Dave Dombrowski

[notin]

The Red Sox have made the playoffs 10 times since JH bought the team and won it all 4 times - 40%. Luck or strength?

 

But in two of those titles, they weren’t even the best team in the AL East. Would you say there was no luck involved there?

[Bellhorn04]

But in two of those titles, they weren’t even the best team in the AL East. Would you say there was no luck involved there?

 

Isn't it just one of the titles - 2004?

[Slasher9]

4 of the 5 Astros games were on the table in the 8th. The Dodgers could have won games 2 and 5 with a break here and there. "The inches we need are everywhere" ;-) But they are inches.

 

on the flip side...we were a couple breaks here and there from sweeping every game of the postseason 24-0.

[Dojji]

The Red Sox have made the playoffs 10 times since JH bought the team and won it all 4 times - 40%. Luck or strength?

 

Bit of both. Henry is an excellent owner and he has done a fantastic job of selecting front office personnel. He's even done a pretty okay job of taking personal responsibility when things go wrong for the team, which is pretty danged rare among owners.

 

Most great teams stay great because of strong ownership. Most bad teams stay bad because of weak, indifferent or cash strapped ownership. It really comes down to that for me. Henry, an excellent owner, has created excellent teams. He deserves to cash in on that, and I hope he's satisfied with his share of the take. Quality tends to pay for itself.

[Kimmi]

No MLB baseball team is ever going to go undefeated, or even remotely close to it. The odds on any baseball game are relatively small . There is a reason for that. And it truly is a game of inches. But the breaks go both ways. A team as dominant , over a long season , as this year's Red Sox is not lucky. It is a matter of ability. They were clearly the best team , and they won it all.

 

Just because a team is good doesn't mean that they can't be lucky as well. The Red Sox were indeed a great team. They were also lucky to some extent. That's not to take anything away from how great they were. Any team that wins the World Series needs some good fortune to swing their way.

 

IMO, the Sox were not clearly the best team. They were the team with the best record, but not necessarily the best team. IMO, the Astros were the best team this season. We outplayed them in the playoffs, and took advantage of whatever good breaks we had.

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox have made the playoffs 10 times since JH bought the team and won it all 4 times - 40%. Luck or strength?

 

Both.

[a700hitter]

100% randomness? No. But probably more randomness than actual skill.

 

In short series, randomness is king.

This is truly silly, but to each his/her own.

[a700hitter]

I would have to disagree with you there Bell.

 

I think the favorite team, at best, would be at about 55% chance of winning each series, while the weakest team would be at about 45%.

 

That puts the favorite team at about 16-17% chance of winning the whole thing, as opposed to the weakest team having about a 9% chance.

 

That's not much different than the flat out even 1 out of 8 chance of 12.5%.

Betting odds in any sport are not true or accurate probabilities. For example, the slowest horse in a race that has no chance of winning doesn't go off at 1 million to 1. They set the odds in a manner to encourage betting and then as the money comes in on a race or any athletic contest, the odds are adjusted to reflect the distribution of the money bet. They do not reflect an accurate mathematical probability of winning. I am not an odds-maker, and other people like iortiz are more knowledgeable about this aspect of sports, but trying to connect betting odds to mathematical probability is fallacious.

[sk7326]

I look at the playoffs like I do March Madness ... it's likely that a pretty good team will win it all. It's not guaranteed - and there are upsets all the time. It's not guaranteed chalk, like the NBA playoffs. There have been some amazing teams (see 2018 Sox) that have won, and some very meh teams (the 1987 Twins, the 2006 Cardinals) who have won too. After all, it's about playing 1 good month of baseball - and basically all of the teams who make the playoffs are capable of that. It's what makes it fun.

 

I mean - David Ortiz in 2013 and Johnny Damon in 2004 will be remembered for ALCS heroics ... during series they hit a combined 8 for 57. It's why the game is awesome.

[a700hitter]

I look at the playoffs like I do March Madness ... it's likely that a pretty good team will win it all. It's not guaranteed - and there are upsets all the time. It's not guaranteed chalk, like the NBA playoffs. There have been some amazing teams (see 2018 Sox) that have won, and some very meh teams (the 1987 Twins, the 2006 Cardinals) who have won too. After all, it's about playing 1 good month of baseball - and basically all of the teams who make the playoffs are capable of that. It's what makes it fun.

 

I mean - David Ortiz in 2013 and Johnny Damon in 2004 will be remembered for ALCS heroics ... during series they hit a combined 8 for 57. It's why the game is awesome.

As for the 2006 Cardinals, the NY Mets gave away probably 2 games in their playoff series. The Mets were clearly the more talented team, but they played very poorly. It wasn't the result of a couple of lousy bounces. The Mets made some very bad plays and their manager made some very poor decisions.

 

As for the example of Damon and Ortiz, having bad series. It wasn't because the slumps randomly appeared. Pitchers in those series saw that they could be successfully pitched to in a certain manner and they executed the pattern over and over and the hitters took some time to adjust. I will guarantee you that they were not getting them out with fastballs down the middle and they were just randomly getting themselves out.

[sk7326]

As for the 2006 Cardinals, the NY Mets gave away probably 2 games in their playoff series. The Mets were clearly the more talented team, but they played very poorly. It wasn't the result of a couple of lousy bounces. The Mets made some very bad plays and their manager made some very poor decisions.

 

As for the example of Damon and Ortiz, having bad series. It wasn't because the slumps randomly appeared. Pitchers in those series saw that they could be successfully pitched to in a certain manner and they executed the pattern over and over and the hitters took some time to adjust. I will guarantee you that they were not getting them out with fastballs down the middle and they were just randomly getting themselves out.

 

Who said they were being gotten out randomly? Of course teams lose and win for a reason. I've used the term randomness - but I should have restated it ... it's noise in the data.

 

Put another way - since you brought up gambling - there is no doubt that Phil Ivey (or whatever famous poker player you want) is a better poker player than me. If we played a ton of hands, he'd clobber me (assuming I had not busted out by then). But - I'm going to run into a few wins here and there. It might be because he makes a mistake (since he is not perfect), or I make a mistake (since I do at least know something about poker), but most likely it's because you play the percentages but the cards went my way. In horse racing, the long shot only has to win the race once.

 

Given the nature of baseball (the rotating pitchers in particular) - a best of 5/7 is not much more certain (if at all) than single elimination. There is just a lot of variability - much more than any other sport's playoffs. In the micro, there are specific reasons (of course there are) why any single event occurs. There will never be a Super Bowl III in the baseball playoffs.

[a700hitter]

Who said they were being gotten out randomly? Of course teams lose and win for a reason. I've used the term randomness - but I should have restated it ... it's noise in the data.

 

Put another way - since you brought up gambling - there is no doubt that Phil Ivey (or whatever famous poker player you want) is a better poker player than me. If we played a ton of hands, he'd clobber me (assuming I had not busted out by then). But - I'm going to run into a few wins here and there. It might be because he makes a mistake (since he is not perfect), or I make a mistake (since I do at least know something about poker), but most likely it's because you play the percentages but the cards went my way. In horse racing, the long shot only has to win the race once.

 

Given the nature of baseball (the rotating pitchers in particular) - a best of 5/7 is not much more certain (if at all) than single elimination. There is just a lot of variability - much more than any other sport's playoffs. In the micro, there are specific reasons (of course there are) why any single event occurs. There will never be a Super Bowl III in the baseball playoffs.

"Noise in the data" -- I think that is a good description.

[Tedballgame]

on the flip side...we were a couple breaks here and there from sweeping every game of the postseason 24-0.

Sox were also up on Houston in 8th inning of Game 4 last year. With any luck, they could have tied the series and maybe won it in Game 5. That would have changed that season.

[Tedballgame]

It's the totality of it all.

 

108 wins in a division with the Yanks and the Rays.

 

11-3 in the playoffs vs very tough opponents in a league known for great top 4-5 teams.

The Sox were truly the best team in baseball all year, from start to finish. They dominated two, 100 win teams and the Dodgers. The 2018 Red Sox should go down as one of the all time best teams. What a fun year to watch and follow them.

[Elktonnick]

Fortuna Eruditis Favet. The Red Sox were the better prepared of any team they faced

[moonslav59]

Fortuna Eruditis Favet. The Red Sox were the better prepared of any team they faced

 

Most prepared.

Most focused.

Most determined.

Most balanced (pitching, hitting, defense, running).

Best team in MLB.

Best Sox team I have seen.

[Slasher9]

The Sox were truly the best team in baseball all year, from start to finish. They dominated two, 100 win teams and the Dodgers. The 2018 Red Sox should go down as one of the all time best teams. What a fun year to watch and follow them.

 

IN.

[Kimmi]

Fortuna Eruditis Favet. The Red Sox were the better prepared of any team they faced

 

Best prepared for the playoffs, I can agree with.

[sk7326]

The Sox were truly the best team in baseball all year, from start to finish. They dominated two, 100 win teams and the Dodgers. The 2018 Red Sox should go down as one of the all time best teams. What a fun year to watch and follow them.

 

The 2018 Red Sox deserve to be on any of those lists where you'd put the 1976 Reds, the 1998 Yankees, the 1970 Orioles (I'll leave out the 2001 Mariners since they did not win it all, though that was an incredible season on its own terms), any of those old timey Yankees teams. They are unquestionably one of the greatest single season teams in history.

[Dojji]

Best prepared for the playoffs, I can agree with.

 

I keep hearing that from Boston teams. They're better prepared. Partly because Boston teams are in the playoffs A LOT, but it makes you wonder.

 

We all know one Boston franchise more famous than any other for meticulous preparation. Are the other franchises taking lessons from the Bill Belichick school of how to manage a sports franchise? I suppose considering the extended success of the Patriots, you'd either have to be particularly stupid or particularly stubborn not to.

[sk7326]

I keep hearing that from Boston teams. They're better prepared. Partly because Boston teams are in the playoffs A LOT, but it makes you wonder.

 

We all know one Boston franchise more famous than any other for meticulous preparation. Are the other franchises taking lessons from the Bill Belichick school of how to manage a sports franchise? I suppose considering the extended success of the Patriots, you'd either have to be particularly stupid or particularly stubborn not to.

 

possibly in some general ways, but football is its own unicorn (a really short season, few guaranteed deals)

[Bellhorn04]

Everything aligned perfectly for the 2018 Red Sox. You take a team that was close but no cigar 2 years in a row and not losing much from those teams. You add a fantastic manager, a fantastic slugger, and 2 incredibly good deadline acquisitions, and you should be ready to kick some butt.

[Dojji]

Everything aligned perfectly for the 2018 Red Sox. You take a team that was close but no cigar 2 years in a row and not losing much from those teams. You add a fantastic manager, a fantastic slugger, and 2 incredibly good deadline acquisitions, and you should be ready to kick some butt.

 

Let's not pretend we won those playoff series in a walk. Things always look easier after they've been accomplished. Those were some very good teams we humiliated, it's worth noting that although our World Series opponent was probably the weakest team we faced this year, any of the three were at least potentially capable of turning the tables on us

 

Point being the boys needed to execute to get this done, they could make a lot of noise on talent alone, but so could most of their opponents in the playoffs. It was a championship, not a coronation, in other words.

[Kimmi]

I keep hearing that from Boston teams. They're better prepared. Partly because Boston teams are in the playoffs A LOT, but it makes you wonder.

 

We all know one Boston franchise more famous than any other for meticulous preparation. Are the other franchises taking lessons from the Bill Belichick school of how to manage a sports franchise? I suppose considering the extended success of the Patriots, you'd either have to be particularly stupid or particularly stubborn not to.

 

I don't follow football closely enough to make the comparison with Belichick.

 

As far as the Sox go this year, Cora started preparing his players from Day 1. His focus all season has been geared towards the postseason, from both a mental standpoint and from a physical standpoint.

[Dojji]

That sounds very Belichickian and makes me very excited.

[Kimmi]

Congrats to Dave for winning Executive of the Year.

 

Thanks Ben!

[moonslav59]

I don't follow football closely enough to make the comparison with Belichick.

 

As far as the Sox go this year, Cora started preparing his players from Day 1. His focus all season has been geared towards the postseason, from both a mental standpoint and from a physical standpoint.

 

The team also stuck to the fundamentals and reduced bonehead plays and lack-of-focus mistakes.

 

Cora is the best!