about his awkward deliver might be coming true.

 

It really all depends on his contract demands. That no one seems to be getting Price/Greinke money anymore boded well for Boston. But Sale also signed one of the most team-friendly extensions of recent years and may seek to compensate for that with his next contract...