2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)

[moonslav59]

True - but the Sox still benefitted from unsignability in 2017 ... whom the rules hurt more (sadly - and kind of funny given the draft's alleged purpose) are the smaller market teams, who actually could throw a lot of money at this while other teams focused on big league talent.

 

The farm IS light years behind 2013-2015. That was inevitable. The only playoff team in the ESPN Top 10 for org rankings is #9. The Red Sox graduated a lot of the 2013-2015 group and traded the blocked ones for big league stuff ... which is how you'd want to do it, no? The 2017 draft was productive, now we'll see what 2018 does - and if any of these kids make leaps. It's exciting.

 

I'm not saying it wasn't inevitable, but we rate to be a playoff team for 3 more years, so the thought of getting back to top 10 is a long shot.

 

Also, if we still had Espinoza, Kopech and a few others, we'd still be top 10 despite making the playoffs for 2 straight years.

[sk7326]

I'm not saying it wasn't inevitable, but we rate to be a playoff team for 3 more years, so the thought of getting back to top 10 is a long shot.

 

Also, if we still had Espinoza, Kopech and a few others, we'd still be top 10 despite making the playoffs for 2 straight years.

 

Would we? You are then divining a Sale, Kimbrel, Pomeranz free world ... the international signing thing is a problem too, but more in that it reduces the pool of baseball players more generally. But the Red Sox still got a lot done last year, but of course there was the tragic ending.

 

Espinoza is a fascinating prospect, but he will now end up missing almost 2 full seasons without a great track record of turning the tools into outs.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying it wasn't inevitable, but we rate to be a playoff team for 3 more years, so the thought of getting back to top 10 is a long shot.

 

Also, if we still had Espinoza, Kopech and a few others, we'd still be top 10 despite making the playoffs for 2 straight years.

 

But the trades of Espinoza and Kopech had a lot to do with us making the playoffs last year.

[moonslav59]

I know this. I was just trying to add some light to the doom and gloomers who think the farm is a trainwreck.

 

It's not a "trainwreck", but we should not expect a major impact player to join the 25 man roster for 2-3 years. If we do get one, it will likely be only 1.

 

When it gets difficult to replace or re-sign departing and meaningful players, it sure helps to have some cheap, young and significant players to add to the roster.

 

One "problem" with our farm is that our best prospects are at least 2-3 years away.

 

I like our draft picks and international signings, but they are what they are: long shots. They are not as sure a bets as those Ben drafted and signed, when we had a different system and higher draft picks.

 

[moonslav59]

But the trades of Espinoza and Kopech had a lot to do with us making the playoffs last year.

 

No doubt.

[moonslav59]

Pom did not help us in 2016. Kimbrel was not great in 2016. Sale was not here in 2016.

 

All were a huge part of our winning 2017. Point well taken.

[sk7326]

It's not a "trainwreck", but we should not expect a major impact player to join the 25 man roster for 2-3 years. If we do get one, it will likely be only 1.

 

When it gets difficult to replace or re-sign departing and meaningful players, it sure helps to have some cheap, young and significant players to add to the roster.

 

One "problem" with our farm is that our best prospects are at least 2-3 years away.

 

I like our draft picks and international signings, but they are what they are: long shots. They are not as sure a bets as those Ben drafted and signed, when we had a different system and higher draft picks.

 

 

Chavis absolutely could impact the team by 2019, and late 2018 is not nuts (though unlikely)

[moonslav59]

My theory (and just my opinion here) is that Dombrowski was brought in here to help the big league club yes, but also to take all of this minor league talent amassed by the org and make sense of it. And - so far - Dombrowski has been right in terms of the kids he has backed and the others he has dealt.

 

So far, yes, although after 2016, one might have thought somewhat differently.

 

The Kimbrel deal looks much better after his great 2017 and the exploding contract costs of top closers on the open market.

 

The Pom trade looks much better after his solid 2017.

 

The Sale trade looks great, too.

 

The jury is still out, until after we see two results:

 

1) Did we win a World Series?

 

2) How did Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi and others do at a fraction of the financial cost?

[moonslav59]

Chavis absolutely could impact the team by 2019, and late 2018 is not nuts (though unlikely)

 

Yes, I should have said "most" of our top prospects.

 

Chavis does have a shot... much longer than Moncada, Margot and , Kopech, I might add.

[mvp 78]

According to Keith Law, as per post #27 on this thread:

 

"(The Red Sox) 2017 draft class was one of the best given where they picked, with three potential first-round talents coming in their first five picks."

 

He just can't build a farm tho...

[mvp 78]

It's not a "trainwreck", but we should not expect a major impact player to join the 25 man roster for 2-3 years. If we do get one, it will likely be only 1.

 

When it gets difficult to replace or re-sign departing and meaningful players, it sure helps to have some cheap, young and significant players to add to the roster.

 

One "problem" with our farm is that our best prospects are at least 2-3 years away.

 

I like our draft picks and international signings, but they are what they are: long shots. They are not as sure a bets as those Ben drafted and signed, when we had a different system and higher draft picks.

 

 

How many other organizations expect to have more than 1 guy become an "impact player" over the next 2-3 years?

[mvp 78]

So far, yes, although after 2016, one might have thought somewhat differently.

 

The Kimbrel deal looks much better after his great 2017 and the exploding contract costs of top closers on the open market.

 

The Pom trade looks much better after his solid 2017.

 

The Sale trade looks great, too.

 

The jury is still out, until after we see two results:

 

1) Did we win a World Series?

 

2) How did Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi and others do at a fraction of the financial cost?

 

Where would Moncada be playing this year if Pedroia was healthy? Is he better than Devers or Beni? Where would Margot play?

[moonslav59]

How many other organizations expect to have more than 1 guy become an "impact player" over the next 2-3 years?

 

The teams that have a top 5 farm system like we had 2-3 years ago.

 

Our farm produced Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Devers plus a bunch of prospects that landed us sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz all within a 4 year period.

 

While that is rare, and the system was different back then, it's hard to imagine anyone in our system being the next Betts or Devers within 2-3 years.

[moonslav59]

Where would Moncada be playing this year if Pedroia was healthy? Is he better than Devers or Beni? Where would Margot play?

 

I keep hearing the same argument. I'm tired of answering the same answer only to have it forgotten until the next time this comes up.

 

I was not against trading prospects. I loved the Sale trade despite the overpay.

 

I think we traded too many top prospects, too quickly.

 

I'm okay with where we are and what we did. I'm glad DD got players with 3 years of control not 1. I'm happy we have a 3-4 year window (that began last year) where we have a good chance at a ring, BUT I realize we sacrificed our chances or winning in the future.

 

I'm not going to just assume we will "rebuild the farm" and be all optimistic like some seem to be. I'm not all gloom and doom either. Our extended future certainly looks less rosy due to the trades. Our window looks much better.

 

As for where does Margot play? We are looking at signing an OF'er/DH to $25M a year. As for Moncada? We're looking to sign a DH to $25M. We are in need of a 2Bman. We could have moved Devers or Moncada to 1B and have the other at 3B.

 

We could use Kopech in 2-3 years. We could use Espi in 3-4 years.

 

I love having Kimbrel, Sale and Pom on the roster. I'm happy with the trades, but I realize what effect the deals are going to have down the road.

 

It's easy to say we "won the trades" before any of the guys we traded even have a chance to make an impact.

 

Time will tell.

 

If we win a ring or get really close a couple times, I won't complain about having a couple down years afterwards. I really won't. But, I'm not in denial (not that you are).

 

I do think we will have 2-3 "down years"- maybe not a cliff, but most likely not really top playoff contenders or ring contenders.

 

I realize staying at the Luxury limit or just below should keep us from last place, but it's hard to win with just free agents and middling in-system players.

[sk7326]

The teams that have a top 5 farm system like we had 2-3 years ago.

 

Our farm produced Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Devers plus a bunch of prospects that landed us sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz all within a 4 year period.

 

While that is rare, and the system was different back then, it's hard to imagine anyone in our system being the next Betts or Devers within 2-3 years.

 

(those teams all stink at the major league level presently)

[Kimmi]

And we will keep some and figure out the rest. We might even trade one of them! This ain't college basketball. If the Sox hit a cliff it will be their fault.

 

Yes, it will absolutely be their own fault if the Sox hit a cliff.

[Kimmi]

I know this. I was just trying to add some light to the doom and gloomers who think the farm is a trainwreck.

 

I know you're not talking about me.

[mvp 78]

I know you're not talking about me.

 

It's a sad state of affairs when MVP is the pollyanna.

 

My post wasn't directed at anyone in particular, it was more towards the overall undercurrent of thought that DD can't draft and everything is hopeless. I think it'll all work out ok.

[mvp 78]

I keep hearing the same argument. I'm tired of answering the same answer only to have it forgotten until the next time this comes up.

 

This whole board is and endless argument of the same 2 or 3 things. Also, I'm not sure people should be expected to remember what everyone's belief system is word for word.

[a700hitter]

This whole board is and endless argument of the same 2 or 3 things. Also, I'm not sure people should be expected to remember what everyone's belief system is word for word.

And if they think they remember, they are usually remembering wrong, through their confirmation bias filter.

[Bellhorn04]

This whole board is and endless argument of the same 2 or 3 things. Also, I'm not sure people should be expected to remember what everyone's belief system is word for word.

 

Truth.

[sk7326]

The teams that have a top 5 farm system like we had 2-3 years ago.

 

Our farm produced Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Devers plus a bunch of prospects that landed us sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz all within a 4 year period.

 

While that is rare, and the system was different back then, it's hard to imagine anyone in our system being the next Betts or Devers within 2-3 years.

 

In chats, Law noted the Red Sox are 24 but trending up ... the problem is that a lot of that trend is built on a very good looking 2017 draft ... but those kids will have to deliver results in pro ball. Right now the laurels are largely based on amateur pedigree and short season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Everyone thinks they have a good looking draft. The sox draft is predicated on pitching, which we all know can change in an instant.

[moonslav59]

In chats, Law noted the Red Sox are 24 but trending up ... the problem is that a lot of that trend is built on a very good looking 2017 draft ... but those kids will have to deliver results in pro ball. Right now the laurels are largely based on amateur pedigree and short season.

 

Well, it's encouraging he thinks we're "trending up" based on a draft with low picks and no comp picks and our most expensive international signing passing away.

[jacksonianmarch]

Trending up and trending down is an unreliable actual predictor of system health. If you’re a farm with prospects at the top of the minors, you’re trending down since the expectation is you’ll graduate them. If you’re an absolutely abysmal farm like SF but are staring at a top 2 pick, you’re trending up since you’re about to get a potential generational talent with that pick. Any team banking on their farm to be carried by the years most recent draft, especially when that draft started with a pick near the end, is hoping and praying more than actually staying in reality. I did like the sox draft, to be totally honest. It was a very pitching heavy draft with Houck and Scherff at the top. The thing I don’t get at this point, though, is the system love for Brannen. I get he’s an intriguing talent, but he’s effectively an athlete they hope will hit. Those guys shouldn’t be top 10 in a system until they start hitting unless the system is very weak.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, the sox got good grades in the draft due mostly to Scherff. Houck and Brannen got selected near their talent level. Scherff should have been a second rounder and getting him fifth was where a back end selecting team can make up ground. I don’t think the sox draft was overly ridiculous. I think DD just ensure he extracted the pick value without many reaches. That’s how draft experts love your draft.

[moonslav59]

Trending up and trending down is an unreliable actual predictor of system health. If you’re a farm with prospects at the top of the minors, you’re trending down since the expectation is you’ll graduate them. If you’re an absolutely abysmal farm like SF but are staring at a top 2 pick, you’re trending up since you’re about to get a potential generational talent with that pick. Any team banking on their farm to be carried by the years most recent draft, especially when that draft started with a pick near the end, is hoping and praying more than actually staying in reality. I did like the sox draft, to be totally honest. It was a very pitching heavy draft with Houck and Scherff at the top. The thing I don’t get at this point, though, is the system love for Brannen. I get he’s an intriguing talent, but he’s effectively an athlete they hope will hit. Those guys shouldn’t be top 10 in a system until they start hitting unless the system is very weak.

 

Trending also has to do with how many good "far-away" prospects you have in the system and what their ceilings appear to be.

 

Right now, the Sox farm is nearly all about "far away."

[jacksonianmarch]

It is. I also laugh at the people who rate the drafts. The sox got an A- and the Yankees got anywhere from a C+ to a B-. The sox got an A- because they drafted guys "who may have limited ceilings but certainly have high floors". That's for sure. The sox basically drafted from the baseball America manual. I think when you are restocking a farm system, that's a pretty solid way to go. Get guys who will remain prospects. They likely aren't going to be the next Mike Trout, but maybe they help fill out a roster or be dealt for something. I get the sox had to do that. They couldn't go boom or bust on every pick and risk busting when their farm is terrible. NYY did it completely differently. We grabbed a bunch of guys with promise and high boom or bust potential. We shall see how the pundits flesh out.

[Bellhorn04]

It is. I also laugh at the people who rate the drafts. The sox got an A- and the Yankees got anywhere from a C+ to a B-. The sox got an A- because they drafted guys "who may have limited ceilings but certainly have high floors". That's for sure. The sox basically drafted from the baseball America manual. I think when you are restocking a farm system, that's a pretty solid way to go. Get guys who will remain prospects. They likely aren't going to be the next Mike Trout, but maybe they help fill out a roster or be dealt for something. I get the sox had to do that. They couldn't go boom or bust on every pick and risk busting when their farm is terrible. NYY did it completely differently. We grabbed a bunch of guys with promise and high boom or bust potential. We shall see how the pundits flesh out.

 

And this is why I tend to stay away from all the detailed stuff about farm rankings and prospects.

 

All that really matters to me is that Dombrowski and company make an intelligent effort to re-stock our depleted farm.

[jacksonianmarch]

And this is why I tend to stay away from all the detailed stuff about farm rankings and prospects.

 

All that really matters to me is that Dombrowski and company make an intelligent effort to re-stock our depleted farm.

 

He did what he had to do. The Yanks have a deep farm system and we wont be able to keep all the players we are developing. Filling the ranks with multiple mid range prospects would have been dumb. If we dealt away our depth and had a bad year on the farm, then doing what DD did would have been smart. These guys who were drafted immediately shoot to the top of the position rankings in the system and give a bit of depth to a system that lacked it.