A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dgalehouse]

I don't think this is at all a fair representation of the faith the fans have in DD.

 

This assumes we know what he's doing. We don't. All we know is what he has done and what he hasn't done so far.

 

For all we know he may have decided that Barnes or Brasier is going to be the closer so he's not looking for anyone else to close.

 

OTOH, he may be waiting for the market to settle for closers hoping that he can sign Kimbrel to a deal, maybe one with an opt out.

 

We don't know.

 

If I had to guess , I would guess that he has an agreement with Kimbrel's agent to check back with him before signing with another team . Just a guess .

[dgalehouse]

I asked Alexa ; " Alexa , who is going to close for the Red Sox this year ?" She said , " Hmmm, I'm not sure." True story.

[dgalehouse]

He's a luxury piece, nice to have, but not essential. Which is part of why I think there's still some cash in the sock drawer for a reliever.

 

There might be mega millions hidden in that sock drawer.

[kenmeister]

I, for one, am not panicked in the least about the relief pitching situation. I've come to accept that free agency now entails brinkmanship that leads to deals in February and March.

[notin]

I asked Alexa ; " Alexa , who is going to close for the Red Sox this year ?" She said , " Hmmm, I'm not sure." True story.

 

 

IfAlexa says so, then clearly there is no plan...

[dgalehouse]

IfAlexa says so, then clearly there is no plan...

 

Well , she does know a lot of stuff.

[Bellhorn04]

I, for one, am not panicked in the least about the relief pitching situation. I've come to accept that free agency now entails brinkmanship that leads to deals in February and March.

 

Brinkmanship, good word.

[jacksonianmarch]

I, for one, am not panicked in the least about the relief pitching situation. I've come to accept that free agency now entails brinkmanship that leads to deals in February and March.

 

Yes, last year led to serious "brinkmanship". But this year, the Yanks and Dodgers are spending again. The Cubs are willing to spend a bit too. The White Sox are willing to spend. The Reds have spent to retool. The Phillies have really shown their wallets. Last year was very different. Every team was holding their cash for this offseason. Now, this offseason is here. The sox have Kimbrel and Ottavino as options right now who could really be good additions. The rest are reclamation projects

[moonslav59]

Where would this pen rank among the 30 MLB teams?

 

Cody Allen

Brasier

Barnes

Brad Brach

Hembree

Thornburg

Workman/Johnson/Velazquez/Wright/Poyner/Lakins

 

Where would it rank, if we just signed Allen or Brach?

 

Granted, I'd rank the top contenders' pens stronger than ours, but we are stronger than them in several areas.

 

Do we really need to be top 5 or 6 at every phase of the game?

 

 

 

[S5Dewey]

Yes, last year led to serious "brinkmanship". But this year, the Yanks and Dodgers are spending again. The Cubs are willing to spend a bit too. The White Sox are willing to spend. The Reds have spent to retool. The Phillies have really shown their wallets. Last year was very different. Every team was holding their cash for this offseason. Now, this offseason is here. The sox have Kimbrel and Ottavino as options right now who could really be good additions. The rest are reclamation projects

 

It could very well be that the next domino to fall, whether it be Kimbrel or Ottavino, will be the one that makes DD take action on the other one.

[moonslav59]

It could very well be that the next domino to fall, whether it be Kimbrel or Ottavino, will be the one that makes DD take action on the other one.

 

Maybe, but my guess is, we don't get either, unless we trade salary.

[S5Dewey]

If I had to guess , I would guess that he has an agreement with Kimbrel's agent to check back with him before signing with another team . Just a guess .

 

Maybe, but maybe not too. What that says is that the Red Sox aren't willing to negotiate with Kimbrel but they want to know how little they may be able to sign him for.

 

We have car dealers like that. "See anyone else you want but see us LAST!!!". These are the dealers who don't want to put the work into the negotiations but they're more than willing to have me (or Kimbrel's agent) travel all over Christ's Creation to strike a deal and then up the deal by as little as possible. I avoid these dealers just on general principles.

 

It reminds me of Stephanie VanDerkellen saying to her boyfriend, "I'm sick of fighting with you. What's the absolute least I can do for us to get back together again."

[dgalehouse]

Maybe, but maybe not too. What that says is that the Red Sox aren't willing to negotiate with Kimbrel but they want to know how little they may be able to sign him for.

 

We have car dealers like that. "See anyone else you want but see us LAST!!!". These are the dealers who don't want to put the work into the negotiations but they're more than willing to have me (or Kimbrel's agent) travel all over Christ's Creation to strike a deal and then up the deal by as little as possible. I avoid these dealers just on general principles.

 

It reminds me of Stephanie VanDerkellen saying to her boyfriend, "I'm sick of fighting with you. What's the absolute least I can do for us to get back together again."

 

Well , That's negotiation. Kimbrel's agent was playing the game too when he asked for the moon and stars to begin talks .

[jacksonianmarch]

It could very well be that the next domino to fall, whether it be Kimbrel or Ottavino, will be the one that makes DD take action on the other one.

 

I agree with you on that one

[dgalehouse]

Where would this pen rank among the 30 MLB teams?

 

Cody Allen

Brasier

Barnes

Brad Brach

Hembree

Thornburg

Workman/Johnson/Velazquez/Wright/Poyner/Lakins

 

Where would it rank, if we just signed Allen or Brach?

 

Granted, I'd rank the top contenders' pens stronger than ours, but we are stronger than them in several areas.

 

Do we really need to be top 5 or 6 at every phase of the game?

 

 

 

Quite frankly , I would not want to defend a championship with that bullpen.

[notin]

Well , she does know a lot of stuff.

 

 

Have you asked her about the meaning of life?

[notin]

It could very well be that the next domino to fall, whether it be Kimbrel or Ottavino, will be the one that makes DD take action on the other one.

 

 

Here’s the thing.

 

There are at least two other teams with no closer and a big wallet - the Cubs and the Angels. And then there’s always those teams with closers who just want more in the bullpen.

 

If DD can spend, I would think he’d have his guy by now. Waiting out Martinez only worked last year because no one else got involved. But in this closer market, there are too many other teams making calls. Waiting this out is doing nothing. There are still thee chairs left and two closers to sit down in this game of reverse musical chairs.

 

Which makes me think - DD doesn’t want those big name multiyear guys. One year deals? (Herrera and/or Allen?) Maybe. Trades?

 

Also important- see who is this year’s Moustakas - you know, will there be a guy who turned down a QO and still can’t get better offers than 1year $6mill. I think DD is hoping it’s Yasmani Grandal...

Edited January 7, 2019 by notin

[Nick]

https://weei.radio.com/articles/column/tomase-craig-kimbrel-red-sox-reliever-remains-available-because-hes-flawed-not

 

Here's great article on WEEI about Kimbrel. I'd look elsewhere. I prefer mid year acquisition depending on how Brasier/Barnes do.

[dgalehouse]

https://weei.radio.com/articles/column/tomase-craig-kimbrel-red-sox-reliever-remains-available-because-hes-flawed-not

 

Here's great article on WEEI about Kimbrel. I'd look elsewhere. I prefer mid year acquisition depending on how Brasier/Barnes do.

 

That is giving an awful lot of credence to the opinion of John Tomase .

[moonslav59]

Quite frankly , I would not want to defend a championship with that bullpen.

 

The rest of the team more than makes up for it.

 

Besides, we won last year somewhat easily, despite Kimbrel's horrendous playoff numbers.

[dgalehouse]

The rest of the team more than makes up for it.

 

Besides, we won last year somewhat easily, despite Kimbrel's horrendous playoff numbers.

 

I disagree. The rest of the team cannot make up for a faulty bullpen. We won last year somewhat easily partly because Kimbrel had 42 saves , in what for him , was a bad year. That was 42 wins in the bank. We went 11-3 in the post season . Kimbrel, despite his struggles, had six saves and never blew a lead or contributed to one of the three losses . That is the reality. If you normally like to forget small sample sizes and look at the bigger picture, why do you do the opposite here ? Can you name me one reliever who can match Kimbrel's nine year track record ?

[harmony]

Do we really need to be top 5 or 6 at every phase of the game?

Clearly not.

 

Last year the Red Sox finished a distant, distant last in fWAR from the catcher position:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... 22nd in fWAR at second base:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... and 27th in fWAR from third base:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Nevertheless the Red Sox were clearly superior enough at other positions to coast to a World Series title.

Edited January 7, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I disagree. The rest of the team cannot make up for a faulty bullpen. We won last year somewhat easily partly because Kimbrel had 42 saves , in what for him , was a bad year. That was 42 wins in the bank. We went 11-3 in the post season . Kimbrel, despite his struggles, had six saves and never blew a lead or contributed to one of the three losses . That is the reality. If you normally like to forget small sample sizes and look at the bigger picture, why do you do the opposite here ? Can you name me one reliever who can match Kimbrel's nine year track record ?

 

Anybody can match Kimbrel's playoff numbers. You can glorify those saves all you want, but he sucked.

 

It's not about his last 9 years (which are the best of any active closer); it's about his next 4-5 years and how his contract will mean we lose someone after 2019, we might have been able to keep..

 

The big picture includes projected decline by age. The big picture includes looking at the whole roster and not focusing on one role.

 

To me, I'm looking at the big picture, and you're using a microscope.

 

Look, I'm not for standing pat, and if the budget is not a concern for 2019 or beyond, then I'm all in for a solid closer.

 

Just humor me, if we plan on not going past the $40M line in 2019 and will reset after 2019, how do we sign Kimbrel?

 

Who do you trade this winter to clear budget space?

 

What extra player walks after 2019, because of Kimbrel's $16M+ contract?

 

Just assume DD has limits.

 

We can't go back and undo the Pearce or Eovaldi signings. We have less than $5M to spend without going $40M over for the second straight season.

[moonslav59]

Clearly not.

 

Last year the Red Sox finished a distant, distant last in fWAR from the catcher position:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... 22nd in fWAR at second base:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... and 27th in fWAR from third base:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Nevertheless the Red Sox were clearly superior enough at other position to coast to a World Series title.

 

...and my guess is we improve at 3B, 2B and C this year, which can help offset the decline in our pen numbers.

[dgalehouse]

Anybody can match Kimbrel's playoff numbers. You can glorify those saves all you want, but he sucked.

 

It's not about his last 9 years (which are the best of any active closer); it's about his next 4-5 years and how his contract will mean we lose someone after 2019, we might have been able to keep..

 

The big picture includes projected decline by age. The big picture includes looking at the whole roster and not focusing on one role.

 

To me, I'm looking at the big picture, and you're using a microscope.

 

Look, I'm not for standing pat, and if the budget is not a concern for 2019 or beyond, then I'm all in for a solid closer.

 

Just humor me, if we plan on not going past the $40M line in 2019 and will reset after 2019, how do we sign Kimbrel?

 

Who do you trade this winter to clear budget space?

 

What extra player walks after 2019, because of Kimbrel's $16M+ contract?

 

Just assume DD has limits.

 

We can't go back and undo the Pearce or Eovaldi signings. We have less than $5M to spend without going $40M over for the second straight season.

 

I'm not glorifying the saves . Just pointing out what actually happened. And not everybody can match that . Some have blown leads and lost big games . That has happened a lot , even to the best . You are dismissing a nine year body of work that is as good, or better , than anyone has ever accomplished. Kimbrel is 30 years old and has always been healthy , strong and durable . Could he decline in ability? Of course. So could any of the others . I'm sorry. I don't get it . If you prefer Cody Allen because you think he can " bounce back " , so be it . I am looking for the Sox to repeat in 2019 . As far as somebody walking in 2020 or beyond, let's cross that bridge when we get to it . We need a strong, deep bullpen to win this season .

[notin]

I'm not glorifying the saves . Just pointing out what actually happened. And not everybody can match that . Some have blown leads and lost big games . That has happened a lot , even to the best . You are dismissing a nine year body of work that is as good, or better , than anyone has ever accomplished. Kimbrel is 30 years old and has always been healthy , strong and durable . Could he decline in ability? Of course. So could any of the others . I'm sorry. I don't get it . If you prefer Cody Allen because you think he can " bounce back " , so be it . I am looking for the Sox to repeat in 2019 . As far as somebody walking in 2020 or beyond, let's cross that bridge when we get to it . We need a strong, deep bullpen to win this season .

 

 

I have to defend Dombrowski here. His job does involve looking at 2020 NOW. Not in 2020. Now!

 

It may not be popular with the fans, but that is the cold, hard reality of his job. And that won’t change just because fans don’t like it. As the saying goes “Don’t listen to the people in the stands, or else you’ll wind up sitting with them.”...

Edited January 7, 2019 by notin

[dgalehouse]

Have you asked her about the meaning of life?

 

To tell you the truth, I'm a little afraid to do that.

[notin]

That is giving an awful lot of credence to the opinion of John Tomase .

 

 

Most of the opinions on Kimbrel were from former scout and front office executive Keith Law, whose opinions on Kimbrel run completely opposite yours (and, so as not to single you out, probably a very large number of fans as well).

 

You might think Tomase, who’s written some strange things in his day, might be of his rocker. I could agree with that plenty of times. But Keith Law typically knows what he is talking about...

Edited January 7, 2019 by notin

[notin]

To tell you the truth, I'm a little afraid to do that.

 

 

Give it a try and see if it says “42”...

[notin]

Per rotoworld, the Giants plan on making reliever Will Smith available once the closer market thins out.

 

Smith is a relief stud. If the Sox can score Smith (for Dalbec and Hernandez?) and sign, say, Kelvin Herrera, how would that make people feel about this bullpen?