Martinez vs Hosmer vs Santana

[notin]

1b: Santana

2b: M.Hernandez/Quiroz

SS: Bogaerts (will be replaced by Machado in 2019)

3B: Devers

LF: Benintendi

CF: Bradley

RF: Betts

DH: Duda/Ramirez platoon

 

I've changed my mind on Santana. Sure, he is a few years older than Hosmer and Martinez, but you can also sign him for less money, saving resources for Machado. I also like his patience at the plate and his defense was excellent last year.

 

Another interesting move would be Moustakas for 3b, move Devers to 1b especially if the Red Sox don't believe Devers can stay at 3b long term. In this scenario, the Red Sox would sign Moustakas over Santana.

 

Santana is actually only 16 months older than JD Martinez, not years...

[Bellhorn04]

I have not seen anything from front office to indicate Devers will not be our permanent 3B. Has anyone?

 

The Talksox brain trust will be making the call on that one.

[Jack Flap]

I have not seen anything from front office to indicate Devers will not be our permanent 3B. Has anyone?

 

For all of the fan chatter about the subject, I have not seen or read anything indicating that the team sees him as anything other than the third baseman of the future.

[notin]

I have not seen anything from front office to indicate Devers will not be our permanent 3B. Has anyone?

 

No because they'd be stupid to commit to him one way or the other at this point. ..

[moonslav59]

For all of the fan chatter about the subject, I have not seen or read anything indicating that the team sees him as anything other than the third baseman of the future.

 

They probably would not mention the fact that they are considering a move to 1B for Devers. They may have already decided to wait and see, at least until next winter, thereby making a Mostakas or Frazier signing a nonstarter. That's the route I would project they take, but who knows one way or another.

 

Personally, I'd like to see Devers get a chance to improve to a plus defender at 3B, but it might take at least a year or two. I really like our chances at winning a ring in the next year or two, so part of me is thinking we might be better served with Devers at DH or 1B and a better fielding 3Bman with some power manning 3B for a while.

 

Either way, I'm fine with the choice they make, unless we decide to sign Hosmer to more than 3 years.

 

1st choice: Trade for Stanton (DH/4th OF)/HRam at 1B/Devers at 3B

 

2nd choice: Sign JD Martinez (DH/4th OF)/HRam 1B/Devers 3B

 

3rd choice: Sign Santana (1B)/HRam DH/Devers 3B

 

4th choice: Sign Moustakas (3B)/HRam & Devers 1B/DH

 

I'd be okay with signing Morrison, but then I'd like to see a secondary deal better than what we have planned, if we do one of the above deals.

 

[a700hitter]

I looked at the game logs for 2017, and he stayed pretty steady for 4 moths, then he fell the last 2.

 

Here's his cumulative OPS every 1st and 15th of the month. (Note: as the season progresses the numbers go up and down with much more difficulty.)

 

.971

.931

.849

.931

.894

.937

.878

.918

.873

.853

.859

.818

(pretty consistent up to SEP 15th)

 

Now, the 8th and 22nd of every month

.786 (after 4 games)

.931

.931 (missed games from April 20-May 11)

.847

.945

.892

.897

.901

.906

.876

.864

.830

 

Duda played in 127 games this year. How many times did his OPS fall for...

 

9 straight games? 1 (end of SEP, which included one game going down .001 and another .002 with an 0-1 game) (5 for 37)

 

7 straight? 1 (which included a game he went 2 for 5, but his OPS was so high and .800 game OPS hurt him!)

 

6 straight games? 1 (1 for 19 stretch)

 

5 straight games? 1 (0 for 12 stretch that included an 0-1 game)

 

4 straight games? 2

 

3 straight games? 7

 

I just don't see many prolonged slumps in 2017, except for his last 11 games of 2017 (4 for 39). Or, his last 15 games at 6 for 52.

 

Cherry-picking a few others, I found...

 

15 games (Aug 17-SEP 4) 5 for 47 with 4 HRs

 

12 games (APR 16-May 21st with injury in middle and 2 zero for one games)

4 for 33 with 0 HRs (basically a 10 games slump)

 

10 games (Jun7 to Jun 17 including an 0-1 game and a 1 for 2 game with a BB)

3 for 32 (basically a 9 game slump)

 

6 games (JUL2-JUL9)

1 for 16 (hardly enough to call a real slump)

 

5 games (AUG8-AUG 14 including one 0-1 game)

0 for 15 with 2BB

 

Basically, from April to AUG 15th, he was pretty consistent, then he had two very bad stretches sandwiched around a 4 games stretch of going 5 for 14 with 3HRs

 

His last full season before 2017 was 2015. Here's his every 7 or 8 game cumulative OPS...

.855

.916

.896

.851

.834 (7 for 56 or .125 over 11 games, including one at 0 for 1 to go from .896 to .834)

.840

.934

.898

.878

.863

.813

.779

.772 (11 for 70 or .157 with 2 HRs in 20 games to go from from .863 to .772)

.770

.827

.822

.810

.805

.838

 

So, basically 2 bad slumps of 11 and 20 games with the rest being remarkably consistent and good.

 

I've seem much streakier hitters than Duda,

 

 

Not guys that you would want to sign as a free agent to increase and stabilize run production. Your numbers are sterile and only show increasing or decreasing OPS. Those numbers disguise the futility of the slumps. The numbers that show that impact would be the OPS during the slumps, not what the OPS decreased to. You did show the OPD during 2 slumps where he OPS’d at .125 over 56 ABs and .157 for 70 ABs. That is brutal. Edited November 25, 2017 by a700hitter

[Larry Cook]

Is Santana really a better option than Duda?

[moonslav59]

Not guys that you would want to sign as a free agent to increase and stabilize run production. Your numbers are sterile and only show increasing or decreasing OPS. Those numbers disguise the futility of the slumps. The numbers that show that impact would be the OPS during the slumps, not what the OPS decreased to. You did that in 2 places where he OPS’d at .125 over 56 ABs and .157 for 70 ABs. That is brutal.

 

Every player in MLB has "brutal" stretches like that. There were only 2. You made it sound like Duda was having slumps every 2-3 weeks that lasted 2-3 weeks every time.

 

I look at his numbers and see that he seems (probably) more consistent than most players with an OPS between .800-.850 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

I also didn't see that many very short bursts of hitting that skewed his numbers-- any more than what is probably normal.

 

I'm not about to go do an week by week OPS analysis. Watching an cumulative OPS go up and down while weighing the sample sizes from early season to late season shows all you need to know.

 

The guy kept a remarkably steady OPS almost the whole year. He slumped at the end and had a few short slumps in the middle, but from ...

 

game 26-39 his OPS was always between .926 and 1.007

 

game 40-54 from .878 to .930

 

game 55-69 from .876 to .926

 

game 70-84 from .879 to .920

 

game 85-99 from .869-.901

 

game 100-114 from .850 to .874

 

game 115- 127 from .818 to .861

 

He never went below .850 from game 25 to 107. After dipping to .846 after one game, he stayed above .850 for 9 more games. He went from .851 to .818 over the last 10 games of the season.

 

To me, this look like a very steady 2017.

 

2015 was pretty similar.

 

Game 26-39 .776-.855 (basically a 1 for 18 streak in early May w small sample size)

Game 40-54 .836-.974 (.836 up to .947 then down to .898)

Game 55-69 .844-.881 (hardly any ups and downs)

Game 70-84 .761-.831 (with a 3 for 34 slump)

Game 85-99 .754-.799 (hardly any ups and downs)

Game 100-114 .797-.837 (heated up to .837 then went 7 for 35 and .813)

Game 115-129 .797-.828 (between .797 and .814 until game 115-unreal steady!)

Game 130-135 .836-.853

 

Come on, look at most Sox players this year: they had unreal long slumps with very few hot streaks.

 

2014

 

Game 26-39 .719-.808 (early May had 5 for 27 slump)

40-54 .680 to .779 (very steady improvement from game 43 to 54)

55-69 .762 to .794 (no big ups or downs)

70-84 .799 to.841 (stayed steady then had big 3 for 3 game w two 2Bs & BBs)

85-99 .829 to .856 (very steady 15 games)

100-114 .833 to .873 (pretty steady)

115-129 .827 to .856 (very steady)

130-144 .817 to .827 (remarkably steady)

145-153 .817 to .832 (remarkably steady end to the season)

 

From game 70 to 153 he stayed between .817 and .873. He had one 7 games stretch between .856 and .873. The other 76 games, he was between .817 and .855.

 

I'd say the numbers show he has been very steady over his last 3 non-injury seasons.

 

Look at "steady Mookie:"

 

Game 27: .742

Game 32: .924

Game 46: .809

Game 55: .791

Game 64: .866

Game 74: .815

Game 80: .876

Game 89: .827

Game 102: .806

Game 133: .769

Game 153: .803

 

2016

Game 26 .717

Game 39 .742 (dipped to .696)

Game 54 .880

Game 69 .855

Game 84 .866 (dipped to .828)

Game 99 .873

Game 114 .914

Game 129 .923

Game 144 .892

Game 158 .897

 

If I did Bogey's or JBJ's game logs, you'd love Duda.

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Is Santana really a better option than Duda?

 

He's apparently a better defender and is more of an iron man.

 

The 4 year numbers are pretty close:

 

Santana 2681 PAs (2nd among 1Bmen)

L Duda 1813 PAs (23rd)

 

Santana .246 103 336

L Duda .238 94 252

 

Santana .363/.445/.808

L Duda .338/.480/.818

 

Santana .199 ISO/ 120 wRC+/ 16.4% K rate

L Duda .242 ISO/ 124 wRC+/ 24.5% K rate

 

Santana .351 wOBA/ +3.5 UZR/150/ -2 DRS

L Duda .350 wOBA/ +0.1 UZR/150/ +8 DRS

 

When healthy, Duda's number compare very closely to Santana's.

 

[a700hitter]

Every player in MLB has "brutal" stretches like that. There were only 2. You made it sound like Duda was having slumps every 2-3 weeks that lasted 2-3 weeks every time.

 

I look at his numbers and see that he seems (probably) more consistent than most players with an OPS between .800-.850 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

I also didn't see that many very short bursts of hitting that skewed his numbers-- any more than what is probably normal.

 

I'm not about to go do an week by week OPS analysis. Watching an cumulative OPS go up and down while weighing the sample sizes from early season to late season shows all you need to know.

 

The guy kept a remarkably steady OPS almost the whole year. He slumped at the end and had a few short slumps in the middle, but from ...

 

game 26-39 his OPS was always between .926 and 1.007

 

game 40-54 from .878 to .930

 

game 55-69 from .876 to .926

 

game 70-84 from .879 to .920

 

game 85-99 from .869-.901

 

game 100-114 from .850 to .874

 

game 115- 127 from .818 to .861

 

He never went below .850 from game 25 to 107. After dipping to .846 after one game, he stayed above .850 for 9 more games. He went from .851 to .818 over the last 10 games of the season.

 

To me, this look like a very steady 2017.

 

2015 was pretty similar.

 

Game 26-39 .776-.855 (basically a 1 for 18 streak in early May w small sample size)

Game 40-54 .836-.974 (.836 up to .947 then down to .898)

Game 55-69 .844-.881 (hardly any ups and downs)

Game 70-84 .761-.831 (with a 3 for 34 slump)

Game 85-99 .754-.799 (hardly any ups and downs)

Game 100-114 .797-.837 (heated up to .837 then went 7 for 35 and .813)

Game 115-129 .797-.828 (between .797 and .814 until game 115-unreal steady!)

Game 130-135 .836-.853

 

Come on, look at most Sox players this year: they had unreal long slumps with very few hot streaks.

 

2014

 

Game 26-39 .719-.808 (early May had 5 for 27 slump)

40-54 .680 to .779 (very steady improvement from game 43 to 54)

55-69 .762 to .794 (no big ups or downs)

70-84 .799 to.841 (stayed steady then had big 3 for 3 game w two 2Bs & BBs)

85-99 .829 to .856 (very steady 15 games)

100-114 .833 to .873 (pretty steady)

115-129 .827 to .856 (very steady)

130-144 .817 to .827 (remarkably steady)

145-153 .817 to .832 (remarkably steady end to the season)

 

From game 70 to 153 he stayed between .817 and .873. He had one 7 games stretch between .856 and .873. The other 76 games, he was between .817 and .855.

 

I'd say the numbers show he has been very steady over his last 3 non-injury seasons.

 

Look at "steady Mookie:"

 

Game 27: .742

Game 32: .924

Game 46: .809

Game 55: .791

Game 64: .866

Game 74: .815

Game 80: .876

Game 89: .827

Game 102: .806

Game 133: .769

Game 153: .803

 

2016

Game 26 .717

Game 39 .742 (dipped to .696)

Game 54 .880

Game 69 .855

Game 84 .866 (dipped to .828)

Game 99 .873

Game 114 .914

Game 129 .923

Game 144 .892

Game 158 .897

 

If I did Bogey's or JBJ's game logs, you'd love Duda.

 

 

 

 

 

i have already stated that his 2017 year was one of his surprisingly steady years before he was traded by the Mets,but you keep turning to 2017 as proof of something.

 

Fine. You have convinced yourself, but don’t be whining like a bitch, if we get that turd. I have watched this guy for a long time day in and day. He stinks and he is damaged.

 

Edit: His only value is the long ball. He is a base clogger who hits for a low average. In 2015, he hit 6 HRs from May 21st to May 29, 9 HRs from July 25th to Augus 2nd, and. 5 HRs in 3 games late in September. That is 20 of his 27 HRs in three very short spans of games. The rest of the season his power output was nil and his only value is the HR.

Edited November 25, 2017 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

Duda's not all that good, I think we all realize that. But he's an .800+ OPS guy against RH pitching, and if he comes at the right price, a first base platoon with him and Hanley wouldn't be the worst thing. Also, as moon has said, this could help keep Hanley from hitting the vesting option, which would relieve us of 22 million payroll for 2019.

[a700hitter]

Duda's not all that good, I think we all realize that. But he's an .800+ OPS guy against RH pitching, and if he comes at the right price, a first base platoon with him and Hanley wouldn't be the worst thing. Also, as moon has said, this could help keep Hanley from hitting the vesting option, which would relieve us of 22 million payroll for 2019.

If you like a guy with 3 short power spurts in a year. He is your man. I’d rather stay with Moreland , and that makes me gag.

[notin]

I'm not wild about either Duda or Moreland. But most important, if the Sox get either, they had better be secondary pieces behind another deal for a better player.

 

Much better player.

 

Really if the Sox get Duda/Moreland and no one else, that's status quo. And if they get Duda/Moreland and another big name, that likely means Bradley gets dealt..

 

 

So I'm ok passing...

[Bellhorn04]

If you like a guy with 3 short power spurts in a year. He is your man. I’d rather stay with Moreland , and that makes me gag.

 

He's not a big upgrade over Moreland, I would agree.

[moonslav59]

i have already stated that his 2017 year was one of his surprisingly steady years before he was traded by the Mets,but you keep turning to 2017 as proof of something.

 

Fine. You have convinced yourself, but don’t be whining like a bitch, if we get that turd. I have watched this guy for a long time day in and day. He stinks and he is damaged.

 

Edit: His only value is the long ball. He is a base clogger who hits for a low average. In 2015, he hit 6 HRs from May 21st to May 29, 9 HRs from July 25th to Augus 2nd, and. 5 HRs in 3 games late in September. That is 20 of his 27 HRs in three very short spans of games. The rest of the season his power output was nil and his only value is the HR.

 

You asked for more precise data, then called me a whining bitch for doing so.

 

I went beyond 2017. You ignored that.

 

I mentioned how just about every hitter fuels much of his numbers with several short hot streaks. You either choose to not believe that or ignore it. No counter evidence like I provided for "the steady" Mookie.

 

A .338 OBP over the last 4 years is nothing to criticize. He is more than just an HR hitter. He gets on base enough to outweigh the seemingly poor defense (the numbers do not support him being a poor fielder) and his slow base running (which again, are not wildly different than other 1B/DH types.)

 

I'd like to do better than Duda, but if we spend large on JD Martinez or Stanton, then he offers a cheap short term fix at 1B/DH. He adds instant power to a team that sorely needs it. His ISO numbers are top 10 in MLB. JD alone cannot fix out power outage weakness.

 

Other choices like Santana (almost the same BA as Duda over 4 years) and Morrison (worse BA & flash-in-the-pan worries) will cost more and get more years.

 

OK, Duda bunched up his HRs in 2015, but you choose to highlight his low BA (.244) and ignore his .352 OBP. Talk about "convincing yourself" . He's not a one trick pony. A .352 OBP would have led the Sox this year! But, of course, don't let the numbers get in your prejudiced ways.

 

BTW, in 2015, the year you showed how Duda bunched all his HRs and basically called him a one-trick pony, he had an OBP over .366 in 4 of 6 months. His worst OBP month (July) was also his best HR month, so he was doing other things like getting on base like a maniac during times hew as not hitting HRs. June was the only month he had low HRs (1) and a low OBP (.312).

 

Duda also had a .349 OBP in 2014 to offset his .253 BA. His HRs were very well distributed. So, it seems you convinced yourself he bunches up his HRs based on 2015 alone. (HRs by month: 4, 3, 5, 7, 7, 4), Yes, 14 HRs in a 2 month stretch, which is almost half of his HRs, but look at JD Martinez this year:8, 5, 8, 8, 16, which shows 24 of his 45 HRs in a two month period. How about Mookie's 2016 31 HR season? 4, 8, 4, 5, 9, 1? That's 2 months with 17 of his 31 HRs.

 

It's pretty common for hitters to bunch up HRs and hits. Duda bunched up his HRs in one of his last 3 full seasons. If that's all it takes to convince yourself he's too streaky, then there's not much more to say. I won't stoop to your level by calling you names, but a bunch come to my mind.

 

It seems like the more anyone uses data to prove you are wrong, the more you lash out.

 

[moonslav59]

Duda's not all that good, I think we all realize that. But he's an .800+ OPS guy against RH pitching, and if he comes at the right price, a first base platoon with him and Hanley wouldn't be the worst thing. Also, as moon has said, this could help keep Hanley from hitting the vesting option, which would relieve us of 22 million payroll for 2019.

 

Exactly. Dudaha s much better numbers vs RHPs, so he'd compliment HRam well.

At $6M-$8M for one year, he's a good pick. Even at $15M/2, I'd sign him.

 

Now, if we sign a 1Bman like Santana or Hosmer, then signing Duda really squeezes out HRam, so I'm not sure he'd be worth it.

 

My plan of signing Duda makes the most sense, if we sign JD Martinez or trade for Stanton. We'll need to look for cost effective options at 1B/DH. Duda offers a lot of power, decent OBP and a lot less financial commitment.

[moonslav59]

He's not a big upgrade over Moreland, I would agree.

 

We need power. Duda represents a big upgrade over Moreland in that area and is surprisingly better or close in many other areas.

 

4 years (2014-2017): 42 qualifying 1Bmen

(Note: these are not small sample sizes)

 

Power ISO & SLG%

 

.242/.480 Duda (Better ISO than Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Votto & others)

.199/.445 Santana (22nd in ISO)

.196/.438 Morrison (24th in ISO)

.187/.438 Moreland (29th in ISO)

.160/.449 Hosmer (38th in ISO)

(Duda places 9th in 1B SLG%, Hosmer 23rd, Santana 27th, Moreland & Morrison 31st)

 

 

Getting on base and hitting (OBP/BA)

.363/.246 Santana (8th in 1B OBP)

.350/.289 Hosmer (12th)

.338/.238 Duda (17th out of 42)

.324/.242 Morrison

.316/.252 Moreland

(Only Hosmer has a significantly better BA than Duda.)

 

Overall Hitting OPS/wRC+

.818/124 Duda (12th out of 42)

.808/120 Santana

.799/116 Hosmer

.762/109 Morrison

.755/98 Moreland

(Duda is light years better than Moreland on offense & power)

 

Base running (Not something I look for at 1B) UBR

1.9 Santana (5th)

-2.8 Hosmer (13th)

-4.3 Morrison (19th)

-5.5 Duda (23rd out of 42- about in the middle)

-7.4 Moreland (30th and worse than Duda)

 

Defense: UZR/150 & DRS (43 players with 1000+ innings)

6.4/19 Moreland (2nd in UZR/150 & 5th in DRS)

3.5/2 Santana (7th/22nd)

0.1/8 Duda (23rd in UZR/150 but 12th in DRS)

-1.3/-10 Morrison (27th/37th)

-1.9/-9 Hosmer (30th/36th)

 

I know that numbers and data don't show everything, and there's more to baseball than numbers, but these numbers don't lie. The fact that these numbers show Duda is better than just about every available FA 1Bman, but will cost way less and get way less years, makes him worthy of serious consideration.

 

 

 

[a700hitter]

You asked for more precise data, then called me a whining bitch for doing so.

 

I went beyond 2017. You ignored that.

 

I mentioned how just about every hitter fuels much of his numbers with several short hot streaks. You either choose to not believe that or ignore it. No counter evidence like I provided for "the steady" Mookie.

 

A .338 OBP over the last 4 years is nothing to criticize. He is more than just an HR hitter. He gets on base enough to outweigh the seemingly poor defense (the numbers do not support him being a poor fielder) and his slow base running (which again, are not wildly different than other 1B/DH types.)

 

I'd like to do better than Duda, but if we spend large on JD Martinez or Stanton, then he offers a cheap short term fix at 1B/DH. He adds instant power to a team that sorely needs it. His ISO numbers are top 10 in MLB. JD alone cannot fix out power outage weakness.

 

Other choices like Santana (almost the same BA as Duda over 4 years) and Morrison (worse BA & flash-in-the-pan worries) will cost more and get more years.

 

OK, Duda bunched up his HRs in 2015, but you choose to highlight his low BA (.244) and ignore his .352 OBP. Talk about "convincing yourself" . He's not a one trick pony. A .352 OBP would have led the Sox this year! But, of course, don't let the numbers get in your prejudiced ways.

 

BTW, in 2015, the year you showed how Duda bunched all his HRs and basically called him a one-trick pony, he had an OBP over .366 in 4 of 6 months. His worst OBP month (July) was also his best HR month, so he was doing other things like getting on base like a maniac during times hew as not hitting HRs. June was the only month he had low HRs (1) and a low OBP (.312).

 

Duda also had a .349 OBP in 2014 to offset his .253 BA. His HRs were very well distributed. So, it seems you convinced yourself he bunches up his HRs based on 2015 alone. (HRs by month: 4, 3, 5, 7, 7, 4), Yes, 14 HRs in a 2 month stretch, which is almost half of his HRs, but look at JD Martinez this year:8, 5, 8, 8, 16, which shows 24 of his 45 HRs in a two month period. How about Mookie's 2016 31 HR season? 4, 8, 4, 5, 9, 1? That's 2 months with 17 of his 31 HRs.

 

It's pretty common for hitters to bunch up HRs and hits. Duda bunched up his HRs in one of his last 3 full seasons. If that's all it takes to convince yourself he's too streaky, then there's not much more to say. I won't stoop to your level by calling you names, but a bunch come to my mind.

 

It seems like the more anyone uses data to prove you are wrong, the more you lash out.

 

2014 was Duda’s career year. It would be hard to point to anything negative from that season. I think his HR surges over a short period of games in 2015 was extreme. More than once that season (I think about 3 Times) he went 5-6 weeks without hitting HRs. He really was a nonfactor in the Mets lineup during his power outages that season. And you gloss over his last 2 months of 2017 as if it wasn’t a prolonged awful slump, especially after August 6th. He is a one trick pony. His OBP will not equate to run production as he is a slug on the bases. It will take 3 hits to score him if he walks. His value is the long ball, and I’ll pass on a guy that hits 20 of his 27 HRs in 3 spurts amounting to less than 3 weeks.

 

I said that you have convinced yourself, because you have not convinced me. This guy is not a direction DD should go for 2017 taking into account that he is streaky, can’t field or run and most of all he has chronic injuries. And for the record, I did not call you a whiny bitch. You have gone on and on about Duda trying to prove that he would be a good acquisition. If you get your way, and he turns out to be what I think he is, I don’t want to hear you whine like a bitch. That is far different than calling you a whiny bitch. You took that the wrong way.

Edited November 25, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

In 2014 and 2015, when Duda was not hitting Hrs, he was getting on base.

 

2 straight years at .349 or above. That was very significant and helpful to the team. You may choose to put him in a box by calling him just a Hr hitter and nothing else due to his low BA, but he walks a lot. Besides, his BA is not much lower than other options out there this winter .

 

His lower OBP (.322) this year is concerning, and certainly he could not do well for us, but looking at Hosmer, Morrison, Moreland and even Santana, there's not much difference on everything, except power, where Duda blows them all away.

 

BTW, Duda's 2015 season could be viewed as his career year- better OBP & SLG, but putting 2 years like that together and following them up with a .818 with 30 HR season this year is pretty darn impressive.

 

The .338 four year OBP is a big plus. If it wasn't for his September slump this year, he'd have had 3 full seasons over a .342 OBP.

 

He's not a one trick pony.

 

We need power.

 

We don't have much money to spend.

 

We need to avoid long term contracts.

 

I'm not convinced Duda is the answer, but we should consider him, especially if we spend large on a non 1Bman like JD or GS.

 

[a700hitter]

In 2014 and 2015, when Duda was not hitting Hrs, he was getting on base.

 

2 straight years at .349 or above. That was very significant and helpful to the team. You may choose to put him in a box by calling him just a Hr hitter and nothing else due to his low BA, but he walks a lot. Besides, his BA is not much lower than other options out there this winter .

 

His lower OBP (.322) this year is concerning, and certainly he could not do well for us, but looking at Hosmer, Morrison, Moreland and even Santana, there's not much difference on everything, except power, where Duda blows them all away.

 

BTW, Duda's 2015 season could be viewed as his career year- better OBP & SLG, but putting 2 years like that together and following them up with a .818 with 30 HR season this year is pretty darn impressive.

 

The .338 four year OBP is a big plus. If it wasn't for his September slump this year, he'd have had 3 full seasons over a .342 OBP.

 

He's not a one trick pony.

 

We need power.

 

We don't have much money to spend.

 

We need to avoid long term contracts.

 

I'm not convinced Duda is the answer, but we should consider him, especially if we spend large on a non 1Bman like JD or GS.

 

He was walked to avoid his power. His walk driven OBP did not result in run production for the Mets. I said it i my last post. After a walk, it took 3 hits to score him. He makes Moreland look like a gazelle. His value is HRs. His walk driven OBP was league strategy to avoid the HR ball.

[notin]

He was walked to avoid his power. His walk driven OBP did not result in run production for the Mets. I said it i my last post. After a walk, it took 3 hits to score him. He makes Moreland look like a gazelle. His value is HRs. His walk driven OBP was league strategy to avoid the HR ball.

 

You say all that stuff like it's supposed to be negative. Really that seems like pro-Duda arguments...

[a700hitter]

You say all that stuff like it's supposed to be negative. Really that seems like pro-Duda arguments...

The Hitters after Duda in the Mets lineup were generally very weak, hence the walks. Giving him credit for his OBP is like lavishing praise on a #8 hitter for a good OBP for getting walked in front of the pitcher. His walks didn’t enhance run production. A big part of the reason for that is his lack of speed. His value is as a HR hitter, but those are mainly limited to a 3 one week periods. I don’t see anything positive about that.

[Spudboy]

All the more reason to snag Morrison.

 

Not that he is a legitimate stud either.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Hitters after Duda in the Mets lineup were generally very weak, hence the walks. Giving him credit for his OBP is like lavishing praise on a #8 hitter for a good OBP for getting walked in front of the pitcher. His walks didn’t enhance run production. A big part of the reason for that is his lack of speed. His value is as a HR hitter, but those are mainly limited to a 3 one week periods. I don’t see anything positive about that.

 

I still think you're in on Martinez AND Duda. Giving Hanley a regular role all but ensures he will reach that very reachable option

[moonslav59]

He was walked to avoid his power. His walk driven OBP did not result in run production for the Mets. I said it i my last post. After a walk, it took 3 hits to score him. He makes Moreland look like a gazelle. His value is HRs. His walk driven OBP was league strategy to avoid the HR ball.

 

If they walk him on the Sox, it will lead to runs. If they pitch to him instead, he might hit 40HRs and have a .250 BA.

 

I'm just not seeing how a guy who forces pitchers to walk him out of fear for the long ball can be all that bad.

[notin]

The Hitters after Duda in the Mets lineup were generally very weak, hence the walks. Giving him credit for his OBP is like lavishing praise on a #8 hitter for a good OBP for getting walked in front of the pitcher. His walks didn’t enhance run production. A big part of the reason for that is his lack of speed. His value is as a HR hitter, but those are mainly limited to a 3 one week periods. I don’t see anything positive about that.

 

He maintained the same walk rate in Tampa, where he rarely hit below fifth in a lineup that outhomed the Sox.

 

I think you're making a lot of assumptions about his walk rate in New York. If anything, teams would be foolish to walk him so often given that he wasn't some elite slugging machine who was in scoring position the second he stepped up to the plate. He's a decent slugger and a moderate hitter with a good eye. He's what Kyle Schwarber is going to become.

 

If the goal is to sign Duda in order to prevent Hanley's option from vesting, allowing the Sox to give an extra $22million to Manny Machado, I can see the merits

[notin]

I still think you're in on Martinez AND Duda. Giving Hanley a regular role all but ensures he will reach that very reachable option

 

I think so, too. Plus one or two other names...

[a700hitter]

He maintained the same walk rate in Tampa, where he rarely hit below fifth in a lineup that outhomed the Sox.

 

I think you're making a lot of assumptions about his walk rate in New York. If anything, teams would be foolish to walk him so often given that he wasn't some elite slugging machine who was in scoring position the second he stepped up to the plate. He's a decent slugger and a moderate hitter with a good eye. He's what Kyle Schwarber is going to become.

 

If the goal is to sign Duda in order to prevent Hanley's option from vesting, allowing the Sox to give an extra $22million to Manny Machado, I can see the merits

As inexpensive as Duda is, it speaks volumes to me that the Mets FO (known to be notoriously cheap and strapped for cash) were willing to part with him for very little and they seemingly have no interest in reacquiring him. That confirms to me my observations of him over several seasons. I can see the merit in not wanting to be saddled with Hanley for another season, but I don't think Duda as a platoon player is the answer.

[notin]

As inexpensive as Duda is, it speaks volumes to me that the Mets FO (known to be notoriously cheap and strapped for cash) were willing to part with him for very little and they seemingly have no interest in reacquiring him. That confirms to me my observations of him over several seasons. I can see the merit in not wanting to be saddled with Hanley for another season, but I don't think Duda as a platoon player is the answer.

 

I'm not so wild about Duda either. But the funny thing is, your attempts to discredit him as a player really kept making him sound better and better.

 

Now out of Duda, Morrison, Alonso, and Bruce, all things considered, I could see choosing Duda, especially for one year in a platoon role. That the Mets didn't want him back then becomes irrelevant, since it's for an entirely different role...

[moonslav59]

If we end up using Duda as a DH vs RHPs only, he'd still be worth the money projected by MLBTR.

 

I'm assuming the rumors that HRam can play 1B FT next year are true.

 

If Duda ends up playing some 1B or even plays a lot of 1B, because HRam gets hurt or struggles, it won't kill us.

 

My scenario for signing Duda is based on us spending large on JD Martinez or Stanton and not trading JBJ. JD or Stanton would DH most of the time and play OF whenever someone needs a rest (maybe 20 games a year) or whenever someone gets hurt.

 

Assuming 20 games in the OF, that leaves 162 games at 1B + 20 games at DH + 8 games rest for JD or GS for HRam and Duda. We could sit JBJ or Beni vs some tough lefties, but we wouldn't do that to get Duda in the game more often. So, basically 190 games with no injuries for HRam & Duda. Duda could start vs all RHPs, and HRam would start vs all LHPs plus a few vs RHPs (30 games or so).

 

I know this opens a can of worms by denying HRam his 2019 vesting option, but he can still get 496 PAs and fall short. That's pretty close to what he got this year.

 

If we don't get JD or GS, then Duda is not my choice to be our biggest offensive signing. I would not sign a 1Bman like Santana or Morrison plus Duda. There's not enough PAs at DH/1B for 3 guys.