Spring Training 2018 Thread

[moonslav59]

"Might play more than Holt our Marrero" isn't much of a reason to keep him. And I'm sure Dombrowski feels that way too.

 

I do doubt he plays more than Moreland. Are you sorry of implying he will play better than Moreland? And hit better? I'm not much of a Midland fan, but that does seem a bit optimistic to me. ..

 

No, he may play more than Moreland, because he can play some at 3rd catcher, some LF and some 1B, while Moreland will only play 1B, if HRam is not raking. I did say that he "may" play more than Moreland, "if HRam is hot."

 

I don't think that implies he will hit (or play) better than Moreland, although I think he might.

[moonslav59]

Way to valuable to us more than anyone else ...Sandy or Vaz could very well get hurt and he can absolutely catch ...he had a good repoir with Porcello last night and Johnson he picked mannnny balls out in the dirt last night .I would bet you dollars to donuts that he makes this team easily .The bat is Quick as snot .Blake may very well break out verrrry soon .

 

We have two catchers who have relationships with our staff already established.

 

Teams with only 1 catcher or even just one questionable catcher may think Swihart has more value to them.

 

By saying Swihart has more value to us, seemingly implies you think Leon is the worst back-up catcher in MLB or that the Vaz-Leon tandem is worse than every other team.

 

IMO, Swihart has more value to a team looking to contend or rebuild, and that has worse catchers than Vaz/Leon. That might only be 5-10 teams, but those team should be looking at Swihart as a possible upgrade.

 

Again, I'm not for trading Swihart, but his value to us as a 1Bman and LF'er is pretty slight. Once Pedey comes back, Nunez will be our 4th OF'er with JD playing OF in NL parks. Unless and OF'er gets hurt, I don't see Swihart getting much OF time. His PAs at 1B depend largely on HRam's health and production and how well Moreland is doing. While both of those positions do hold some value to us, at least until Pedey returns, I think Swihart's value might be higher on another team.

 

Last year, 6 teams had a team catcher OPS of below .633. and 12 were under .702. (The Sox were at .693- ranked 20th, but due to good defense, we ranked 17th in WAR.)

[cp176]

If the offers aren't very good, that's fine. That's no rule that says Dombrowski has to accept any of them. I wouldn't go assuming you would hear about any worthwhile offers though. For example, it took months until before we heard the Guardians offered Encarnacion for Bradley.

 

The bottom line is, Swihart is very tradable, and may never look this good again. And dealing him in the right deal could solve multiple issues. There is no reason to be so close- minded to the possibility. He might be the next Mike Zunino. But he also might be the next Eric Wedge. And if he is the next Wedge, people will blast Dombrowski for not dealing him at the right time, just like they did with Garin Cecchini and any other prospect who didn't live up to the hype. ...

 

notin - really - now you are are kind of calling me close minded right after I said that I would consider trading almost any of them if the deal seemed to favor us. That is the key for us close minded guys. Has to favor our side.

[moonslav59]

Until I hear a name tied to a Swihart deal, I'm leaning towards holding onto him in hopes he begins to reach the potential many feelt he had just a few short years ago.

 

My hunch is that no current offer gives us something significant in an area of need (SP'er or LH'd RP'er).

 

I could see us trading Swihart and Hembree for a quality RP'er or not-so-quality 5th starter, but I want to have a look-see at not just Swihart but also Johnson and Velazquez.

[Spudboy]

Way to valuable to us more than anyone else ...Sandy or Vaz could very well get hurt and he can absolutely catch ...he had a good repoir with Porcello last night and Johnson he picked mannnny balls out in the dirt last night .I would bet you dollars to donuts that he makes this team easily .The bat is Quick as snot .Blake may very well break out verrrry soon .

 

Quick as snot?

 

Never heard that one before.

[moonslav59]

Quick as snot?

 

Never heard that one before.

 

I always thought snot moved rather slowly.

[notin]

Until I hear a name tied to a Swihart deal, I'm leaning towards holding onto him in hopes he begins to reach the potential many feelt he had just a few short years ago.

 

My hunch is that no current offer gives us something significant in an area of need (SP'er or LH'd RP'er).

 

I could see us trading Swihart and Hembree for a quality RP'er or not-so-quality 5th starter, but I want to have a look-see at not just Swihart but also Johnson and Velazquez.

 

A name would be good, Especially the name Robles, which won't happen But there are a few blogs out there with good and bad proposals...

[Natick to NC]

Snot forms quickly lol ok moving on ....Sam Travis !!! What a swing huh ?

[cp176]

Snot forms quickly lol ok moving on ....Sam Travis !!! What a swing huh ?

 

Are you from Maine? I've heard that expression from time to time up here. But - Anything does go up here.

[cp176]

How about Bobby Poyner? Has anybody even mentioned his name here. This is a guy that actually might help coming out of the pen.

[moonslav59]

How about Bobby Poyner? Has anybody even mentioned his name here. This is a guy that actually might help coming out of the pen.

 

I've mentioned Haley.

 

(Does that count?)

 

[moonslav59]

ST'ing OPS (20+ ABs)

 

The best...

1.290 Beni

.994 Bogey

.989 Swihart

.974 Devers

.920 Travis

.890 Vaz

.832 Holt

.801 Castillo

 

The so-so...

.795 de Jesus

.732 HRam

.700 Tavarez

.683 Betts

 

The worst...

.336 Selsky

.411 Lin

.507 Marrero

.573 JBJ

.609 Moreland

.634 e la Guerra

 

ERA (6+ IP)

0.90 Walden

1.00 Sale

1.23 Hembree

1.23 Poyner

1.29 Barnes

2.77 Haley

3.00 Smith

3.86 Johnson

4.15 Elias

4.91 Porcello

5.14 Workman

6.10 Velazquez

9.00 FRod

 

 

 

[Natick to NC]

ST'ing OPS (20+ ABs)

 

The best...

1.290 Beni

.994 Bogey

.989 Swihart

.974 Devers

.920 Travis

.890 Vaz

.832 Holt

.801 Castillo

 

The so-so...

.795 de Jesus

.732 HRam

.700 Tavarez

.683 Betts

 

The worst...

.336 Selsky

.411 Lin

.507 Marrero

.573 JBJ

.609 Moreland

.634 e la Guerra

 

ERA (6+ IP)

0.90 Walden

1.00 Sale

1.23 Hembree

1.23 Poyner

1.29 Barnes

2.77 Haley

3.00 Smith

3.86 Johnson

4.15 Elias

4.91 Porcello

5.14 Workman

6.10 Velazquez

9.00 FRod

 

 

 

 

JBJ ......I'm thinking this is make it or break it year for him as well...it's ST but dang that's depressing.Moon Thankyou for posting this .Who was it that wanted to trade for JBJ and Dave said no ? Moreland a tick better but yuck ....

Edited March 18, 2018 by Natick to NC

[cp176]

I've mentioned Haley.

 

(Does that count?)

 

 

No - Not Poyner then does not count. Cora is high on him and I get it.

[moonslav59]

JBJ ......I'm thinking this is make it or break it year for him as well...it's ST but dang that's depressing.Moon Thankyou for posting this .Who was it that wanted to trade for JBJ and Dave said no ? Moreland a tick better but yuck ....

 

JBJ is going to have his best season of his career.

 

Moreland will be the steady one once again... steady mediocrity with a glove.

[Natick to NC]

JBJ is going to have his best season of his career.

 

Moreland will be the steady one once again... steady mediocrity with a glove.

 

They beat you down huh Moon ? Hang in there only a few days left .I need a break also ,I have us trading Groome and Vaz for JT Realmutto and looking to upgrade Mitch at the break ....hell I have Swihart beating out Sandy for the 2 catchers position and us trading Leon ....I then have us getting Cobb...I need the season to start yesterday I'm going nuts with risky trades lol

[Natick to NC]

Blake plays 3b tomorrow ...pretty amazing player .

[notin]

They beat you down huh Moon ? Hang in there only a few days left .I need a break also ,I have us trading Groome and Vaz for JT Realmutto and looking to upgrade Mitch at the break ....hell I have Swihart beating out Sandy for the 2 catchers position and us trading Leon ....I then have us getting Cobb...I need the season to start yesterday I'm going nuts with risky trades lol

 

I'll make the boring prediction that none of those moves happen. I think the exciting left this off-season is demoting Holt to AAA

[Spudboy]

Snot forms quickly lol ok moving on ....Sam Travis !!! What a swing huh ?

 

Travis is prospect non grata here at Talksox.

 

I like his swing too.

[Larry Cook]

Watched Walden pitch today. Not bad! Ball came out really well. Intriguing!

[a700hitter]

He ended up with a very solid outing.

 

He just needs to find a way to get through the first inning unscathed.

His velocity is not there yet. Announcers said that some of his pitches were hitting 90-91, but mainly high 80’s. He just allows too many baserunners and gives up too many hits. He is a pitcher who pitches to a 1.4 WHIP which translates into a lot of runs. His outing wasn’t that solid. He was facing their B lineup— no Mauer, Dozier or Sano. He should have buzzsawed through them, but didn’t. So far this spring he has faced mainly B lineups and he has not dominated these bench and minor league hitters. He has struggled.

[moonslav59]

Travis is prospect non grata here at Talksox.

 

I like his swing too.

 

He's always had a nice swing. It looks like maybe he's found some power.

 

Too bad he's sqeezed out of 1B right now with $29M spent there this year.

[cp176]

Travis is prospect non grata here at Talksox.

 

I like his swing too.

 

I think that if Sam keeps plugging along, he will get his chance. if his power numbers really start to look like they are for real, he may get his chance sooner as opposed to later. I hope now I get to hear how blocked he is because we have Hanley and Mitch ahead of him with their disastrous contracts and oh how f***ed we are because the cliff is coming and our glory daze are numbered and blah blah blah blah - ******** - think I said that a few times before.

[cp176]

One more thing that I just don't get here, is why are some of our more prolific posters so hot to swing deals and make trades right now. We have a damned good team here. Why not just relax and enjoy watching the growth that we have. I hope that we hold a pat hand just as is. There is 0 not to like about this team.

[Kimmi]

His velocity is not there yet. Announcers said that some of his pitches were hitting 90-91, but mainly high 80’s. He just allows too many baserunners and gives up too many hits. He is a pitcher who pitches to a 1.4 WHIP which translates into a lot of runs. His outing wasn’t that solid. He was facing their B lineup— no Mauer, Dozier or Sano. He should have buzzsawed through them, but didn’t. So far this spring he has faced mainly B lineups and he has not dominated these bench and minor league hitters. He has struggled.

 

I get it. You don't like him.

 

All I said is that he ended up with a solid outing, which he did.

[Kimmi]

I think that if Sam keeps plugging along, he will get his chance. if his power numbers really start to look like they are for real, he may get his chance sooner as opposed to later. I hope now I get to hear how blocked he is because we have Hanley and Mitch ahead of him with their disastrous contracts and oh how f***ed we are because the cliff is coming and our glory daze are numbered and blah blah blah blah - ******** - think I said that a few times before.

 

What does Travis getting his shot have to do with the cliff?

 

If Hanley and Moreland are not performing and Travis is, he will get his chance. If Hanley and Moreland are hitting, Travis will be blocked.

[cp176]

What does Travis getting his shot have to do with the cliff?

 

If Hanley and Moreland are not performing and Travis is, he will get his chance. If Hanley and Moreland are hitting, Travis will be blocked.

 

It is a tired refrain for me that is all. I don't believe in the cliff theory. I thought you knew that. Doom and gloom - that is all it says to me. It wasn't directed at you so much as to the people who have consistently been whining about the Ramirez and Moreland contracts. Maybe I have said things differently but I certainly am not the first person to mention this and if it continues to be such a hot topic I will continue to make my feelings known.

[Hugh2]

Cliff Theory:

 

Here's the Sox lineup in 2021 without any moves:

 

Rotation:

 

Price

EROD

Jay Groome

Bryan Mata

Tanner Houck.

 

You have two proven MLB starters there. One has been a little lackluster the last few years, on the wrong side of his prime and will be 35 in 2021. Erod is the 2nd best pitcher in this bunch and he could be good by then, but he's also had a hard time staying healthy as a youngster so he could easily be the next Clay giving you 15 great starts a year and then getting injured by the time he's 28. Best case scenario is he's your #1 starter, and while I think he has good potential, he's never going to be as good as Chris Sale.

 

The next 3 are prospects who have not pitched above low A ball. Yes, they have potential, but even in a system that has a knack for turning out pitching prospects, more fail than succeed. If you're lucky two of those guys are MLB pitchers with one of those two being a servicable reliever.

 

Without a clean bill of health and an unprecedented hit on prospects that rotation is going to need 3-4 more names in a couple years.

 

The lineup:

 

Swihart

S Travis

Pedroia

Devers

Chatham

Aneury Tavarez

Benintendi

Cole Brennan

Michael Chavis

 

Call me a donny downer but I don't see Pedroia being a healthy contributor at 37 years old. The only guys who have confidence being good at this point in time are Benintendi and Devers. Maybe you get some luck with guys like Swihart turning it around and perhaps a guy like Brennan emerges but you are still likely going to have 4-5 big holes on the field.

 

The bullpen:

 

Matt Barnes is the only guy on this team who will still be there. The only real potential I see for a shutdown reliever in our system is Tanner Houck, but that means you also have one more definite hole in the rotation by then as well.

 

Your payroll then is going to be $133. It could be more like arbitration rises.

 

By my calculations, you have the capacity to sign 3 big time free agents over the next 3 years to fill these holes. But you will be losing: Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, JDM, maybe even Price. You will also be losing Kimbrel, Thornburg, and Smith.

 

In the minors you might replace one of these guys with this group of talent. You might get real lucky in the draft and get one college guy who can fly up the system in the mold of Andrew Benintendi or Jacoby Ellsbury. But you're talking about replacing most of your team with almost nothing in the pipeline and the money to only add a few premium guys.

 

The cliff isn't a certainty, no one knows what is going to happen, no one knows how prospects will develop, future trades that will take place, who will sign an extension, and who will drafted. The "cliff" is just a different way of saying things don't look good. Without something extraordinary happening it certainly looks like the team from years 2021-2023 will be a lot less star studed than 2018-2020 will be.

 

There could also be a huge bounce. The cliff could be a very real thing but you also might have a stacked farm again by the year 2021 and ready to rebuild a monster sometime in the 2022-2024 years. Maybe we win a world series or two over the next couple years, stink for a few years and then are competitors again. We don't really know. But the "cliff" is a real representation of the long term outlook of the system. Yes, we don't really know what is going to happen but talking about the cliff is a much better representation of the future than just shrugging ones shoulders and going "IDK...they'll figure it out" We're looking at the team in 2-3 years and looking at our system and weighing that vs. past precedent of how many prospects pan out and how often FA pans out. Without a lot of good fortune, the team has a big capacity to suck in a few years.

 

At the end of the day, I'm not going to stress about a game, I'm going to enjoy the next few years, but the concept of a cliff is very real.

[moonslav59]

I think that if Sam keeps plugging along, he will get his chance. if his power numbers really start to look like they are for real, he may get his chance sooner as opposed to later. I hope now I get to hear how blocked he is because we have Hanley and Mitch ahead of him with their disastrous contracts and oh how f***ed we are because the cliff is coming and our glory daze are numbered and blah blah blah blah - ******** - think I said that a few times before.

 

Yes, we can afford to bench $29M in 2018 and $6.5M or $29M in 2019, so Travis can get a look-see.

 

Yes, Travis could be one of those pieces we are looking for to get us beyond "the cliff", but too bad he won't give us any salary relief until 2020, assuming we let HRam vest like some here are unconcerned with.

[moonslav59]

Cliff Theory:

 

Here's the Sox lineup in 2021 without any moves:

 

Rotation:

 

Price

EROD

Jay Groome

Bryan Mata

Tanner Houck.

 

You have two proven MLB starters there. One has been a little lackluster the last few years, on the wrong side of his prime and will be 35 in 2021. Erod is the 2nd best pitcher in this bunch and he could be good by then, but he's also had a hard time staying healthy as a youngster so he could easily be the next Clay giving you 15 great starts a year and then getting injured by the time he's 28. Best case scenario is he's your #1 starter, and while I think he has good potential, he's never going to be as good as Chris Sale.

 

The next 3 are prospects who have not pitched above low A ball. Yes, they have potential, but even in a system that has a knack for turning out pitching prospects, more fail than succeed. If you're lucky two of those guys are MLB pitchers with one of those two being a servicable reliever.

 

Without a clean bill of health and an unprecedented hit on prospects that rotation is going to need 3-4 more names in a couple years.

 

The lineup:

 

Swihart

S Travis

Pedroia

Devers

Chatham

Aneury Tavarez

Benintendi

Cole Brennan

Michael Chavis

 

Call me a donny downer but I don't see Pedroia being a healthy contributor at 37 years old. The only guys who have confidence being good at this point in time are Benintendi and Devers. Maybe you get some luck with guys like Swihart turning it around and perhaps a guy like Brennan emerges but you are still likely going to have 4-5 big holes on the field.

 

The bullpen:

 

Matt Barnes is the only guy on this team who will still be there. The only real potential I see for a shutdown reliever in our system is Tanner Houck, but that means you also have one more definite hole in the rotation by then as well.

 

Your payroll then is going to be $133. It could be more like arbitration rises.

 

By my calculations, you have the capacity to sign 3 big time free agents over the next 3 years to fill these holes. But you will be losing: Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, JDM, maybe even Price. You will also be losing Kimbrel, Thornburg, and Smith.

 

In the minors you might replace one of these guys with this group of talent. You might get real lucky in the draft and get one college guy who can fly up the system in the mold of Andrew Benintendi or Jacoby Ellsbury. But you're talking about replacing most of your team with almost nothing in the pipeline and the money to only add a few premium guys.

 

The cliff isn't a certainty, no one knows what is going to happen, no one knows how prospects will develop, future trades that will take place, who will sign an extension, and who will drafted. The "cliff" is just a different way of saying things don't look good. Without something extraordinary happening it certainly looks like the team from years 2021-2023 will be a lot less star studed than 2018-2020 will be.

 

There could also be a huge bounce. The cliff could be a very real thing but you also might have a stacked farm again by the year 2021 and ready to rebuild a monster sometime in the 2022-2024 years. Maybe we win a world series or two over the next couple years, stink for a few years and then are competitors again. We don't really know. But the "cliff" is a real representation of the long term outlook of the system. Yes, we don't really know what is going to happen but talking about the cliff is a much better representation of the future than just shrugging ones shoulders and going "IDK...they'll figure it out" We're looking at the team in 2-3 years and looking at our system and weighing that vs. past precedent of how many prospects pan out and how often FA pans out. Without a lot of good fortune, the team has a big capacity to suck in a few years.

 

At the end of the day, I'm not going to stress about a game, I'm going to enjoy the next few years, but the concept of a cliff is very real.

 

Well put.

 

(Note: we might still have JD Martinez in 2021, but only if he's not been doing too well.)