Where are HOLT and DEVERS

[OH FOY]

RH Batters are hitting.264 against Sabathia this year, LH Batters are hitting, .180 this year. You want runs, and you want them quick, force the Yanks into a BP game, get the crowd out, then go Defense. For me I want Offense first. Don't play passive, play aggressive. Edited October 9, 2018 by OH FOY!

[jung]

RH Batters are hitting.264 against Sabathia this year, LH Batters are hitting, .180 this year.

 

And JBJ is a particularly problematic LH bat. The question IMO is not whether Holt or JD can handle the smallish RF in Yankee stadium but whether Mookie can handle CF for a game. I would say that for one game, Mookie can be just as spectacular, just as special as JBJ. My preference for JD is RF over Holt is twofold. Nunez is barely a fielder of any sort. 3rd is his best field position but he is not more than an emergency 2nd baseman. So I don't mind tossing Nunez at DH. His only field position is 3rd. As for RF, there is no room out there to stretch your legs. But what is the worst thing that happens in Yankee Stadium RF? One of those dink shots into the first row is the worst thing by far that happens in Yankee RF. Is Holt going to reach up and take something at the Wall?...NOPE. Can JD? Yup.

 

JBJ will get his chances later in the game. CC will not be around for more than 5 innings and 4 is just as likely.

[fxkatt]

RH Batters are hitting.264 against Sabathia this year, LH Batters are hitting, .180 this year. You want runs, and you want them quick, force the Yanks into a BP game, get the crowd out, then go Defense. For me I want Offense first.

 

But our most offensive lineup includes extra lefties... who you say are hitting .180 vs Sabathia. I want to go with the righties and JBJ in center... and later, if necessary, switch to our lefty power.

[OH FOY]

Soon as we get the lead and Yanks flip into their BP, bring in JBJ. Hoping it is soon as 2nd inning.

[jung]

But our most offensive lineup includes extra lefties... who you say are hitting .180 vs Sabathia. I want to go with the righties and JBJ in center... and later, if necessary, switch to our lefty power.

 

Except for Holt who actually hits LH pitchers better than he hits RH pitchers. His slugging % is better against RH pitchers. But he plays in Fenway Park. Anybody who bats from the left side can "slug" in Yankee Stadium.

[OH FOY]

Nobody is really wrong or right, its a tough decision, for Mr. Cora. JBJ .185 this year against Lefties. Holt .292 against Lefties, this year. Even Benni is hitting .247 this year against Lefties, nothing special but much better then .185.

On the other side Porcello gets a lot balls that seem to be hard at time to Outfield. Very tough decision.

Edited October 9, 2018 by OH FOY!

[fxkatt]

Except for Holt who actually hits LH pitchers better than he hits RH pitchers. His slugging % is better against RH pitchers. But he plays in Fenway Park. Anybody who bats from the left side can "slug" in Yankee Stadium.

 

Yes, that's why either guy at second is fine with me.

 

Question: what is Angel Hernandez like behind the plate???? becuz he's due there, right.

[mvp 78]

I love our amazing outfield. And the bottom line of this game is to Win by One Run. So, in our minds, defense should be primary. We can always add bats when facing righty relievers.

 

That's fine. JBJ has a nice glove. Just don't wait too long for him to break out. He finished the season decently, but we all now he goes into long cold stretches so it's hard to say "he's due".

[mvp 78]

But our most offensive lineup includes extra lefties... who you say are hitting .180 vs Sabathia. I want to go with the righties and JBJ in center... and later, if necessary, switch to our lefty power.

 

I think a RHB lineup with JBJ in center is probably a good idea. Hard to keep Holt out of the lineup tho.

[SoxnCycles]

Yes, that's why either guy at second is fine with me.

 

Question: what is Angel Hernandez like behind the plate???? becuz he's due there, right.

 

Angel Hernandez will be behind the plate tonight.

Halloween starts early, that is truly frightening.

[mvp 78]

Angel Hernandez will be behind the plate tonight.

Halloween starts early, that is truly frightening.

 

Jesus take the wheel...

[moonslav59]

Jesus take the wheel...

 

I hate that song!

[Bellhorn04]

I've heard that one before.

 

OPS of .830 in this series.

[jung]

Jesus take the wheel...

 

Hard to tell from the ump stats. Hernandez is actually right in the middle of a pack of awful. That is about all I can say for him. His walk rate is not remarkable. His K rate is not remarkable. His deviation from computer is not wildly all over the place.

 

One stat you cannot find or I can't find is the only one that matters to hitters or pitchers...."consistency". Nobody really cares how accurate an ump calls the strike zone. They all care whether they call it the same way in any given game for the whole game. If a ball an inch off the outer edge is going to be a strike, fine. Just make it a strike for the whole game. Now if an ump is calling stuff 6" off the plate a strike that is a different kind of a problem as consistently calling those strikes will not satisfy anybody but pitchers.

 

They are all marginally more likely to call a strike a strike. When they err it is more often than not in calling a ball a strike which of course benefits the battery which already has something of an advantage just because of the way this game was designed. They have the hardest time with strikes that are either at the top or bottom of the zone (calling them balls) and with balls inside and outside (calling them strikes).

 

This consistency factor should not be hard to categorize and spread sheet for people to see and I suspect that we don't get to see it and nobody tries to do it because there are powerful baseball interests that don't want such a public exposure of the lack of consistency even within how one ump calls balls and strikes.

 

I should add that umpire ZE scores have apparently done a good deal to improve ball and strike calls according to the Umps union and MLB (taken with hefty amounts of salt). However, the dif between the best of them and the worst of them according to ZE scoring as about 10 missed ball/strike calls a game. That is more than 1 an inning and is somewhat disappointing as it represents not an absolute number but the dif between the best and worst umpires calling balls and strikes.

Edited October 9, 2018 by jung

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ had a double, 2 walks and 2 runs last night.

[moonslav59]

JBJ had a double, 2 walks and 2 runs last night.

 

vs LHPs, I prefer Pearce and Holt, but we could play JBJ and keep both. I don't mind benching Devers vs LHPs or one from Nunez or Kinsler.

[fxkatt]

They have the hardest time with strikes that are either at the top or bottom of the zone (calling them balls) and with balls inside and outside (calling them strikes). Jung

 

Well, I'm relieved about Hernandez being perhaps middle-of-road behind the plate. I see that he has been very good to Sabathia, however.... 31 innings and 5 runs given up (ERA around 1.75)

 

I agree with your above words. This is exactly what I see in games. Too many strikes on the corners, too few at the top--and perhaps at the bottom.

[moonslav59]

Hard to tell from the ump stats. Hernandez is actually right in the middle of a pack of awful. That is about all I can say for him. His walk rate is not remarkable. His K rate is not remarkable. His deviation from computer is not wildly all over the place.

 

One stat you cannot find or I can't find is the only one that matters to hitters or pitchers...."consistency". Nobody really cares how accurate an ump calls the strike zone. They all care whether they call it the same way in any given game for the whole game. If a ball an inch off the outer edge is going to be a strike, fine. Just make it a strike for the whole game. Now if an ump is calling stuff 6" off the plate a strike that is a different kind of a problem as consistently calling those strikes will not satisfy anybody but pitchers.

 

They are all marginally more likely to call a strike a strike. When they err it is more often than not in calling a ball a strike which of course benefits the battery which already has something of an advantage just because of the way this game was designed. They have the hardest time with strikes that are either at the top or bottom of the zone (calling them balls) and with balls inside and outside (calling them strikes).

 

This consistency factor should not be hard to categorize and spread sheet for people to see and I suspect that we don't get to see it and nobody tries to do it because there are powerful baseball interests that don't want such a public exposure of the lack of consistency even within how one ump calls balls and strikes.

 

Great post. You can bet teams know what calls some umps get wrong and try to pitch "around" it.

[mvp 78]

JBJ had a double, 2 walks and 2 runs last night.

 

Padding his stats in when a game didn't matter!

[mvp 78]

OPS of .830 in this series.

 

So then he "isn't" due to break out.

[Bellhorn04]

So then he "isn't" due to break out.

 

Exactly. He's been Steady Eddie for months now.

[fxkatt]

Padding his stats in when a game didn't matter!

 

Are you implying that Holt's post-season record needs an asterisk? (ha ha)

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ

 

July .801

Aug .827

Sept .826

ALDS .830

[moonslav59]

Padding his stats in when a game didn't matter!

 

It was just 3-0 when JBJ walked in the 4th and later scored.

 

Did you feel the game was over at that time?

[moonslav59]

JBJ

 

July .801

Aug .827

Sept .826

ALDS .830

 

That's probably his longest consistent stretch of his career.

 

(He was also 1.216 his last 6 games of June and .851 his last 14 games of June)

[Bellhorn04]

Plus removing him from the outfield right now is probably not the best idea...

[moonslav59]

Plus removing him from the outfield right now is probably not the best idea...

 

Watching Gardner run down all those long shots last night showed the importance of great CF defense in Yankee Stadium (although Betts in CF is not a bad thing either).

[moonslav59]

JBJ is at .851 since June 24th, not counting the playoffs.

 

He's at .793 since May 20th.

 

[jung]

Great post. You can bet teams know what calls some umps get wrong and try to pitch "around" it.

 

There is a chart from Hardball Times titled Strikes vs Average (per game) 2017 season.

 

it is a box-plot of specific game ball and strike calls. It is really a struggle to pull data even from this box-plot and honestly, it shouldn't be this way. But this box-plot is specifically about consistency. It shows that for the 2017 season Laz Diaz and Gary Davis called the most consistent strike zones at least using the games recorded. it also shows Hernandez calling slightly more strikes than balls when compared to other major league umps. It also shows Hernandez as having the widest range ...meaning he is or was in 2017 about the least consistent ump in MLB.

 

Now here is the kicker and to me one of the maddening aspects of this topic. MLB and the Umps union would likely argue that:

- Zone Evaluation is improving all of them (probably true to some extent).

- that while a guy like Hernandez shows a pretty high degree of inconsistency in his ball and strike calls he is not wildly calling more strikes than balls.

- Hernandez is leaning more toward strikes than balls but is nowhere near the ends of the range either way

 

And therefore (TA-DAAA......Hurray) Hernandez is not really effecting game outcomes. That is what MLB would argue. I however would argue that there is absolutely NOTHING more frustrating to both hitters and pitchers than an ump that is just all over the map. Inconsistency DOES affect outcomes because nobody playing knows what the f*** is going on!

 

In case you are wondering nobody but nobody charted is as consistently INCONSISTENT as Hernandez. Paul Emmel is close but Hernandez is perfection personified as it relates to his inconsistency and his ability to screw up balls as easily as strikes while calling slightly more strikes than balls. Hernandez is so consistently inconsistent that if you told me somebody could produce numbers like his I would have called you a liar. Its uncanny.

 

Every other GD stat and chart I found literally measures the wrong things!!!! The one I am referencing here is the only one that speaks to issues that truly drive game action and player performance at least that I have found. Fangraphs has it loaded at their site as well but it is a piece and chart provided by "The Hardball Times".

Edited October 9, 2018 by jung

[mvp 78]

It was just 3-0 when JBJ walked in the 4th and later scored.

 

Did you feel the game was over at that time?

 

Definitely. Sox would have won 3-1 if they never swung the bat again.