Wright Conundrum

[jacksonianmarch]

The issue with Wright is that if he doesn’t have it one day, he’s true BP. Pitchers with great stuff can gut through an appearance of their stuff is off, but a knuckleballer is throwing BP if it isn’t tumbling. If Wright is leaned on as your middle relief guy, I foresee him costing you a game in rather epic fashion.

[Dojji]

Playoff roster as I see it

 

C: Leon

1B: Pearce

2B: Kinsler

SS: Bogaerts

3B: Devers

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Mookie

DH: JD

 

Bench IF: Nunez

Bench IF/OF: Holt

Bench 1B: Moreland

Bench C: Vazquez

 

That leaves 12 pitching spots

 

Sale

Price

Porcello

Eovaldi

 

 

Then for 7 relievers:

 

Kimbrel

Brazier

Velazquez

Barnes

Wright

E-Rod

Workman

 

If you put Swihart on the team, you take either Workman or Moreland off, Honestly I value those two players above Swihart's current level of play, although he is worth keeping around to see if he can take another step forward next season.

 

I do want Workman on the roster though because he's shown a very nice knack for coming in with RISP and leaving with no runs scored. I think he's a potential setup man in the making and I think we'll appreciate having him if we do.

[OH FOY]

Houston used Starters out of their Bullpen last year, wouldn't shock me if Cora uses same formula.

[Bellhorn04]

If Wright is leaned on as your middle relief guy, I foresee him costing you a game in rather epic fashion.

 

What kind of epic fashion, Nostredamus? Cora isn't going to leave him in there all day like he might if it was a regular season game.

[Kimmi]

Leon handles Wright just fine, but I think Vazquez cracks the playoff roster anyway. Swihart didn't do a good enough job swinging the bat this year to justify a place on the playoff roster over our 2 defensive specialists. With no real offensive standouts, picking up the 2 best gloves makes sense to me.

 

Last I heard, Cora was leaning towards having all 3 catchers on the roster.

[Kimmi]

I think Eovaldi goes to BP.

 

Last I heard, Eovaldi will be available in the pen for Game 1, then is likely the Game 4 starter in the ALDS.

[Kimmi]

The issue with Wright is that if he doesn’t have it one day, he’s true BP. Pitchers with great stuff can gut through an appearance of their stuff is off, but a knuckleballer is throwing BP if it isn’t tumbling. If Wright is leaned on as your middle relief guy, I foresee him costing you a game in rather epic fashion.

 

Wright needs to come into a clean inning, and Cora needs to have him on a very short leash. Wright will be fine.

[moonslav59]

That seems OK. Your original statement of 2-4 innings 2-3 times included a scenario of using him for 4 innings 3 times.

 

Where did I say that?

 

My first post said:

\

Game 1: Sale 6, Wright 2-3, Kimbrel 0-1

Game 2: Price 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Day Off

Game 3: Porcello 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Game 4: Eovaldi 5, Wright 3-4, Kimbrel 0-1

Game Off

Game 5: Sale 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

 

I think I may have said "2-4 innings three times" on another thread, but if i did, I wasn't thinking it would be a full 4 IP three times.

 

Anyways, it's more about pitches throw than IP.

 

Edited September 23, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Where did I say that?

 

moon, you said '2-4 innings 2-3 times' on the previous page on this thread.

[moonslav59]

All forms of wear and tear count. Wright's knee was surgically repaired last year. As we found out this year with Eddie, knees matter.

 

If he's in the bullpen, I think it makes sense to use him in inning-plus relief, but I think it's going to be more important to have Wright ready to go in the Bronson Arroyo role, able to come in and replace a starter at a moment's notice, than it is to try to abuse his mystical knuckleball powers over the course of a series.

 

Besides, Wright is not one of my top 3 relief options, those honors go to Kimbrel, Brazier and Workman. Workman can go 1+ innings but has also evolved into the guy you bring in to strand baserunners, and he's been very good at it this year. Workman to finish the inning and maybe pitch another one, then turn a clean inning over to Wright or Velazquez, sounds like a strategy that works.

 

As for bringing Wright into high leverage innings... eh. He's good, but the knuckleball can be a very inconsistent pitch to rely on in high leverage situations so I'd rather keep Wright in reserve than try to plot out a baseball playoff series as if it was a dance routine..

 

Wright would have come back as a starter, if we needed him. He actually started this season as a starter. I think you are over-blowing his injury history and his current level of fragility.

 

Wright is certainly a top 3 RP'er right now, since Barnes is still recovering from an injury.

 

Immediately after returning from this year's injury he gave us:

 

Day 1: 1 IP

Day 2: 1 IP

Day 7: 2 IP

 

From Sept 12-16, he gave us this:

Day 1: 1 IP

Day 3: 1 IP

Day 5: 1 IP

 

He just gave us 3 IP on Sept 20th.

 

It looks like they are working up his IP slowly. He only had 38 IP in that 3 IP game. he had 23, 24 and 30 in three of his 1 IP games.

 

I do not think giving us 35-45 pitches three times with 2 full days rest between each outing is pushing our luck.

 

Right now, I trust Wright more than any RP'er not named Kimbrel.

 

Brasier has done a fine job, but the sample size is small. (I will not argue with anyone placing Brasier over Wright.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

The issue with Wright is that if he doesn’t have it one day, he’s true BP. Pitchers with great stuff can gut through an appearance of their stuff is off, but a knuckleballer is throwing BP if it isn’t tumbling. If Wright is leaned on as your middle relief guy, I foresee him costing you a game in rather epic fashion.

 

I totally disagree. All pitchers have games where they just don't have it. Wright has no more of these than others, and in fact, he has less.

 

One thing in his favor, I believe we can know sooner whether Wright "has it" or not and yank him earlier than other types of pitchers.

[moonslav59]

If you put Swihart on the team, you take either Workman or Moreland off, Honestly I value those two players above Swihart's current level of play, although he is worth keeping around to see if he can take another step forward next season.

 

With 5 days off before game 1 of the playoffs and then a play 2- 1 off, play 2, 1 off, play 1 format, we don't need 12 pitchers. We can use each RP'er 3-4 and maybe even 5 times, if needed for 1 IP. Those who go 2-3 IP can go 2-3 times in this 5 game series format. If needed, we can also use a starter in game 5.

 

IMO, with such weak hitting catchers, having a 3rd catcher makes more sense than having Velazquez (or Workman) as our 12th pitcher.

[moonslav59]

moon, you said '2-4 innings 2-3 times' on the previous page on this thread.

 

I was thinking that implied 3-4 IP 2 times or 2-3 IP 3 times, not 4 IP 3 times, even though that could be assumed the way I worded it.

 

If he can give us a 38 pitch 3 inning outing like his last game, I could see him doing that 3 times, but that is pushing the limits.

 

We're talking the playoffs, though. I recall bringing Pedro in a game in relief to go several innings, because we needed it.

[Dojji]

I think getting 3 innings out of a modern day RP is always pushing the limits.

 

If you're getting more IP from one reliever than there are games in the series, you're probably overusing him.

[moonslav59]

I think getting 3 innings out of a modern day RP is always pushing the limits.

 

If you're getting more IP from one reliever than there are games in the series, you're probably overusing him.

 

He has been a starter much of his career. It's not like we need to "stretch him out".

 

I realize he is not Wakefield. He throws harder than Wake did.

 

Did you know that in 2015, he was used like this...

 

June 4: 6 IP

June 7: 3.1 IP

June 11: 2.2 IP

June 14: 2 IP

June 19: 1 IP

June 20: 0.2 IP

 

From 6/4 to 6.11 (8 days- the 5 game playoffs are in 7 days), he pitched 6 IP, 3.1 IP and 2.2 IP.

 

[moonslav59]

I think getting 3 innings out of a modern day RP is always pushing the limits.

 

If you're getting more IP from one reliever than there are games in the series, you're probably overusing him.

 

There are countless examples of managers using starters in long relief once the playoffs arise. yes, except for Andrew Miller and wade davis, you rarely see a manager use a RP for multiple innings several times in one series, but it does happen.

[illinoisredsox]

Playoff roster as I see it

 

C: Leon

1B: Pearce

2B: Kinsler

SS: Bogaerts

3B: Devers

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Mookie

DH: JD

 

Bench IF: Nunez

Bench IF/OF: Holt

Bench 1B: Moreland

Bench C: Vazquez

 

That leaves 12 pitching spots

 

Sale

Price

Porcello

Eovaldi

 

 

Then for 7 relievers:

 

Kimbrel

Brazier

Velazquez

Barnes

Wright

E-Rod

Workman

 

If you put Swihart on the team, you take either Workman or Moreland off, Honestly I value those two players above Swihart's current level of play, although he is worth keeping around to see if he can take another step forward next season.

 

I do want Workman on the roster though because he's shown a very nice knack for coming in with RISP and leaving with no runs scored. I think he's a potential setup man in the making and I think we'll appreciate having him if we do.

 

Nice work, but you only have 24 guys listed, so Swihart could be on with no other "decision" to be made in the pen.

 

Not sure I agree with Velazquez. I don't see him giving you anything that ERod or Eovaldi can't give you out if the pen, and realistically, he's been doing a Houdini act most of the season.

 

I think you will see Kelly in that slot; despite his woes, he at least has the potential to get you out of a jam (and yes, he is just as likely to throw gas on the fire, I get that); Velazquez just doesn't have that type of stuff.

[notin]

It is amazing how many people want Kelly off the playoff roster in favor of Lin or Swihart or Wright or Workman or Velasquez.

 

Kelly is going, folks. Book it..

 

Moreland is too...

[Maxbialystock]

All forms of wear and tear count. Wright's knee was surgically repaired last year. As we found out this year with Eddie, knees matter.

 

If he's in the bullpen, I think it makes sense to use him in inning-plus relief, but I think it's going to be more important to have Wright ready to go in the Bronson Arroyo role, able to come in and replace a starter at a moment's notice, than it is to try to abuse his mystical knuckleball powers over the course of a series.

 

Besides, Wright is not one of my top 3 relief options, those honors go to Kimbrel, Brazier and Workman. Workman can go 1+ innings but has also evolved into the guy you bring in to strand baserunners, and he's been very good at it this year. Workman to finish the inning and maybe pitch another one, then turn a clean inning over to Wright or Velazquez, sounds like a strategy that works.

 

As for bringing Wright into high leverage innings... eh. He's good, but the knuckleball can be a very inconsistent pitch to rely on in high leverage situations so I'd rather keep Wright in reserve than try to plot out a baseball playoff series as if it was a dance routine..

 

Several problems with your approach--

 

1. Yes, a knee issue, but he has been fine since he came back. Besides, no proposed use of him as a reliever is any better than the others. So, yes, the knee could go, but it's not a tiebreaker on how to use him.

 

2. No, his knuckler, since he came back, has not suddenly disappeared. In fact, he has been by far the most reliable pitcher on the team, including Sale. He's good for 1 inning or 3 innings. Granted, small sample size since he returned, but even before the DH time he was pretty good. Try these numbers on for size. He's gone 50 innings and given up 15 runs, season to date. It you take out just one game, the disaster vs. Seattle when he gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings, he has gone 46.2 innings and given up 5 runs, which converts to an ERA of less than 1 for the other 16 games he has pitched in. And you have him as the 4th best guy in the bullpen. However, that does explain why you have no idea how to use him or what he can do. Did you not know, for example, he has actually started games and done well?

 

3. Ready to go at an instant's notice? Are you nuts? First you say he's fragile and can barely manage. But having him ready to go at an instant's notice means keeping him warmed up in the bullpen. The only time managers can have guys ready now is when they are sure the starter (or the reliever) on the mound is about due to come out. So they have guys warming up in advance, almost always in the late innings.

 

4. Dance routine? What the heck does that mean?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Nice work, but you only have 24 guys listed, so Swihart could be on with no other "decision" to be made in the pen.

 

Not sure I agree with Velazquez. I don't see him giving you anything that ERod or Eovaldi can't give you out if the pen, and realistically, he's been doing a Houdini act most of the season.

 

I think you will see Kelly in that slot; despite his woes, he at least has the potential to get you out of a jam (and yes, he is just as likely to throw gas on the fire, I get that); Velazquez just doesn't have that type of stuff.

 

I agree. Kelly over LAZ.

[Maxbialystock]

The issue with Wright is that if he doesn’t have it one day, he’s true BP. Pitchers with great stuff can gut through an appearance of their stuff is off, but a knuckleballer is throwing BP if it isn’t tumbling. If Wright is leaned on as your middle relief guy, I foresee him costing you a game in rather epic fashion.

 

Really? Epic? Wright has made 17 appearances this year, pitched 50 innings, and been tagged for 15 earns runs. In one of those 16 games, the disaster vs. Seattle, he gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings (it was a start). If you toss that 1 game out, in the other 16 games he went 46.2 innings and gave up 5 earned runs, which means an ERA of under 1 for those 16 appearances.

 

Get back to me when you can name another reliever in MLB this season who can get his ERA under 1 by just throwing out one appearance.

 

I completely agree knucklers can be vulnerable. I believe rain will do it. Maybe cold weather, I don't know. So you could end up being right, but right now the numbers are on Wright's side.

[Maxbialystock]

It is amazing how many people want Kelly off the playoff roster in favor of Lin or Swihart or Wright or Workman or Velasquez.

 

Kelly is going, folks. Book it..

 

Moreland is too...

 

I want him off the roster. I want him deported or rocketed to the moon.

 

But, honestly, you could be right. Last night he looked pretty darn good. Maybe he just needs to use his fast ball less and the other stuff more. I liked that changeup.

[jacksonianmarch]

What kind of epic fashion, Nostredamus? Cora isn't going to leave him in there all day like he might if it was a regular season game.

 

If he’s used, I can foresee a one run lead turn into a 2 run deficit rather quickly

[Bellhorn04]

If he’s used, I can foresee a one run lead turn into a 2 run deficit rather quickly

 

The fact is, he's pitched great this year.

 

In 50 innings he's given up 15 runs, all earned.

 

10 of them were in his 3.1 disaster stint, which was also just before he went on the DL.

 

In his other 46.2 innings he's given up all of 5 runs.

 

You're envisioning bad things for him because you're a Yankee fan.

 

I do the same with all the Yankee relievers...

[Bellhorn04]

As a matter of fact, A.J. Cole and Tommy Kahnle just turned a 2 run lead into a 2 run deficit just like that.

[Slasher9]

As a matter of fact, A.J. Cole and Tommy Kahnle just turned a 2 run lead into a 2 run deficit just like that.

 

Lol. Well played sir.

[moonslav59]

If he’s used, I can foresee a one run lead turn into a 2 run deficit rather quickly

 

There is absolutely no reason to believe there is a bigger chance this happens with Wright vs Barnes, Hembree, Kelly, or any other Sox RP'er not named Kimbrel (or maybe Brasier).

[S5Dewey]

As a matter of fact, A.J. Cole and Tommy Kahnle just turned a 2 run lead into a 2 run deficit just like that.

 

I like that mean streak!! LOL

[Kimmi]

It is amazing how many people want Kelly off the playoff roster in favor of Lin or Swihart or Wright or Workman or Velasquez.

 

Kelly is going, folks. Book it..

 

Moreland is too...

 

I've always been a Kelly supporter, but I've lost my trust in him. I don't want him on the playoff roster. That said, you are probably right that he'll be there. I would rather have the 3rd catcher on the roster than the extra reliever.

 

I have no issues with Moreland being on the playoff roster and no doubt that he will be there.

[Kimmi]

As a matter of fact, A.J. Cole and Tommy Kahnle just turned a 2 run lead into a 2 run deficit just like that.

 

Ouch.