A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

What is the upside and value of Pearce . Travis and Josh Smith? All could be gone by the trade deadline, DFA'ed not for any trade value. Nunez at least covers multiple positions, and Holt's ability to be on the field is always at question. Wright is as likely to suck as be of any use come July. Weber was an odd one last night but did get 4 innings eaten with no further damage, but would hate to see that slop needed in Yankee Stadium. Maybe he's the long mop up relief. Thornburg and Brewer probably have jobs through the season just because no one is behind them .

 

If the Sox are in serious contention come mid to late July, DD will need to be very proactive but has next to no ammo for his trade gun. Come 2020 ST, about 7 or 8 of the 11 total names listed will be " not present".

 

I like Pearce the most on this list, because we saw his "upside," but he made the list because he's out of options, and we may need to make room for Pedey and Holt, soon.

 

We could cut Travis right now, and I wouldn't even blink- same with Shepherd & Smith.

[devildavid]

No . It's not that simple . What I am saying is that you get what you pay for . Whether it's a left fielder or a relief pitcher . Obviously , a team has a budget , and there are different pay scales at work . But if your plan is to go cheap on the bullpen , or any other area , you will probably not get quality . Just look at some of the bullpens in MLB today . They are terrible . Constant turnover .

 

Maybe if they raised the salary of all the bullpen pitchers they would pitch better. Problem solved.

[Larry Cook]

I like Pearce the most on this list, because we saw his "upside," but he made the list because he's out of options, and we may need to make room for Pedey and Holt, soon.

 

We could cut Travis right now, and I wouldn't even blink- same with Shepherd & Smith.

 

I watched pedrioa swing in his rehab start and he needs more time. The swing is not fluid and he favors the leg. I’d hate to lose a guy because we brought pedrioa back for a week until he broke down again. Best thing we could do is put him on the 60 day dL and move on. Revisit his situation in The offseason,

[moonslav59]

I watched pedrioa swing in his rehab start and he needs more time. The swing is not fluid and he favors the leg. I’d hate to lose a guy because we brought pedrioa back for a week until he broke down again. Best thing we could do is put him on the 60 day dL and move on. Revisit his situation in The offseason,

 

I thought Pedey should have started the season on the 60 day.

[Larry Cook]

I thought Pedey should have started the season on the 60 day.

 

Amen brother!

 

Why does management insist on rushing him back. Do they enjoy watching him break down every 20 at bats?

[notin]

Maybe if they raised the salary of all the bullpen pitchers they would pitch better. Problem solved.

 

The funny thing is, if you look at a lot of the relievers who got paid heavily this off season like Kelly and Robertson, they’ve been awful. Britton might be having his worst season, but he’s still doing ok. Ottavino - among the lowest paid of the bunch - has been stellar...

[moonslav59]

The funny thing is, if you look at a lot of the relievers who got paid heavily this off season like Kelly and Robertson, they’ve been awful. Britton might be having his worst season, but he’s still doing ok. Ottavino - among the lowest paid of the bunch - has been stellar...

 

It's a crap shoot. No wonder DD chose not to play a game where the odds are stacked against you.

[notin]

It's a crap shoot. No wonder DD chose not to play a game where the odds are stacked against you.

 

 

Spend tens of millions on crapshoot free agent relievers with good track records and high mileage or spend next to nothing on low mileage minor league free agents that have a career similar to Ryan Brasier?

[Bellhorn04]

Spend tens of millions on crapshoot free agent relievers with good track records and high mileage or spend next to nothing on low mileage minor league free agents that have a career similar to Ryan Brasier?

 

We'll see how it works out this year, I guess.

[notin]

We'll see how it works out this year, I guess.

 

 

I would have been ok using both methods. It’s not like there’s some rule where you have to do one or the other...

[jacksonianmarch]

You could go that route for your pen, but most of the time it backfires.

[Bellhorn04]

I would have been ok using both methods. It’s not like there’s some rule where you have to do one or the other...

 

Agreed. Glad we didn't re-sign Kelly though. One can only imagine the posts about that. MADSTORK would be in his glory.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. Glad we didn't re-sign Kelly though. One can only imagine the posts about that. MADSTORK would be in his glory.

 

That alone was reason enough not to sign Kelly.

[moonslav59]

FYI, some ex-Sox 2019 numbers:

 

OPS

.859 Moncada (7 HRs & 25 rbi)

.803 Sandoval

.689 Swihart (.692 counting his time with the Sox)

.678 Margot (was .675 last year)

.573 T Shaw

AAA

.641 M Dubon

 

ERA

1.00 Buttrey (18 IP and 1.06 WHIP)

1.41 Lester (32 IP & 1.03 WHIP)

2.48 J Beeks (29.0 & 1.18 WHIP)

2.75 F Montas (39.1 & 1.22 WHIP)

5.93 Pomeranz (30.1 IP & 1.62 WHIP)

10.33 Kelly (13.1 IP & 1.95 WHIP)

AAA

6.37 L Allen (29.2/1.52)

 

I'm not saying I wish we had these guys back.

 

(List is not every ex-Sox player.)

 

[dgalehouse]

I would still opt for quality relievers , as well as quality starters and position players . The problem with throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks , is that most of it just splatters and makes a mess .

[Bellhorn04]

I would still opt for quality relievers , as well as quality starters and position players . The problem with throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks , is that most of it just splatters and makes a mess .

 

It's easy to say after the fact who the 'quality relievers' are. It's not so easy to predict who they're going to be in the offseason.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure, if there is any data to support what I'm about to say, but it is hard to project which RP'ers will be good in winter. I think seeing how someone is doing up to July may be a better way at finding a RP'er that will help us end the season on a good note.

[Bellhorn04]

Here are some of the quality relievers a lot of us figured were on the Sox radar this offseason with ERA and WHIP:

 

Joe Kelly 10.13 1.95

Cody Allen 6.00 1.89

David Robertson 5.40 2.10

Andrew Miller 5.11 1.62

 

That's a whole heap of quality there...

[dgalehouse]

Here are some of the quality relievers a lot of us figured were on the Sox radar this offseason with ERA and WHIP:

 

Joe Kelly 10.13 1.95

Cody Allen 6.00 1.89

David Robertson 5.40 2.10

Andrew Miller 5.11 1.62

 

That's a whole heap of quality there...

 

You could just as easily pick out a few starting pitchers or position players who are not performing up to expectations so far .

[Bellhorn04]

You could just as easily pick out a few starting pitchers or position players who are not performing up to expectations so far .

 

Yes, but what we're talking about is the crop of free agent relievers that were available.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, but what we're talking about is the crop of free agent relievers that were available.

 

Robertson is 34 and has been hurt . The Yankees were smart to replace him with Ottavino . That is where judgement comes in . Miller was not good last year . And Cody Allen was awful last year . ( I do remember arguing against the Sox signing him ) So , it is not surprising that they are struggling. I don't think relievers are any more of a crap shoot than anyone else . Lots of mistakes are made all around. But it is hard to win without a good bullpen.

[Bellhorn04]

Robertson is 34 and has been hurt . The Yankees were smart to replace him with Ottavino . That is where judgement comes in . Miller was not good last year . And Cody Allen was awful last year . ( I do remember arguing against the Sox signing him ) So , it is not surprising that they are struggling. I don't think relievers are any more of a crap shoot than anyone else . Lots of mistakes are made all around. But it is hard to win without a good bullpen.

 

We have a decent bullpen at little cost. Looks to me like DD deserves some credit.

[moonslav59]

We have a decent bullpen at little cost. Looks to me like DD deserves some credit.

 

I agree, and he kept some budget space for a mid season deal or two.

[dgalehouse]

We have a decent bullpen at little cost. Looks to me like DD deserves some credit.

 

I agree . Our pen has been pretty good . Certainly better than most . Hope it continues. I do have concerns about matching up with the Yankee pen , which figures to happen plenty this season .

[Slasher9]

Robertson is 34 and has been hurt . The Yankees were smart to replace him with Ottavino . That is where judgement comes in . Miller was not good last year . And Cody Allen was awful last year . ( I do remember arguing against the Sox signing him ) So , it is not surprising that they are struggling. I don't think relievers are any more of a crap shoot than anyone else . Lots of mistakes are made all around. But it is hard to win without a good bullpen.

 

so the question that HFX asked remains....who are the "quality relievers" that were FA last offseason that you would have signed $$$?

[mvp 78]

so the question that HFX asked remains....who are the "quality relievers" that were FA last offseason that you would have signed $$$?

 

There is no one here named that.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no one here named that.

 

I don't mind being called that.

[dgalehouse]

so the question that HFX asked remains....who are the "quality relievers" that were FA last offseason that you would have signed $$$?

 

I don't know if he actually asked that . But I have said many times that my top choices would have been Kimbrel , Britton and / or Ottavino . Obviously, it's not my money . I don't think relievers are any more of a crap shoot than third basemen . It's just a myth that is repeated until people believe it. And just about every close game these days comes down to a battle of the bullpens. Ours has been pretty good so far .

[moonslav59]

I don't know if he actually asked that . But I have said many times that my top choices would have been Kimbrel , Britton and / or Ottavino . Obviously, it's not my money . I don't think relievers are any more of a crap shoot than third basemen . It's just a myth that is repeated until people believe it. And just about every close game these days comes down to a battle of the bullpens. Ours has been pretty good so far .

 

There are a few RP'ers that have been pretty consistent, but guys like Kelly and Cody Allen were and still are crap shoots. We didn't have the budget space for a top (and consistently good) RP'er, so our choices would have been all crap shoots.

[moonslav59]

The top RP'er contracts last winter were....

 

$39M/3 Britton

$30M/3 Familia

$27M/3 Ottavino

$25M/2 AMiller

$23M/2 Robertson

$25M/3 Kelly

$18M/2 Herrera

$15M/2 Soria

$10M/2 J Wilson

$8.5M/1 CAllen

$7M/1 TRosenthal

$8M/2 J Chavez

 

All others were under $3.25M a year.

 

I was pushing Cody Allen, due to his lower cost, and I hoped he'd rebound.

 

I suggested Ottavino, if we didn't care about going over the max line.

 

I did not want Kelly and felt Kimbrel would cost too much and may be ready for a decline.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by moonslav59