The future of baseball

[Bellhorn04]

Is the great game of baseball in trouble?

 

Certainly the game is still extremely popular and the men who own major league franchises or otherwise have their fingers in the financial pie are still making tremendous piles of money, as are the players.

 

But there are some indicators that its popularity is on the decline-downturns in attendance and most recently the TV ratings for the game’s ultimate showcase, the World Series.

 

There have also been some rumblings and grumblings in various quarters, including right here on this forum, about the quality of the game itself as sporting competition and as entertainment.

 

Let’s enumerate what seem to be the most widespread and most recent complaints.

 

1) The games are too long, because of all the time between pitches, the mound visits, the pitching changes, and now the replay reviews.

 

2) The game has become dominated by stat geeks and computer analysts. They decide who the best players are, who the best players for the money are, and how to win more games.

 

3) All the fielding shifts are annoying and frustrating to watch.

 

4) Too much emphasis on the long ball. Too many hitters taking an all or nothing approach. Increase that launch angle so you can launch the ball over that damn shift and into the seats.

 

5) Thanks in large part to 4), there is not enough emphasis on the finer points of the game.

 

6) Bullpen games are now a thing, and the pitching ‘opener’ is a thing. The idea of a starter trying to throw a complete game now is a joke. You don’t really expect any of your pitchers to attempt to make it through the order three times, do you?

 

7) Two leagues with different rules, with opposing views on whether the pitcher trying to hit and run is a good idea. This creates a mess when the two leagues play against each other.

 

8) Umpires continue to call balls strikes and strikes balls at an unacceptable rate. Why not try robot umps?

 

So what should be done to improve the game? What CAN be done?

 

Will the game start to show the impact of declining popularity on the bottom line and will that motivate the powers to do something about it?

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTR seems to think baseball is still on the upswing financially, judging by their predictions for Harper and Machado:

 

Harper 14 years 420 million

Machado 13 years 390 million

[moonslav59]

Not only are owners making huge money off baseball, the value of their teams, when they go to sell them, are extremely higher than when they bought them. That gives them the sense that they can spend to win.

 

Then, you might have some owners who don't care if their team loses money, they just want the status as a winning owner in the sports world.

[Jasonbay44]

I think there needs to be a DH in both leagues, the fact we have different rules for two different leagues is incredibly stupid, especially with inter-league happening year round. Pitchers aren't paid for their hitting, and it just risks injuries. I know a lot of NL purists don't wan this to happen, but I guarantee if we asked the Nationals, Dodgers, Cubs and etc, they don't want Scherzer, Kershaw, Lester and etc hitting or running the bases. Its just absurd how different the rules are in two leagues, playing the same game, that consistently play each other. Perfect example, E-Rod in the World Series, I don't think this dude has ever run the bases before.

 

Robot umps need to be a thing, if the MLB is going to insist on keeping incompetent idiots like Angel Hernandez and not only employing them, but letting them call PLAYOFF Games, it is a huge issue. He single handily probably added 30 minutes to that ALDS game against the Yankees by messing up calls at 1B and putting us all through the replay ********.

 

But obviously, the biggest issue is time. If you were to sit down and watch the Red Sox in the world series this year, you would need about 4 hours, and the games don't start till 8 pm. I think it is pretty unrealistic to get a younger generation interested in 4 hours of watching a game that lasts until after midnight, especially on school nights during the fall, or even in the summer, with the ridiculous amounts of activities kids have between camps/practices/lessons, etc.

 

Also, I don't think the MLB does a good enough job of marketing its true star players. The NBA and NFL do a much better job of this. You probably cant find a person in America male or female who doesn't know who Lebron and Tom Brady are, but I know a ridiculous amount of non baseball fans who've never even heard of Mookie Betts or Mike Trout.

[Kimmi]

I am wondering how baseball compares to the other major sports in terms declining popularity/viewership. I think some of it is the sign of our times, in particular, the instant gratification and instant feedback that our younger generation seems to be used to in these technology prevalent times.

 

Are long time, older fans being turned off from the game, or is it more that the sport is not picking up "new fans".

 

IMO, the sport is beautiful and extremely entertaining the way it is. I think the analytics have enhanced the enjoyment and understanding of the sport. I don't like the 2 different rules in the different leagues, and I'm not particularly a fan of the shift, but I don't think those things are ruining baseball. Will robot umps really increase viewership?

 

Making some changes to the sport, as Bell listed above, might help some. But I don't think that is really going to solve the problem, whatever the problem seems to be. Basically, I think that parents, role models, etc. need to instill a love for the game into their children like my parents did with me and my brothers when we were growing up.

[Kimmi]

One thing that is a problem is that it is just too darn expensive to take a family of four out to the ballpark for a major league game. It's not something I can afford to do on a regular basis. That said, there's always minor league games, which are reasonably priced.

[Youk Of The Nation]

2) The game has become dominated by stat geeks and computer analysts. They decide who the best players are, who the best players for the money are, and how to win more games.

 

 

Trying to win more games?! Unacceptable! What kind of monsters are these people?

[Northern Star]

NL needs the DH, which means longer games, which means a pitching clock.

 

I get sick of the length of some ABs with countless foul offs. Don't really want to tinker with the format of an AB though. That would be a drastic change to the game. I wouldn't be 100% against reducing the game length to seven innings, which obviously would be a huge change. I'm not saying I'm 100% for it, either.

 

Way too many stats. The media likes to tell us stuff like this was the first time there have been champagne celebrations in the opposing team's locker room on back to back days. Who gives a s***?

 

The real problem regards the length of games is that baseball was invented before tv and smartphones. Those two things have shortened our collective attention spans.

 

Also, MLB needs to market their stars better. No one cares about them.

[redsoxrules]

MLBTR seems to think baseball is still on the upswing financially, judging by their predictions for Harper and Machado:

 

Harper 14 years 420 million

Machado 13 years 390 million

 

 

I seriously do not get the love for Harper.

Aside from his 2015 season he's been nothing spectacular. Trout is way better and is not even getting close to that money.

 

I don't even see how he can get 250M

[redsoxrules]

But yes baseball is in trouble.

If the red sox were not in the playoffs I'd have zero interest to watch any post season games. Games were constantly passed 4 hours. Too many time called, mound visits. They implemented mound visits but half of them don't count so it's useless. Switching the pitcher for every batter because of all the analytics. Shifts on players. Its beyond ridiculous. Players in the outfield have little cards that tells them were to play.

 

I honestly wouldn't mind robo umps. It would eliminate the arguing and make the game go faster. They should also eliminate shift. The first basement and second basement should stay on their side and same with the 3rd basement and shortstop. Otherwise they are no longer playing their positions.

[Kimmi]

I think the biggest issue with the length of the game is the commercial breaks. The length of the breaks during the postseason games was beyond ridiculous. I know that MLB and the networks are not going to get rid of their commercials, but that is the biggest culprit.

 

The pitching changes in the later innings (which leads to more commercial breaks) is another big culprit. I read a suggestion somewhere to require all relievers to pitch to a minimum of 3 batters or maybe a minimum pitch count of 30 pitches, whichever comes first, unless there is an injury. I would be on board with that rule.

 

I also like the suggestion that defenders have to play withing certain zones, like the SS has to play on the left side of 2nd base.

[Bellhorn04]

But yes baseball is in trouble.

If the red sox were not in the playoffs I'd have zero interest to watch any post season games. Games were constantly passed 4 hours. Too many time called, mound visits. They implemented mound visits but half of them don't count so it's useless. Switching the pitcher for every batter because of all the analytics. Shifts on players. Its beyond ridiculous. Players in the outfield have little cards that tells them were to play.

 

We had that moment this year when Mookie Betts pulled out and flashed his 'cheat card' after making a catch. A lot of folks found this funny/entertaining.

 

Personally it made me a little queasy. No reflection on Mookie, of course. Just the fact that fielders now need these cards to know where to position themselves on every play.

[redsoxrules]

I think the biggest issue with the length of the game is the commercial breaks. The length of the breaks during the postseason games was beyond ridiculous. I know that MLB and the networks are not going to get rid of their commercials, but that is the biggest culprit.

 

The pitching changes in the later innings (which leads to more commercial breaks) is another big culprit. I read a suggestion somewhere to require all relievers to pitch to a minimum of 3 batters or maybe a minimum pitch count of 30 pitches, whichever comes first, unless there is an injury. I would be on board with that rule.

 

I also like the suggestion that defenders have to play withing certain zones, like the SS has to play on the left side of 2nd base.

 

I definitely like the reliever idea. Never thought of that one

[Bellhorn04]

There's another item that I forgot to list: the growing paranoia about sign-stealing, forcing teams to have multiple sets of signs and changing them frequently.

 

One unsightly by-product of this is all the instances of wild pitches and passed balls resulting from catchers getting crossed up on the signs.

[notin]

 

Also, I don't think the MLB does a good enough job of marketing its true star players. The NBA and NFL do a much better job of this. You probably cant find a person in America male or female who doesn't know who Lebron and Tom Brady are, but I know a ridiculous amount of non baseball fans who've never even heard of Mookie Betts or Mike Trout.

 

But a lot of people have heard of Bryce Harper, who is well on his way to being the most famous baseball player since Reggie Jackson...

[notin]

NL needs the DH, which means longer games, which means a pitching clock.

 

I get sick of the length of some ABs with countless foul offs. Don't really want to tinker with the format of an AB though. That would be a drastic change to the game. I wouldn't be 100% against reducing the game length to seven innings, which obviously would be a huge change. I'm not saying I'm 100% for it, either.

 

Way too many stats. The media likes to tell us stuff like this was the first time there have been champagne celebrations in the opposing team's locker room on back to back days. Who gives a s***?

 

The real problem regards the length of games is that baseball was invented before tv and smartphones. Those two things have shortened our collective attention spans.

 

Also, MLB needs to market their stars better. No one cares about them.

 

1) DH needs to be ubiquitous, Step up, NL,

 

2) There are rules in the rulebook for how long a pitcher can hold the ball between pitches. These need to be enforced.

 

3) Don't sweat the shift. I'd rather see a hitter try to beat the shift than watch an annoying LOOGY come in to face one batter.

 

4) Baseball hs become heavily dependent on analytics and statistics, but why do opponents of this pretend this is unique to baseball? Other sports have copied it, but done so poorly. For example, the NBA was seeing a rise in analytics from fans and bloggers, and then teams hired these guys too quickly to get ahead of the opponent, and didn't allow for them to actually collaborate and work out the flaws in their systems. At least MLB did it right.

 

5) Yes, there are a lot of home run dependent offenses. But this could also be a fad. In the 1980's, the game was heavily dependent on stolen bases, which were suddenly the secret offensive weapon. Fad. Gone. The early 2000's saw teams relying heavily on walks. Not so any more. These things do change, despite everyone saying "No this is different" every time.

[Kimmi]

We had that moment this year when Mookie Betts pulled out and flashed his 'cheat card' after making a catch. A lot of folks found this funny/entertaining.

 

Personally it made me a little queasy. No reflection on Mookie, of course. Just the fact that fielders now need these cards to know where to position themselves on every play.

 

I found this moment absolutely awesome. For me, it's one of the many highlights of the season.

 

It's not that he flashed the card, per se. It's that Mookie was waaaayyy out of position for a right fielder, and McCann hit the ball right to him. I don't think he even had to take a step. It's like the waving of the card was symbolic of Mookie probably being hesitant about playing that far towards center field, but then acknowledging the mantra, "In Cora We Trust".

[Bellhorn04]

I found this moment absolutely awesome. For me, it's one of the many highlights of the season.

 

It's not that he flashed the card, per se. It's that Mookie was waaaayyy out of position for a right fielder, and McCann hit the ball right to him. I don't think he even had to take a step. It's like the waving of the card was symbolic of Mookie probably being hesitant about playing that far towards center field, but then acknowledging the mantra, "In Cora We Trust".

 

There you go. We all have our different reactions.

 

I don't really know if analytics will be good or bad for the game over the long run. Time will tell.

[Northern Star]

There you go. We all have our different reactions.

 

I don't really know if analytics will be good or bad for the game over the long run. Time will tell.

 

Aren't there analytics on the analytics?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm staggered by the predictions of $420 million for Harper and $390 million for Machado. If Harper gets that much it will smash the record currently held by Stanton by $95 million. How can baseball survive that kind of inflation? And both of these guys carry some significant question marks. They're not Mike Trout.

[Bellhorn04]

Aren't there analytics on the analytics?

 

I think the closest thing to analytics on analytics would be a poll on positive or negative response.

[redsoxrules]

I'm staggered by the predictions of $420 million for Harper and $390 million for Machado. If Harper gets that much it will smash the record currently held by Stanton by $95 million. How can baseball survive that kind of inflation? And both of these guys carry some significant question marks. They're not Mike Trout.

 

Yeah I agree. I've said many times that Harper ain't nothing special. Aside from his one season that he had a 9 WAR hes been around 4 for his other seasons.

 

I do not get the love for this guy. I also seen a graph that he was one of the worst base runners in the game this past season.

[moonslav59]

I'm staggered by the predictions of $420 million for Harper and $390 million for Machado. If Harper gets that much it will smash the record currently held by Stanton by $95 million. How can baseball survive that kind of inflation? And both of these guys carry some significant question marks. They're not Mike Trout.

 

Owners make untold millions through TV, concessions, memorabilia and the gate, but perhaps most of all, they make a tremendous profit when they sell their teams.

 

I'm never surprised by how much salaries are increasing. Look at what Oprah makes. Look at what actors and musicians make. Entertainment is big business.

[Bellhorn04]

Owners make untold millions through TV, concessions, memorabilia and the gate, but perhaps most of all, they make a tremendous profit when they sell their teams.

 

I'm never surprised by how much salaries are increasing. Look at what Oprah makes. Look at what actors and musicians make. Entertainment is big business.

 

I understand. But there has to be some correlation between the inflows and the outflows, and if attendance and TV viewership are going down, the inflows have to go down at some point.

 

I thought that the modest increases in the tax threshold in the new CBA were an indicator that salaries were going to level off at least.

[moonslav59]

I understand. But there has to be some correlation between the inflows and the outflows, and if attendance and TV viewership are going down, the inflows have to go down at some point.

 

I thought that the modest increases in the tax threshold in the new CBA were an indicator that salaries were going to level off at least.

 

Well, the threshold and salaries are still going up.

 

Maybe owners are making more off jerseys and memorabilia than before.

 

TV contracts have been going up. I haven't noticed anyone getting less with new deals.

 

Team values are sky-rocketing.

 

Attendance and viewership are not causing any of these to go down-- so far.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the threshold and salaries are still going up.

 

The threshold goes from 189 in 2016 to 210 in 2021. That's 11.1% over 5 years, or about 2% compounded annually. That's tiny, really. And of course the penalties are steeper.

[Northern Star]

I always looked at a player's value from the salary compared to onfield production, and criticized deals like Stanton, because there's a ceiling to potential production. I don't think I considered the other factors like merchandise, pulling fans into seats on star value alone. I'm sure teams have their own equations that they use to determine how much they value players internally, that then informs their bids to free agents.

[moonslav59]

The threshold goes from 189 in 2016 to 210 in 2021. That's 11.1% over 5 years, or about 2% compounded annually. That's tiny, really. And of course the penalties are steeper.

 

I know it's not much, but if baseball was losing money, shouldn't it be going down?

[Bellhorn04]

I know it's not much, but if baseball was losing money, shouldn't it be going down?

 

Clearly it's not losing money. These tiny increases are more indicative of things leveling off, stabilizing.

[moonslav59]

Clearly it's not losing money. These tiny increases are more indicative of things leveling off, stabilizing.

 

Hasn't it always been increasing this slowly? (Granted, it hasn't been around for too long.)

 

The only blip on the near meteoric rise of player's salaries over the years, is when the owners got caught colluding and last winter, wen several of the highest spending teams chose to reset the tax during the same winter.

 

This winter will be a good gauge on the trend. All the big players will be in spend mode. Even the Sox may spend $25-30M or more (per year).