A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[notin]

True, but you don't need to be Tommy Lasorda to know the importance of Betts and JD is to this line-up. I'm sure this team has been Scouted pretty good, anyway.

 

The postseason is way beyond scouting. It goes deep into data-driven analytics at this point...

[moonslav59]

I think I'd go with this...

 

Game 1: Sale (H)

 

Game 2: Price (H)

 

Game 3: Porcello (A)

 

Game 4: Eovaldi (A) if needed

 

Game 5: Sale (H) if needed

 

Long relief: ERod & Wright

Set-up: Barnes, Brasier, Poyner & Workman (maybe Kelly or Hembree instead of Workman)

Closer: Kimbrel

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Pearce 1B

6. Devers 3B

7. JBJ CF

8. Kinsler 2B

9. Leon (w Sale & Price)/ Vaz (w Porcello & Eovaldi)

 

Bench:

Holt (PH, 2B, 1B, 3B, SS, OF) I might use him at 1B over Moreland vs RHPs.

Nunez (3B, 2B, OF)

Swihart (C, PH, 1B, OF)

Moreland (1B, PH) I'd think about taking Lin over Moreland. I've lost faith in MM.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

According to Kimmie and contrary to popular belief Home Field Advantage doesn't exist. If so then HFDisadvantage also doesn't exist. Therefore whichever side you come down on regarding HFA it's going to be a 'wash' if we play Oakland.

 

However, if we play the Yankees, while I understand the statistics saying that HFA doesn't exist I have a lot of trouble believing that the Yankees with their short porch in RF and their 'strong men' with the ability to hit to RF doesn't give them a decided advantage when playing in YS.

 

Long and short, I'm glad we're playing game 7 (if necessary) in Fenway.

 

I never said that HFA doesn't exist.

 

There is an advantage, but the advantage is so slight that making sure your players are rested and healthy is more important than going all out to win home field advantage.

[Kimmi]

I NEVER EVER want to see the Yankees win.

 

End of story.

[moonslav59]

I never said that HFA doesn't exist.

 

There is an advantage, but the advantage is so slight that making sure your players are rested and healthy is more important than going all out to win home field advantage.

 

Yes, and we appear to have both.

[oldtimer]

I think I'd go with this...

 

Game 1: Sale (H)

 

Game 2: Price (H)

 

Game 3: Porcello (A)

 

Game 4: Eovaldi (A) if needed

 

Game 5: Sale (H) if needed

 

Long relief: ERod & Wright

Set-up: Barnes, Brasier, Poyner & Workman (maybe Kelly or Hembree instead of Workman)

Closer: Kimbrel

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Pearce 1B

6. Devers 3B

7. JBJ CF

8. Kinsler 2B

9. Leon (w Sale & Price)/ Vaz (w Porcello & Eovaldi)

 

Bench:

Holt (PH, 2B, 1B, 3B, SS, OF) I might use him at 1B over Moreland vs RHPs.

Nunez (3B, 2B, OF)

Swihart (C, PH, 1B, OF)

Moreland (1B, PH) I'd think about taking Lin over Moreland. I've lost faith in MM.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lin certainly has looked good during the last week and Moreland is in a slump. Hard to pick him over Moreland though.

[moonslav59]

Lin certainly has looked good during the last week and Moreland is in a slump. Hard to pick him over Moreland though.

 

I seriously doubt Moreland is left off the ALDS roster, but he's been slumping for a very long time.

 

Hard to imagine Mitch was at .905 on June 28th. (Even then, he was at .714 in his previous 20 games as he went from 1.001 to .905.)

 

He's been at .577 since June 28th (57 games/209 PAs).

.189 BA

.282 OBP

.294 SLG

4 HRs

 

I wouldn't add Lin over Moreland, because he has hit well recently. I don't expect Lin to hit, but he should be better than .577 and he adds a nice defensive replacement and PR'er for late game needs.

 

BTW, since June 6th, Moreland has been at .616 (77 games and 289 PAs).

[jacksonianmarch]

I never said that HFA doesn't exist.

 

There is an advantage, but the advantage is so slight that making sure your players are rested and healthy is more important than going all out to win home field advantage.

 

Depends on the team. Some teams are so built to their stadium that HFA is very important. Really interesting looking at the win percentages

 

The sox and Yanks have the biggest HFA with a 7% increase in win percentage between home and away. The Astros have ridiculous reverse splits. The Stros have a 14% higher win percentage on the road than at home. The Stros have won 71% of their road games. That's the best split in the majors home or away, even better than the sox 70% win percentage at home. Interesting other splits... The Yanks have the best win % vs >.500 teams at .585. The Dodgers are second with the sox third.

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering who the starters will be in the Yankee-A's game Wednesday night (10/3).

 

One might think that starter might be ready for Game 3 of the ALDS (at home).

 

If the Yankees win with Severino, could it look like this?

 

1. Sale vs Happ

2. Price vs Tanaka

3. Porcello vs Severino

4. Eovaldi vs Sabathia

5. Sale vs Happ

 

Or, will the Yanks go with Tanaka in the WC game?

 

many feel Happ will start the WC game. That looks like good news for the Sox, as they would only have to face Happ once.

 

1. Sale vs Severino (assuming he doesn't start Sunday)

2. Price vs Tanaka

3. Porcello vs Happ

4. Eovaldi vs Sabathia

5. Sale vs Severino

Edited September 30, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Interesting article on NL closer turnover this year and who might be available as free agents this winter:

 

Past, Present & Future...

[jacksonianmarch]

Boone hasn’t tipped his hand. The easy assumption would be Happ since he’s been pretty dominant of late and his only real blemish was the GS he gave up to Pearce in the 6th of a previously scoreless performance. CC finished on a dominant, albeit ejection shortened, note but was pretty hittable before that. Sevy has two pretty dominant performances and a mediocre Rays start to close out the year. Tanaka was the easy choice before throwing up two straight stinkers where his command was way off. My guess is Tanaka as the A’s are mostly RH and with Tanaka’s solid PO track record, although the A’s are better vs RH pitchers by OPS.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and we appear to have both.

 

Yes, we do. But Cora was smart in resting our players and keeping them healthy, over worrying about clinching HFA. If you can have both, then even better.

 

That said, while you want to have a Game 5 or a Game 7 in your home park, if the visiting team wins just 1 of the first 2 games, then "HFA" shifts to the away team, and it might be Game 4 or Game 5 that is the clincher. There are times that I really feel like I'd rather start a series on the road, especially in the ALDS.

[Kimmi]

Depends on the team. Some teams are so built to their stadium that HFA is very important. Really interesting looking at the win percentages

 

The sox and Yanks have the biggest HFA with a 7% increase in win percentage between home and away. The Astros have ridiculous reverse splits. The Stros have a 14% higher win percentage on the road than at home. The Stros have won 71% of their road games. That's the best split in the majors home or away, even better than the sox 70% win percentage at home. Interesting other splits... The Yanks have the best win % vs >.500 teams at .585. The Dodgers are second with the sox third.

 

I get all that. I'm talking about whether the team with HFA has a strong advantage of winning a series in the postseason. They don't. There is a slight advantage, so all other things being equal, you'd want to have it. But it's not as large an advantage as most people think it is. I don't remember the exact % off the top of my head.

[OH FOY]

Hockey and Baseball, Football to some extent, Fans help but their is no HFA. Both Sports you can take the Fans right out of a game. Now its about match-ups, and execution. And Managers decisions, are now more involved. Throughout game and Series. Your not playing KC, Orioles, or less quality Opponents. That's why Season Stats are meaningless now. Because they include Bad Opponents. It starts fresh. One play in a short series, can be a difference maker. That's where the Mental part of the game starts. It's every pitch time, it's a hard grind, on the mind.

 

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

Edited September 30, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

More from Yogi...

 

"I always thought that record would stand until it was broken."

 

"I can see how he (Sandy Koufax) won 25 games. What I don't understand is how he lost five."

 

"I think Little League is wonderful. It keeps the kids out of the house."

 

"Little League baseball is a very good thing because it keeps the parents off the streets."

 

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

 

"All pitchers are liars or crybabies."

 

(On the 1973 Mets) "We were overwhelming underdogs."

 

"I never blame myself when I'm not hitting. I just blame the bat and if it keeps up, I change bats. After all, if I know it isn't my fault that I'm not hitting, how can I get mad at myself?"

 

"So I'm ugly. I never saw anyone hit with his face."

 

"In baseball, you don't know nothing."

 

"I'm a lucky guy and I'm happy to be with the Yankees. And I want to thank everyone for making this day necessary."

 

"I wish everybody had the drive he (Joe DiMaggio) had. He never did anything wrong on the field. I'd never seen him dive for a ball, everything was a chest-high catch, and he never walked off the field."

 

"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting."

 

"If you don't catch the ball, you catch the bus home."

 

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

 

"A home opener is always exciting, no matter if it's home or on the road."

 

"It ain't the heat, it's the humility."

 

"It gets late early out here."

 

On life:

 

"You can observe a lot by watching."

 

"We're lost but we're making great time!"

 

"The future ain't what it used to be."

 

"If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else."

 

"Take it with a grin of salt."

 

"You should always go to other people's funerals, otherwise, they won't come to yours."

 

"When you come to a fork in the road, take it."

 

"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did."

 

"We made too many wrong mistakes."

 

"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore."

 

"I wish I had an answer to that, because I'm tired of answering that question."

 

"We have a good time together, even when we're not together."

 

"If you don't set goals, you can't regret not reaching them."

 

On golf:

 

"Ninety per cent of short putts don't go in."

 

"Eighty per cent of the balls that don't reach the hole don't go in."

 

"I think they just got through marinating the greens."

 

On travel gear:

 

"Why buy good luggage, you only use it when you travel."

 

"The towels were so thick there I could hardly close my suitcase."

 

On naps:

 

"I usually take a two-hour nap from one to four."

 

On "fan" mail:

 

"Never answer an anonymous letter."

 

On his own words:

 

"I never said most of the things I said."

[oldtimer]

Who is hot and who is not going into the PO's. Using Moon's list, which I find pretty close to my expectations:

 

 

1. Betts RF Red Hot

2. Beni LF Warming up but no real power

3. Bogey SS So so

4. JD DH So so

5. Pearce 1B Hot

6. Devers 3B Hot

7. JBJ CF So so

8. Kinsler 2B Cool

9. Leon (w Sale & Price) Ice Cold

10.Vaz (w Porcello & Eovaldi) Cool

 

Bench:

Holt (PH, 2B, 1B, 3B, SS, OF) I might use him at 1B over Moreland vs RHPs. Hot

Nunez (3B, 2B, OF) Warm (good contact)

Swihart (C, PH, 1B, OF) Warm

Moreland (1B, PH) I'd think about taking Ice Cold

Lin over Moreland. I've lost faith in MM. Warm

 

I am for going with our best hitters (Lin probably won't make the team), unless there are strong extenuating circumstances, such as a big defensive disparity.

[moonslav59]

Who is hot and who is not going into the PO's. Using Moon's list, which I find pretty close to my expectations:

 

Last 28 days OPS

1. Betts RF Red Hot 1.185

2. Beni LF Warming up but no real power .707/.839 last 14

3. Bogey SS So so .933

4. JD DH So so .806 .996 last 14 days

5. Pearce 1B Hot .845

6. Devers 3B Hot .820 .990 last 14

7. JBJ CF So so .725

8. Kinsler 2B Cool .517

9. Leon (w Sale & Price) Ice Cold .161

10.Vaz (w Porcello & Eovaldi) Cool .566

 

Bench:

Holt 1.128 I might use him at 1B over Moreland vs RHPs. Hot

Nunez .667(3B, 2B, OF) Warm (good contact)

Swihart .768 (C, PH, 1B, OF) Warm.900 last 14

Moreland .590(1B, PH) I'd think about taking Ice Cold

Lin 1.444 over Moreland. I've lost faith in MM. Warm

[Bellhorn04]

Who is hot and who is not going into the PO's. Using Moon's list, which I find pretty close to my expectations:

 

 

1. Betts RF Red Hot

2. Beni LF Warming up but no real power

3. Bogey SS So so

4. JD DH So so

5. Pearce 1B Hot

6. Devers 3B Hot

7. JBJ CF So so

8. Kinsler 2B Cool

9. Leon (w Sale & Price) Ice Cold

10.Vaz (w Porcello & Eovaldi) Cool

 

Bench:

Holt (PH, 2B, 1B, 3B, SS, OF) I might use him at 1B over Moreland vs RHPs. Hot

Nunez (3B, 2B, OF) Warm (good contact)

Swihart (C, PH, 1B, OF) Warm

Moreland (1B, PH) I'd think about taking Ice Cold

Lin over Moreland. I've lost faith in MM. Warm

 

I am for going with our best hitters (Lin probably won't make the team), unless there are strong extenuating circumstances, such as a big defensive disparity.

 

Bogey So so? In September he is hitting 305/405/514 for a 919 OPS.

Moreland - in his last 2 games he has 3 hits and 2 walks so he might be coming out of it just in time.

[moonslav59]

Bogey So so? In September he is hitting 305/405/514 for a 919 OPS.

Moreland - in his last 2 games he has 3 hits and 2 walks so he might be coming out of it just in time.

 

We really could use a Moreland resurgence.

[oldtimer]

We really could use a Moreland resurgence.

 

Yes, but it is a lot to hope for. Be interesting to see the final roster choices by Cora. It comes down to picking the better among a group with flaws in the BP. Eaqch reliever in question has looked erratic in the past period, so Cora doesn't have obvious choices. I still think Poyner is needed as a lefty specialist and Workman for his sinker. Johnson is another lefty under consideration and Kelly and Hembree are the righties.

[Kimmi]

We really could use a Moreland resurgence.

 

It's too bad we don't have Hanley.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but it is a lot to hope for. Be interesting to see the final roster choices by Cora. It comes down to picking the better among a group with flaws in the BP. Eaqch reliever in question has looked erratic in the past period, so Cora doesn't have obvious choices. I still think Poyner is needed as a lefty specialist and Workman for his sinker. Johnson is another lefty under consideration and Kelly and Hembree are the righties.

 

We need great righties.

[moonslav59]

It's too bad we don't have Hanley.

 

Too bad the Yanks didn't sign him.

[Larry Cook]

Are we going to platoon Pearce and Moreland at first base?

[moonslav59]

Are we going to platoon Pearce and Moreland at first base?

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Pearce FT or even Holt at 1B vs RHPs, but I'm almost certain Cora will stay with what he did all season: MM vs RHPs and Pearce vs LHP.

[moonslav59]

BA

1. Betts

2. JD

 

HRs

1. Davis

2. JD

 

RBI

1. JD

12. Bogey

 

SLG%

1. Betts

2. JD

Edited October 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

Who is hot and who is not going into the PO's. Using Moon's list, which I find pretty close to my expectations:

 

Last 28 days OPS

1. Betts RF Red Hot 1.185

2. Beni LF Warming up but no real power .707/.839 last 14

3. Bogey SS So so .933

4. JD DH So so .806 .996 last 14 days

5. Pearce 1B Hot .845

6. Devers 3B Hot .820 .990 last 14

7. JBJ CF So so .725

8. Kinsler 2B Cool .517

9. Leon (w Sale & Price) Ice Cold .161

10.Vaz (w Porcello & Eovaldi) Cool .566

 

Bench:

Holt 1.128 I might use him at 1B over Moreland vs RHPs. Hot

Nunez .667(3B, 2B, OF) Warm (good contact)

Swihart .768 (C, PH, 1B, OF) Warm.900 last 14

Moreland .590(1B, PH) I'd think about taking Ice Cold

Lin 1.444 over Moreland. I've lost faith in MM. Warm

Well played moon.

 

Can’t wait to see my Sox win another WS.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't mind seeing Pearce FT or even Holt at 1B vs RHPs, but I'm almost certain Cora will stay with what he did all season: MM vs RHPs and Pearce vs LHP.

 

Holt over Moreland would really be going with the *HOT HAND*.

[moonslav59]

Holt over Moreland would really be going with the *HOT HAND*.

 

That and not going with the cold hand.

[moonslav59]

Final Sox OPS Numbers

1.078 Betts

1.031 JDM

.901 Pearce

.883 Bogey

.830 Beni

.774 Holt

.758 Moreland

.731 Devers

.717 JBJ

.677 Nunez

.613 Swihart

.604 Kinsler

.540 Vaz

.511 Leon

 

2nd Half

1.021 JDM

.995 Betts

.872 Bogey

.832 Pearce

.827 JBJ

.809 Holt

.781 Devers

.736 Nunez

.727 Beni

.706 Swihart

.604 Kinsler

.600 Moreland

.499 Vaz

.330 Leon

 

Past 30 Days

1.268 Lin (24 PAs)

1.123 Holt

1.120 Betts

.987 Bogey

.898 JDM

.828 Pearce

.826 JBJ

.807 Devers

 

To all the doom & gloomers who also just look at most recent numbers, isn't have 9 guys over .807 supposed to be encouraging?

 

.713 Swihart

.707 Nunez

.667 Beni

.604 Moreland

.510 Kinsler

.499 Vaz

.139 Leon