Bogie the Quiet performer . . .

[Kimmi]

But the more interesting thing that's revealed is that the superior hitter gets the edge over the superior defender.

 

Not because stat geeks don't value defense enough. Because you just don't get as many chances to truly make a difference on defense as you do on offense.

 

I prefer great defense over great offense at shortstop, but you have to go with the overall better player.

 

That is my feeling with catcher as well. I'm a big Leon/Vaz fan, but if Swihart ends up being a better overall catcher, then you have to be willing to sacrifice some defense behind the plate as well.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not sure where you're getting a 5 WAR difference over a 5 year period. At any rate, Iggy did not even play in 2014, so perhaps looking at the a 4 year period, or even a 3 year period might make more sense.

 

From 2015 to 2018, Iggy has been worth 7.9 fWAR. Over the same period, Bogaerts has been worth 17 fWAR. That's an average of 2.275 WAR per year.

 

Note: Even going back 5 years, Bogey is an average of 1.84 WAR per year better than Iggy.

 

To be clear: I took the last five years each of them played. For Iggy that period was fron 2013 - now because he lost 2014 due to injury. Since Bogaerts has played in five consecutive years from 2014-now I started in 2014 for him. That's the last five years they've played.

 

Over those past five years in which they've played XBO has a cumulative WAR of 14.0 while Iglesias has a cumulative WAR of 8.0. That's a difference of 6.0 which is an average of 1.2/year (Not 1.0 - my bad).

 

..and we get into the ongoing discussion of the differences between bWAR & fWAR. I do wish one of them would call it something else so we'd always be comparing apple to apples. :-(

 

I have never disputed that Bogaerts is the better all-around SS. My contention is that he's not "vastly superior". IMHO any player who's 1.2 Wins above another when compared to a Replacement Player is better, but not "vastly superior".

 

In this case WAR told me what I already knew, that Bogaerts is the superior hitter and Iggy the superior defensive player. And I'm good with that.

[notin]

I'm not at all surprised that the superior hitter gets the nod over an outstanding defensive player. It's all about our expectations. We expect the defensive player to make all the plays while we're happy if the offensive player is successful ~30% of the time.

 

As to opportunities, if you consider every time a defensive player touches the ball to be an opportunity for an error some players probably do have as many chances to make a difference on defense as on offense.

 

IMO one of the great inequities in baseball is that fans don't value defense enough. Our expectations for defense are much higher than they are for offense. When a player makes a mistake in an AB (doesn't capitalize on a hittable pitch) we ignore it with the attitude of "You can't hit them all". OTOH when a defensive player makes a mistake on a playable ball it goes into the record books as an error. While frequently that error results in a run (or more) being scored by the opponent the hitter gets a "pass' on his mistake, which may have cost the offense a run or more. The important thing there is that while we don't hold a hitter responsible for missing a hittable pitch we do hold the defensive player accountable for his mistakes.

 

The reason the superior offensive player got the nod had nothing to do with expectations. It had the do with Bogaerts being a much better overall player. Period.

 

While many fans do undervalue defense, it has more to do with a lack of available information on the subject and general ignorance due to the way we watch it. Defense is multi-faceted, and this cannot be ascertained by watching TV. But to most fans, I think defense gets measured in two ways: 1. Web Gems vs Errors Test, or 2. The Reputation Test. A lot of people believe a player is a good defender because they are told he is one.

 

And because defense is so hard to evaluate, especially comparatively, many fans do not appreciate its importance..

[Kimmi]

To be clear: I took the last five years each of them played. For Iggy that period was fron 2013 - now because he lost 2014 due to injury. Since Bogaerts has played in five consecutive years from 2014-now I started in 2014 for him. That's the last five years they've played.

 

Over those past five years in which they've played XBO has a cumulative WAR of 14.0 while Iglesias has a cumulative WAR of 8.0. That's a difference of 6.0 which is an average of 1.2/year (Not 1.0 - my bad).

 

..and we get into the ongoing discussion of the differences between bWAR & fWAR. I do wish one of them would call it something else so we'd always be comparing apple to apples. :-(

 

I have never disputed that Bogaerts is the better all-around SS. My contention is that he's not "vastly superior". IMHO any player who's 1.2 Wins above another when compared to a Replacement Player is better, but not "vastly superior".

 

In this case WAR told me what I already knew, that Bogaerts is the superior hitter and Iggy the superior defensive player. And I'm good with that.

 

Since 2015, Iggy has averaged 1.975 WAR per year. That puts him on the borderline between 'role player' and 'solid starter'.

 

Xander has averaged 4.25 WAR per year. That puts him in the 'All Star' category.

 

I'm not going to argue semantics with you about whether that is 'vastly superior' or not, but I can tell you that I have not missed Iggy one bit, even with the issues that we've been having at 3B. And this is coming from someone who values defense as much as you do.

[harmony]

I'm still super high on Devers, no matter what position he ends up at. It sucks he had to learn under the spotlight of a serious championship run, but I'm glad he here and hope he stays here a long long time.

 

Rafael Devers, who has a career OPS+ of 97, posted an OPS+ of 112 in 240 plate appearances as a rookie and an OPS+ of 89 in 432 plate appearances in this second season.

 

Will Middlebrooks posted an OPS+ of 121 in 286 plate appearances as a rookie in 2012 and an OPS+ of 87 in 348 plate appearances in his second season for a cumulative OPS+ of 102 at that point.

 

Of course the big difference is that Devers is three years younger than Middlebrooks was at those stages of their MLB careers.

 

Earlier this season I suggested that Devers could be a future All Star or the second coming of Philadelphia third baseman Maikel Franco, who like his fellow Dominican was a Top 20 prospect on a Baseball America preseason list. I suspect Franco, not Middlebrooks, remains the floor for Devers.

[notin]

To be clear: I took the last five years each of them played. For Iggy that period was fron 2013 - now because he lost 2014 due to injury. Since Bogaerts has played in five consecutive years from 2014-now I started in 2014 for him. That's the last five years they've played.

 

Over those past five years in which they've played XBO has a cumulative WAR of 14.0 while Iglesias has a cumulative WAR of 8.0. That's a difference of 6.0 which is an average of 1.2/year

 

I think it’s wrong to give Iglesias a free pass for the year he was injured. One of the biggest criticisms of him is his durability,which you’re negating that way. It would be one thing if he missed the year for say, being hit by a pitch or some other freak accident out of his control. But it wasn’t....

[oldtimer]

I prefer great defense over great offense at shortstop, but you have to go with the overall better player.

 

That is my feeling with catcher as well. I'm a big Leon/Vaz fan, but if Swihart ends up being a better overall catcher, then you have to be willing to sacrifice some defense behind the plate as well.

 

I'm gradually coming to the same conclusion as our regular catchers are not hitting at the ML level. Swihart is showing up pretty well offensively since being given more opportunities. If we wanted to go to the FA market for a replacement for either or both of our current catchers it might cost a bundle to land a superior talent so Swihart remains a solid option.

[moonslav59]

But the more interesting thing that's revealed is that the superior hitter gets the edge over the superior defender.

 

Not because stat geeks don't value defense enough. Because you just don't get as many chances to truly make a difference on defense as you do on offense.

 

But, a .290 vs a .240 hitter is not much of a difference either. It's 1 hit more out of 20 PAs. It's 30 more hits out of 600 PAs. If a great defender gets 30 less hits but makes 40 more plays, couldn't one say the defense outweighed the offense?

 

(Note: perhaps only the SS position allows for a 30-50 play swing between a great ranged SS and a poor one.)

[Kimmi]

I'm gradually coming to the same conclusion as our regular catchers are not hitting at the ML level. Swihart is showing up pretty well offensively since being given more opportunities. If we wanted to go to the FA market for a replacement for either or both of our current catchers it might cost a bundle to land a superior talent so Swihart remains a solid option.

 

I really like the idea of having Swihart as our 3rd catcher utility player. That allows Cora to start Leon/Vaz behind the plate, where they are stronger than Swihart, but then to pinch hit for them in key situations, without the concern of not having a catcher in case of injury.

[moonslav59]

I really like the idea of having Swihart as our 3rd catcher utility player. That allows Cora to start Leon/Vaz behind the plate, where they are stronger than Swihart, but then to pinch hit for them in key situations, without the concern of not having a catcher in case of injury.

 

That's been my point all along. Plus, Swihart's numbers with the pen are much better than with the starters.

[Kimmi]

That's been my point all along. Plus, Swihart's numbers with the pen are much better than with the starters.

 

We are on the same page on most things. {fist bump}

[moonslav59]

We are on the same page on most things. {fist bump}

 

There is very little we disagree on.

[Bellhorn04]

But, a .290 vs a .240 hitter is not much of a difference either. It's 1 hit more out of 20 PAs. It's 30 more hits out of 600 PAs. If a great defender gets 30 less hits but makes 40 more plays, couldn't one say the defense outweighed the offense?

 

(Note: perhaps only the SS position allows for a 30-50 play swing between a great ranged SS and a poor one.)

 

If you look at the WAR calculations, offense accounts for a significantly larger portion. That's why Xander has a big edge on Iggy, or on JBJ.

 

I'm assuming that the WAR calculations have this right. If they don't have this important premise right, they're not much good, that's for sure...

[OH FOY]

Ozzie Smith must have been the greatest SS that ever played the game. I'll take Bogaerts 100 out of 100 times over Iglesias at SS. Without a doubt. 2 years from now might be the best. Both on Defense and Offense. Iglesias will never get that good. He's a one dimensional ball player. That's it. Edited September 9, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Bogaerts is vastly superior to Iglesias. You don't Trade Young Franchise SS's. He got Traded quickly. Edited September 9, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Nobody here has seen the improvement in X-Mans Defense. Its unreal, how good he has become. From what I saw when he was in Portland. He's improved leaps and bounds. And getting better.

[S5Dewey]

Bogaerts is vastly superior to Iglesias. You don't Trade Young Franchise SS's. He got Traded quickly.

 

You're probably right. Nobody wanted Iglesias... except Dombrowski, to replace their SS during a pennant drive who was out for a PED extension. And when that player came back he was moved to the OF while Iggy remained at SS. But what does Dombrowski know, anyway??

[OH FOY]

That was then this is now.

[OH FOY]

You're probably right. Nobody wanted Iglesias... except Dombrowski, to replace their SS during a pennant drive who was out for a PED extension. And when that player came back he was moved to the OF while Iggy remained at SS. But what does Dombrowski know, anyway??

 

Who was their SS, I forgot before the Trade.

[S5Dewey]

Since 2015, Iggy has averaged 1.975 WAR per year.

 

Xander has averaged 4.25 WAR per year.

 

 

Not according to Baseball Reference.

 

I'm assuming those numbers came from Fangraphs. Mine came from Baseball Reference. Mine are as valuable as yours and yours are as valuable as mine.

 

As I said earlier, it would be nice if one of those sources would (at least) change the name of their calculation so we could always be comparing apples to apples.

 

It's very nice that you haven't missed Iggy. You must enjoy that revolving door we've had at 3B.

[moonslav59]

If you look at the WAR calculations, offense accounts for a significantly larger portion. That's why Xander has a big edge on Iggy, or on JBJ.

 

I'm assuming that the WAR calculations have this right. If they don't have this important premise right, they're not much good, that's for sure...

 

I'm not trying to claim Iggy's defense even things up with Bogey, but I do think it's closer than many like to admit.

 

I've also always claimed it wasn't an either or choice. We could have kept both by moving Bogey, and we still could for next year, but I admit there is a zero chance it happens.

[moonslav59]

Who was their SS, I forgot before the Trade.

 

 

Johnny Peralta.

 

I believe he got hurt, and then they made the trade.

[OH FOY]

Not according to Baseball Reference.

 

I'm assuming those numbers came from Fangraphs. Mine came from Baseball Reference. Mine are as valuable as yours and yours are as valuable as mine.

 

As I said earlier, it would be nice if one of those sources would (at least) change the name of their calculation so we could always be comparing apples to apples.

 

It's very nice that you haven't missed Iggy. You must enjoy that revolving door we've had at 3B.

 

What revolving door. Devers is a kid. He make mistakes, sure, but your not going to give him a chance.

[OH FOY]

Johnny Peralta.

 

I believe he got hurt, and then they made the trade.

 

Thanks, I just think Iggy has hit his peak, you wont see much better, Defensively or on Offense.

[moonslav59]

Not according to Baseball Reference.

 

BR has these average WAR numbers since 2015:

 

3.5 Bogey (4.1 per 650 PAs)

 

1.7 Iggy (2.8 per 650 PAs)

 

If you add to the equation not signing Pablo had we kept Iggy, it's no brainer choice.

[moonslav59]

Thanks, I just think Iggy has hit his peak, you wont see much better, Defensively or on Offense.

 

He's only 28. His defense should be fine for the length of his next deal.

 

No matter: he ain't coming here.

[OH FOY]

You're probably right. Nobody wanted Iglesias... except Dombrowski, to replace their SS during a pennant drive who was out for a PED extension. And when that player came back he was moved to the OF while Iggy remained at SS. But what does Dombrowski know, anyway??

 

You use Evans because he was an unreal Defensive Right Fielder, but he a real good Offensive threat too. He wasn't a 1 Dimensional player. Great Players do both, not just one thing.

[S5Dewey]

What revolving door. Devers is a kid. He make mistakes, sure, but your not going to give him a chance.

 

Players with more than 25 innings @ 3B

 

2014

Bogaerts (44)

Middlebrooks (62)

[7 others]

 

2015

Holt (33)

Sandoval (123)

[6 others]

 

2016

Aaron Hill (42)

T. Shaw (105)

[7 others]

 

2017

Devers (56)

Marrero (52)

Sandoval (29)

[7 others]

 

2018

Devers (102)

Nunes (41)

[4 others]

In only two years since 2014 have the Sox had the same player get the majority of the innings at 3b. That was Devers in 2017 & 2018 and he's since been sent down. I'm not the one not giving Devers a chance. Blame that on the RS FO.

 

Since Iggy came back from his "lost season" due to an injury he's averaged 128 games per season. That'll go up a little this month.

[OH FOY]

You looking for argument? Is that what your about.

[S5Dewey]

You looking for argument? Is that what your about.

 

Not at all. You asked what revolving door. There it is.