A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Kelly has tumbled to the point that replacing him shouldn't be a big deal either.

 

I disagree. While the Kelly of the last month should be easy to replace, he's been a net plus over the season. I'd rather have Kelly in 2019 than Smith or Hembree, two that will likely move up to or near his slot.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree. While the Kelly of the last month should be easy to replace, he's been a net plus over the season. I'd rather have Kelly in 2019 than Smith or Hembree, two that will likely move up to or near his slot.

 

Kelly has a 0.5 fWAR at a salary of $3.8 million. That's not much in the way of surplus value.

 

And he's actually been terrible since June 1 - 2.5 months, not 1 month.

[Kimmi]

Losing Kimbrel & Kelly makes getting a top RP'er a higher priority than 2B, where we will have Nunez, Holt, Hernandez, Lin and maybe Quiroz in the mix.

 

While this pen might not be bad, it probably won't be top 10 or 15:

 

Thornburg

Smith

Barnes

Braiser

Hembree

Workman

2 from Wright/Johnson/Velazquez (assuming the rotation is 100% healthy)

Scott/Poyner/Walden/Maddox

Haley/Shawaryn/Cuevas/Shepherd/D Hernandez

Houck/Feltman/Lakins

 

 

I won't argue with that.

 

Our team will be largely intact next year. I can agree that Kimbrel will be the biggest loss, if he does in fact sign elsewhere, but I think the BP is one of the easiest areas to improve or replace.

[Kimmi]

Like you, I think we will have a question mark at 2nd base with Pedroia on the payroll but far from certain to be on the roster. I see us looking for a younger player who can be our 2nd baseman of the future. There may also be a need at 3rd base. The problem of moving Devers to first next year is that we also have Moreland signed and we don't need two left handed first baseman on the same team. Presumably, after minor knee surgery Moreland will be good to go for another season. We probably will keep Devers at 3rd for another season and hope that he shows significant impprovement in his fielding, his hitting and also his physical conditioning. After that he may find himself at 1st.

 

I think Pom is gone next season. Panda's salary is off the books after that and one major burden is off the books.

 

I am not ready to move Devers to 1B yet. With Moreland signed through next year, I'm giving Devers at least that much time to show us some improvement defensively.

 

It's difficult to know what to do about 2B without knowing how Pedroia is going to respond. It would be hard to sign a full time 2B and then have Pedroia also ready to play full time.

[oldtimer]

I am not ready to move Devers to 1B yet. With Moreland signed through next year, I'm giving Devers at least that much time to show us some improvement defensively.

 

It's difficult to know what to do about 2B without knowing how Pedroia is going to respond. It would be hard to sign a full time 2B and then have Pedroia also ready to play full time.

 

I don't think Pedroia will ever be able to stand the wear and tear of regular play. That knee will probably not take a lot of abuse. I have a lot of respect for what he has meant for the Sox over the years but believe he should consider retiring while he still have mobility.

[Kimmi]

I don't think Pedroia will ever be able to stand the wear and tear of regular play. That knee will probably not take a lot of abuse. I have a lot of respect for what he has meant for the Sox over the years but believe he should consider retiring while he still have mobility.

 

You may very well be right Oldtimer. If he can play 3 games a week, and he might not even be able to do that, I think having Nunez and Holt as platoon guys makes more sense.

[moonslav59]

Kelly has a 0.5 fWAR at a salary of $3.8 million. That's not much in the way of surplus value.

 

And he's actually been terrible since June 1 - 2.5 months, not 1 month.

 

Good points, but it we will still need a solid #2 next year, and it will likely cost much more than $3.8M to do it via free agency.

 

I'm not sure we have prospects we want to trade for one. We need to rebuild our farm not shorten it.

 

We may find a good solution within the system, but I'd rather hope on Pedey, Nunez. Holt, Hernandez and others at 2B than Hembree, Workman, Smith and Brasier to be our solid #2, assuming Thornburg is our #1 and we can only afford one semi-major acquisition.

 

This is just talking the theory of what our number 1-2-3 priorities will be this winter. If we get a solid closer (which may be Kimbrel returning), then maybe I'd put 2B ahead of a strong set-up man, but if we are relying on Thornburg, Smith, Barnes or Brasier to close, we'd better get 2 strong set-up men before a 2Bman, in my book. First, because our closer will probably be weaker, and second, because our best set-up man will be moving to closer causing us to not only lose Kelly at set-up but another guy, too.

 

[moonslav59]

If a slump is scoring 12 runs in the last 3 games and 52 in the last 9, then we aren't so bad off.

[oldtimer]

If a slump is scoring 12 runs in the last 3 games and 52 in the last 9, then we aren't so bad off.

 

A slump is where we stop getting hits. We got 4 in the previous game but scored 5 runs since their starter was wild. The game today we got 2 hits and 0 runs. We weren't facing a top starter in either game. The top of our order has carried the team offense for much of the year. They looked tired for the last couple of games. Better get their hitting shoes on against Cleveland and compete.

[moonslav59]

A slump is where we stop getting hits. We got 4 in the previous game but scored 5 runs since their starter was wild. The game today we got 2 hits and 0 runs. We weren't facing a top starter in either game. The top of our order has carried the team offense for much of the year. They looked tired for the last couple of games. Better get their hitting shoes on against Cleveland and compete.

 

I don't think 2 games can be called a slump.

 

Baseball is full of ups and downs. That's why they play 162.

[Station 13]

13-3 in August, Sale only made 1 start. No E-Rod completely.

[moonslav59]

13-3 in August, Sale only made 1 start. No E-Rod completely.

 

No Wright

No Smith

No Pedey

No Vaz

 

Sale and Devers to the DL.

[Bellhorn04]

Tough week ahead. 4 with Cleveland followed by 3 in the Trop.

[notin]

Like you, I think we will have a question mark at 2nd base with Pedroia on the payroll but far from certain to be on the roster. I see us looking for a younger player who can be our 2nd baseman of the future. There may also be a need at 3rd base. The problem of moving Devers to first next year is that we also have Moreland signed and we don't need two left handed first baseman on the same team. Presumably, after minor knee surgery Moreland will be good to go for another season. We probably will keep Devers at 3rd for another season and hope that he shows significant impprovement in his fielding, his hitting and also his physical conditioning. After that he may find himself at 1st.

 

I think Pom is gone next season. Panda's salary is off the books after that and one major burden is off the books.

 

Panda might be off the books, but his salary doesn't count towards the luxury tax anyway. So while it keeps Henry from writing one less check, his free agency doesn't give the Sox more money to use towards roster construction....

[notin]

Kelly has a 0.5 fWAR at a salary of $3.8 million. That's not much in the way of surplus value.

 

And he's actually been terrible since June 1 - 2.5 months, not 1 month.

 

I'm hesititant to say "terrible."

 

Kelly has pitched in 30 games since June 1. He has given up 1 ER or fewer in 26 of those games, including nineteen 0 ER appearances. While his ERA over that stretch is 6.75 and the league has an OPS of .825 against him, which is not good, he has been getting the job done the majority of the time.

 

He's probably gone after this season, but he won't be as easy to replace as many think...

[Bellhorn04]

Panda might be off the books, but his salary doesn't count towards the luxury tax anyway. So while it keeps Henry from writing one less check, his free agency doesn't give the Sox more money to use towards roster construction....

 

Panda is on the books for tax purposes for 2018 and 2019, at $19 million less what the Giants are paying him, which is $545 K this year.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm hesititant to say "terrible."

 

Kelly has pitched in 30 games since June 1. He has given up 1 ER or fewer in 26 of those games, including nineteen 0 ER appearances. While his ERA over that stretch is 6.75 and the league has an OPS of .825 against him, which is not good, he has been getting the job done the majority of the time.

 

He's probably gone after this season, but he won't be as easy to replace as many think...

 

A guy with an .825 OPS against over 2.5 months is not THAT hard to replace. I would think the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach we often hear about for bullpens would be applicable here.

[oldtimer]

Panda might be off the books, but his salary doesn't count towards the luxury tax anyway. So while it keeps Henry from writing one less check, his free agency doesn't give the Sox more money to use towards roster construction....

 

What I said is Panda is off the books after 2019. Next year we still are carrying that heavy weight.

[notin]

A guy with an .825 OPS against over 2.5 months is not THAT hard to replace. I would think the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach we often hear about for bullpens would be applicable here.

 

That appears to be an outdated method. Teams take bullpens seriously since the average starter only pitches 5 innings and set up relievers can cost $6-8mill per season...

[moonslav59]

A guy with an .825 OPS against over 2.5 months is not THAT hard to replace. I would think the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach we often hear about for bullpens would be applicable here.

 

You are choosing a sample size that fits your position, which is fine. 2.5 months is a pretty good sample size, however the point is, we will need a solid #2 RP'er next year that is much better than Kelly is now and maybe the same as Kelly prior to the 2.5 month line.

 

If we don't replace Kimbrel, in kind, getting a solid set-up man or two takes on more urgency.

 

BTW, one could argue replacing Kimbrel will be easy, since he has not been doing all that well for ___ weeks.

 

.868 OPS against/ 5.40 ERA the last 28 days

 

.870/ .523 second half

[Bellhorn04]

You are choosing a sample size that fits your position, which is fine. 2.5 months is a pretty good sample size, however the point is, we will need a solid #2 RP'er next year that is much better than Kelly is now and maybe the same as Kelly prior to the 2.5 month line.

 

If we don't replace Kimbrel, in kind, getting a solid set-up man or two takes on more urgency.

 

BTW, one could argue replacing Kimbrel will be easy, since he has not been doing all that well for ___ weeks.

 

.868 OPS against/ 5.40 ERA the last 28 days

 

.870/ .523 second half

 

The thing about Kelly is, he hasn't ever really been consistently good for long stretches. Early this year it looked like he might finally be arriving, but he couldn't maintain it.

 

His fWAR places him as a pretty average reliever I would think.

[moonslav59]

The thing about Kelly is, he hasn't ever really been consistently good for long stretches. Early this year it looked like he might finally be arriving, but he couldn't maintain it.

 

His fWAR places him as a pretty average reliever I would think.

 

If he were more consistent, he'd be a closer.

 

The vast majority of set-up men in MLB, including those getting hefty contracts as free agents, are as consistent as Kelly- or worse.

[Bellhorn04]

If he were more consistent, he'd be a closer.

 

The vast majority of set-up men in MLB, including those getting hefty contracts as free agents, are as consistent as Kelly- or worse.

 

Kelly isn't even a set-up man at present, he's been demoted from that position for a while now.

[moonslav59]

Kelly isn't even a set-up man at present, he's been demoted from that position for a while now.

 

True, but by year's end he may be back as one.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to have much faith in any of our pen guys over recent weeks, except maybe Barnes & Brasier.

[Bellhorn04]

Workman and Thornburg have also been pretty good in recent weeks.

[moonslav59]

Workman and Thornburg have also been pretty good in recent weeks.

 

Thornburg has shown signs of life, but his sample size is small.

 

Opps have an .814 OPS against in the last 14 days (22 PAs).

 

Workman has pitched well. despite being yo-yo'd between MLB & AAA.

 

[moonslav59]

On the farm...

 

ERod 4 IP 8Ks (0ER, 1 H, 2 BB)

 

Good sign.

[OH FOY]

Real good sign, New Hampshire a very good hitting Minor League team. Too bad Guerrero wasn't still in NH, would have liked to see that, against E-Rod.

They will be seeing each other anyway in Sept. Guerrero will be called up in Sept. for sure.

Aaron Sanchez pitched against him, on Rehab.

E-Rod 63 pitches 39 for strikes.

 

https://www.milb.com/portland/news/rodriguez-sharp-in-rehab-start-dogs-win-4-3/c-291189730

Edited August 21, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Adding ERod could really help.