Spring Training 2018 Thread

moonslav59 · March 18, 2018

What does Travis getting his shot have to do with the cliff?

If Hanley and Moreland are not performing and Travis is, he will get his chance. If Hanley and Moreland are hitting, Travis will be blocked.

I think the point is that we need a prospect to step up at a position where we lose someone next year, in order to maximize the benefit. Moreland is signed next year, and if several posters get their way, HRam will be back, too, no matter how well Travis is doing.

cp176 · March 18, 2018

I think the point is that we need a prospect to step up at a position where we lose someone next year, in order to maximize the benefit. Moreland is signed next year, and if several posters get their way, HRam will be back, too, no matter how well Travis is doing.

Once again Moon, I don't really think that it is a matter of anyone wanting to have Hanley Ramirez back next year badly. It will certainly depend on a few things having to go very right for him if he does. Personally, I would love to see Sam Travis progress to the point that he could step right in to that first base role. As he will probably be this year, Moreland would continue to provide a capable backup. Jerking Ramirez around or somehow letting him know up front (which certainly would be the better of the two in my book) keeping him from getting enough at bats in my estimation would be a piss poor way to run a business. I'm in great hope that this org. is above that kind of rinky dink crap. If that's the game plan, which I do not think it is, release him now!

moonslav59 · March 18, 2018

Once again Moon, I don't really think that it is a matter of anyone wanting to have Hanley Ramirez back next year badly. It will certainly depend on a few things having to go very right for him if he does. Personally, I would love to see Sam Travis progress to the point that he could step right in to that first base role. As he will probably be this year, Moreland would continue to provide a capable backup. Jerking Ramirez around or somehow letting him know up front (which certainly would be the better of the two in my book) keeping him from getting enough at bats in my estimation would be a piss poor way to run a business. I'm in great hope that this org. is above that kind of rinky dink crap. If that's the game plan, which I do not think it is, release him now!

HRam does not have the right to play, especially vs RHPs. One could certainly justify starting the season with a strict platoon: Moreland vs RHPs and HRam vs LHPs... not becuase of HRam's option, but because of the 3 year numbers by both players. When we signed Moreland, I thought that was the plan. If we paid $6.5M x 2 for a strict back-up 1Bman, then the deal sucked more than I thought at the time.

2015-2017

vs RHPs

.782 Moreland

.767 HRam

(last 2 years shows HRam with better numbers vs RHPs .783 to .746)

I don't see this as rinky dinky. I thought the signing of Moreland was actually meant to improve our team by allowing him to play.

Look, I hated the Moreland signing, but those here who liked or loved it, and I think you liked the signing, seem to now want to keep him from playing.

Sure, if HRam starts to rake vs RHPs, he'll play, but shouldn't he have to earn that first? I'd start the season off holding my nose and starting Moreland vs at least half the RH'd starters. If you consider Moreland to be even with Hram vs RHPs, his fielding at 1B gives him the clear and justifiable edge. That's what we signed him for.

We want to be careful with HRam's feelings, but what about Moreland's?

Bellhorn04 · March 18, 2018

HRam does not have the right to play, especially vs RHPs. One could certainly justify starting the season with a strict platoon: Moreland vs RHPs and HRam vs LHPs... not becuase of HRam's option, but because of the 3 year numbers by both players. When we signed Moreland, I thought that was the plan. If we paid $6.5M x 2 for a strict back-up 1Bman, then the deal sucked more than I thought at the time.

2015-2017
vs RHPs
.782 Moreland
.767 HRam

(last 2 years shows HRam with better numbers vs RHPs .783 to .746)

I don't see this as rinky dinky. I thought the signing of Moreland was actually meant to improve our team by allowing him to play.

Look, I hated the Moreland signing, but those here who liked or loved it, and I think you liked the signing, seem to now want to keep him from playing.

Sure, if HRam starts to rake vs RHPs, he'll play, but shouldn't he have to earn that first? I'd start the season off holding my nose and starting Moreland vs at least half the RH'd starters. If you consider Moreland to be even with Hram vs RHPs, his fielding at 1B gives him the clear and justifiable edge. That's what we signed him for.

We want to be careful with HRam's feelings, but what about Moreland's?

Moreland will get playing time.

In the games that JDM plays the outfield, Hanley will DH and Moreland will play first, presumably.

Cora has options and I'm sure he'll figure it all out.

cp176 · March 18, 2018

HRam does not have the right to play, especially vs RHPs. One could certainly justify starting the season with a strict platoon: Moreland vs RHPs and HRam vs LHPs... not becuase of HRam's option, but because of the 3 year numbers by both players. When we signed Moreland, I thought that was the plan. If we paid $6.5M x 2 for a strict back-up 1Bman, then the deal sucked more than I thought at the time.

2015-2017
vs RHPs
.782 Moreland
.767 HRam

(last 2 years shows HRam with better numbers vs RHPs .783 to .746)

I don't see this as rinky dinky. I thought the signing of Moreland was actually meant to improve our team by allowing him to play.

Look, I hated the Moreland signing, but those here who liked or loved it, and I think you liked the signing, seem to now want to keep him from playing.

Sure, if HRam starts to rake vs RHPs, he'll play, but shouldn't he have to earn that first? I'd start the season off holding my nose and starting Moreland vs at least half the RH'd starters. If you consider Moreland to be even with Hram vs RHPs, his fielding at 1B gives him the clear and justifiable edge. That's what we signed him for.

We want to be careful with HRam's feelings, but what about Moreland's?

Sorry Moon i really do hate to do this to you but you are starting to sound a little too much like notin for me. You are kind of making it sound like my statement had anything to with feelings. it did not. I so not care at all about the feelings of overpaid pampered professional baseball players. Not one bit. Probably I should have been clearer. I want the Sox to be a cleanly run organization. I'll say again it will be absolutely a bad way to run a business if it becomes known that the Red Sox are sitting Ramirez simply so the option does not vest without letting him know upfront what they are doing. That is my opinion. I know that it isn't particularly a popular one here and I don't care. In my world, there really isn't much that is more important than the way you treat people whether you like them or not.

harmony · March 18, 2018

I think that if Sam keeps plugging along, he will get his chance. if his power numbers really start to look like they are for real, he may get his chance sooner as opposed to later. I hope now I get to hear how blocked he is because we have Hanley and Mitch ahead of him with their disastrous contracts and oh how f***ed we are because the cliff is coming and our glory daze are numbered and blah blah blah blah - ******** - think I said that a few times before.

A year ago on this forum I suggested that Sam Travis was a mirror image of Seattle's Dan Vogelbach, another defensively limited first baseman and former teammate of Kyle Schwarber (Travis at Indiana University and Vogelbach with the 2015 Double A Tennessee Smokies).

The 2018 projections are similar for Travis and Vogelbach, who were born about eight months apart and who each remain under team control for six seasons:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14130&position=1B

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16263&position=1B

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/travisa01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vogelb000dan

Each has displayed power this spring, posting these numbers entering Sunday's games:

ST 47 PA, .267/.298/.622/.920

DV 51 PA, .400/.529/.850/1.379

Vogelbach may get his shot to start at first base as projected starter Ryon Healy recovers from hand surgery.

Spudboy · March 18, 2018

I get it. You don't like him.

All I said is that he ended up with a solid outing, which he did.

It's true a700 says few complimentary things about Porcello.

It's also true that a700 has repeatedly said many true things about Porcello as he has done with this post.

Porcello doe not look ready to go or anywhere near it.

jd98 · March 18, 2018

Cliff Theory:

Here's the Sox lineup in 2021 without any moves:

Rotation:

Price
EROD
Jay Groome
Bryan Mata
Tanner Houck.

You have two proven MLB starters there. One has been a little lackluster the last few years, on the wrong side of his prime and will be 35 in 2021. Erod is the 2nd best pitcher in this bunch and he could be good by then, but he's also had a hard time staying healthy as a youngster so he could easily be the next Clay giving you 15 great starts a year and then getting injured by the time he's 28. Best case scenario is he's your #1 starter, and while I think he has good potential, he's never going to be as good as Chris Sale.

The next 3 are prospects who have not pitched above low A ball. Yes, they have potential, but even in a system that has a knack for turning out pitching prospects, more fail than succeed. If you're lucky two of those guys are MLB pitchers with one of those two being a servicable reliever.

Without a clean bill of health and an unprecedented hit on prospects that rotation is going to need 3-4 more names in a couple years.

The lineup:

Swihart
S Travis
Pedroia
Devers
Chatham
Aneury Tavarez
Benintendi
Cole Brennan
Michael Chavis

Call me a donny downer but I don't see Pedroia being a healthy contributor at 37 years old. The only guys who have confidence being good at this point in time are Benintendi and Devers. Maybe you get some luck with guys like Swihart turning it around and perhaps a guy like Brennan emerges but you are still likely going to have 4-5 big holes on the field.

The bullpen:

Matt Barnes is the only guy on this team who will still be there. The only real potential I see for a shutdown reliever in our system is Tanner Houck, but that means you also have one more definite hole in the rotation by then as well.

Your payroll then is going to be $133...

I'm assuming you're just using b-ref's projected salary since it has the same number. The first problem is they are including JD and you are assuming he leaves, so subtract $19M. The other problem is they are counting 27 arb players at an avg of about $2.75M each. There will not be 27 arb players on the 40-man. Some will be replaced with pre-arb guys (at b-ref projected $750k), and some will be replaced with post-arb players which will add an unknown amount but remove an avg of $2.75M for the guys they replace. Removing these arb players to match the makeup of the current 40-man (18 pre-arb, 13 arb, 9 post arb (best I can tell, may be slightly off)), removes about $32.5M. That brings the starting payroll down to around $81.5M, while needing to add in 7 post-arb guys. Doesn't seem so bad.

Edited March 18, 2018 by jd98

Spudboy · March 18, 2018

A year ago on this forum I suggested that Sam Travis was a mirror image of Seattle's Dan Vogelbach, another defensively limited first baseman and former teammate of Kyle Schwarber (Travis at Indiana University and Vogelbach with the 2015 Double A Tennessee Smokies).

The 2018 projections are similar for Travis and Vogelbach, who were born about eight months apart and who each remain under team control for six seasons:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14130&position=1B

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16263&position=1B

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/travisa01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vogelb000dan

Each has displayed power this spring, posting these numbers entering Sunday's games:

ST 47 PA, .267/.298/.622/.920
DV 51 PA, .400/.529/.850/1.379

Vogelbach may get his shot to start at first base as projected starter Ryon Healy recovers from hand surgery.

He makes all the plays at 1st base. I don't see his defense as lacking in any way, so far.

Hugh2 · March 18, 2018

I'm assuming you're just using b-ref's projected salary since it has the same number. The first problem is they are including JD and you are assuming he leaves, so subtract $19M. The other problem is they are counting 27 arb players at an avg of about $2.75M each. There will not be 27 arb players on the 40-man. Some will be replaced with pre-arb guys (at b-ref projected $750k), and some will be replaced with post-arb players which will add an unknown amount but remove an avg of $2.75M for the guys they replace. Removing these arb players to match the makeup of the current 40-man (18 pre-arb, 13 arb, 9 post arb (best I can tell, may be slightly off)), removes about $32.5M. That brings the starting payroll down to around $81.5M, while needing to add in 7 post-arb guys. Doesn't seem so bad.

I forgot to subtract JDM money but I believe my point still stands. If that money is off the books then you're losing JDM along with Sale, Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Vasquez, Moreland, Hanley, Porcello, Pomeranz, and Kimbrell.

Yes, I agree that not all those guys are going to be getting paid in arbitration, that is a GREAT point. However, it could also not break down the way you think. Those arbitration guys might not be getting replaced with pre-arbitration guys, they are more likely to be replaced with contracts signed in FA because the system doesn't have any real talent in it right now aside from several guys. For other guys to come up and take the place of the more expensive arby guys you need to have a strong farm system and that was 1/2 of my point. Our farm is extremely weak.

EDIT: with your point in mind we can up from 3-4 premium players added over the next 3 years. If we're staying in house that means we can sign Sale, Porcello, Betts, and Bogaerts. But it's probably likely 3 guys because replacing a closer, a BOTRS, a few role players etc etc etc really adds up too. Perhaps an alternative term for cliff that might make it easier for some people would be "potential tricky roster construction ahead"

Edited March 18, 2018 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

harmony · March 18, 2018

He makes all the plays at 1st base. I don't see his defense as lacking in any way, so far.

I assume the vague pronoun refers to Sam Travis, who received this note in a scouting report last May:

Listed at 6-0, 205, Travis is a right-handed hitter and thrower born August 27, 1993. His glove at first base is adequate at best; he catches what he get to, but lacks range and agility and doesn’t run or throw well enough to be attractive as a potential outfielder.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/23/15682370/sam-travis-1b-boston-red-sox

Coincidentally, Dan Vogelbach's defense has received positive reviews this spring:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/3/14/17123240/daniel-vogelbachs-defense-saves-the-day-mariners-win-5-4-shortstopbach-forever

https://sodomojo.com/2018/03/17/sodo-mojos-seattle-mariners-round-table-spring-training/

Kimmi · March 18, 2018

I think the point is that we need a prospect to step up at a position where we lose someone next year, in order to maximize the benefit. Moreland is signed next year, and if several posters get their way, HRam will be back, too, no matter how well Travis is doing.

I don't think there is anyone who is really all out hoping that Hanley is back next year. In other words, saying that if 'several posters get their way' is really a strawman argument. All we're saying is that his option won't vest unless he is hitting very well, and if he is hitting very well, having his option vest won't be the worst thing in the world.

Travis will get his shot if he shows that he deserves to be on the big league roster above Hanley or Moreland.

Spudboy · March 18, 2018

I assume the vague pronoun refers to Sam Travis, who received this note in a scouting report last May:

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/23/15682370/sam-travis-1b-boston-red-sox

Coincidentally, Dan Vogelbach's defense has received positive reviews this spring:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/3/14/17123240/daniel-vogelbachs-defense-saves-the-day-mariners-win-5-4-shortstopbach-forever

https://sodomojo.com/2018/03/17/sodo-mojos-seattle-mariners-round-table-spring-training/

Again, from what I have seen over the past two years ( maybe a couple of dozen games) he has shown no glaring weakness defensively at 1st.

I trust my eyes.

cp176 · March 18, 2018

Again, from what I have seen over the past two years ( maybe a couple of dozen games) he has shown no glaring weakness defensively at 1st.

I trust my eyes.

Cora says he is pretty damn good also. Works for me.

moonslav59 · March 19, 2018

Sorry Moon i really do hate to do this to you but you are starting to sound a little too much like notin for me. You are kind of making it sound like my statement had anything to with feelings. it did not. I so not care at all about the feelings of overpaid pampered professional baseball players. Not one bit. Probably I should have been clearer. I want the Sox to be a cleanly run organization. I'll say again it will be absolutely a bad way to run a business if it becomes known that the Red Sox are sitting Ramirez simply so the option does not vest without letting him know upfront what they are doing. That is my opinion. I know that it isn't particularly a popular one here and I don't care. In my world, there really isn't much that is more important than the way you treat people whether you like them or not.

The way HRam has been playing for us, he's owed nothing.

Moreland's been better or equal to HRam on offense vs RHPs, and he's a better defender by a long shot.

I don't see playing Moreland vs 30-50% of RH'd starters as "the wrong thing to do," even if HRam had not vesting option.

My view may change, if HRam is way outplaying Moreland vs righties, but I'll speak to that, if and when it happens.

(By the way, I think notin is one of the smartest and most insightful posters on this board... next to maybe you. Thanks for the compliment, even if unintended. )

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

HRam is owed nothing. He signed on the dotted line to play a position he didn't know how to in one of the more difficult environments on the planet (especially with Fenway's LF). He was a square peg for a round hole since he signed and now that continues. It was a stupid contract that keeps on getting dumber. Even if HRam is vintage and hitting the ever loving s*** out of the ball, they HAVE to limit his PAs. A non elite masher without a glove has about a $5-$6 mil market in 2018 dollars. You cannot afford to run up against the cap with Hanley at his advanced age and now out of position again for 2019. You just cannot.

moonslav59 · March 19, 2018

I don't think there is anyone who is really all out hoping that Hanley is back next year. In other words, saying that if 'several posters get their way' is really a strawman argument. All we're saying is that his option won't vest unless he is hitting very well, and if he is hitting very well, having his option vest won't be the worst thing in the world.

Travis will get his shot if he shows that he deserves to be on the big league roster above Hanley or Moreland.

My choice of wording was wrong and inflamatory. I apologize.

My point about Travis maybe being someone who steps up and wrestles a FT job away from HRam?Moreland was that it doean't really help our budget for 1 to 2 years. If we had a SP'er step up and win a slot, then we'd save bigtime on not having to re-sign or replace Pom with a FA. Same with someone to replace Smith or Thornburg as they move into Kimbrel's vacated slot in the pen.

The areas we need the most Immediate help look barren on the farm (SP3, RP2, RP4)

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

Slav, my guess is you replace Pom on the open market (maybe re-sign Pom) and let Kimbrel walk with a QO in hand. Your pen has some guys returning who can back end a pitching staff. Your system otherwise has absolutely nobody who can step up into the #3 role and be effective unless you think Wright can be good again or Johnson is anything more than a nothing

moonslav59 · March 19, 2018

HRam is owed nothing. He signed on the dotted line to play a position he didn't know how to in one of the more difficult environments on the planet (especially with Fenway's LF). He was a square peg for a round hole since he signed and now that continues. It was a stupid contract that keeps on getting dumber. Even if HRam is vintage and hitting the ever loving s*** out of the ball, they HAVE to limit his PAs. A non elite masher without a glove has about a $5-$6 mil market in 2018 dollars. You cannot afford to run up against the cap with Hanley at his advanced age and now out of position again for 2019. You just cannot.

At the time we signed HRam, I thought he was going to be our new 3Bman, then the shocking Pablo signing rattled my bones.

Many experts felt we got HRam for cheap, but I'm fine with judging signings in hindsight, as long as we do it consistently.

It was a bad signing. We needed pitching more, at the time, but we did still need hitting. I could see the reasoning behind waiting for the following winter, when big starters were plentiful on the market. In hindsight, the signing was very bad.

I'm actually one of the few posters who thinks HRam will do well this year, but since Moreland is a better defender, by far, and he does pretty well vs RHPs, so I'd give Moreland a significant amounnt of playing time at 1B vs righties. That should keep HRam from vesting, but there's reason enough to do it, even if HRam did not have the vesting option.

HRam will have to be having a hell of a season, including vs righties, for me to play him enough to get 497 PAs, which is just 56 more than we gave him last year.

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

Even if he is unconscious in 2018 and hitting every ball he sees out of the park, he isn't seeing 497PAs.

cp176 · March 19, 2018

The way HRam has been playing for us, he's owed nothing.

Moreland's been better or equal to HRam on offense vs RHPs, and he's a better defender by a long shot.

I don't see playing Moreland vs 30-50% of RH'd starters as "the wrong thing to do," even if HRam had not vesting option.

My view may change, if HRam is way outplaying Moreland vs righties, but I'll speak to that, if and when it happens.

(By the way, I think notin is one of the smartest and most insightful posters on this board... next to maybe you. Thanks for the compliment, even if unintended. )

My opinion obviously is going to stay the same. i'm not arguing whether Hanley is owed anything at all. My point would be all about ethics, integrity, and honesty. That's it. As for where anyone stands on the intellectual scale moon - it has become fairly obvious to me that if you wanted to know how bright notin is all you would have to do is ask him. As for me - oh well - it doesn't really matter to me much whether people posting on this site think I am a fool or the court jester even. Like many others here I'm sure, I had a successful career and I am very proud of that. Trying to make others think that I am bright, not my style. I'm comfortable with my intellect. Heres to you and your brilliant friend.

moonslav59 · March 19, 2018

Slav, my guess is you replace Pom on the open market (maybe re-sign Pom) and let Kimbrel walk with a QO in hand. Your pen has some guys returning who can back end a pitching staff. Your system otherwise has absolutely nobody who can step up into the #3 role and be effective unless you think Wright can be good again or Johnson is anything more than a nothing

I'm a big Wright fan, but I'm not penciling him in as Pom's replacement next year.

If we have HRam's contract on the books next year, we can't keep Pom or replace him (in kind) through free agency. We just can't.

The arb raises will eat up Kimbrel's lost contract ($13M), and we can save $4M by trading or DFA'ing Holt and Leon next winter to pay for the rest of the arb raises and Sale's $1M option raise.

That leaves Pom's $8.5M and Kelly's $3.9M coming off the books and needing replacement. Assuming we stay near $39M over the luxury tax again, maybe not a good assumption, we will not be able to sign anyone as good as these two for the same money. Assume we can replace Kimbrel and Kelly from within the system, maybe a pen like this:

C Smith

R2 Thornburg

R3 Barnes

R4 Workman

R5 Scott

R6 Hembree

R7 Maddox/Elias/Buttrey or maybe Wright

...that leaves about $12M to replace Pom. Maybe a Lance Lynn type will go for $12M again next year, but who knows?

I can't see us getting close to resetting the luxury tax, even when we lose Pablo's money. Things look similar after 2019 as well..

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

Ethics, integrity and honesty have a price in baseball. $17 mil more than expected value is a ton of money and business ethics will get blurred

cp176 · March 19, 2018

Ethics, integrity and honesty have a price in baseball. $17 mil more than expected value is a ton of money and business ethics will get blurred

Evidently in your world that is how it works. You are entitled to that opinion.

moonslav59 · March 19, 2018

My opinion obviously is going to stay the same. i'm not arguing whether Hanley is owed anything at all. My point would be all about ethics, integrity, and honesty. That's it. As for where anyone stands on the intellectual scale moon - it has become fairly obvious to me that if you wanted to know how bright notin is all you would have to do is ask him. As for me - oh well - it doesn't really matter to me much whether people posting on this site think I am a fool or the court jester even. Like many others here I'm sure, I had a successful career and I am very proud of that. Trying to make others think that I am bright, not my style. I'm comfortable with my intellect. Heres to you and your brilliant friend.

I'm just saying what I think. I'm not saying good thinsg about you and notin to pump you guys up. I really think both of you bring a lot to the conversation and make me rethink my own opinions and philosophy about Red Sox baseball.

I can see the point that if HRam truly deserves to play over Moreland vs just about all RHPs and every LHPs, and we short him to keep him from vesting, it would be an ethical issue and might hamper future signings with clauses like that from happening here, but to me, HRam would have to be the clear choice for me to let him vest. If there's any gray area, I'm going with Moreland, Swihart, Nunez or JD at 1B or DH over HRam which would keep HRam under 497.

I respect your opinion and do think you're bright, despite disagreeing with me on many issues.

:rolleyes:

cp176 · March 19, 2018

Ethics, integrity and honesty have a price in baseball. $17 mil more than expected value is a ton of money and business ethics will get blurred

Oh and by the way, I realize that I'm standing kind of alone on this too. I'm thinking that I might see the world a little differently. Maybe I just don't get out much.

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

I'm a big Wright fan, but I'm not penciling him in as Pom's replacement next year.

If we have HRam's contract on the books next year, we can't keep Pom or replace him (in kind) through free agency. We just can't.

The arb raises will eat up Kimbrel's lost contract ($13M), and we can save $4M by trading or DFA'ing Holt and Leon next winter to pay for the rest of the arb raises and Sale's $1M option raise.

That leaves Pom's $8.5M and Kelly's $3.9M coming off the books and needing replacement. Assuming we stay near $39M over the luxury tax again, maybe not a good assumption, we will not be able to sign anyone as good as these two for the same money. Assume we can replace Kimbrel and Kelly from within the system, maybe a pen like this:

C Smith
R2 Thornburg
R3 Barnes
R4 Workman
R5 Scott
R6 Hembree
R7 Maddox/Elias/Buttrey or maybe Wright

...that leaves about $12M to replace Pom. Maybe a Lance Lynn type will go for $12M again next year, but who knows?

I can't see us getting close to resetting the luxury tax, even when we lose Pablo's money. Things look similar after 2019 as well..

Resetting the lux tax just isn't happening. The market was down this yr for a variety of reasons, but by the time the sox have to spend, the market will be back up, I promise you that. Now, assume the sox don't get the opt out from JD or Price and they stay forever. You currently sit right against the upper limit, which I am sure you aren't going to go past. Let's see who comes off the next few years

After 2018

Kimbrel $13 mil

Pomeranz $8.5 mil

Kelly $3.5 mil

Hanley $22 mil

Nunez $2 mil ($4 mil contract in 2018 but $2 mil buyout in 2019)

Arbitration raises will eat Hanley's unnecessary contract. You will replace Pomeranz or Kimbrel, most likely Pom. Kimbrel walks after declining a QO and allows the sox to add some much needed talent. Nunez will need replacing if Pedroia doesn't return well.

After 2019

Porcello $20.75 mil

Sale $13.5 mil

Bogaerts $XX

Panda $19 mil

Thornburg $XX

I anticipate you'll try to re-sign Sale and it will take Porcello and Sale's 2019 contracts together to bring him back. If Bogaerts continues as a 3-4WAR SS and doesn't take the next step, he is still a $20 mil per annum player. If he puts it together and has a .300 25HR season, he'll be worth more. Thornburg will either be your closer or setup man if he returns to health. He is likely gone. You'll have a second spot to replace which will eat the last of your cap space.

After 2020

Benintendi and Devers are into their arb years. You've managed to keep Sale, re-sign Pomeranz or someone of his ilk and get a 5th starter on the cheap. Kimbrel and Thornburg are into their tenures with another club. You've managed to keep the window open. Betts and Bradley are FAs after 2020. Pedroia, Martinez, and Price are still on the books. With Beni starting to cost money and Devers costing something, the minor losses of the other guys finishing their rookie contracts is eaten up. If Bradley doesn't keep hitting, then he is an easy release. But re-signing Betts will likely force you to use all the available space at that point.

After 2020, if DD keeps the family together...

Price $31 mil AAV

Pedroia $12 mil

Martinez $21 mil

Betts $30 mil

Sale $32 mil

Bogaerts $20 mil

Pomeranz $18 mil

Before you know it, you're $164 mil deep with just 7 players. This is the cliff

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

And guys, I am not so naïve to think my team will face a similar process if we "go for it". Right now, we have a lights out system with depth that is big league ready. If we nurture that and keep the right players, we can keep this thing rolling while paying the right guys and letting others walk

moonslav59 · March 19, 2018

Resetting the lux tax just isn't happening. The market was down this yr for a variety of reasons, but by the time the sox have to spend, the market will be back up, I promise you that. Now, assume the sox don't get the opt out from JD or Price and they stay forever. You currently sit right against the upper limit, which I am sure you aren't going to go past. Let's see who comes off the next few years

After 2018
Kimbrel $13 mil
Pomeranz $8.5 mil
Kelly $3.5 mil
Hanley $22 mil
Nunez $2 mil ($4 mil contract in 2018 but $2 mil buyout in 2019)
Arbitration raises will eat Hanley's unnecessary contract. You will replace Pomeranz or Kimbrel, most likely Pom. Kimbrel walks after declining a QO and allows the sox to add some much needed talent. Nunez will need replacing if Pedroia doesn't return well.

After 2019
Porcello $20.75 mil
Sale $13.5 mil
Bogaerts $XX
Panda $19 mil
Thornburg $XX

I anticipate you'll try to re-sign Sale and it will take Porcello and Sale's 2019 contracts together to bring him back. If Bogaerts continues as a 3-4WAR SS and doesn't take the next step, he is still a $20 mil per annum player. If he puts it together and has a .300 25HR season, he'll be worth more. Thornburg will either be your closer or setup man if he returns to health. He is likely gone. You'll have a second spot to replace which will eat the last of your cap space.

After 2020
Benintendi and Devers are into their arb years. You've managed to keep Sale, re-sign Pomeranz or someone of his ilk and get a 5th starter on the cheap. Kimbrel and Thornburg are into their tenures with another club. You've managed to keep the window open. Betts and Bradley are FAs after 2020. Pedroia, Martinez, and Price are still on the books. With Beni starting to cost money and Devers costing something, the minor losses of the other guys finishing their rookie contracts is eaten up. If Bradley doesn't keep hitting, then he is an easy release. But re-signing Betts will likely force you to use all the available space at that point.

After 2020, if DD keeps the family together...
Price $31 mil AAV
Pedroia $12 mil
Martinez $21 mil
Betts $30 mil
Sale $32 mil
Bogaerts $20 mil
Pomeranz $18 mil

Before you know it, you're $164 mil deep with just 7 players. This is the cliff

I think we lose Bogey, but I agree with the rest, in general.

jacksonianmarch · March 19, 2018

If you lose Bogey, you'll need to spend to replace him. While he is inconsistent and hasn't reached his potential, he is still a very good SS. He's accumulated at least 3.2WAR the last 3 seasons. He will be paid handsomely

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