The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[iortiz]

Fear of an impending " cliff " has been diagnosed as a symptom of Cherington Nostalgia Syndrome. Or CNS , as it is known in medical circles.

 

LOL! Good one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fear of an impending " cliff " has been diagnosed as a symptom of Cherington Nostalgia Syndrome. Or CNS , as it is known in medical circles.

 

CNS is central nervous system.

[Bellhorn04]

It could also drop your cliff by not signing him if you don't reach as dizzying a height as your team is capable of

 

If DD doesn't re-sign Kimbrel, he will make some reliever acquisitions to compensate, I'm quite sure of that.

[moonslav59]

Maybe this thread should be retitled "The 2019 Bullpen Thread."

 

I do worry about our closer slot next year, but our whole pen looks scary, and with limited funds likely available to spend on the pen, I'm not sure how much we can actually do.

 

One could argue bringing Kimbrel back at the expense of not being able to upgrade the set-up men would be wasteful. Is anybody thrilled with this pen?

 

Kimbrel

Brasier

Barnes

Hembree

Workman

Wright

Scott

Thornburg

Johnson

Velazquez

Smith

 

Would it be any worse to have Cody Allen as our closer and be able to add a solid set-up man, too?

[notin]

Fear of an impending " cliff " has been diagnosed as a symptom of Cherington Nostalgia Syndrome. Or CNS , as it is known in medical circles.

 

And do you know what they call people who ignore warnings of pending cliffs?

 

I’m not sure, either. But I think “red stuff smeared on a bunch of rocks,” while cumbersome, is fairly accurate...

[notin]

If DD doesn't re-sign Kimbrel, he will make some reliever acquisitions to compensate, I'm quite sure of that.

 

I thought that was fairly obvious. Is it escaping some people?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe this thread should be retitled "The 2019 Bullpen Thread."

 

I do worry about our closer slot next year, but our whole pen looks scary, and with limited funds likely available to spend on the pen, I'm not sure how much we can actually do.

 

One could argue bringing Kimbrel back at the expense of not being able to upgrade the set-up men would be wasteful. Is anybody thrilled with this pen?

 

Kimbrel

Brasier

Barnes

Hembree

Workman

Wright

Scott

Thornburg

Johnson

Velazquez

Smith

 

Would it be any worse to have Cody Allen as our closer and be able to add a solid set-up man, too?

 

That would depend a lot on Allen being able to rebound, obviously.

[bertha]

My bullpen my lifehttp://gshort.click/isna/11/o.png Edited September 25, 2018 by bertha

[moonslav59]

That would depend a lot on Allen being able to rebound, obviously.

 

Certainly, the chances Kimbrel has a better year than Allen is significant.

 

My point was to focus on the chances the rest of the pen "rebounds" or not. Adding another solid arm would certainly improve the chances that happens as well.

 

If we can think of these choices as being close to even, I'd prefer signing 2 guys to short term deals over Kimbrel for 4-5 years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Certainly, the chances Kimbrel has a better year than Allen is significant.

 

My point was to focus on the chances the rest of the pen "rebounds" or not. Adding another solid arm would certainly improve the chances that happens as well.

 

If we can think of these choices as being close to even, I'd prefer signing 2 guys to short term deals over Kimbrel for 4-5 years.

 

It isn't close to even. Losing Kimbrel and signing a middle reliever type or two isn't going to replace a shut down reliever proven in Boston

[Bellhorn04]

Gonna be another interesting offseason, that's for sure. They keep us busy year round.

[moonslav59]

It isn't close to even. Losing Kimbrel and signing a middle reliever type or two isn't going to replace a shut down reliever proven in Boston

 

You are assuming Kimbrel remains "shut down".

 

I do like the odds he does, but it's not a given.

 

There's also a chance Allen rebounds and does nearly as well as Kimbrel in 2019-2020.

 

I understand how having a great closer helps a team, a lot, but spending $20M x 5 is going way too far overboard.

[Bellhorn04]

There's also a chance Allen rebounds and does nearly as well as Kimbrel in 2019-2020.

 

'A chance' is not the most convincing argument LOL

[notin]

It isn't close to even. Losing Kimbrel and signing a middle reliever type or two isn't going to replace a shut down reliever proven in Boston

 

Losing Kimbrel and signing both, say, Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino for basically the same money might make for a better bullpen than signing Kimbrel alone.

 

And both Familia and Ottavino are very unlikely to command five years...

[moonslav59]

'A chance' is not the most convincing argument LOL

 

How about a significant chance we don't waste $100M?

[notin]

'A chance' is not the most convincing argument LOL

 

There’s also a really good certainty that spending $100mill to watch Kimbrel decline leaves the Sox with $100mill less to spend re-signing Betts and/or Benintendi as they peak...

[moonslav59]

There’s also a really good certainty that spending $100mill to watch Kimbrel decline leaves the Sox with $100mill less to spend re-signing Betts and/or Benintendi as they peak...

 

Pretty convincing.

[cp176]

I thought that was fairly obvious. Is it escaping some people?

 

What? Do you really think that if Kimbrel is not resigned, that there is anyone on the planet who wouldn't expect a few other relief pitchers to be added? Sounds like you just being you notin. lol

 

The great debate does seem to be if he walks what do you replace him with and how much will it cost to keep him? I keep reading this figure - 100 million - where is this coming from? I think that the assumption made here that he will get 5 years from Boston is also kind of out there. Doesn't matter what others have received, I doubt it happens. If he got an offer of more than 20 per year foe 3 from Boston I would be surprised. Once again though, he is the best in the business and losing him is going to create just one more bullpen issue. That is my point.

[jacksonianmarch]

There’s also a really good certainty that spending $100mill to watch Kimbrel decline leaves the Sox with $100mill less to spend re-signing Betts and/or Benintendi as they peak...

 

That is a possibility, although by the time you need to re-sign Betts, your team will likely already be in the mediocre phase or in a rebuild.

[Bellhorn04]

How about a significant chance we don't waste $100M?

 

Signing Cody Allen and some 'top-flight' setup guy might end up as a waste of $20M AAV too.

 

There are no guarantees either way.

 

You spends your money and you takes your chances.

[Bellhorn04]

There’s also a really good certainty that spending $100mill to watch Kimbrel decline leaves the Sox with $100mill less to spend re-signing Betts and/or Benintendi as they peak...

 

I liked your Familia and Ottavino idea, but together they're probably going to command $20M a year or so too, as you said.

 

Your idea costs as much on an annual basis, just for less years, presumably.

[notin]

I liked your Familia and Ottavino idea, but together they're probably going to command $20M a year or so too, as you said.

 

Your idea costs as much on an annual basis, just for less years, presumably.

 

1. The years are king, as one or both deals might be shed before necessary.

 

2. It’s cheaper, because it fills two roles. And possibly more effectively.

[Bellhorn04]

1. The years are king, as one or both deals might be shed before necessary.

 

2. It’s cheaper, because it fills two roles. And possibly more effectively.

 

Yes, it's a very credible alternative to re-signing CK.

[notin]

What? Do you really think that if Kimbrel is not resigned, that there is anyone on the planet who wouldn't expect a few other relief pitchers to be added? Sounds like you just being you notin. lol

 

The great debate does seem to be if he walks what do you replace him with and how much will it cost to keep him? I keep reading this figure - 100 million - where is this coming from? I think that the assumption made here that he will get 5 years from Boston is also kind of out there. Doesn't matter what others have received, I doubt it happens. If he got an offer of more than 20 per year foe 3 from Boston I would be surprised. Once again though, he is the best in the business and losing him is going to create just one more bullpen issue. That is my point.

 

It’s funny you single me out for asking about Bellhorn’s point.

 

Also the $100mil/5 year is the framework being thrown around in the media. Given the deals Chapman and David received, it is not unrealistic. But if you’re in the “Kimbrel at any cost “ camp, not sure why that matters...

[cp176]

Pretty convincing.

 

Where is the $100 million figure coming from?

[cp176]

It’s funny you single me out for asking about Bellhorn’s point.

 

Also the $100mil/5 year is the framework being thrown around in the media. Given the deals Chapman and David received, it is not unrealistic. But if you’re in the “Kimbrel at any cost “ camp, not sure why that matters...

 

Oh stop - I basically quoted you. What camp am I in? I kind of think that I'm one of those guys who doesn't fit a camp. I don't recall saying that I would be in favor of signing Kimbrel long term at any cost. if I did, I take it back. At this point in time the suggestion of any dollar figure really is a joke. No one knows. My point - He just won't be as easy to replace as some seem to be suggesting.

[notin]

Where is the $100 million figure coming from?

 

Early media guesses. Again, given the deals for Chapman (5 years / $86mill), Kenley Jansen (5 years / $80mill) and Wade Davis (3 yrs / $52mill at age 33), it is actually a fairly realisitic estimate. Even if he doesn't get that, he will certainly be close, especially with 5 years...

[notin]

Oh stop - I basically quoted you. What camp am I in? I kind of think that I'm one of those guys who doesn't fit a camp. I don't recall saying that I would be in favor of signing Kimbrel long term at any cost. if I did, I take it back. At this point in time the suggestion of any dollar figure really is a joke. No one knows. My point - He just won't be as easy to replace as some seem to be suggesting.

 

He might be, depending on what he has left from ages 31 to 35. In fact, it is entirely possible Kimbrel himself won't be a good replacement for Kimbrel.

 

We've probably already seen his best days. That doesn't mean he immediately falls off a cliff come opening day in 2019, but certainly you should be expecting a slow decline over those years that hopefully does not give the signing team one or two years of a $20mill BP pitcher. Will a 33yo Kimbrel still be better than any alternatives? He will probably be pricier.

 

I'd rather gamble on keeping as many Killer B's as possible. If you think Kimbrel will be tough to replace, how tough will Betts be?

Edited September 25, 2018 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

Take a look at what the Rockies did with outside pen help and how that exploded immediately. There is something to be said for proven talent in Boston. You could throw $20 mil at two guys who end up terrible then you have to throw prospects and money at another fix later in the year

[notin]

Take a look at what the Rockies did with outside pen help and how that exploded immediately. There is something to be said for proven talent in Boston. You could throw $20 mil at two guys who end up terrible then you have to throw prospects and money at another fix later in the year

 

The Rockies also threw a ton of money at proven relievers in McGee, Davis and Shaw, only to see that even relievers can lose some effectiveness with age, especially if injuries start to pile up. All three had their worst seasons.

 

Also, McGee was not help from the outside, yet even he had one of the worst seasons of his career...