A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dgalehouse]

But your doubts are based on what? A prejudice against analytics? FWIW, Cora strongly embraces them and apparently by choice. And he does so because he believes they work, largely due to his experiences in Houston and Boston.

 

And really, managers using available analytics is something with a looong history in MLB. The only thing that changes are the analytics they use. That and we have several websites that tell the public data and information that we didn’t have access to when Earl Weaver was managing...

 

Two possible scenarios: One . After a hard day at Fenway , Alex Cora gets home , sits in his easy chair and reads from his favorite analytics handbook. He notices where it says that your best hitter should bat second because " studies have shown " that is ideal . He says to his wife , " Gee , I had it all wrong last year with Mookie hitting leadoff , even though it worked to perfection , everyone was happy and we won 119 games . " " I just wish I knew as much about baseball as Bill James does . Mookie will now bat second . " Scenario two . Cora arrives early at Fenway , goes to his office and notices a memo on his desk . It says that Harold and Ferdy , the Nerdwell brothers , would like to see you at your convenience. When they meet later , the analytic geeks tell him that " studies have shown that your best hitter should bat second , and Mr. Dombrowski agrees ". Alex frowns , but says " okay , Mookie will now bat second. Anything else boys ? " They reply " That's all for now . Don't forget to rest J.D. and Xander tonight . "

[Slasher9]

if those are the only 2 choices i would go with #1.

[Bellhorn04]

Two possible scenarios: One . After a hard day at Fenway , Alex Cora gets home , sits in his easy chair and reads from his favorite analytics handbook. He notices where it says that your best hitter should bat second because " studies have shown " that is ideal . He says to his wife , " Gee , I had it all wrong last year with Mookie hitting leadoff , even though it worked to perfection , everyone was happy and we won 119 games . " " I just wish I knew as much about baseball as Bill James does . Mookie will now bat second . " Scenario two . Cora arrives early at Fenway , goes to his office and notices a memo on his desk . It says that Harold and Ferdy , the Nerdwell brothers , would like to see you at your convenience. When they meet later , the analytic geeks tell him that " studies have shown that your best hitter should bat second , and Mr. Dombrowski agrees ". Alex frowns , but says " okay , Mookie will now bat second. Anything else boys ? " They reply " That's all for now . Don't forget to rest J.D. and Xander tonight . "

 

Cora thought that Mookie would get more RBI opportunities batting second. That's pretty simple, really.

 

Mookie might have a psychological thing where he feels better hitting first, though.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie is hitting .133 at leadoff this year (8 game sample) and .315 batting second.

[dgalehouse]

Mookie is hitting .133 at leadoff this year (8 game sample) and .315 batting second.

 

Eight game sample ? Great . There is , and always has been , a certain prestige to batting leadoff . And why change something that was working so well ? It is not a well kept secret that analytics people are " strongly suggesting " some things to MLB managers these days . The batting order is not all that important, but it is an example of the situation. I really don't know if that is the case here with Cora , but it could well be . It almost certainly is elsewhere in MLB.

[kenmeister]

I'm still trying to figure out how we blew last night's game . And I watched every pitch . Two thoughts : 1 - Alex Cora needs to tell the analytic geeks ," I'm the manager of this nine . Mookie will hit leadoff. That is best for this team . " 2 - Those who say they are not concerned about the bullpen are deluding themselves.

 

Strikeouts, to me, are not as great an indicator of how a pitcher is doing as WHIP is. Gotta keep baserunners off the bases. How you get them out is somewhat irrelevant.

 

On the flip side, 3 home runs sound impressive, but having men on base when you hit a home run is the key. Still too many cold bats. Beni and Mookie a combined 0 for 11, Pearce continues to be a black hole, and Leon was also 0 for 3. Devers had a hit, but also left 5 men on base. Beni left 4. Nunez and Leon 3 a piece.

[notin]

Two possible scenarios: One . After a hard day at Fenway , Alex Cora gets home , sits in his easy chair and reads from his favorite analytics handbook. He notices where it says that your best hitter should bat second because " studies have shown " that is ideal . He says to his wife , " Gee , I had it all wrong last year with Mookie hitting leadoff , even though it worked to perfection , everyone was happy and we won 119 games . " " I just wish I knew as much about baseball as Bill James does . Mookie will now bat second . " Scenario two . Cora arrives early at Fenway , goes to his office and notices a memo on his desk . It says that Harold and Ferdy , the Nerdwell brothers , would like to see you at your convenience. When they meet later , the analytic geeks tell him that " studies have shown that your best hitter should bat second , and Mr. Dombrowski agrees ". Alex frowns , but says " okay , Mookie will now bat second. Anything else boys ? " They reply " That's all for now . Don't forget to rest J.D. and Xander tonight . "

 

 

Or a third possibility - Cora decides he wanted Mookie batting second because Benintendi is on base a lot and he figured it was a good way to capitalize on it. Why is everything such a big conspiracy against your little league coach in your eyes?

[dgalehouse]

Strikeouts, to me, are not as great an indicator of how a pitcher is doing as WHIP is. Gotta keep baserunners off the bases. How you get them out is somewhat irrelevant.

 

On the flip side, 3 home runs sound impressive, but having men on base when you hit a home run is the key. Still too many cold bats. Beni and Mookie a combined 0 for 11, Pearce continues to be a black hole, and Leon was also 0 for 3. Devers had a hit, but also left 5 men on base. Beni left 4. Nunez and Leon 3 a piece.

 

Sale was absolutely brilliant last night . No hit stuff. I will say that strikeouts are becoming less impressive to me now . Pretty sure that MLB will set a new record for strikeouts this season . It is getting ridiculous. Guys are up there hacking at anything. No plate discipline or pitch recognition to speak of .

[notin]

Eight game sample ? Great . There is , and always has been , a certain prestige to batting leadoff

 

Is there really? So Billy Hamilton was a more prestigious player than Joey Votto for a while there.

 

By that logic, hasn’t there always been a certain prestige to batting fourth? The spot we still call “clean up”. Should the Sox drop Mookie down in the order?

[dgalehouse]

Or a third possibility - Cora decides he wanted Mookie batting second because Benintendi is on base a lot and he figured it was a good way to capitalize on it. Why is everything such a big conspiracy against your little league coach in your eyes?

 

My Little League coach , Mister Sherman , was the smartest baseball man ever . Taught me everything.

[cp176]

So conjure me this one - I have had to listen for 2 years now why the number 3 spot in the lineup was arguably one of the worst places to put one of if not your best hitter. Hmmm - let's see - How long has it been now that Martinez has anchored that spot this year? Do the all things analytics folk think that JD likely told Cora that that is where he wanted to hit. Come on - For the record, I love seeing him in that spot. Maybe Cora represents more of a good blend of someone who isn't afraid to use all things analytical but at the same has some common sense.

[dgalehouse]

Is there really? So Billy Hamilton was a more prestigious player than Joey Votto for a while there.

 

By that logic, hasn’t there always been a certain prestige to batting fourth? The spot we still call “clean up”. Should the Sox drop Mookie down in the order?

 

Of course there is prestige in batting cleanup . There can be more than one prestige spot .

[dgalehouse]

Is there really? So Billy Hamilton was a more prestigious player than Joey Votto for a while there.

 

By that logic, hasn’t there always been a certain prestige to batting fourth? The spot we still call “clean up”. Should the Sox drop Mookie down in the order?[/QUOT Do you or do you not agree that there is a certain prestige to batting leadoff ?

[notin]

Is there really? So Billy Hamilton was a more prestigious player than Joey Votto for a while there.

 

By that logic, hasn’t there always been a certain prestige to batting fourth? The spot we still call “clean up”. Should the Sox drop Mookie down in the order?[/QUOT Do you or do you not agree that there is a certain prestige to batting leadoff ?

 

 

Honestly I have no idea. Some players might feel there is, but some also probably don’t care. I won’t even pretend I know the split. Bottom line, I’m not going to attach any sweeping generalizations to situations I know nothing about. And whether I think there is from my viewpoint as a fan is completely irrelevant...

[notin]

Is there really? So Billy Hamilton was a more prestigious player than Joey Votto for a while there.

 

By that logic, hasn’t there always been a certain prestige to batting fourth? The spot we still call “clean up”. Should the Sox drop Mookie down in the order?[/QUOT Do you or do you not agree that there is a certain prestige to batting leadoff ?

 

 

Let me ask you two simple questions

 

1. Why is there a certain prestige in batting leadoff?

 

2. If the metrics and strategy say bat your best hitter second, doesn’t that mean there is a certain prestige in batting second?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if I would call it a prestige in batting leadoff. There's a common perception based on history that the leadoff hitter is a guy with some speed and an ability to get on base - the 'table-setter'.

[mvp 78]

I don't know if I would call it a prestige in batting leadoff. There's a common perception based on history that the leadoff hitter is a guy with some speed and an ability to get on base - the 'table-setter'.

 

I can think of great leadoff hitters, but it's hard to remember great #2 hitters.

[Bellhorn04]

I can think of great leadoff hitters, but it's hard to remember great #2 hitters.

 

Pedroia

[moonslav59]

Pedroia

 

Too many DPs.

 

Too slow in later years.

 

He was great there for a while, though.

[moonslav59]

I can think of great leadoff hitters, but it's hard to remember great #2 hitters.

 

I'd like to see....

 

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Bogey

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Moreland-Chavis

7. Chavis-Pearce

8. JBJ

9. Vaz-Leon

[notin]

I can think of great leadoff hitters, but it's hard to remember great #2 hitters.

 

 

Roberto Alomar, Mike Trout.

 

The thing is, most of the best 2-spot hitters are probably players fans associate with hitting leadoff...

[notin]

I don't know if I would call it a prestige in batting leadoff. There's a common perception based on history that the leadoff hitter is a guy with some speed and an ability to get on base - the 'table-setter'.

 

 

But is there a certain “prestige” with batting leadoff that would give a player a fit if he suddenly found himself batting second?

[Bellhorn04]

Too many DPs.

 

Too slow in later years.

 

He was great there for a while, though.

 

Well yes, I was talking about him in his prime.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia

 

Can you name them from non-Sox teams though?

 

Leadoff: Lofton, Raines, Rickey

 

2nd: ???

 

It's so prestigious that it takes me a while to remember if it has a nickname or not.

[notin]

Can you name them from non-Sox teams though?

 

Leadoff: Lofton, Raines, Rickey

 

2nd: ???

 

It's so prestigious that it takes me a while to remember if it has a nickname or not.

 

Roberto Alomar and Trout are great 2-spot hitters

[mvp 78]

Roberto Alomar, Mike Trout.

 

The thing is, most of the best 2-spot hitters are probably players fans associate with hitting leadoff...

 

Trout has only spent about half his career hitting there.

 

Alomar had more games hitting leadoff than 2nd.

[Bellhorn04]

But is there a certain “prestige” with batting leadoff that would give a player a fit if he suddenly found himself batting second?

 

I would say no. Certainly not now.

 

Once upon a time you might say there was some mystique attached to the great leadoff hitters and base stealers like Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson.

[Bellhorn04]

Can you name them from non-Sox teams though?

 

Leadoff: Lofton, Raines, Rickey

 

2nd: ???

 

It's so prestigious that it takes me a while to remember if it has a nickname or not.

 

I would agree that it's hard to name a lot of great #2 hitters.

 

On the other hand, were Manny and Papi great #3 hitters or great #4 hitters?

 

The fact is they swapped those spots quite a bit.

 

Just like JDM has been doing while he's been with us.

[notin]

Trout has only spent about half his career hitting there.

 

Alomar had more games hitting leadoff than 2nd.

 

 

Roberto Alomar has over twice as many plate appearances batting second than he does leading off. He even has more plate appearances batting third than he does leading off.

 

Trout has more plate appearances batting second than anywhere else. And over three times as many batting second as he does leading off.

[notin]

I would say no. Certainly not now.

 

Once upon a time you might say there was some mystique attached to the great leadoff hitters and base stealers like Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson.

 

 

I can agree with that.

 

Especially now. Players are aware that teams like to use the 2-spot for their best hitters. So if anything, it’s an ego boost and probably carries some prestige.

 

To think Betts wants to bat leadoff because of some alleged “prestige” attached to that batting order spot is laughable. Mookie has shown us how he wants his prestige. He wants it negotiated into a long term deal and measurable in USD...