A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not really sure why getting Pearce ended this. Do people forget that JDM is also the DH and plays everyday? Was the plan tomove JD to first against lefties and let the pitcher bat in those games?

 

??? I thought the idea of JD playing first was all about him doing it in NL parks, so Moreland would be sitting instead of Benintendi.

[notin]

??? I thought the idea of JD playing first was all about him doing it in NL parks, so Moreland would be sitting instead of Benintendi.

 

I assumed so, too, but it appears to have expanded beyond those 9 games...

[moonslav59]

2018 Pitching Splits

OPS Against vs RHBs

.313 Brasier

.508 Kimbrel

.610 Barnes

.703 Kelly

.798 Walden

.725 Workman

.847 Hembree

.882 Poyner

.918 Smith

.947 Pom

.972 Thornburg

 

.555 Sale

.630 Wright

.636 Eovaldi

.672 Porcello

.679 ERod

.695 Price

.734 Velazquez

.810 Johnson

 

vs LHBs

.200 Smith

.420 Poyner

.551 Hembree

.610 Walden

.610 Kelly

.631 Kimbrel

.643 Barnes

.647 Brasier

.670 Workman

.800 Thornburg

 

.424 Sale

.665 Johnson

.670 Wright

.672 Price

.691 ERod

.705 Pom

.727 Porcello

.733 Eovaldi

.806 Velazquez

 

[moonslav59]

Pretty amazing that we've dropped these contracts and are still over the luxury tax limit after signing Pearce (and projected arb raises):

 

$22M HRam

$13M Kimbrel

$11M Kinsler (We did not pay most of this.)

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Joe Kelly

$2.0M Eovaldi (We did not pay most of this.)

$0.7M Phillips

 

$61M gone (maybe $58M from our 2018 budget)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Pretty amazing that we've dropped these contracts and are still over the luxury tax limit after signing Pearce (and projected arb raises):

 

$22M HRam

$13M Kimbrel

$11M Kinsler (We did not pay most of this.)

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Joe Kelly

$2.0M Eovaldi (We did not pay most of this.)

$0.7M Phillips

 

$61M gone (maybe $58M from our 2018 budget)

 

 

 

The arb raises must be virtually equal to the 22 million subtracted for HanRam.

 

Think how bad it would look if that option vested.

[moonslav59]

The arb raises must be virtually equal to the 22 million subtracted for HanRam.

 

Think how bad it would look if that option vested.

 

That's why every other excuse was a smoke screen. It was always about the money.

 

Hram>Swihart

[cp176]

That's why every other excuse was a smoke screen. It was always about the money.

 

Hram>Swihart

 

I don't think so - more to it would be my guess. Has nothing to do with his hair either.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pretty amazing that we've dropped these contracts and are still over the luxury tax limit after signing Pearce (and projected arb raises):

 

$22M HRam

$13M Kimbrel

$11M Kinsler (We did not pay most of this.)

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Joe Kelly

$2.0M Eovaldi (We did not pay most of this.)

$0.7M Phillips

 

$61M gone (maybe $58M from our 2018 budget)

 

 

 

This is why the cliff exists. Cheap talent becomes expensive and no cheap talent behind it

[Station 13]

Payroll explodes in baseball while the lux tax limit has not kept up.

[moonslav59]

This is why the cliff exists. Cheap talent becomes expensive and no cheap talent behind it

 

I get your point, but our talent is not cheap. We have a solid 25

[moonslav59]

Payroll explodes in baseball while the lux tax limit has not kept up.

 

The luxury tax only affects about 6-8 teams, and it seems like those 6-8 just try to reset every 3-4 years,so it's not a big issue in terms of the limit.

 

The mega taxes on the 3rd year is what gets teams wanting to reset.

[Larry Cook]

We still need a couple relievers and another starter. John Henry needs to reach a little deeper into his pocket.

 

Thankfully the exodus of talented youngsters via trades, that depleted our minor league system, yielded such stellar arms as smith and thornburg!!

 

Where would we be without those two workhorses????

[moonslav59]

We still need a couple relievers and another starter. John Henry needs to reach a little deeper into his pocket.

 

Thankfully the exodus of talented youngsters via trades, that depleted our minor league system, yielded such stellar arms as smith and thornburg!!

 

Where would we be without those two workhorses????

 

We'd have Wade Miley and Travis Shaw.

 

I'm not sure Henry opens the wallet all the way, but he could. I wouldn't be surprised if he only replaces 2 of the big 3 that are leaving (Eovaldi, Kimbrel & Kelly)

 

Johnson, Velazquez or Wright might start the year in a key role (5th starter or key pen role).

 

Barnes, Brasier or Hembree might be expected to move up a notch in the pen, and we could back fill with ...

Poyner/Workman/Thornburg/Maddox/Walden/Scott/ others

 

I think we'd be very strong replacing 2 slots and keeping some money for the summer.

 

Look what DD dug up this summer!

[OH FOY]

That's why every other excuse was a smoke screen. It was always about the money.

 

Hram>Swihart

 

If you think that fine, but it worked they won it all without, him. Never got close with him. 29-15 with him, especially after that start. They started out 19-2 right, then 10-13 with him there after that. 79-39 after he was gone. Cora saw he was not a piece to this team, once JD got here. Smart move to save the money too, by DD.

Edited November 20, 2018 by OH FOY!

[kenmeister]

If you think that fine, but it worked they won it all without, him. Never got close with him. 29-15 with him, especially after that start. They started out 19-2 right, then 10-13 with him there after that. 79-39 after he was gone. Cora saw he was not a piece to this team, once JD got here. Smart move to save the money too, by DD.

 

Also we would never have acquired Steve Pearce if Hanley was still on the team.

[cp176]

We still need a couple relievers and another starter. John Henry needs to reach a little deeper into his pocket.

 

Thankfully the exodus of talented youngsters via trades, that depleted our minor league system, yielded such stellar arms as smith and thornburg!!

 

Where would we be without those two workhorses????

 

He's baaaaaack!

[Bellhorn04]

We still need a couple relievers and another starter. John Henry needs to reach a little deeper into his pocket.

 

Thankfully the exodus of talented youngsters via trades, that depleted our minor league system, yielded such stellar arms as smith and thornburg!!

 

Where would we be without those two workhorses????

 

Yeah, what did desperate dave do for us this year?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Lol

[notin]

Yeah, what did desperate dave do for us this year?

 

Smith was a waste, but what prospects did the Sox give up there?

 

If Thornburg can rebound, he could be a very important part of 2019...

[jacksonianmarch]

Anyone arguing that letting Hanley walk was a bad idea is not living in reality

[Dojji]

Moving Hanley made room for Pearce. That's a win right there.

[Larry Cook]

Moving Hanley made room for Pearce. That's a win right there.

 

Amen brother!

[notin]

Bullpen thoughts:

 

The Sox need to replace about 125 IP or so in the pen with the losses of Kimbrel and Kelly. Dombrowski is a notorious fan of hard throwers evidenced by his acquisitions of Eovaldi and Brasier. And probably the biggest factor in an Eovaldi reunion.

 

If he signs Eovaldi, it could mean not enough budget for Kimbrel. But it might mean he can target Joe Kelly or possibly Jeurys Familia, as they are two of the hardest throwers on the market not countIng Kimbrel.

 

A second reliever is probably still needed. Two potential targets that should intrigue him is buy-low candidate Corey Knebel in Milwaukee and Alex Colome in Seattle. Both teams might be interested in one of the Sox catchers, probably Vazquez.

 

I’d think a Seattle trade is more likely. Vazquez hasn’t really shown himself to be a huge upgrade over current Brewer backstop Manny Pina. (I think both teams would prefer Vazquez over Swihart). Seattle also might be the one team to value Sam Travis in a trade, given GM DiPoto’s historic obsession with high OBP college hitters. Presumably another minor leaguer needs to be added here as well. I’m open to suggestions. (Maybe two if DiPoto doesn’t like Travis as much as I think he does, which is extremely possible.)

[jacksonianmarch]

The mariners may be interested in Vaz but one has to remember two things about him. He’s not on an easily droppable arb contract and he is coming off an absolutely abysmal offensive season. He is also coming off a season where his defensive reputation was tarnished a bit in that Sandy Leon started just as much as he did and Vaz is supposed to be a D first catcher. My guess is the Mariners wouldn’t deal Colome for him without the Sox offering something painful to part with.

 

I also think the Mariners are gonna keep Colome and install him as their close. I think the M’s capitalize on Diaz’ big 2018 and get a kings ransom for him this offseason

[notin]

Vasquez is not an arbitration contract. He’s signed for 3 years with $13.3 mill remaining.

 

But if Seattle does try to deal Diaz, it might change their plans. They also might hold him until July, given the abundance of closers on the free agent market...

[jacksonianmarch]

Vasquez is not an arbitration contract. He’s signed for 3 years with $13.3 mill remaining.

 

But if Seattle does try to deal Diaz, it might change their plans. They also might hold him until July, given the abundance of closers on the free agent market...

 

What I am saying is Vaz has guaranteed outlay, so if they get him and he totally tanks, they cannot just cut bait. The arb schedule is far more appealing in a case like Vazquez.

 

I doubt the Mariners get more at the deadline for a guy like Diaz. There are closers available and then there's Diaz, arguably coming off one of the top 10 closer seasons of all time. He is also young and has stuff for days. If he is dealt, he will return a kings ransom no matter when he is made available, especially with him coming with 3-4 years of cheap control

[notin]

What I am saying is Vaz has guaranteed outlay, so if they get him and he totally tanks, they cannot just cut bait. The arb schedule is far more appealing in a case like Vazquez.

 

I doubt the Mariners get more at the deadline for a guy like Diaz. There are closers available and then there's Diaz, arguably coming off one of the top 10 closer seasons of all time. He is also young and has stuff for days. If he is dealt, he will return a kings ransom no matter when he is made available, especially with him coming with 3-4 years of cheap control

 

If the last 12 months are any indication, for non-star players it’s the arbitration years that are becoming the costly ones and free agency is becoming cheap control...

[moonslav59]

If you think that fine, but it worked they won it all without, him. Never got close with him. 29-15 with him, especially after that start. They started out 19-2 right, then 10-13 with him there after that. 79-39 after he was gone. Cora saw he was not a piece to this team, once JD got here. Smart move to save the money too, by DD.

 

It was a brilliant move by DD. I loved it at the time and love it more now.

 

They gave HRam his shot. They actually played him more at the start of the year than I thought he deserved. When he slumped, and it appeared his playing time would diminish, Cora rightfully saw a problem with how HRam would probably not handle his new role all that well, but to me, and yes it is only my opinion, if it wasn't for his contract, he'd have been on the team to the end of the season. No Pearce. Probably, no vesting option, as his PAs would have been significantly reduced by Moreland playing against all righties.

[moonslav59]

Smith was a waste, but what prospects did the Sox give up there?

 

 

Jonothan Aro.

[moonslav59]

The mariners may be interested in Vaz but one has to remember two things about him. He’s not on an easily droppable arb contract and he is coming off an absolutely abysmal offensive season. He is also coming off a season where his defensive reputation was tarnished a bit in that Sandy Leon started just as much as he did and Vaz is supposed to be a D first catcher. My guess is the Mariners wouldn’t deal Colome for him without the Sox offering something painful to part with.

 

I also think the Mariners are gonna keep Colome and install him as their close. I think the M’s capitalize on Diaz’ big 2018 and get a kings ransom for him this offseason

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting just Vaz for Colome. Since Seattle is in rebuild mode, they may take a prospect or two with Vaz.

 

I'm not so down on Vaz anymore. He slumped at the start of the year- both offensively & defensively, but he came on strong just before getting hurt and then struggled to come back until we saw him catching in the playoffs in situations usually reserved for Leon.

 

It won't surprise me, if we trade Vaz, but I think he bounces back next year for whomever he plays for.

 

He's basically had one bad half season out of his last 4.