A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

 

Maybe, I literally busted a gut screaming when the Sox won it all!

 

this made me lol.

 

or i bet you had second thoughts when you said "if they only win this one more WS i can die a happy man".

[moonslav59]

this made me lol.

 

or i bet you had second thoughts when you said "if they only win this one more WS i can die a happy man".

 

I have been known to mutter those exact words!

 

(Especially pre -2004)

[BillyWilliams]

One writer's take on the "cliff"

 

The breaking up of the World Series Red Sox will begin fast

By Joel Sherman November 8, 2018 | 12:13pm

 

CARLSBAD, Calif. — Dave Dombrowski has the most dramatic disassembling of a champion on his ledger.

 

In 1997, then-Marlins owner Wayne Huizenga claimed $30 million-ish in operating losses and was furious that the county would not finance a new stadium. He ordered his then-GM, Dombrowski, to trade all of his expensive players, who had just won the organization’s first title.

 

By midseason 1998, Dombrowski had traded — among others — Moises Alou, Bobby Bonilla, Kevin Brown, Jeff Conine, Charles Johnson, Al Leiter, Robb Nen, Gary Sheffield and Devon White, slicing the payroll from $53 million to $13 million. By the time John Henry bought the club from Huizenga after the 1998 season, it had lost a franchise-record 108 games.

 

This time, Dombrowski, Boston’s president of baseball operations, has Henry as the owner from the outset. And the payroll — a team record of about $238 million in 2018 — is likely to stay about the same and perhaps even go up, Dombrowski said. Still, Dombrowski conceded there are “tough decisions” this offseason and the near future because retaining the core for the next few years would probably blow the Red Sox payroll beyond $300 million, especially since they used many top prospects to add players such as Craig Kimbrel, Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz and are not teeming with near-ready, inexpensive options to plug in.

 

“It is unrealistic to think we can keep the now-2018 champion Red Sox together,” Dombrowski said.

 

The Red Sox’s championship was timely because they are about to risk losing vital core pieces over the next few years. This offseason, closer Kimbrel and postseason stars Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Kelly and Steve Pearce are free agents. Next offseason, J.D. Martinez can opt out and join Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, Mitch Moreland and Brock Holt in free agency. The next year, likely 2018 MVP Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. are up.

Of that group, Bogaerts and Betts perhaps feel most urgent to retain long term.

 

“There are definitely guys we want to keep, but I am sure Washington wants to keep [bryce] Harper,” Dombrowski said. “It’s not easy. You can’t keep the same group together, but it doesn’t mean you can’t keep a championship-caliber team. We will never complain about finances. We have generous owners.”

 

https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/the-breaking-up-of-the-world-series-red-sox-will-begin-fast/

[moonslav59]

I think we stay highly competitive until after 2020, but if we are struggling in 2020, we may have a fire sale in July.

 

My hope is we can regain competitiveness after just 1-2 years of being not so great.

[BillyWilliams]

I think we stay highly competitive until after 2020, but if we are struggling in 2020, we may have a fire sale in July.

 

My hope is we can regain competitiveness after just 1-2 years of being not so great.

 

I hope you heal fast, best wishes to you.

[moonslav59]

I hope you heal fast, best wishes to you.

 

Just talked to the surgeon. I will need surgery once the acute diverticulitis is gone.

 

It's probably for the best to have the surgery this year, as this hospital stay made me reach my deductible.

 

My $6K max out of pocket is going to be met, for sure.

 

Thanks again to everyone for all the kind thoughts.

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, I think it begins next offseason. Your 2019 will be a mostly intact 2018 club minus Kimbrel. You didn't need Eovaldi to win 108 games. Losing Kimbrel and just the relative impossibility of winning 108 games in back to back seasons will lead to some sort of regression, but the sox will be a mid 90s to 100 win team again next year barring an ultimate collapse. But there is literally no way to weather the 2019-2020 offseason without significant losses on the big league roster with more coming. And it isn't like the sox can plug and play another Beni or ERod into the spots of guys moving on.

 

I also hear about retaining Eovaldi a lot and while his post season heroics were insane, the guy's regular season track record for 2018 wasn't that great. He averaged less than 5IP for the sox. His ERA was good, but his starts were marred by high pitch counts. Overall, he threw 109IP in 21 starts, which comes out to a tick above 5IP per start. Let's say the plan is to re-sign Eovaldi and let Porcello walk after 2019. Porcello has averaged 197.3IP over 4 seasons in Boston with an average of 32 starts per season. His IP/start average is 6.2IP (actually 6.2, ie removal with one out in the 7th). Eovaldi has averaged 6IP per start once in his career and has hit 30 starts once in his career. With the Yankees he was at 5.47IP per appearance. In 2018 overall, he averaged 5.1IP per start. By replacing Porcello with Eovaldi, you are likely to save some money on a per annum contract, but you have to assume that the pen will need to work an extra inning per start. That extra inning is valuable, clearly. Also the extra starts are valuable. Eovaldi made 27 starts and then 21 starts with the Yanks. Those are his second and fourth highest start totals respectively. Replacing Porcello with him will lead to more 6th starter starts and one inning more of relief in games he can toe the rubber.

 

The other thing the sox will have to deal with is what to do with Chris Sale? If Sale comes out firing in ST and has his usual season of 200IP, dominant starts and then fade late, do you sign him to an ace level deal? Clearly, if he doesn't go out and throw tons of innings, he isn't gonna be re-signed, but the question marks with Sale have mostly been muted by the unexpected performances of the other guys in the rotation and haven't been entirely addressed. If you re-sign Sale, he will eat a ton of your budget. If you don't, it will leave a big hole at the top of the rotation

Edited November 9, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[jacksonianmarch]

Just talked to the surgeon. I will need surgery once the acute diverticulitis is gone.

 

It's probably for the best to have the surgery this year, as this hospital stay made me reach my deductible.

 

My $6K max out of pocket is going to be met, for sure.

 

Thanks again to everyone for all the kind thoughts.

 

Not really for the best. If they operate now, you'll end up with a colostomy and then need a reversal 9-12 months down the line. If you wait 6-8 weeks, the inflammation will be gone and they can do an end to end anastomosis which will keep you from having a bag. Likelihood is surgery will be in January or February just based on timing that you are posting

[moonslav59]

Not really for the best. If they operate now, you'll end up with a colostomy and then need a reversal 9-12 months down the line. If you wait 6-8 weeks, the inflammation will be gone and they can do an end to end anastomosis which will keep you from having a bag. Likelihood is surgery will be in January or February just based on timing that you are posting

 

The surgery will be for the Umbilical hernia not the diverticulitis.

[jacksonianmarch]

I see. That makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Slav, I think it begins next offseason. Your 2019 will be a mostly intact 2018 club minus Kimbrel. You didn't need Eovaldi to win 108 games. Losing Kimbrel and just the relative impossibility of winning 108 games in back to back seasons will lead to some sort of regression, but the sox will be a mid 90s to 100 win team again next year barring an ultimate collapse. But there is literally no way to weather the 2019-2020 offseason without significant losses on the big league roster with more coming. And it isn't like the sox can plug and play another Beni or ERod into the spots of guys moving on.

 

I also hear about retaining Eovaldi a lot and while his post season heroics were insane, the guy's regular season track record for 2018 wasn't that great. He averaged less than 5IP for the sox. His ERA was good, but his starts were marred by high pitch counts. Overall, he threw 109IP in 21 starts, which comes out to a tick above 5IP per start. Let's say the plan is to re-sign Eovaldi and let Porcello walk after 2019. Porcello has averaged 197.3IP over 4 seasons in Boston with an average of 32 starts per season. His IP/start average is 6.2IP (actually 6.2, ie removal with one out in the 7th). Eovaldi has averaged 6IP per start once in his career and has hit 30 starts once in his career. With the Yankees he was at 5.47IP per appearance. In 2018 overall, he averaged 5.1IP per start. By replacing Porcello with Eovaldi, you are likely to save some money on a per annum contract, but you have to assume that the pen will need to work an extra inning per start. That extra inning is valuable, clearly. Also the extra starts are valuable. Eovaldi made 27 starts and then 21 starts with the Yanks. Those are his second and fourth highest start totals respectively. Replacing Porcello with him will lead to more 6th starter starts and one inning more of relief in games he can toe the rubber.

 

The other thing the sox will have to deal with is what to do with Chris Sale? If Sale comes out firing in ST and has his usual season of 200IP, dominant starts and then fade late, do you sign him to an ace level deal? Clearly, if he doesn't go out and throw tons of innings, he isn't gonna be re-signed, but the question marks with Sale have mostly been muted by the unexpected performances of the other guys in the rotation and haven't been entirely addressed. If you re-sign Sale, he will eat a ton of your budget. If you don't, it will leave a big hole at the top of the rotation

 

It certainly could start after 2019, and I have said that on other posts. It all comes down to Henry's willingness to keep spending and paying high taxes.

 

I do think, even if Henry okays spending a lot in 2020, we may still lose one high profile player. To me, we'd still be highly competitive without JD, Sale or Bogey... maybe not the faves, but certainly still a formidable team.

[jacksonianmarch]

It certainly could start after 2019, and I have said that on other posts. It all comes down to Henry's willingness to keep spending and paying high taxes.

 

I do think, even if Henry okays spending a lot in 2020, we may still lose one high profile player. To me, we'd still be highly competitive without JD, Sale or Bogey... maybe not the faves, but certainly still a formidable team.

 

If JD opts out, then the FA class of 2019 will be stupid

 

JD Martinez

Chris Sale

Rick Porcello

Xander Bogaerts

Brock Holt

 

The only extra cash coming off the books is the Panda contract ($13 mil as there is a $5 mil buyout). Subtracting the guys above with the arb projections and adding in Panda will be $85 mil give or take.

 

I think you let Holt walk, because we are going to see precedent for super subs this offseason and it will likely be pretty lucrative for a guy like Holt. If he replicates his 2018, he could be staring at $8-$9 mil per annum with a team that wants to pay for his versatility

 

Chris Sale is probably gonna go elsewhere, no matter how good his 2019 is. I doubt the sox would be willing to pay the price for him if he kills it because of the shoulder concerns and they won't want to re-sign him if he is hurt or ineffective

 

That leaves the $85 mil to re-sign JD, Xander, Porcello AND pay Mookie in his walk year and pay for some of the other arb guys coming down the pipe. Figure $15 mil of that figure will go to arb raises. That leaves $70 mil and you cannot re-sign all 3 of those guys for $70 mil. If Xander repeats his 2018, he will be a $28-$30 mil per annum player. JD will likely cash in above the $25 mil per annum mark. Porcello will probably be around $25 mil as well just due to his durability. You're looking at losing your utility guy/2b, your ace and then having trouble re-signing JD, Xander and Porcello. My guess is the sox take Eovaldi this offseason, allow Porcello to walk and your 2020 starting rotation will look like:

 

Price

ERod

Eovaldi

Johnson?

Velasquez?

 

That rotation suddenly doesn't strike fear in other teams as much as it has and you still have the prospect of re-signing Willie Mays reincarnated the following offseason. Without the ability to fill the spots vacated, you will need to spend to replace Holt as well. This is how the house of cards crumbles

[moonslav59]

If JD opts out, then the FA class of 2019 will be stupid

 

JD Martinez

Chris Sale

Rick Porcello

Xander Bogaerts

Brock Holt

 

The only extra cash coming off the books is the Panda contract ($13 mil as there is a $5 mil buyout). Subtracting the guys above with the arb projections and adding in Panda will be $85 mil give or take.

 

I think you let Holt walk, because we are going to see precedent for super subs this offseason and it will likely be pretty lucrative for a guy like Holt. If he replicates his 2018, he could be staring at $8-$9 mil per annum with a team that wants to pay for his versatility

 

Chris Sale is probably gonna go elsewhere, no matter how good his 2019 is. I doubt the sox would be willing to pay the price for him if he kills it because of the shoulder concerns and they won't want to re-sign him if he is hurt or ineffective

 

That leaves the $85 mil to re-sign JD, Xander, Porcello AND pay Mookie in his walk year and pay for some of the other arb guys coming down the pipe. Figure $15 mil of that figure will go to arb raises. That leaves $70 mil and you cannot re-sign all 3 of those guys for $70 mil. If Xander repeats his 2018, he will be a $28-$30 mil per annum player. JD will likely cash in above the $25 mil per annum mark. Porcello will probably be around $25 mil as well just due to his durability. You're looking at losing your utility guy/2b, your ace and then having trouble re-signing JD, Xander and Porcello. My guess is the sox take Eovaldi this offseason, allow Porcello to walk and your 2020 starting rotation will look like:

 

Price

ERod

Eovaldi

Johnson?

Velasquez?

 

That rotation suddenly doesn't strike fear in other teams as much as it has and you still have the prospect of re-signing Willie Mays reincarnated the following offseason. Without the ability to fill the spots vacated, you will need to spend to replace Holt as well. This is how the house of cards crumbles

 

Losing Porcello's $20.5M may not be a big loss. Losing JD or Sale will be, but we can sign a lesser player to still keep us a contender. We also lose Moreland and Nunez.

 

Let's assume we sign Eovaldi, Pearc and Kelly to 2+ years, and let Porcello and JD walk. You don't think this is a contender?

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. Pearce 1B

5. Devers 3B

7. JBJ CF

8. Pedey/Hernqandez/Quirox/Lin 2B

9. Vaz/Leon

 

SP: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Wright/Johnson/Velazquez/Shawaryn/Groome

RP: Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner/Maddox/Scott/Walden/Feltman

 

Plus, some money left over to sign a 2Bman or pitcher, especially if Henry allows DD to go near $40M over.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

What did you give Sale and what pitcher is Sale in 2020? I highly, highly, highly doubt the sox re-sign Sale. I think they are absolutely content to let him walk. Here is the deal. If Sale runs through the AL like wildfire in 2019, he will be paid a king's ransom. He missed parts of 2018 and 2017 and was toast in the postseason two years in a row. Will the sox want to pony up the Greinke type contract required to sign him? And if 2019 is a disaster for him and he ends up mediocre or injured, why would the Sox want him? I think Sale is gone after 2019

[moonslav59]

What did you give Sale and what pitcher is Sale in 2020? I highly, highly, highly doubt the sox re-sign Sale. I think they are absolutely content to let him walk. Here is the deal. If Sale runs through the AL like wildfire in 2019, he will be paid a king's ransom. He missed parts of 2018 and 2017 and was toast in the postseason two years in a row. Will the sox want to pony up the Greinke type contract required to sign him? And if 2019 is a disaster for him and he ends up mediocre or injured, why would the Sox want him? I think Sale is gone after 2019

 

LLosing JD, Pablo and Porcello's contracts lets us pay for Sale.

[lasitter]

I'm not down-playing Leon. I have been one of his strongest defenders. His intangibles and unmeasurables are off-the-charts.

 

I'd like to keep Vaz & Leon, but I don't think Swihart is anything more than a throw-in to team looking to try anything at catcher and not looking for a 2019 ring... like Seattle.

 

So here's a few questions about the value of our three catchers:

 

Isn't Swi at least as good with the bat as the other two? What might he do if he had more PAs?

 

Swi can play left field. Isn't it nice to have an extra outfielder like that? My impression was that he was a heck of a lot better in the OF than Hanley ...

 

Vas has the best gun for steals of the three, or does he?

 

Catcher is a major injury prone position, or seems to have been, for us. And for concussion injuries too. Having an extra catcher in these situations is a great luxury.

 

Doesn't being able to pinch hit in a catcher's spot give us offensive flexibility, especially at a position where some people are hitting below the Mendoza line?

 

None of these guys are costing us that much. I would argue against dealing them unless it brought something we really needed ...

[moonslav59]

So here's a few questions about the value of our three catchers:

 

Isn't Swi at least as good with the bat as the other two? What might he do if he had more PAs?

 

Swi can play left field. Isn't it nice to have an extra outfielder like that? My impression was that he was a heck of a lot better in the OF than Hanley ...

 

Vas has the best gun for steals of the three, or does he?

 

Catcher is a major injury prone position, or seems to have been, for us. And for concussion injuries too. Having an extra catcher in these situations is a great luxury.

 

Doesn't being able to pinch hit in a catcher's spot give us offensive flexibility, especially at a position where some people are hitting below the Mendoza line?

 

None of these guys are costing us that much. I would argue against dealing them unless it brought something we really needed ...

 

Swihart's bat is not proven to be good or better than Vaz, but he certainly has not proven a good enough bat (or glove) to play in OF, 1B or 3B.

Edited November 9, 2018 by moonslav59

[lasitter]

I thought he did better with the bat this year, just simple stats, than the other two. Was it my imagination, or did I see him play LF in Fenway before?

[lasitter]

His career slash is .256 / .314 / .678. Vaz: .246 / .296 / .632. Leon just .226 / .288 / .626. He might do better with a bit more playing time.

[lasitter]

I love Vaz, but when he was out with that broken finger, I was really glad for another option.

[lasitter]

I think the other catchers only have the option of DH as another playing position.

[dgalehouse]

Just talked to the surgeon. I will need surgery once the acute diverticulitis is gone.

 

It's probably for the best to have the surgery this year, as this hospital stay made me reach my deductible.

 

My $6K max out of pocket is going to be met, for sure.

 

Thanks again to everyone for all the kind thoughts.

 

Get well soon , man.

[Dojji]

I thought he did better with the bat this year, just simple stats, than the other two. Was it my imagination, or did I see him play LF in Fenway before?

Allow me to clarify moonslav's point: Swihart's bat is not sufficiently better to actually justify a spot on the roster when we have two championship-proven defensive catchers ahead of him.

 

As for Swihart's utility... he lost the opportunity to get a job on that basis the second the Red Sox re-signed Eduardo Nunez. You only have so many openings for multirole benchies, and we have Holt and Nunez already, both of which are superior to Swihart in that role.

 

That kind of leaves the only position Swihart could slide into other than catcher, the backup 1B role... and that would rely on Moreland's bat to be big-league-starter caliber, which would be nice but I don't think we can count on it at this point. Moreland is basically Doug Mientkiewicz right now, you need a proper bat to share the duties with a guy like that, and Swihart is just not that player.

[Dojji]

His career slash is .256 / .314 / .678. Vaz: .246 / .296 / .632. Leon just .226 / .288 / .626. He might do better with a bit more playing time.

 

Both of those are actually better than Swihart's current season line, .229/.285/.613

 

Everyone knows that Vazquez and Leon aren't here for their bats. The fact that Swihart is, and didn't hit better than those two normally would, speaks volumes.

 

I love Vaz, but when he was out with that broken finger, I was really glad for another option.

 

How many chances does this guy need? He's had more playing time than most prospect catchers get before "getting it." At a certain point you have to make the most of your opportunities. At a certain point you're not a prospect anymore. He's done. Move on.

[Kimmi]

Well , certainly no player is worth a ludicrous contract. But there is no consensus on just how much is considered ludicrous. There is a free market out there. People like Bill James don't consider the business side of it. They are just looking at player performance and how it shows up in things like WAR. But they forget that having a winning and exciting team results in much higher attendance, TV ratings , advertising money , concession sales , merchandise revenue, fan interest,public relations and so forth. These things are important. The perennial low budget teams lose out on all of this. They become reduced to being pretty much welfare cases. Wards of MLB. Content to lose , rebuild , lose , look at the empty seats and take the revenue sharing and luxury tax money. The kicker is that their owners are every bit as wealthy as the others.

 

He expressed his point in a pretty over-the-top way. 'The players are NOT the game, any more than the beer vendors are.'

 

He deleted the tweets and the Red Sox quickly distanced themselves from the opinions.

 

Not very smart IMHO

 

I don't think James expressed himself very well, and I don't think he meant it to come out as callously as it did. Certainly, the players are the game, and certainly, you want to put a good product on the field to keep fan interest.

 

That said, I still think his overall point stands.

 

Take Mookie, for instance. If it's going to take a 10 year deal to re-sign him, I'm letting him walk. He can be replaced. Not necessarily by a single player, but with the money it would take to keep him, the Sox can certainly replace his production. And, I'm guessing that the fans would be just as happy if the team continued to be a playoff contender.

[Kimmi]

His view of what a ludicrous contract was weird. Plus, he got his economic theory way wrong.

 

If I knew anything about economic theory, I might have a better response for you.

[Kimmi]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

Yikes Moon.

 

Best wishes to you.

[Dojji]

I don't think James expressed himself very well, and I don't think he meant it to come out as callously as it did. Certainly, the players are the game, and certainly, you want to put a good product on the field to keep fan interest.

 

That said, I still think his overall point stands.

 

Take Mookie, for instance. If it's going to take a 10 year deal to re-sign him, I'm letting him walk. He can be replaced. Not necessarily by a single player, but with the money it would take to keep him, the Sox can certainly replace his production. And, I'm guessing that the fans would be just as happy if the team continued to be a playoff contender.

 

and yet that analysis ignores the very important factor of opportunity cost.

 

Yes, he can be replaced, in theory, Now compare the time, cost and prospects it will take to replace him, with the weighted risk of that 10 year deal. The value balance shifts significantly when you do that, as we should have realized when the opportunity costs of lowballing Mr. Jon Lester came due. That cost was years of lost production from the top of the rotation on the field and additional off the field costs because we were forced to enter a buyers' market looking for new top of the line starting pitching talent, culminating in a ludicrous contract for David Price that it took some absurd heroics on his part for him to finally manage to rise above.

 

Factor opportunity cost in properly, and you have to say that keeping Lester was a far better deal even though by your frankly flawed analysis, Cherington did the right thing.

 

Similarly, the opportunity costs for not paying what the market will bear for generational offensive talent will be significant, and will likely cost more time, money and prospects than simply retaining his services at a fair price would require.

 

Unless the opportunity costs of keeping a player involve blocking a talented cost-controlled replacement you already have in house, or includes a large expected haul of prospects for moving him, honestly I'm inclined to believe that it's frequently better to bet on the bird in the hand.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Dojji

[Kimmi]

I love Vaz, but when he was out with that broken finger, I was really glad for another option.

 

If it were up to me, I'd keep all 3 catchers and give Swihart some more playing time at other positions.

[Northern Star]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

Just saw this. Hope you get fully recovered soon, moonslav.