Harper and Machado

[Bellhorn04]

What's going on here?

 

This offseason has been looked forward to for a couple of years because of the free agencies of these two young studs. There were predictions of red-hot auctions and of Harper maybe becoming the $400 million man.

 

But to date the market for these two has seemed pretty cool and cautious. Brian Cashman said the Yankees are interested in Machado but not at a price of $300 million.

 

Harper turned down a 10 year $300 million offer from the Nats, assuming he'd get much more, right?

 

How is this going to play out?

[Northern Star]

Is there finally a ceiling to the madness?

[dgalehouse]

Hard to predict. Harper and Machado are two of the best in the game , but both have drawbacks. Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are the only truly transcendent superstars.

[notin]

The White Sox are being blatant about both. Did they really have any other reason for acquiring a mediocre Yonder Alonso right before meeting with Machado? (Ok, apparently they did. It turns out Alonso is an old friend and former college teammate of another player on their radar - Yasmani Grandal.)

 

But the big reason nothing’s happening on this front is itysti early. January is typically the biggest month and February is for stragglers ( and also when Dombrowski typically operates, for those of you waiting on a closer.)

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Harper follows the money. I think Machado goes to the Yanks in a creative deal that may not have the highest guarantee, but he will get an early opt out and a higher AAV up front

[Northern Star]

I think Harper follows the money. I think Machado goes to the Yanks in a creative deal that may not have the highest guarantee, but he will get an early opt out and a higher AAV up front

 

As if we need another reason to hate him.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’ll be something where his first three year AAV is stupidly high but the last 7 years will be cheap relative to his talent. There’ll be an opt out after three years

[notin]

And an opt back in after 5 years.

 

Now THAT would be creative...

[Northern Star]

If players can get opt outs, teams should have them as well.

[moonslav59]

If players can get opt outs, teams should have them as well.

 

They do...team option years (sometimes 2-3 years)

[Bellhorn04]

If players can get opt outs, teams should have them as well.

 

They do...team option years (sometimes 2-3 years)

 

The difference being that the big-time player opt-outs are 'early' in the contract, giving the player the best of both worlds, security AND opportunity.

 

The team options are always 'tacked on' at the end.

 

Player opt-outs like the one in Price's contract are obviously just one more incentive for the player to sign on the bottom line.

[Bellhorn04]

So Boras is calling the Harper auction 'Harper's Bazaar'.

[notin]

The difference being that the big-time player opt-outs are 'early' in the contract, giving the player the best of both worlds, security AND opportunity.

 

The team options are always 'tacked on' at the end.

 

Player opt-outs like the one in Price's contract are obviously just one more incentive for the player to sign on the bottom line.

 

 

Well, look at the contracts for Sale and Kluber for example. Three guaranteed years and then two individually exercised options. By stringing multiple team options, the team has the ability to get out of a contract in what would be the middle of the deal. And often, more than once...

[notin]

So Boras is calling the Harper auction 'Harper's Bazaar'.

 

If nothing else, the man is a creative marketer...

[Bellhorn04]

If nothing else, the man is a creative marketer...

 

Yes. Sometimes it falls a little flat, as with 'King Kong of Slug', but it doesn't discourage him.

[Carpin]

The reason might be because a lot of people don't see Harper as the superstar he was supposed to be, most people compared him to Trout and in reality he's not even close to that level (at least not yet). Regarding Machado, those makeup issues might be affecting the expected "bidding war" for his services.

[Bellhorn04]

The reason might be because a lot of people don't see Harper as the superstar he was supposed to be, most people compared him to Trout and in reality he's not even close to that level (at least not yet). Regarding Machado, those makeup issues might be affecting the expected "bidding war" for his services.

 

It also seems that these things are just much more slow-developing now.

[dgalehouse]

My guess would be Machado to the Yankees and Harper to the Dodgers. Maybe not for as much money as speculated .

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem for Machado is his main non Yankee suitor just got Segura. I think the writing was on the wall. When the Yankees are in on a negotiation, the money goes higher than most teams are comfortable going. Heck, the Nationals gave out a contract far beyond expectations for Corbin as the Yanks were involved and the Yankees didn't even submit an offer! Machado's actions in the playoffs definitely hurt his bargaining power. Harper not having the Yankees involved hurts his as well. Both of these guys will get massive money. I just don't think either are getting what they hoped.

 

Now the Nats offered Harper 10 yrs $300 mil, although they are the kings of the deferred contract. I wonder how much they offered in deferred funds. I still stand by my initial prediction. Both are going to get 8-10 yr deals. Both will get less money guaranteed than anyone is predicting. They both will have front loaded deals and they both will have an opt out after the higher AAV money runs out. I agree with the above. The Dodgers are getting Harper and the Yanks will snag Machado

[notin]

So you think the cash-flush Phillies are going to get outbid here?

 

If Harper spurns the Phillies for LA, will he get the JD Drew treatment every time he plays there?

[moonslav59]

So you think the cash-flush Phillies are going to get outbid here?

 

If Harper spurns the Phillies for LA, will he get the JD Drew treatment every time he plays there?

 

Are the CWS serious contenders?

 

Are the Yanks laying low- only to spring to life and snatch one of these up at the last minute?

[Bellhorn04]

Are the CWS serious contenders?

 

Are the Yanks laying low- only to spring to life and snatch one of these up at the last minute?

 

Well, I think it's just about the 10th anniversary of their Teixeira swoop.

[moonslav59]

Well, I think it's just about the 10th anniversary of their Teixeira swoop.

 

I hope they swoop on Harper or Machado, and his contract cripples them for years and years.

 

Plus, it will make beating them all the more sweeter!

[Northern Star]

My guess would be Machado to the Yankees and Harper to the Dodgers. Maybe not for as much money as speculated .

 

Being reported today that LA won't give Harper a long term deal. Ergo, Harper will not be a Dodger. Because some moron's going to give him 8 to 10 years.

[Carpin]

Being reported today that LA won't give Harper a long term deal. Ergo, Harper will not be a Dodger. Because some moron's going to give him 8 to 10 years.

 

Boras will find an idiot to get the deal he's looking for.

 

Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.

Albert Einstein

[notin]

Are the CWS serious contenders?

 

Are the Yanks laying low- only to spring to life and snatch one of these up at the last minute?

 

They have money and a solid dirt cheap core. Why not?

 

Think they traded for Yonder Alonso because he’s good at baseball?

[notin]

Boras will find an idiot to get the deal he's looking for.

 

Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.

Albert Einstein

 

The Phillies are in the running. And St. Louis was willing to take Stanton’s entire contract one year ago. Don’t count them out...

[notin]

I still don’t know if you can count the Red Sox out on Machado.

 

1) Dombrowski has tried to get him before.

2) DD is no stranger to making mega-deals.

3) He’s already tried to open conversations for dealing Bogaerts (which opens up Machado’s position) and Porcello (which frees up most of the rest of the money).

4) Signing Machado now alleviates the off-season pressures as players start departing. (DD might even view signing Machado as a pre-emptive replacement against Betts leaving.)

 

I do also doubt he cares about how the fans feel about Machado...

[notin]

The problem for Machado is his main non Yankee suitor just got Segura. I think the writing was on the wall. When the Yankees are in on a negotiation, the money goes higher than most teams are comfortable going. Heck, the Nationals gave out a contract far beyond expectations for Corbin as the Yanks were involved and the Yankees didn't even submit an offer! Machado's actions in the playoffs definitely hurt his bargaining power. Harper not having the Yankees involved hurts his as well. Both of these guys will get massive money. I just don't think either are getting what they hoped.

 

Now the Nats offered Harper 10 yrs $300 mil, although they are the kings of the deferred contract. I wonder how much they offered in deferred funds. I still stand by my initial prediction. Both are going to get 8-10 yr deals. Both will get less money guaranteed than anyone is predicting. They both will have front loaded deals and they both will have an opt out after the higher AAV money runs out. I agree with the above. The Dodgers are getting Harper and the Yanks will snag Machado

 

 

Unless the Phillies can entice him to play 3rd ba$e...

[Kimmi]

I still don’t know if you can count the Red Sox out on Machado.

 

1) Dombrowski has tried to get him before.

2) DD is no stranger to making mega-deals.

3) He’s already tried to open conversations for dealing Bogaerts (which opens up Machado’s position) and Porcello (which frees up most of the rest of the money).

4) Signing Machado now alleviates the off-season pressures as players start departing. (DD might even view signing Machado as a pre-emptive replacement against Betts leaving.)

 

I do also doubt he cares about how the fans feel about Machado...

 

No. Just no. Please no.

 

Certainly, Dombrowski cares how I feel about Machado. He has been trying to get on my good side this past year, and has done a rather good job of it. A Machado signing would set him several years back.