A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

Career .500 pitcher with a 1.6 whip and knee injuries. Should have been traded in offseason while the value was high.

Inconsistent at best

 

Hernandez Mata and Groome in the system, you could have helped your pen or farm system by dealing the player.

 

You’re an idiot

[moonslav59]

Right. The Sox should have dealt ERod and brought up Groome, ignoring his recent TJ surgery, and see how felt throwing right-handed for once...

 

And, Mata is in single A ball right now.

[moonslav59]

ERod lead the team in IP this year, something I never thought I'd say.

 

He's gotten past the 5th inning more than usual, too. He's gone 6 or more innings in 3 of his last 5 outings- something he only did twice last year. He was also only one out away from going 5+ IP in his last 5 starts.

 

We are 26-8 in ERod's last 34 starts.

[devildavid]

Yes, I certainly don't think the Red Sox are a sub-.500 team talent-wise.

 

It's virtually the same team that won 119 games last year. And so far, knock on wood, it's a relatively healthy team.

 

And what about the competition?

[sk7326]

ERod lead the team in IP this year, something I never thought I'd say.

 

He's gotten past the 5th inning more than usual, too. He's gone 6 or more innings in 3 of his last 5 outings- something he only did twice last year. He was also only one out away from going 5+ IP in his last 5 starts.

 

We are 26-8 in ERod's last 34 starts.

 

After a horrific 2 weeks, the Red Sox lead the league in starters' ERA. Now it would be wrong to just pretend the first two weeks didn't happen - but there is more reason to be bullish than not.

[Bellhorn04]

And what about the competition?

 

What about it? It's not like a bunch of other AL teams radically improved.

[sk7326]

What about it? It's not like a bunch of other AL teams radically improved.

 

Tampa did the most to try to improve. Honestly, the likelihood of Boston crushing the division was low just by virtue of dumb luck. This start was worse than I hoped for - but there is no reason to think this team (assuming relatively good health) can't be in the playoff mix.

[dgalehouse]

How's Joe Kelly doing?

 

12 Games, 8.31 ERA, 0-3 in converting saves...13 IP, 20 hits, 12 R/ER, .351 BA...

 

Yeah, he would have helped us...3 yr/25M, $8.3M CBT payroll..yikes

 

Kimmi is always right....don't spend on relievers.

 

The idea of not spending on relievers is being used by many , if not most , teams . And many , if not most , bullpens absolutely stink .

[Bellhorn04]

The idea of not spending on relievers is being used by many , if not most , teams . And many , if not most , bullpens absolutely stink .

 

Denny, if most bullpens stink, that means most relief pitchers stink. In which case there's not much point spending on them, is there?

[sk7326]

The idea of not spending on relievers is being used by many , if not most , teams . And many , if not most , bullpens absolutely stink .

 

That is because of the nature of the position. Just a ton of volatility. It's just easier to throw stuff at the wall until 7 or 8 semi-reliable guys stick. Relievers are getting paid, but one inning relievers are hard to justify.

[dgalehouse]

What about it? It's not like a bunch of other AL teams radically improved.

 

I honestly don't know if I have ever seen so much absolute garbage in the A.L. It is painful to watch some of these teams. I can't picture any scenario where the Sox don't make the playoffs . But the goal has to be winning the division . If the Yankees ever get healthy , it will be an interesting race .

[dgalehouse]

That is because of the nature of the position. Just a ton of volatility. It's just easier to throw stuff at the wall until 7 or 8 semi-reliable guys stick. Relievers are getting paid, but one inning relievers are hard to justify.

 

Like most things in life , you get what you pay for . I don't see why a reliever would be any different than any other player . Some are good , some are not .

[Bellhorn04]

Like most things in life , you get what you pay for . I don't see why a reliever would be any different than any other player . Some are good , some are not .

 

Most are not. You just said so yourself.

[Nick]

The idea of not spending on relievers is being used by many , if not most , teams . And many , if not most , bullpens absolutely stink .

 

Sox bullpen is just fine.

[OH FOY]

Yanks Severino out until after All-Star Break. Injuries are huge, to keep up a strong season

[dgalehouse]

Most are not. You just said so yourself.

 

Some relievers are good . Some are not . Some position players are good . Some are not . Some starters are good . Some are not . Most bullpens today are not good . The argument was , " don't spend on relievers ." If you go cheap on the bullpen , you will probably get what you paid for . If you went cheap on the outfield , you would get what you paid for . That is what has been happening to many teams . Obviously , you can't have seven or eight well paid guys in the bullpen. But you do need some quality .

[Bellhorn04]

Some relievers are good . Some are not . Some position players are good . Some are not . Some starters are good . Some are not . Most bullpens today are not good . The argument was , " don't spend on relievers ." If you go cheap on the bullpen , you will probably get what you paid for . If you went cheap on the outfield , you would get what you paid for . That is what has been happening to many teams . Obviously , you can't have seven or eight well paid guys in the bullpen. But you do need some quality .

 

So you're saying, apparently, that there are only a few good bullpens, and those few good ones are the ones with the guys making all the money.

[sk7326]

Like most things in life , you get what you pay for . I don't see why a reliever would be any different than any other player . Some are good , some are not .

 

First, all of them are failed starters. This usually implies a couple of things:

 

1. Not great control

2. Only two above average pitches

3. Really violent deliveries

 

The sample sizes for evaluating relievers is tiny. I mean a couple of bad appearances blows up most of your stats for the season. It's hard to find a lot of year to year consistency. I mean Ryan Brasier was just some random name the Sox found and he has been terrific. But he could very easily stop. Okajima was unhittable for a season and then stopped. Keith Foulke was heroic and then his arm fell off. There are a few good ones, but for the most part it's all context dependent.

[dgalehouse]

So you're saying, apparently, that there are only a few good bullpens, and those few good ones are the ones with the guys making all the money.

 

No . It's not that simple . What I am saying is that you get what you pay for . Whether it's a left fielder or a relief pitcher . Obviously , a team has a budget , and there are different pay scales at work . But if your plan is to go cheap on the bullpen , or any other area , you will probably not get quality . Just look at some of the bullpens in MLB today . They are terrible . Constant turnover .

[sk7326]

No . It's not that simple . What I am saying is that you get what you pay for . Whether it's a left fielder or a relief pitcher . Obviously , a team has a budget , and there are different pay scales at work . But if your plan is to go cheap on the bullpen , or any other area , you will probably not get quality . Just look at some of the bullpens in MLB today . They are terrible . Constant turnover .

 

I don't know - the Sox bullpen so far has been fine.

[dgalehouse]

The Yankees , for example , have four or five guys in the bullpen who are better than anyone in some teams pen . But it costs money .

[dgalehouse]

I don't know - the Sox bullpen so far has been fine.

 

Yes . It has .

[sk7326]

The Yankees , for example , have four or five guys in the bullpen who are better than anyone in some teams pen . But it costs money .

 

And it didn't stop them from spitting bit twice in the ALDS last year.

[dgalehouse]

And it didn't stop them from spitting bit twice in the ALDS last year.[/quote I do think the Sox had the better team , but anything can happen in the playoffs . The Yankees did win 100 games , despite many problems with their starting pitching . Their bullpen was the reason . In today's game , the bullpen is very important . So far , the Sox pen has been good .

[Slasher9]

So then wahat exactly is the problem???

[moonslav59]

I wish we had a better pen this year, but we look super strong everywhere else.

 

Here's a look at the two pens,so far this year:

 

NYY: 4.29 ERA/ 1.315 WHIP/ 2.40 K/BB

 

BOS: 4.36 ERA/ 1.294 WHIP/ 2.67 K/BB

 

Individual Pitchers by IP as a RP'er only:

ERA/WHIP (IP)

BOS

1.65/0.765 Walden (16.1)

4.02/1.340 Hembree (15.2)

1.84/0.955 Workman (14.2)

7.98/1.432 Thornburg (14.2)

2.57/0.929 Brasier (14.0)

2.08/0.769 Barnes (13.0)

6.23/1.846 Brewer (13.0)

 

NYY

4.00/1.056 Holder (18.0)

2.20/1.224 Ottavino (16.1)

3.60/1.333 L Cesa (15.0)

4.15/1.538 Britton (13.0)

1.42/0.789 Kahnle (12.2)

2.19/1.054 Chapman (12.1)

 

If Brasier and Barnes can start pitching more than Thornburg and Brewer, maybe we can get even better pen results. It is likely that Walden and Workman will come back down to earth, but we do have some upside at other slots.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Some tiny sample sizes, but...

 

Team ERA by catcher:

4.36 Vaz

4.67 Leon

6.17 Swihart

 

Individual pitcher OPS against by catcher (20+ PAs):

OPS/PAs

Leon

.626/77 Porcello

.744/68 Sale

 

Swihart

.975/44 Eovaldi

.423/26 Velazquez

1.338/26 Porcello

1.077/24 ERod

.769/23 Walden

 

Vaz

.705/142 Price

.729/139 ERod

.873/88 Sale

.812/51 Velazquez

.340/49 Workman

.831/49 Eovaldi

1.061/42 Porcello

.653/40 Brasier

.297/38 Walden

.661/35 Hembree

.583/33 Barnes

.745/32 Brewer

.957/31 Thornburg

 

Pitchers Overall OPS against:

.301 Workman

.450 Walden

.514 Barnes

.667 Velazquez

.695 Brewer

.705 Price

.768 Hembree

.779 ERod

.815 Sale

.870 Porcello

.899 Eovaldi

.933 Thornburg

 

QS%

50 Price

43 ERod

43 Sale

33 Porcello

25 Eovaldi

0 Velazquez

 

IP/GS

6.0 Price

5.3 Eovaldi

5.2 ERod & Porcello

5.1 Sale

2.8 Velazquez

 

 

 

 

 

1.061/.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

I wish we had a better pen this year, but we look super strong everywhere else.

 

Here's a look at the two pens,so far this year:

 

NYY: 4.29 ERA/ 1.315 WHIP/ 2.40 K/BB

 

BOS: 4.36 ERA/ 1.294 WHIP/ 2.67 K/BB

 

Individual Pitchers by IP as a RP'er only:

ERA/WHIP (IP)

BOS

1.65/0.765 Walden (16.1)

4.02/1.340 Hembree (15.2)

1.84/0.955 Workman (14.2)

7.98/1.432 Thornburg (14.2)

2.57/0.929 Brasier (14.0)

2.08/0.769 Barnes (13.0)

6.23/1.846 Brewer (13.0)

 

NYY

4.00/1.056 Holder (18.0)

2.20/1.224 Ottavino (16.1)

3.60/1.333 L Cesa (15.0)

4.15/1.538 Britton (13.0)

1.42/0.789 Kahnle (12.2)

2.19/1.054 Chapman (12.1)

 

If Brasier and Barnes can start pitching more than Thornburg and Brewer, maybe we can get even better pen results. It is likely that Walden and Workman will come back down to earth, but we do have some upside at other slots.

 

 

Thornburg and Brewer pitch mostly in games that are already pretty much won or lost . There have been quite a few of those so far . I don't entirely trust Brasier yet . Barnes looks good . He doesn't seem to throw lot of strikes , but is able to get hitters to chase . Hopefully, it stays that way . Workman is the X factor. He has been more effective than he has ever been . Can that continue ?

[moonslav59]

Thornburg and Brewer pitch mostly in games that are already pretty much won or lost . There have been quite a few of those so far . I don't entirely trust Brasier yet . Barnes looks good . He doesn't seem to throw lot of strikes , but is able to get hitters to chase . Hopefully, it stays that way . Workman is the X factor. He has been more effective than he has ever been . Can that continue ?

 

Weird thing is, Workman's K/BB ratio is his worst at 1.75. (His career K/BB is 2.36.)

 

Workman had two almost identical years before this one:

 

2017: 3.18 ERA/1.210 WHIP in 39.2 IP

 

2018: 3.27 ERA/1.210 WHIP in 41.1 IP

 

He's been largely unsung. Maybe this is the year he makes a name for himself.

[moonslav59]

We are now 5 GB first place and 2.5 behind the Guardians.

 

Don't look now, but Vaz has an .857 OPS over the last 4 weeks!

 

Season Splits, so far...

 

vs RHPs

1.155 Chavis

1.050 Betts

 

.893 Moreland

.851 Beni

.839 Devers

 

.732 Bogey

.730 JD

 

.592 Vaz

.502 JBJ

.414 Nunez

.306 Pearce

 

vs LHPs

1.577 JD

1.294 Chavis

1.262 Bogey

1.136 Vaz

 

.767 Beni

.694 Devers

 

.528 Moreland

.492 Nunez

.482 Betts

.377 Pearce

.273 JBJ