A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[kenmeister]

Agreed. Protection in the lineup is key. JDM was a terrific signing and a perfect fit for this team.

 

I waited all offseason for that deal to be finalized. It was stressful.

[OH FOY]

Good call I was skeptical.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you so much here Moon that it is making me nervous. Pretty sure this opinion will get raked over once again but oh well. Pressure to perform can hurt even the very best at anything. Adding JD to that lineup certainly helped end any case of the "I have to hit one out of here" syndrome that any of our hitters might have had.

 

See. I'm not so rigid as many might think I am.

 

[cp176]

See. I'm not so rigid as many might think I am.

 

 

guess not - lol

[oldtimer]

guess not - lol

 

Now Devers will be on the DL. That means Lin comes up and we have two of Holt, Nunez and Lin in the game every day.

[notin]

Now Devers will be on the DL. That means Lin comes up and we have two of Holt, Nunez and Lin in the game every day.

 

Just trade with the Dodgers for a utility infielder.like Brayvic Valera.

 

There is something about the water in Los Angeles that makes every utility infielder to play there suddenly morph into an All Star caliber player. From Jamey Carroll to Justin Turner to Keke Hernandez to Max Muncy. And probably a couple more.

 

We missed out on Charlie "Pinch Homer" Culberson. Are we going to keep passing on these guys and their obvious path to stardom?

[moonslav59]

Now Devers will be on the DL. That means Lin comes up and we have two of Holt, Nunez and Lin in the game every day.

 

Hopefully, Devers to the DL is just a precautionary move.

 

This from MLBTR...

 

Also hitting the shelf is Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, who’ll be replaced by Tzu-Wei Lin. The official cause of the placement for Devers is left shoulder inflammation, though it doesn’t seem there’s much reason to anticipate that he’s at risk of a more significant underlying problem. Still just 21 years of age, Devers has compiled 367 plate appearances of .241/.292/.424 hitting this year. He had been heating up over the month of June but is back in a lull through eight games in July, which perhaps helped motivate the club to give him a rest.

[Maxbialystock]

See. I'm not so rigid as many might think I am.

 

 

You express strong views and back them up with good stats, but you also like to review your own assertions as you have here. My memory is that early this season you insisted the hitting would be better because last year Betts, Beni, Bogey, et al had below par years. And you thought JD would have an effect similar to Ortiz when he was in the lineup. The surprise is that JDM has hit on a par with Big Papi in his best years, and there is no way you or anyone could have predicted that. But yours was the most consistent voice saying the lineup and hitting would be good this year.

[moonslav59]

You express strong views and back them up with good stats, but you also like to review your own assertions as you have here. My memory is that early this season you insisted the hitting would be better because last year Betts, Beni, Bogey, et al had below par years. And you thought JD would have an effect similar to Ortiz when he was in the lineup. The surprise is that JDM has hit on a par with Big Papi in his best years, and there is no way you or anyone could have predicted that. But yours was the most consistent voice saying the lineup and hitting would be good this year.

 

Thanks.

 

I did want JD and did think our offense was going to be top 3-5 this year.

 

I was never a big proponent of a guy like JD making everyone else much better due to "protection" and other ideas. That was the thing I am sgtarting to feel differently about.

 

Yes, I never had doubts about Bogey, Betts, Beni and others returning to norms this year, assuming good health. It bugged me when some others suggested or asked the question, "what if 2017 was their norm?"

 

Most players improve from ages 23-26 or so. Yes, most have set backs and struggling seasons, but not all at once. I rested blaming that primarily on the loss of Papi. Now, I'm not so sure. While I expected the killer bs to improve, theu've done much better than even I expected, and I think that might be JD's doing (with Cora and other coaches helping).

[kenmeister]

You express strong views and back them up with good stats, but you also like to review your own assertions as you have here. My memory is that early this season you insisted the hitting would be better because last year Betts, Beni, Bogey, et al had below par years. And you thought JD would have an effect similar to Ortiz when he was in the lineup. The surprise is that JDM has hit on a par with Big Papi in his best years, and there is no way you or anyone could have predicted that. But yours was the most consistent voice saying the lineup and hitting would be good this year.

 

No one could have predicted that? JDM is simply hitting like he did last year. I remember reading an article early in the offseason that JDM was actually the better hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, and I was giddy that the Sox were his prime suitor. It just took way too long to finalize the deal. Now for the other hitters, I read predictions that Beni would hit .300, that Bogaerts would start to develop power, and that Betts would bounce back to his 2016 self. So, I'd say the real surprise is that Betts is even better than his 2016 self. Everyone else is playing to about what we expected. Except JBJ. Still waiting for that hot month.

[oldtimer]

No one could have predicted that? JDM is simply hitting like he did last year. I remember reading an article early in the offseason that JDM was actually the better hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, and I was giddy that the Sox were his prime suitor. It just took way too long to finalize the deal. Now for the other hitters, I read predictions that Beni would hit .300, that Bogaerts would start to develop power, and that Betts would bounce back to his 2016 self. So, I'd say the real surprise is that Betts is even better than his 2016 self. Everyone else is playing to about what we expected. Except JBJ. Still waiting for that hot month.

 

Even JBJ has been making better contact. He has hit more balls to center and left as well. Maybe a little more pull would also work for him as his long balls to center wind up as outs. There is hope for him. I heard the comment was made from Cora recently that JBJ has finally joined the team, meaning he is buying in to hitting suggestions for him. Hope its true. He has a long way to go to get to a 230 average but there is time for him to achieve that. He would have to hit around 270 for the rest of the year to do it.

[cp176]

You express strong views and back them up with good stats, but you also like to review your own assertions as you have here. My memory is that early this season you insisted the hitting would be better because last year Betts, Beni, Bogey, et al had below par years. And you thought JD would have an effect similar to Ortiz when he was in the lineup. The surprise is that JDM has hit on a par with Big Papi in his best years, and there is no way you or anyone could have predicted that. But yours was the most consistent voice saying the lineup and hitting would be good this year.

 

Clearly Max is your primary supporter here Moon. We all need support. I'm just kidding I kind of like reading what both of you post. I don't always agree but that is a good thing and neither of you is particularly stubborn. I like that. Admitting that you are wrong now and then or even suggesting that you might not always be right is an attribute. I'm wrong a lot so no problem for me. lol

Plus the fact that I love communicating with people who actually lived through the times that I have.

[Maxbialystock]

No one could have predicted that? JDM is simply hitting like he did last year. I remember reading an article early in the offseason that JDM was actually the better hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, and I was giddy that the Sox were his prime suitor. It just took way too long to finalize the deal. Now for the other hitters, I read predictions that Beni would hit .300, that Bogaerts would start to develop power, and that Betts would bounce back to his 2016 self. So, I'd say the real surprise is that Betts is even better than his 2016 self. Everyone else is playing to about what we expected. Except JBJ. Still waiting for that hot month.

 

I checked. Good call by you.

[cp176]

No one could have predicted that? JDM is simply hitting like he did last year. I remember reading an article early in the offseason that JDM was actually the better hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, and I was giddy that the Sox were his prime suitor. It just took way too long to finalize the deal. Now for the other hitters, I read predictions that Beni would hit .300, that Bogaerts would start to develop power, and that Betts would bounce back to his 2016 self. So, I'd say the real surprise is that Betts is even better than his 2016 self. Everyone else is playing to about what we expected. Except JBJ. Still waiting for that hot month.

 

My guess - Our current GM knew exactly who the best fit for this team would be in JD Martinez. DD I think is that good plus he is an old horse trader.

[moonslav59]

No one could have predicted that? JDM is simply hitting like he did last year. I remember reading an article early in the offseason that JDM was actually the better hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, and I was giddy that the Sox were his prime suitor. It just took way too long to finalize the deal. Now for the other hitters, I read predictions that Beni would hit .300, that Bogaerts would start to develop power, and that Betts would bounce back to his 2016 self. So, I'd say the real surprise is that Betts is even better than his 2016 self. Everyone else is playing to about what we expected. Except JBJ. Still waiting for that hot month.

 

Yes, and Betts and others should bebetter than they were in 2016 (and certainly 2017), because they are entering prime years.

[moonslav59]

Even JBJ has been making better contact. He has hit more balls to center and left as well. Maybe a little more pull would also work for him as his long balls to center wind up as outs. There is hope for him. I heard the comment was made from Cora recently that JBJ has finally joined the team, meaning he is buying in to hitting suggestions for him. Hope its true. He has a long way to go to get to a 230 average but there is time for him to achieve that. He would have to hit around 270 for the rest of the year to do it.

 

Don't look now, but JBJ is getting close to passing a few guys in OPS:

 

.663 Leon

.658 Nunez

.641 JBJ

 

[moonslav59]

Clearly Max is your primary supporter here Moon. We all need support. I'm just kidding I kind of like reading what both of you post. I don't always agree but that is a good thing and neither of you is particularly stubborn. I like that. Admitting that you are wrong now and then or even suggesting that you might not always be right is an attribute. I'm wrong a lot so no problem for me. lol

Plus the fact that I love communicating with people who actually lived through the times that I have.

 

We lived through some tough times, and yet did not let them harden us too much.

 

I certainly have enjoyed your posts and am happy everyone doesn't all have the same thoughts and beliefs. Variety is the spice of life.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

So after the Mookie blast to complete one of the greatest at bats I've ever seen my wife came down to check after hearing my scream. She thought I had hurt myself somehow.

[Bellhorn04]

I only watched part of the game but I was fortunate enough to see that at-bat.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie's numbers are Stayin' Sick:

 

352/440/683 - 1123

[moonslav59]

MLB Leaders

 

BA

.352 Betts (This is Wade Boggs territory)

.333 Altuve

.329 JD

(25th: Beni at .297)

 

HR

28 JD & Jose Ramirez

25 Trout & Lindor & Judge

24 Aguilar

23 Betts (missed time while on DL)

 

RBI

79 JD

(28th: Beni & Bogey at 57)

 

OPS

1.123 Betts

1.075 Trout

1.036 JD

(16th Beni at .897/ 28th Bogey at .875)

(Moreland does not qualify but places 35th at .864 out of the 209 MLB players with 250+ PAs.)

 

 

[S5Dewey]

MLB Leaders

 

BA

.352 Betts (This is Wade Boggs territory)

.333 Altuve

.329 JD

(25th: Beni at .297)

 

HR

28 JD & Jose Ramirez

25 Trout & Lindor & Judge

24 Aguilar

23 Betts (missed time while on DL)

 

RBI

79 JD

(28th: Beni & Bogey at 57)

 

OPS

1.123 Betts

1.075 Trout

1.036 JD

(16th Beni at .897/ 28th Bogey at .875)

(Moreland does not qualify but places 35th at .864 out of the 209 MLB players with 250+ PAs.)

 

 

 

So in a nutshell we need to help JDM boost his average enough to win the triple crown.

[moonslav59]

MLB fWAR Leaders

6.6 Trout

6.1 Ramirez

5.9 Betts (over 60 less PAs rhan the 2 above)

13. Beni 3.6

16. JD 3.5

29. Bogey 2.9

88. Moreland 1.4

 

Pitching

4.9 Sale & Bauer

4.5 Verlander

4.4 deGrom

4.1 Scherzer

4.0 Nola & Severino

20. Porcello 2.2

44. ERod 1.6

65. Price 1.1

 

If you go by the theory that 1-30 are aces, 31-60 are number 2's, etc... we have:

 

Sale as the best ace in MLB

Porcello as a middle tier ace

ERod as an exact middle road #2 starter

Price as a high tier 3rd starter

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

ERA- Leaders

43 deGrom

51 Verlander

52 Sale

Porcello at 36th (84)

ERod at 38th (84)

Price at 72nd (103)

(MLB SP'ers with 50+ IP)

 

If you only count qualified SP'ers we rank:

3. Sale

23. Porcello

25. ERod (our 3rd "ace")

51. Price

 

[moonslav59]

So in a nutshell we need to help JDM boost his average enough to win the triple crown.

 

As long as we don't lower Mookie's, yes!

[OH FOY]

How would WAR factor in if Betts had a great at Bat like that and just walked? After all it wouldn't be a Official at Bat. And if he just walked would have been big too.

Not a WAR person, too many little things in the Course of the game, that would seem negative, but can win the game. I don't think gets factored in.

Every game so different.

Edited July 13, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

How would WAR factor in if Betts had a great at Bat like that and just walked? After all it wouldn't be a Official at Bat. And if he just walked would have been big too.

Not a WAR person, too many little things in the Course of the game, that would seem negative, but can win the game. I don't think gets factored in.

Every game so different.

 

Of course, no stat or metric incorporates everything into the result. War gets a lot of the big things.

 

On all those little things not captured, how do we know how many times other players do them in games we are not watching? Does anything show us who is best in those areas?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

What a joy it is to have a player like Mookie on our team. The night before he looked bad in his first 2 at bats, a weak pop up and a bad strike out. I remember when he stepped in for his 3rd at bat I thought "I'd bet $100 that he gets a hit this time" right before he ripped a double down the line. Then of course he got a hit his 4th trip just to remove all doubt.

[notin]

How would WAR factor in if Betts had a great at Bat like that and just walked? After all it wouldn't be a Official at Bat. And if he just walked would have been big too.

Not a WAR person, too many little things in the Course of the game, that would seem negative, but can win the game. I don't think gets factored in.

Every game so different.

 

Walks get factored into just about every offensive stat except batting average and slugging percentage. This includes OBP, OBA, wOBA, OPS, Runs Created and WAR...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Because records are meant to be spoken, with their 66th win last night the SOX broke the MLB record for most wins before the ASG.