A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

I think Chavis will go back to Pawtucket, once Moreland is OK. He needs his at bats, and figure out his mistakes, up at the Majors. Once they have the book on you, they will not stop pitching you that way up in the Majors.

Gave us a shot in the arm, but now its time not to hurt his progress too much, especially when your chasing for a division.

 

 

Kind of a shame, as he had made himself a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year with his early explosion. The best competition for the award is probably Brandon Lowe, who is also struggling of late.

 

Of course a lot of that was before VGJ came up. (VGJ said a few good words about how impressed he was with Chavis, too, and was the first I saw to actually say Chavis could be a legitimate ROY candidate.)

[mvp 78]

Kind of a shame, as he had made himself a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year with his early explosion. The best competition for the award is probably Brandon Lowe, who is also struggling of late.

 

Of course a lot of that was before VGJ came up. (VGJ said a few good words about how impressed he was with Chavis, too, and was the first I saw to actually say Chavis could be a legitimate ROY candidate.)

 

VGJ is currently a negative oWAR player, unlike Chavis.

[notin]

VGJ is currently a negative oWAR player, unlike Chavis.

 

 

Think that’s an indication going forward? Or do you think he can bridge that gap in the next 100 games?

 

If it was up to me, I’d demote Weber (or Shawaryn as he would not need to be DFAd) and keep Chavis. The only way I demote Chavis is if Moreland comes back before Saturday’s double header.

 

Personally I don’t think Weber is a major leaguer and should easily clear waivers...

[mvp 78]

Think that’s an indication going forward? Or do you think he can bridge that gap in the next 100 games?

 

If it was up to me, I’d demote Weber (or Shawaryn as he would not need to be DFAd) and keep Chavis. The only way I demote Chavis is if Moreland comes back before Saturday’s double header.

 

Personally I don’t think Weber is a major leaguer and should easily clear waivers...

 

You said he was a strong candidate for ROY before Vladimir Jr came up. I was just pointing out that Chavis' numbers are still better at this point, so it's not like Vlad's promotion automatically excluded Chavis from the ROY conversation.

[OH FOY]

VGJ is currently a negative oWAR player, unlike Chavis.

 

Give it time. He's struggling against a bad team, lets see how he does against a good pitching team like Tampa. 4 games we'll see.

[Slasher9]

the only way Chavis is going to make the adjustments is by getting the AB's. if he isn't going to get them when MM/Pearce come back and if Holt continues hot then maybe Chavis should be sent down? now it's not just the high FB but breaking stuff getting him out too. color me concerned...

[OH FOY]

Agree want Chavis to get his at bats, but cant hurt the Parent club figuring out your weakness. He's got plenty of time to come back.

[mvp 78]

the only way Chavis is going to make the adjustments is by getting the AB's. if he isn't going to get them when MM/Pearce come back and if Holt continues hot then maybe Chavis should be sent down? now it's not just the high FB but breaking stuff getting him out too. color me concerned...

 

I've never been a big believer in him, but he definitely needs to be given the opportunity to make the adjustments.

[OH FOY]

You rather have Chavis then VGJ? Interesting.

[OH FOY]

All I'm saying sometimes, its good for a kid, to say you need some work. Not for the year, just a kick in the ass, that it's not that easy in the Majors. Couple of weeks, see if he works on his weakness.

For all the notes he writes he should write down stay off the high heat. Maybe he does, and that's what concerns me.

[mvp 78]

You rather have Chavis then VGJ? Interesting.

 

I'm not sure anyone is making that argument.

[notin]

the only way Chavis is going to make the adjustments is by getting the AB's. if he isn't going to get them when MM/Pearce come back and if Holt continues hot then maybe Chavis should be sent down? now it's not just the high FB but breaking stuff getting him out too. color me concerned...

 

I wouldn’t demote Chavis to accommodate Holt.

 

Let Chavis play and make his adjustments. Demote him if a doubleheader forces a need for a bigger pitching staff short term. But that’s it...

[mvp 78]

I wouldn’t demote Chavis to accommodate Holt.

 

Let Chavis play and make his adjustments. Demote him if a doubleheader forces a need for a bigger pitching staff short term. But that’s it...

 

Agreed. Holt will still get AB's because he's the team's utility knife. Chavis should still be able to find time at 2b and 1b for a while.

[Maxbialystock]

I've never been a big believer in him, but he definitely needs to be given the opportunity to make the adjustments.

 

Well, you're smarter than I am because I went strictly on what I saw, not his history. jacksonianmarch predicted this current slide.

 

The pitchers right now definitely have the upper hand, but I agree with you he should have the opportunity to make adjustments. I wouldn't trust him at SS, but the guy is a decent 3b, 2b, and 1b--despite the fact that he had almost never played 2b. Plus he has power.

[mvp 78]

Well, you're smarter than I am because I went strictly on what I saw, not his history. jacksonianmarch predicted this current slide.

 

The pitchers right now definitely have the upper hand, but I agree with you he should have the opportunity to make adjustments. I wouldn't trust him at SS, but the guy is a decent 3b, 2b, and 1b--despite the fact that he had almost never played 2b. Plus he has power.

 

He is NOT decent at 3b. They moved him off the position because he's a statue with bad footwork.

 

Chavis just sells out for power. He has it in droves, but many people have questioned what his numbers would look like once the book got out on him. I wasn't alone on an island in this aspect. It was even mentioned by Eck and Remy on various broadcasts.

[Slasher9]

perhaps the dehydrochlormethyltestosterone is fully leaving his system.....

[mvp 78]

perhaps the dehydrochlormethyltestosterone is fully leaving his system.....

 

Nah, we'd see that if he developed warning track power. He still mashes, just can't make contact.

[harmony]

Kind of a shame, as he had made himself a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year with his early explosion. The best competition for the award is probably Brandon Lowe, who is also struggling of late.

 

Of course a lot of that was before VGJ came up. (VGJ said a few good words about how impressed he was with Chavis, too, and was the first I saw to actually say Chavis could be a legitimate ROY candidate.)

Seattle rookie Daniel Vogelbach has nearly doubled the fWAR of Michael Chavis (in 56 games to Chavis' 40 games):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=2&team=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

It's hard to ignore Vogelbach's wRC+ of 149.

[mvp 78]

Seattle rookie Daniel Vogelbach has nearly doubled the fWAR of Michael Chavis (in 56 games to Chavis' 40 games):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=2&team=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

It's hard to ignore Vogelbach's wRC+ of 149.

 

You need to subtract 1 fWAR for playing on the West Coast.

[notin]

You need to subtract 1 fWAR for playing on the West Coast.

 

 

But add 0.5 back in for having the name “Vogelbach”...

[Slasher9]

Nah, we'd see that if he developed warning track power. He still mashes, just can't make contact.

 

fair.

[mvp 78]

fair.

 

He needed to inject it straight into his eyeballs.

[harmony]

You need to subtract 1 fWAR for playing on the West Coast.

Or subtract 1 fWAR for playing in a hitter's ballpark in a hitter-friendly division.

 

And add appropriate fWAR for playing in a pitcher's ballpark in a pitcher-friendly division.

[mvp 78]

Or subtract 1 fWAR for playing in a hitter's ballpark in a hitter-friendly division.

 

And add appropriate fWAR for playing in a pitcher's ballpark in a pitcher-friendly division.

 

East Coast bias doesn't care about pitcher friendly arguments. East Coast bias does care about cool names though.

 

+1 point to notin. -1 point to harmony.

[notin]

Or subtract 1 fWAR for playing in a hitter's ballpark in a hitter-friendly division.

 

And add appropriate fWAR for playing in a pitcher's ballpark in a pitcher-friendly division.

 

 

I believe that is already calculated into fWAR...

[moonslav59]

I think Chavis will go back to Pawtucket, once Moreland is OK. He needs his at bats, and figure out his mistakes, up at the Majors. Once they have the book on you, they will not stop pitching you that way up in the Majors.

Gave us a shot in the arm, but now its time not to hurt his progress too much, especially when your chasing for a division.

Last 7 games .143

Last 15 .200

Last 30 .240

Going in the wrong direction. Main thing he went from a strikeout every 3 at bats, to a strikeout for every 2 at bats, in last 15 games.

 

I'd give him a little more time, before demoting him.

 

The roster problem is tough, since we probably want to keep 13 pitchers through this 17 games in 16 day stretch, and Moreland will be back before that stretch ends.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. Holt will still get AB's because he's the team's utility knife. Chavis should still be able to find time at 2b and 1b for a while.

 

Here's the problem:

 

We need 13 pitchers, because we have a doubleheader coming up soon and have 17 games in a 16 day stretch.

 

Assuming we don't send a pitcher down when Moreland returns, sending down Travis is the no-brainer. The issue arises when Pearce is ready to return. Who goes?

 

Holt can refuse assignment to AAA and is one of our hottest hitters.

 

Nunez is out of options and beginning to heat up.

 

Maybe Peatce doesn't return before these 16 days are done, but if he does, we have a serious choice to make ob Chavis, Holt, Nunez or Pearce.

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Here's the problem:

 

We need 13 pitchers, because we have a doubleheader coming up soon and have 17 games in a 16 day stretch.

 

Assuming we don't send a pitcher down when Moreland returns, sending down Travis is the no-brainer. The issue arises when Pearce is ready to return. Who goes?

 

Holt can refuse assignment to AAA and is one of our hottest hitters.

 

Nunez is out of options and beginning to heat up.

 

Maybe Peatce doesn't return before these 16 days are done, but if he does, we have a serious choice to make ob Chavis, Holt, Nunez or Pearce.

 

 

 

 

I believe we're talking about infielders. My six would be: Bogie, Devers, Holt, Nunez, Moreland, and Chavis. I worry about Chavis's hitting now, but he can play 1b, 2b, and 3b, and Pearce can't and isn't hitting either. Also agree with you and Cora on 13 pitchers, which have basically been the case all season long.

[moonslav59]

I believe we're talking about infielders. My six would be: Bogie, Devers, Holt, Nunez, Moreland, and Chavis. I worry about Chavis's hitting now, but he can play 1b, 2b, and 3b, and Pearce can't and isn't hitting either. Also agree with you and Cora on 13 pitchers, which have basically been the case all season long.

 

So, this means you DFA or trade Pearce?

[mvp 78]

Nice to see Nunie coming around.

 

@redsoxstats

 

That last Nunez ball wasn't tracked, but was smoked. Lets go ahead and give him 100+ mph exit velocities in the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th today, with 3 singles.