How many wins?

[Larry Cook]

I am going with a 92 and 70 record.

[cp176]

94 and 68 for me. Substantially better than last year right.

[Maxbialystock]

After 17 votes, center of mass is 95 wins.

 

If we just factor in JD Martinez and his WAR (wins above replacement) last year of 4.2 and compare it to Ramirez's -0.3 WAR last year, that comparison alone accounts for at least 2 more wins in 2018 than in 2017. That's if you buy WAR, which many don't, even though it's a handy rough measure of overall value.

 

What's left out is the effect of the new manager. Will basically the same team as last year play better for Cora? It's possible if the discussion on talksox and some of the commentary have any legitimacy.

 

The other unknown of course is how much other teams have improved or not--about which I am clueless except for Stanton going to the Yankees.

[Maxbialystock]

The recent past, 2011 thru 2017, offers a cautionary tale about predicting the next season:

 

2011--90 wins, Francona fired, Epstein leaves, Cherington new GM

2012--69 wins, Valentine fired, Farrell hired

2013--97 wins and the WS

2014--71 wins

2015--78 wins, Cherington fired, Dombrowski hired

2016--93 wins

2017--93 wins, Farrell fired, Cora hired

[moonslav59]

Cora and JD should make a significant difference. Full years from Devers, Nunez, Carson Smith and others should help as well. Of course, we'll likely have others out, and we're already starting the season with Pedey, ERod, Pom and Wright out, but I expected a better season, overall, from our returning players anyways.

 

I wanted to vote for 96 wins, but I did not like the 96-101 bracket as much as 92-95, so I voted 92-95.

[Natick to NC]

Cora and JD should make a significant difference. Full years from Devers, Nunez, Carson Smith and others should help as well. Of course, we'll likely have others out, and we're already starting the season with Pedey, ERod, Pom and Wright out, but I expected a better season, overall, from our returning players anyways.

 

I wanted to vote for 96 wins, but I did not like the 96-101 bracket as much as 92-95, so I voted 92-95.

 

That's conservative of you .

[jacksonianmarch]

After 17 votes, center of mass is 95 wins.

 

If we just factor in JD Martinez and his WAR (wins above replacement) last year of 4.2 and compare it to Ramirez's -0.3 WAR last year, that comparison alone accounts for at least 2 more wins in 2018 than in 2017. That's if you buy WAR, which many don't, even though it's a handy rough measure of overall value.

 

What's left out is the effect of the new manager. Will basically the same team as last year play better for Cora? It's possible if the discussion on talksox and some of the commentary have any legitimacy.

 

The other unknown of course is how much other teams have improved or not--about which I am clueless except for Stanton going to the Yankees.

 

I predicted 192 wins between the sox and yanks. I think the Orioles will be a bit better this yr with Cobb anchoring the rotation and Tillman returning to what I’d expect to be better results. The Jays are a wild card since Stroman is currently out and Sanchez missed time with injury, but their top 4, if healthy, will be really good. Their offense, OTOH, will leave a lot to be desired. I see the Orioles as a .500 is team with 80-85 wins. I think the Jays could be as good as a 90 win club if all breaks right (and it already hasn’t with Stroman down) but could be as bad as a 70 win club if things go wrong again. The Rays are going to be absolutely terrible and will likely lose over 100 games. They’ve dealt off Odorizzi, Souza, Dickerson and Longoria. They lost Morrison to FA. They added some prospects and the ghost of Denard Span. Their rotation was decimated by injury after dealing away Odorizzi.

 

If the Jays are abysmal this yr, the Yanks and Sox will push for 100 wins. If the Jays stay healthy and contend, then that’ll be hard. You rarely see the 2016 NL Central or 2017 NL West occur with 3 teams making the playoffs. Eventually you start beating on each other and that 100 win Mark requires dominance basically throughout.

[d-money]

A lot of folks will pick the Yankees but what abou their rotation? I think we can compete for the division. It's a matter of getting off to a good start. I say we win the division in a close battle.

[moonslav59]

That's conservative of you .

 

Well, I've over-projected for 3-4 straight years, so...

[jacksonianmarch]

A lot of folks will pick the Yankees but what abou their rotation? I think we can compete for the division. It's a matter of getting off to a good start. I say we win the division in a close battle.

 

The sox might have the ace battle won, but our rotation is deeper

[cp176]

Sale - Price - Porcello - Pomeranz - Rodriguez - Johnson - Wright

 

Now now before I have to listen about all of the injuries and suspensions and how someone as in Johnson is a lifelong minor leaguer, let me just say that I like that group going forward. Right there we have the potential to have everything a team could need including depth. It of course is all about the health but it is the same for every team in ml baseball. No team is immune from injury.

[Jack Flap]

I'm saying 95 for now.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm saying 95 for now.

 

Oh sure, you can freely revise your estimate throughout the season.

[Michfan]

just 1 more than everyone else

[d-money]

We will win 94 games and win the division from the hyped Yankees. That's my prediction.

[Kimmi]

My rational side says 95 wins for the Red Sox, which is the way that I voted, though my heart wants to say 97 wins.

[Maxbialystock]

My rational side says 95 wins for the Red Sox, which is the way that I voted, though my heart wants to say 97 wins.

 

97 should not be that irrational because the core of this year's team won 93 last year. The biggest difference in the lineup is basically JD Martinez for Moreland with Ramirez going to 1B. Nunez is new, but actually played a lot last year and should not be a big step down from Pedroia at 2B. One presumes Cora is a plus.

 

The rotation is missing 3 right now (Rodriguez, Pom, Wright), but still has 2 of the best in Sale and Price. Plus Porcello, who was great in 2016 and horrible last year. I am not a Pom fan, but his numbers say I'm wrong. ERod has always shown promise. Wright had just the one good partial season, 2016, but showed the knuckler can work. Bullpen should be fine.

 

That said, I too went with 92-95.

Edited March 26, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

If I were to pick one source of talksox unease about 2018, it would be this. Last year the Sox pitching was better than the Sox hitting, and this year is likely to be the same. That is a big change in the John Henry era when hitting has been so dominant, and I think it's because of Dombrowski. The point is, we have always had great hitting.

[Kimmi]

97 should not be that irrational because the core of this year's team won 93 last year. The biggest difference in the lineup is basically JD Martinez for Moreland with Ramirez going to 1B. Nunez is new, but actually played a lot last year and should not be a big step down from Pedroia at 2B. One presumes Cora is a plus.

 

The rotation is missing 3 right now (Rodriguez, Pom, Wright), but still has 2 of the best in Sale and Price. Plus Porcello, who was great in 2016 and horrible last year. I am not a Pom fan, but his numbers say I'm wrong. ERod has always shown promise. Wright had just the one good partial season, 2016, but showed the knuckler can work. Bullpen should be fine.

 

That said, I too went with 92-95.

 

I don't think 97 wins is irrational, or even unrealistic. I just think it will be closer to 95 wins, mainly because the Yankees will be tough, and the Rays and Os always play us tough, even when they have weak teams.

 

I'm not concerned about our offense.

 

If our starting rotation stays healthy, look out.

[Spudboy]

I don't think 97 wins is irrational, or even unrealistic. I just think it will be closer to 95 wins, mainly because the Yankees will be tough, and the Rays and Os always play us tough, even when they have weak teams.

 

I'm not concerned about our offense.

 

If our starting rotation stays healthy, look out.

 

Certainly the rotation health is critical.

 

But if this team is to win 95 to 97 games the health of position players will be key. Last year two of our top hitters had early injuries that apparently inhibited their performance at the plate.

 

Those two are now healthy and smacking the s*** out of the ball. We need that all season long.

[Kimmi]

Certainly the rotation health is critical.

 

But if this team is to win 95 to 97 games the health of position players will be key. Last year two of our top hitters had early injuries that apparently inhibited their performance at the plate.

 

Those two are now healthy and smacking the s*** out of the ball. We need that all season long.

 

Absolutely Spud. The health of our position players is just as important as the health of our pitchers.

 

I guess I'm just a little more concerned about the ability of our starters to stay healthy than I am about our position players.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree that the health of both the rotation and lineup are important, but I thought our biggest problem last year was no Ortiz. And even there we still won the same number of games, 93, as in Ortiz's last year.

 

I do like the hitting this year. Also the rotation even though 3 are currently on the DL.

 

I could be wrong, but I think only three hitters--Betts, Martinez, and Devers--need to stay healthy. Beni might be a 4th. As for the rotation, just two--Sale and Price.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your lineup needs to stay healthy. I get your optimism, but Martinez puts the sox in the same ballpark as the Yankees offensively, but NYY have the depth to overcome injury outside of their big 3. The sox depth outside of their starting 9 isn’t strong, especially with Nunez pressed into starting duty at the outset

[Maxbialystock]

Of mild interest: espn just polled their "experts" and picked these six teams to win the six divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers. Of the six, only the AL East is expected in any way to be contested (by the Sox of course). They basically say the other five divisions are already sewed up before the season starts. The Sox are easily the top pick for the AL Wild Card.

 

Cora was asked how he thinks the Sox will be this year and answered they already had the best ST record in MLB. Of 30 MLB teams, the Sox in ST were ranked 2d in ERA and 12th in runs scored. Also 29th in stolen bases with 14 (vs. 11 CS). Most doubles, however, with 82.

[Bellhorn04]

Of mild interest: espn just polled their "experts" and picked these six teams to win the six divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers. Of the six, only the AL East is expected in any way to be contested (by the Sox of course). They basically say the other five divisions are already sewed up before the season starts. The Sox are easily the top pick for the AL Wild Card.

 

I would take the baseball IQ of the people who post here over that of the ESPN experts.

[Spudboy]

I would take the baseball IQ of the people who post here over that of the ESPN experts.

 

Lol. I would too.

[Kimmi]

Of mild interest: espn just polled their "experts" and picked these six teams to win the six divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers. Of the six, only the AL East is expected in any way to be contested (by the Sox of course). They basically say the other five divisions are already sewed up before the season starts. The Sox are easily the top pick for the AL Wild Card.

 

Cora was asked how he thinks the Sox will be this year and answered they already had the best ST record in MLB. Of 30 MLB teams, the Sox in ST were ranked 2d in ERA and 12th in runs scored. Also 29th in stolen bases with 14 (vs. 11 CS). Most doubles, however, with 82.

 

There is too much hype surrounding the Yankees, which IMO, is bad news for the Yankees.

[Natick to NC]

Is ESPN a sports place ??? Or a slanted political rag ? can't decide ....never watch it unless Celtics ,Bruins ,pats ,Redsox are on ....and then mostly turn off sound .

[iortiz]

If Price posts vintage Price numbers and stays healthy, and Porcello performs as a decent No. 3, we will win the division.

 

I expect a solid year again from Sale and Pom. Rodriguez, Wright and the rest are a mystery to me.

[MADSTORK]

86 and that is a gift