The Depth Argument

[moonslav59]

Even though he actually won a Cy Young, thinking of Porcello as a CY caliber pitcher makes me chuckle.

 

We don't need Cy Young from Porcello. He could give us a 2017 Pomeranz-type season. If we also get Pom to repeat the 2017 Pom, we're looking very good before we actually get to the true two CY-caliber starters- Sale & Price.

 

Yes, that's a lot of "ifs", but the 4 solid starters we have stack up nicely vs anybody elses, and if ERod returns mid season, we could be looking very tough as long as injuries don't bite us too hard.

 

Our pen could improve a lot and take some pressure off our starters, and we could rest them more than we did this year.

[Larry Cook]

We don't need Cy Young from Porcello. He could give us a 2017 Pomeranz-type season. If we also get Pom to repeat the 2017 Pom, we're looking very good before we actually get to the true two CY-caliber starters- Sale & Price.

 

Yes, that's a lot of "ifs", but the 4 solid starters we have stack up nicely vs anybody elses, and if ERod returns mid season, we could be looking very tough as long as injuries don't bite us too hard.

 

Our pen could improve a lot and take some pressure off our starters, and we could rest them more than we did this year.

 

In golf they have a saying, “hit and hope”.

 

Please tell me you are not advocating that flawed strategy with our starters for 2018?

 

We got our lightening in a bottle in 2013. That is never going to happen again.

 

Competition and depth are proven strategies!

 

Since dave has been extremely pernicious with our farm system, we must go the free agent route for more pitching!

[moonslav59]

In golf they have a saying, “hit and hope”.

 

Please tell me you are not advocating that flawed strategy with our starters for 2018?

 

We got our lightening in a bottle in 2013. That is never going to happen again.

 

Competition and depth are proven strategies!

 

Since dave has been extremely pernicious with our farm system, we must go the free agent route for more pitching!

 

I want us to try and get a solid SP'er. I think our pen is good to start the season. We can add to it, if needed mid season.

 

I'm not sure what the spending budget is, but I still don't see a legitimate clean-up hitter on our roster. Devers may fill the 5 slot nicely, but he might be better suited for the 6 slot. To me, that is our number one priority right now.

[mvp 78]

I want us to try and get a solid SP'er. I think our pen is good to start the season. We can add to it, if needed mid season.

 

I'm not sure what the spending budget is, but I still don't see a legitimate clean-up hitter on our roster. Devers may fill the 5 slot nicely, but he might be better suited for the 6 slot. To me, that is our number one priority right now.

 

Who? For how much?

[jacksonianmarch]

We don't need Cy Young from Porcello. He could give us a 2017 Pomeranz-type season. If we also get Pom to repeat the 2017 Pom, we're looking very good before we actually get to the true two CY-caliber starters- Sale & Price.

 

Yes, that's a lot of "ifs", but the 4 solid starters we have stack up nicely vs anybody elses, and if ERod returns mid season, we could be looking very tough as long as injuries don't bite us too hard.

 

Our pen could improve a lot and take some pressure off our starters, and we could rest them more than we did this year.

 

Porcello had a one year run of being out of his mind. He’s an innings eating back end of a rotation pitcher. Anticipating anything otherwise will leave you disappointed

[mvp 78]

Porcello had a one year run of being out of his mind. He’s an innings eating back end of a rotation pitcher. Anticipating anything otherwise will leave you disappointed

 

Back end of the rotation pitcher? He had the 43rd highest WAR of any starter last year.

 

There are 30 MLB teams. A 43rd highest WAR would be a 3rd starter at worst.

[notin]

Back end of the rotation pitcher? He had the 43rd highest WAR of any starter last year.

 

There are 30 MLB teams. A 43rd highest WAR would be a 3rd starter at worst.

 

Really, a #2 at worst.

[Bellhorn04]

Overall Porcello is a #3 starter. But his durability bumps up his WAR of course.

[mvp 78]

Overall Porcello is a #3 starter. But his durability bumps up his WAR of course.

 

If you aren't durable, you aren't a very good option as a #2 starter.

[Bellhorn04]

If you aren't durable, you aren't a very good option as a #2 starter.

 

Agreed, OTOH Porcello's durability isn't enough to make him a #2 starter.

[notin]

Over the last 3 years, Porcello has been worth 8.8 fWAR, which is more than any Yankee starter over that stretch except Masahiro Tanaka (9.6 fWAR). Sonny Gray has been worth 7.6 fWAR. Yankee target Gerrit Cole has been worth 11.1 fWAR in that span.

 

Porcello's 8.8 fWAR ranks him 26th among all starting pitchers in MLB over the last 3 years.

[bkzwhitestrican]

What was his fWAR by season? Just curious.

[Bellhorn04]

What was his fWAR by season? Just curious.

 

2015 1.6

2016 5.1

2017 2.0

 

+0.1 for rounding LOL

[notin]

2015 1.6

2016 5.1

2017 2.0

 

+0.1 for rounding LOL

 

Talk to Fangraphs

[Bellhorn04]

Talk to Fangraphs

 

No issue with FanGraphs, as an accountant I get the rounding thing.

[notin]

No issue with FanGraphs, as an accountant I get the rounding thing.

 

 

And as an engineer, I understand why the distribution you showed is actually more impressive than many will realize...

[moonslav59]

Who? For how much?

 

If we get JD, I doubt we get a decent SP'er. If we don't we should be able to use some budget space to get a decent 4/5 starter.

[moonslav59]

Porcello had a one year run of being out of his mind. He’s an innings eating back end of a rotation pitcher. Anticipating anything otherwise will leave you disappointed

 

I'm not expecting a 2016 season from Porcello. I have said many times somewhere between 2016 and his career norm (which is better than 2017) is not a far-fetched wish.

 

I'll settle for the career norm Porcello, which is maybe a low 2 starter high 3 starter by some standards or a low 3 starter by others. Having him as our 4th starter is a plus- not a minus.

[mvp 78]

If we get JD, I doubt we get a decent SP'er. If we don't we should be able to use some budget space to get a decent 4/5 starter.

 

Which starter tho?

[moonslav59]

More on Porcello: let's take away the durability factor that WAR gives for more IP. Let's look at the top 75 AL starters (5 teams x 5 starters) by setting the IP at 90. (Note: I am not taking away from the value of getting 200+ IP out of Porcello every season: that value is enormous most years and still very valuable for a 2017 Porcello-like season, but let's look where he ranks performance wise among all AL starters.)

 

ERA- (starter slot by groups of 15)

2017: 42nd at 102 (3rd starter)

2016: 4th at 72 (1 away from 1st)- (ACE)

2015: 60th at 118 (worst 4th starter)

2014: 28th at 89 (with Tigers) (low number 2 starter)

 

So, he's been an ace, a #2, a #3 and a #4 over the past 4 years--never a number 5. That averages to a bout a 2/3 type starter. There are 78 AL pitchers with 300+ IP from 2014-2017 (combined). Here's where Porcello and Sox pitchers rank:

ERA-

2. Sale 72 (ACE)

7. Price 80 (ACE)

16. Pomeranz 85 (Top number 2)

32. Porcello 94 (Top number 3)

37. ERod 97 (Number 3)

 

WHIP

1. Sale 1.02 (ACE)

5. Price 1.13 (ACE)

29. Porcello 1.24 (Bottom #2)

41. ERod 1.29 (#3)

48. Pomeranz 1.32 (Top #4)

 

Looks like Porcello is right between a 2 and a 3 starter.

 

Now, for the durability factor: it's pretty telling that one has to lower the IP to 80 or 90 to reach a sample size of 75 AL starting pitchers. The 37th ranked IP starter had 145 IP. That's the middle guy out of 75 SP'ers. Porcello put up about 60 more IP than the middle guy!

 

The 15 SP'er intervals and IP:

15. Vargas 179.2

30. Montgomery 155.1

45. Paxton 136.0

60. E Ramirez 100.2

75. Andriese 83.0

 

[moonslav59]

Which starter tho?

 

If we don't get JD?

 

We could get Darvish, but I doubt we do. I could see us going after Cobb or Lynn.

 

If we do get JD, I could see us trading JBJ, Johnson and Hembree for Danny Salazar.

[notin]

If we don't get JD?

 

We could get Darvish, but I doubt we do. I could see us going after Cobb or Lynn.

 

If we do get JD, I could see us trading JBJ, Johnson and Hembree for Danny Salazar.

 

Don't forget about Arrieta.

 

And Bradley alone should be enough for the oft-injured but mega-talented Salazar...

[moonslav59]

Don't forget about Arrieta.

 

And Bradley alone should be enough for the oft-injured but mega-talented Salazar...

 

What would we have to add to JBJ to get Archer?

 

Groome or Chavis plus Johnson or Beeks?

[cp176]

What would we have to add to JBJ to get Archer?

 

Groome or Chavis plus Johnson or Beeks?

 

ok - I like Archer

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, which of these choices look best to you?

 

A) Sign JD Matinez and keep everyone. No SP'er upgrade beyond minor league deals.

CF JBJ

DH JD

1B Moreland/HRam

5th SP Wright/Velazquez/Johnson/Beeks

 

Sign JD Martinez and trade JBJ for Danny Salazar

CF: Beni

LF: Martinez

1B: Moreland/HRam

DH: HRam/Brentz

5th SP: Salazar

 

C) Sign JD Matinez and trade JBJ, Chavis and Beeks (and more?) for Archer

CF: Beni

LF: JD

1B: Moreland/HRam

DH: HRam/Brentz

3rd SP: Archer

 

D) Sign Darvish and add no significant batter.

CF: JBJ

1B: Moreland/HRam

DH: HRam/Brentz (Chavis?)

2nd SP: Darvish

 

[notin]

What would we have to add to JBJ to get Archer?

 

Groome or Chavis plus Johnson or Beeks?

 

Given Archer's extremely friendly contract, I would imagine the bidding starts with Benintendi instead of Bradley. ..

[moonslav59]

Given Archer's extremely friendly contract, I would imagine the bidding starts with Benintendi instead of Bradley. ..

 

You're probably right. Is there any package not involving Beni, Devers or Betts you can construct?

 

Like JBJ, Groome, plus Chavis or Houck?

[notin]

You're probably right. Is there any package not involving Beni, Devers or Betts you can construct?

 

Like JBJ, Groome, plus Chavis or Houck?

 

The Rays are one of the teams where Bradley represents a step down defensively.

 

Would you trade Benintendi and Chavis for Archer? For Archer and his contract, if you're comfortable giving it up, it probably isn't enough.

 

Archer ranks 16 on fangraphs 2018 trade value list. Benintendi is #26. Bradley is #45th.

[moonslav59]

The Rays are one of the teams where Bradley represents a step down defensively.

 

Would you trade Benintendi and Chavis for Archer? For Archer and his contract, if you're comfortable giving it up, it probably isn't enough.

 

Archer ranks 16 on fangraphs 2018 trade value list. Benintendi is #26. Bradley is #45th.

 

Maybe I'm biased, but I think too highly of Beni to trade 5 years of him for 4 insanely cheap years of Archer. It's a close call, though.

 

If we signed JD and made this trade, I would not be upset. Keeping JBJ in CF adds some value.

[Larry Cook]

Which starter tho?

 

I am thinking Vargas. We go into spring trainIng with six starters and see if everybody is still healthy by opening day.

 

It is easier to trade a starter than acquire one.